The Referendum.

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Tizer » 19 Jul 2016, 19:31

I thought something like this would happen. As you say, nothing gets thought out fully these days. We need somebody in charge of `implications and consequences'!

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Tizer » 20 Jul 2016, 09:34

British science is already feeling the bad effects of Brexit. Most projects last at least 3 years and other scientists and funding bodies in Europe now don't want to risk bringing in Brits when they don't know what's going to happen about Brexit in that time.

`UK scientists speak about Brexit pain' LINK
"Just weeks after the UK voted to leave the European Union, researchers are losing grants. BBC News has spoken to several research groups and small businesses who say they will soon have to scale down operations and lay off staff....."

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by cloghopper » 21 Jul 2016, 06:32

Good morning everybody. Since the forum has provided me with a lot of help over the last few days, I feel I must contribute something to this debate.
I was firmly in favour of Brexit for all sorts of reasons, and still am. It has not been, nor will it be, the disaster predicted by the remainers. Much of the media, both in the UK and abroad, are jam packed full of misinformation and disinformation.
My particular bugbear is the way immigration and emigration is handled. I was an 'illegal' immigrant here in Italy long before the UK joined the then Common Market (which is what it should have remained) until I was able to establish my right to residence based on other treaties (OCSE) to which both the UK and Italy were signaitories. My wife was an immigrant to the UK in the late 1950's. Put in simple terms, she had a job, an entry permit, and had to carry an Aliens ID Card issued by the Lancashire Constabulary.
The term 'unrestricted free movement' within the EU, and especially to Britain, is being bandied about by lots of people, including politicians, who evidently have no idea of the actual EU legislation on the subject. Free movement, within or without Schengen, means simply that you have the right to travel to any where within the EU and EFTA in search of a job, as a tourist, to climb a mountain FOR 90 DAYS. After 90 days, anywhere else in Europe, you have to either have a job and a residence registered with the authorities, private health insurance for a year or make voluntary contributions to the local system, and sufficient funds, about 6000 eurines usually, in the bank; or a state pension from your country of origin for at least the same amount.
Of course these situations are easily controlled because even locals have to walk around with 'papers', and are registered with local authorities.
So surely it is not beyond the capabilities of the Border Agency, or the Home Office, or whoever, to establish some sort of similar filters when EU citizens arrive in the UK?? ID Cards for everybody, including Brits?
best rgds,
cloggy

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Bruff » 21 Jul 2016, 08:30

‘….have no idea of the actual EU legislation on the subject.’

That’s because there is no EU legislation on the subject as it is for individual Member States to put in place whatever system they want with respect to accessing services etc.. There is simply the principle of no discrimination. What you mention there is not ‘EU legislation’ applying. It is national criteria that are applied to a country’s nationals and so under the principle of no discrimination, these are also applied to those from other EU member states seeking to live and work in that country. There cannot be any discrimination of other EU nationals.

We do not have ID cards in the UK; attempts to bring them in over the last 10-15 years have got nowhere in the face of civil liberty arguments among others. Incidentally, one of the most vocal opponents of ID cards being introduced here (so committed in their opposition they resigned their Parliamentary seat and fought the resultant bye-election on this single issue) is the current Brexit Minister David Davies MP.

We also do not have a fully contributory ‘benefits’ system and so other EU nationals can come here and immediately access the NHS say because UK nationals can do that whether they have ‘payed in’ or not. There can be no discrimination between UK and EU nationals. If the UK wanted to introduce a contributory element they could (Parliament being sovereign an’ all). EU nationals then would have to contribute.

Unfortunately, as with almost everything to do with the EU, not many folk in the UK seem aware of the overriding issue here: the principle of non-discrimination. These people believe that the reason EU nationals can come over and immediately access services without ‘paying in’, is because the EU legislation means they can and we have no choice. Absolute nonsense as just mentioned. The sovereign UK Parliament could enact legislation that required I don’t know, 90 days of contributions or some such. It would of course have to apply to UK nationals. Which is why Governments have not done it presumably.

So, we’ve cleared that misunderstanding up. It’s yet again another issue erroneously blamed on the EU when the solution lies entirely in the UK Government’s hands. Just shows what an absolute fiasco the whole exercise was given the chronic ignorance of the EU in this country.

Richard Broughton

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Bruff » 21 Jul 2016, 08:50

Pascal Lamy was interviewed on the radio this morning (aide to Jaques Delors and former EU trade negotiator and WTO gaffer). He was interesting. He was taking the Herr Dr Schauble’s line on Brexit, the one that I take and one I would hope the EU takes. And that is, we have voted to leave the EU. That was the question on the ballot paper: do we want to remain a member of the EU, yes or no? If folk think it’s something else that’s their problem; I don’t think it could be clearer.

