Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Stanley]

[Sue]

Two more thoughts I’ve had ( must stop waking early and staring at the ceiling)...
IF this virus originated in wild animals, where are the countless bodies of dead wild animals. How come not even one species of wild animals have a significant head count ( because we would be collecting and disposing of the bodies pretty carefully wouldn’t we?)
And...
Will there be unsavoury governments who freeze dry/preserve this virus...to be used as a biological weapon in the future. No need for troops on the ground - just release “the weapon”.

Animals, indeed humans can be a reservoir for pathogens of all sorts that cause little harm to them, they have learned by natural selection to tolerate each other and in nature natural selection has killed off the ones that are affected, the ones not affected surviving. However when that pathogen gets into a new species there isn’t the same adaptation and the new species suffers. Without modern medicine that is exactly what would happen with Covid and humans, think of the large numbers not seriously affected, they would be the survivors that would live hand hand with the virus, acting as a reservoir for the infection. Remember of course this is not the form in the animal. IT mutated and developed the ability to infect humans it may not be a killer in the animal, which as I understand it was the research that was going on.

[Marilyn]

Yes...but...Sue...the original virus WOULD affect the original wild host in SOME way ( I am thinking things like Chlamydia in Koalas, causing blindness and infertility) ....( and I can’t spell this next word so forgive me) but Myxamatosis in Rabbits...we all knew a sick rabbit once it got going. ( we weren’t going to eat THAT rabbit)
Where are the sick animals? ( if we are to believe it had an animal origin)
There has to be SOME evidence.
Not every wild species would come out unscathed.

[plaques]

Some of the current theories offer up the idea that the covid-19 that we are seeing now is actually a mutation from a less severe coronavirus type that infected people before this pandemic outbreak. Being a relative mild infection it was largely ignored as a pandemic pathogen. If the route was via animals (mild) to humans (mild) there would be no deaths in either groups to leave a forensic trail.

[Tripps]

Speaking of rabbits - this has emerged in California in recently. RHDV2
I don't think it's the same as myxomatosis.

[PanBiker]

Sally does not supply face coverings for the NHS as she cannot produce the grade required for surgical use. She sews basic double layer ones for anyone that wants them.

I have found a source of washable filters that can go between the two layers, if they are left as a pouch if she is interested

Thanks Sue, she is now back in full production of scrubs and has about 20 masks in hand. She has also found a source for the filters if she needs to make any more.

[Whyperion]

Some of the current theories offer up the idea that the covid-19 that we are seeing now is actually a mutation from a less severe coronavirus type that infected people before this pandemic outbreak. Being a relative mild infection it was largely ignored as a pandemic pathogen. If the route was via animals (mild) to humans (mild) there would be no deaths in either groups to leave a forensic trail.

I dont really understand mutations, are they just lucky or a small protein chain change as a result of co-habitation with another organism (I know Bacteria exchange with themselves,viruses and presumably hosts and immune attack materials in the body and introduced from fungi/spores and so on, an assortment of genetic material but I dont know the method by which Viruses change (does anyone?))

[Whyperion]

One ponders how a virus ..can have a much worse outcome for males, older persons, those of an ethnic minority, those with a particular blood group etc.
Makes you scratch your head a bit...how did this virus get so darn clever?

Males tend to have a generally worse immune system, something to do generally with Y chromozones (man flu), likewise older persons do wear out in bits and pieces although treatments have differed and some deaths have been as a result of the wrong (or no) treatment. Today we are told that forms of ibuprofen might be safe and useful - different to what was thought earlier. Scientists are running a trial to see if ibuprofen can help hospital patients who are sick with coronavirus.
Ethnic Minorities ( well depends with land nation you consider where the minority is ). I am not certain that actually the uk report was helpful, it looked at rates of infection rather than outcomes of the infected. Given in the UK most minority groups work in particular industries/services and live in denser populations or share other social meeting areas then it is not surprising that infection rates might be higher.
The early blood group theories actually did not result in the expected outcomes but again intervention treatments can mask results, unless you want trials of 1000 persons of each group without interventions and see which ones die that wont be easy, although the suspected blood proteins and antibodies can be tried outside in the lab the results I last looked at might be inconcluesive (maybe more studies since end of March 2020).