As membership of the EU comes with membership of the single market and free movement then we have voted for none of this. How could it be anything else? Again if folk think it was, that’s their problem as it was pretty clear. The UK does not want to be a member of the single market nor have free movement. So why are we messing around and not enacting Art.50? There is no new relationship with the EU to work out. Not wanting access to the single market and not wanting free movement (because that is how we voted) mean we will simply be like NZ or South Africa or Togo with respect to the EU.

Do you think we’re getting cold feet?

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Tizer » 21 Jul 2016, 09:52

Richard, thanks once again for throwing light on these problems and claims. I heard the Lamy interview too and he couldn't be clearer. Back in April he was telling Michael Gove that it was `pie in the sky' to think that Britain could still trade freely with the EU after a vote for Brexit and he's still having to use the phrase to try and get the idea across. You've probably also heard the interviews with people in Rotherham which show the confusion over issues of immigration and sovereignty.

I have a friend with Irish parents who was born and raised in Blackburn in the 60s/70s, then married an Irish man and moved to a village in Eire. Recently I mentioned Brexit in an email message to her and got the following reply. It seems like someone in a little rural village in Eire knows more about our need for the EU than does the average person in England and Wales.

As for Brexit we have been following the vote and its repercussions here in Ireland for the economy, both good and bad. What struck me, reading newspaper reports and following it on TV, was the lack of knowledge in Britain about the EU and its functions amongst the population. I couldn't understand how a town like Ebba Vale in Wales could vote to leave when their town has benefited so much from EU investment. I can't see London being as generous.
As you said some voters saw it as a way to protest and some seem to think their vote wouldn't count, which I suppose is in part due to the first past the post system of General Elections. The UK voter is not used to referendums.
I was a little surprised by the UK Government not setting a clear statement regarding the vote, ie the majority needed in relation to the numbers voting etc. It just seemed a little lax.

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by cloghopper » 21 Jul 2016, 10:22

Bruff wrote:‘….have no idea of the actual EU legislation on the subject.’

That’s because there is no EU legislation on the subject as it is for individual Member States to put in place whatever system they want with respect to accessing services etc.. There is simply the principle of no discrimination. What you mention there is not ‘EU legislation’ applying. It is national criteria that are applied to a country’s nationals and so under the principle of no discrimination, these are also applied to those from other EU member states seeking to live and work in that country. There cannot be any discrimination of other EU nationals.

We do not have ID cards in the UK; attempts to bring them in over the last 10-15 years have got nowhere in the face of civil liberty arguments among others. Incidentally, one of the most vocal opponents of ID cards being introduced here (so committed in their opposition they resigned their Parliamentary seat and fought the resultant bye-election on this single issue) is the current Brexit Minister David Davies MP.

We also do not have a fully contributory ‘benefits’ system and so other EU nationals can come here and immediately access the NHS say because UK nationals can do that whether they have ‘payed in’ or not. There can be no discrimination between UK and EU nationals. If the UK wanted to introduce a contributory element they could (Parliament being sovereign an’ all). EU nationals then would have to contribute.

Unfortunately, as with almost everything to do with the EU, not many folk in the UK seem aware of the overriding issue here: the principle of non-discrimination. These people believe that the reason EU nationals can come over and immediately access services without ‘paying in’, is because the EU legislation means they can and we have no choice. Absolute nonsense as just mentioned. The sovereign UK Parliament could enact legislation that required I don’t know, 90 days of contributions or some such. It would of course have to apply to UK nationals. Which is why Governments have not done it presumably.

So, we’ve cleared that misunderstanding up. It’s yet again another issue erroneously blamed on the EU when the solution lies entirely in the UK Government’s hands. Just shows what an absolute fiasco the whole exercise was given the chronic ignorance of the EU in this country.

Richard Broughton"
Hello Bruff, I've no wish to enter into a protracted argument on the matter, but would refer you to EU Directive 2004/38 EC of 29/04/2004; particularly articles from 9 to 22.
best rgds,
cloggy

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Bruff » 21 Jul 2016, 13:35

My apologies as we seem to be at cross purposes. I know that there is a Directive at the European level on ‘free movement’. I was commenting on this point:

.. After 90 days, anywhere else in Europe, you have to either have a job and a residence registered with the authorities, private health insurance for a year or make voluntary contributions to the local system, and sufficient funds, about 6000 eurines (sic) usually, in the bank; or a state pension from your country of origin for at least the same amount.


My underlining.

As it is not a requirement so far as I know (and I may be wrong) for UK citizens to have private health insurance (as the health system here is residency rather than insurance based) and also not a requirement that UK citizens have a certain bank balance nor that UK citizens make voluntary contributions then under Article 20 of the Directive you quote, there can be no unequal treatment of the citizens of other Member States by requiring this of them when they look to move and settle as residents in the UK. That as you say ‘...anywhere else in Europe you have..’ all these things is not due to ‘EU legislation’ it seems to me, it’s due to national decisions. It is the UK’s national decisions that means we cannot demand this of other EU citizens because we do not demand it of our own.

This was discussed at length here when Mr Cameron was thinking about denying EU citizens access to certain services unless they had ‘contributed’ for 4 years. Fine. You can do that. But you’d have to do if for UK citizens too. And as I mentioned ID cards are a no-no here, with the Brexit Minister being their most vocal and committed critic.

But yes, there is a Directive on free movement and my apologies for not being as clear as I should have been in the focus of my response.

Richard Broughton

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by cloghopper » 21 Jul 2016, 15:38

no apology is required. We're saying the same thing from different perspectives.
kind regards,
cloggy.

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Sue » 22 Jul 2016, 07:16

So complex, but interesting. I am not a great one for political discussions but the referendum has certainly pulled out some interesting points
If you keep searching you will find it

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Stanley » 23 Jul 2016, 04:10

I've been in self imposed purdah for almost a week with no TV, radio, internet or newspapers and so I'm still getting up to speed.
I think P is dead right, reading our discussions should be compulsory. Richard, as usual, is a reliable source of information for which I thank him. He is a good point of reference for us.
Being a simple minded bugger I can't help wondering what is going on as my understanding has always been that the vote was advisory and had to ratified by a Parliamentary vote. The fact that we haven't heard a peep about this apart from the reports of legal actions to force a vote, I can only assume that either we have got cold feet or that a way is being sought to by-pass what I thought was a given. Knowing this lot I favour the latter.
In the absence of a proper written constitution we are prey to tactics like these and it confirms my belief that the main reason we have never instituted a written constitution is because it would impose restrictions on Parliament. There would be no question about who or what was sovereign and decided the course of action.
I shall absorb what is happening and get myself back up to speed!
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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Tizer » 23 Jul 2016, 10:29

One piece of news you might have missed is that Donald Trump has said he might not come to the aid of NATO countries if they were attacked by Russia. He wasn't quite as clear as that but then he's always difficult to interpret. But Trump watchers have taken it to mean that Trump's America might leave European countries to sort their own defence. Meanwhile, Russia has developed a ground-based cruise missile system with nuclear warhead which would be ideal for Putin to place on the borders with our Eastern NATO allies. The UK is still in NATO but its Brexit decision is nevertheless going to make it look like Britain and America want to abandon continental Europe. Putin is going to love all this.
Last edited by Tizer on 24 Jul 2016, 11:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Stanley » 24 Jul 2016, 03:59

Unintended consequences again. Did anybody really think this lot through?
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Re: The Referendum.

Post by jonesalice34 » 12 Aug 2016, 09:29

I am interested in this issue - property prices in the UK after Brexit. KPMG predicted that prices would drop by 5% nationally. But the contrary happened. The weak pound attracted foreighn investors and now we enjoy even higher prices. It seems like the interest rate drop will do the same https://tranio.com/united-kingdom/analy ... rket_5177/ and I will never move to my own house :confused:

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Tizer » 12 Aug 2016, 10:54

Note that we haven't had Brexit yet - we've had a referendum result in favour of Brexit but it will be some time before it actually happens. And the housing and rental markets are like supertankers, it takes a long time for them to slow down, speed up, or turn around. So we can't assume that any change in the market shortly after the referendum result is linked to that result. It's probably related to earlier factors.

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Bruff » 12 Aug 2016, 12:35

The thing about a fall in house prices is that it is generally a bad thing. The one exception is when they fall due to an increase in supply, but as we are not too keen on building houses in this country and have not been for a while (and this is entirely of our own doing), then it is unlikely increased supply will explain any fall post-Brexit (when it happens; as noted we haven’t Brexited yet).