plaques » Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:24 am
Some of the current theories offer up the idea that the covid-19 that we are seeing now is actually a mutation from a less severe coronavirus type that infected people before this pandemic outbreak. Being a relative mild infection it was largely ignored as a pandemic pathogen...

is there a specific idea which mutuation from what, is it single step or a dual step ? some reports claimed that different national populations had markers on the Cov-2 virus itself which identified which country it was in - which for quick transmission seems a little , well, wrong ?
the less severe could well have been the type a number of us reported prior to Christmas 2019. I suspect the virus changes indeed are two fold , one the silent incubation to infectious time - quiet interesting, do other viruses have the same characteristics, the second the very severe reactions or actions to generate huge numbers of virus particles quickly and with such damage to the host. I will show a picture later.

[Sue]

Yes...but...Sue...the original virus WOULD affect the original wild host in SOME way ( I am thinking things like Chlamydia in Koalas, causing blindness and infertility) ....( and I can’t spell this next word so forgive me) but Myxamatosis in Rabbits...we all knew a sick rabbit once it got going. ( we weren’t going to eat THAT rabbit)
Where are the sick animals? ( if we are to believe it had an animal origin)
There has to be SOME evidence.
Not every wild species would come out unscathed.

Yes but possibly so mildly it didn’t kill, think of all the asymptomatic people there are supposed to be. The damage to the animal may not manifest itself particularly in a damaging way. Perhaps blood oxygen levels are slightly lower so they are less energetic or can’t fly as vigorously Which may not be an issue in a balanced safe ecosystem.

It is detrimental to a parasite, which is what a virus is, to kill its host. If it does it loses its home. Remember this balance has come about possible over 100s or even 1000s of years. Things start togo wrong when the environment changes, eg lack of food, increase in a predator, climate change! Then you start seeing things change over a few generations.

I used to do a wonderful demonstration using packs of cards, where black and red were two versions of the same gene, and the spades and clubs were mutations that just existed in the population having neither a positive or negative effect. Its difficult to explain. But we shuffled the cards and dealt them out in twos to create the population in balance. Then we said that possessing the club gene was detrimental to eating and a third of the population died of starvation. We kept shuffling and dealing the cards taking out every third club. Eventually we got a new balance where the number of clubs was so low , very rarely did it alter the overall balance. Ie the occasional dead animal would not be noticed in the population as a whole, a bit like having a very low R number

This was all done to demonstrate a particular mathematical concept on survival of the fittest. We played around with the population of cards and added all sorts of selection pressures. It was great fun, got loads of graphs. However someone reported me for playing cards during lesson time ! I soon put them straight on that. I invited them in to play the game ! I nearly marketed it as selection in a action but decided it was too difficult to do.

[Sue]

Some of the current theories offer up the idea that the covid-19 that we are seeing now is actually a mutation from a less severe coronavirus type that infected people before this pandemic outbreak. Being a relative mild infection it was largely ignored as a pandemic pathogen. If the route was via animals (mild) to humans (mild) there would be no deaths in either groups to leave a forensic trail.

I dont really understand mutations, are they just lucky or a small protein chain change as a result of co-habitation with another organism (I know Bacteria exchange with themselves,viruses and presumably hosts and immune attack materials in the body and introduced from fungi/spores and so on, an assortment of genetic material but I dont know the method by which Viruses change (does anyone?))

A mutation is simply a change in the DNA sequence ACGT , bases called adenine guanine cytosine and thymine. Complex chemicals but by virtue of what they are chemical oxidation and other things may change one into another. ( I can’t remember which changes in to which ) Each amino acid in a protein is coded for by a specific set of three bases in the DNA Chain. Some amino acids have more than one sequence, so sometimes a base change may have no effect on the protein. Other changes may cause an entirely wrong amino acid to be in the protein sequence. These changes are random and occur about 1 in a million times when the DNA is copied ie when a cell divides or the DNA is copied in the cell when proteins are made. There are more complex issues with bacteria and viruses but it is still do with the change in this sequence of bases.