Anyone hoping falls in prices post-Brexit would be a good thing will be disappointed. House price falls if they occur, will be due to folk stopping buying. This will because they lack the confidence to do so, because they perhaps feel they may lose their job, or they might earn less, or that prices might fall further. This might manifest in folk desperate to sell, for the same reasons. This lack of confidence here, is very likely manifest in their lack of confidence elsewhere, so they don’t spend in the high street, or in bars and restaurants, or on the home itself through improvements. This impacts business, who decide not to invest, hitting productivity. House prices falling means lenders take a hard line, deposit requirements likely rise, good deals on mortgages become rare as no lender wants to lend on a depreciating asset. All comes together, compounding, risking further damage, a spiral if you like, firmly downward and then stagnant. This is pretty well-understood; one simply looks to Japan.

Predictions of house price falls pre-referendum were greeted with glee in some quarters, particularly some who thought they’d be able to now get a house. Indeed, some leave campaigners said it was a good thing. But house prices fall for a reason and very, very few of them are good and a fall post-Brexit is no different There is a very good chance it will make owning one’s home an even more distant prospect for many.

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Stanley » 13 Aug 2016, 04:10

Housing is, as Richard points out, a very complicated problem. However, the main factor is that among lower income earners wages are not high enough to support saving for deposits or high mortgage payments. Recognition of this, and acceptance of the principle that society owes its lower paid members the chance of decent housing at an affordable price produced policies of Social Housing. This was very successful for a long time but was allowed to wither on the vine from about 1980 onwards when the Market became king. This is the problem we face today and it will take a massive policy change to alleviate the problem. There is no sign of this new dawn as yet.....
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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Stanley » 17 Aug 2016, 05:42

I've finished the series of articles on Housing.... Six in all Tiz!
I am getting worried about the deathly hush on the subject of Brexit, more particularly, no timetable for a debate and vote on whether to implement Article 50. Call me an old cynic but I wonder whether we are being lulled into false security and if the plan is to by-pass debate and implement exit from the EU by a Statutory Instrument which needs no debate or vote. Very handy for our leaders but where is the democracy in presenting us with a fait accompli?
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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Tizer » 17 Aug 2016, 09:03

Thanks for writing the Housing articles, Stanley. I've read the copies you sent to me and found them very useful, I now understand the background much better. I'm sure the articles will be well received, and it's very timely with all the current concerns about how we tackle the housing crisis. Coincidentally I've been reading Roy Hattersley's book `Borrowed Time' about Britain between the inter-war years and housing features in that too.

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Stanley » 18 Aug 2016, 03:22

Glad you liked them.... When you look at all the political capital that has been invested in Cameron's Catastrophe and the consequences that will follow it makes you wonder what would have happened if it had all been directed at a really clear and present danger like housing instead.
That leads you to wonder what the basic priorities of our politicians are.....
Interesting piece in Private Eye this week about the consequences of Brexit are for our MEPs. It seems that we may have to pick up the very generous severance pay and pension rights.....
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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Whyperion » 18 Aug 2016, 22:54

I presume Farage will forgo his allotment (or donate to Medical Charity?)

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Whyperion » 18 Aug 2016, 23:00

House Prices, I don't know where alicejones is , but prices are generally a function of expected future earnings from residing at that location ( with premiums for being near a nice school/ good transport links etc ). So yes, being locked to a specific location, depending how much 'sweat equity' one might want to put into a place that needs updating or conversion to a livable dwelling, or choosing shared ownership or similar, are still available as affordable (at a stretch), in some places around the united kingdom. Burnley looks affordable, if one has a decent paying job and dont mind properties that are a bit on the small side -new build from £78 a week apparently.

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Stanley » 19 Aug 2016, 03:29

Private Eye had a good piece about house replacement figures this week showing that the government is not only doing badly and failing with the numbers but playing games with the statistics as well so they can say there is an improvement. A cunning wheeze.....
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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Bruff » 24 Aug 2016, 10:10

''It seems that we may have to pick up the very generous severance pay and pension rights.....''

Not just the MEPs. Around 2700 UK nationals have in their time worked, or continue to work, for the EU institutions. Responsibility for honouring the pension entitlements of all these folk will have to be worked out as a part of Brexit.

One of the more mundane examples of what we'll need to work through, and there are likely many others of its ilk. All to add to the enormously complex and complicated work that needs doing on legislation, trade and defense, security, and environment. Biggest task ever undertaken by the civil service this will be. By a mile.

Boom time frankly for sharp, bright civil servants.

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Re: The Referendum.

Post by Stanley » 25 Aug 2016, 03:08

The thing is Richard, have we got any bright politicians? The impression I get at the moment is that the hiatus in the exit process is down to the politicians not knowing where to start. All this could be solved by a Parliamentary vote to ignore the referendum but this would be the biggest U-turn ever. There is no end to the mess Cameron got us into.... All the indications are that governance is paralysed. Perhaps they are beginning to realise the depth of the crap they have got us into.
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