The amino acids present determine how a protein twists and has a shape. The shape is very important.( we talked about lock and key a bit since) Eg the shape of haemoglobin protein allows it to pick up oxygen easily, in sickle cell anaemia only one amino acid has changed due to a mutation that can now be inherited. The shape of sickle cell haemoglobin is the wrong shape to pick up oxygen efficiently. It also distorts the shape of the red cell to a sickle shape. In reference to my above answer, carriers of sickle cell are ok until they are in a low oxygen environment then they suffer acute oxygen deficiencies. Sufferers have a more serious and acute condition. The sickle shape also blocks blood vessels causing acute pain for one thing. Its all to do with this one mutation ie one change in the amino acids present in the protein

The disease is in all countries but appears higher in the tropics because of malaria. The parasite likes normal red cells. People with the sickle cell characteristic do not suffer from malaria and thus their numbers increase. In my above example clubs could be normal haemoglobin and spades sickle cell. Put malaria in the situation and the good gene reduces in numbers, still there but lower numbers. In countries without malaria, the people with normal haemoglobin are in greater numbers than those with the sickle cell haemoglobin

[Whyperion]

nice to know life (or death) is a random chance of randomized chances.

[Sue]

nice to know life (or death) is a random chance of randomized chances.

It certainly is.

[Whyperion]

One days stats do not a trend make, but for the uk as a whole, deaths up, new infections up. Has someone given up bothering ?

[Sue]

One days stats do not a trend make, but for the uk as a whole, deaths up, new infections up. Has someone given up bothering ?

I have given up listening

[Whyperion]

If blame goes anywhere, does Public Health England Know what it should have been doing or saying ?
"Data from MHA shows 42% of its staff members who recently tested positive were not displaying symptoms.

Nearly 45% of residents who had a positive test were also asymptomatic"
(MHA is a private care home company). Overall it is thought that 7% of care home workers and 13% of care home residents have tested positive.

Tests were not arranged in April and May generally for the care home sector, with Public Health England saying it followed guidence (should it not be setting it ??)

[Stanley]

I'd recommend you all get hold of a copy of PE and read MD's latest piece on Covid. The man talks common sense and knows what he is talking about. Have a look at this LINK.
News this morning that the test samples sent to the US in the panic about under-testing have had to be done again, reason not specified.
About 50,000 samples..... Oops!

[Sue]

There are so many issues surfacing, which no doubt you will think ‘told you so’ . However I think we are mow entering to blame game which makes me very angry. For weeks its why no quarantine, now its why quarantine. That is just one e ample. The whole thing is a mess but underneath all of this is Brexit which is going to make a bad situation even worse. I think it all went really wrong when Boris was ill and nearly died. All the key players ill together. However its not an easy problem. Covid is throwing up scientific and disease issues that no one could forecast and now the implications are they should have been planned for. THAT I do not like. How could anyone know about the possible genetic links to certain individuals and their propensity for the severity of the disease.

I won’t be discussing politics or figures any more, its tedious and makes me very very angry at the way politics is conducted in a very accusatory tit for tat method and its all about tripping people up rather than sound logical discussions and analysis of problems issues and solutions. I shall just stick to the science. Always happy to deliver my A level genetics and mutation lessons ( what I can remember of it )

[Tizer]

At the beginning of this pandemic people were asking why more infection swab testing wasn't being done and I pointed out that poor accuracy of the tests available meant there was a danger of making wrong decisions based on the results. We've heard little about that since...until now suddenly it rises to the surface. Now we hear that the head of the Test and Trace programme has told the Health Select Committee that 20% of positive cases may be missed by the test. Committee Yesterday's Radio 4 `More or Less' is essential listening. More or Less The first 10 minutes or so are devoted to an expert saying something similar but that the figure is more like 30% So 20 to 30% of tested people could go away thinking wrongly they are not infected and then pass on the virus to others. I'm not saying we shouldn't be doing the testing but we must keep in mind that it's far from perfect.

[Tripps]

nothing more than an attempt to create a second wave during the summer months.

Is it possible that it is intended soon to announce that face coverings must be worn in public and they want to ensure that a supply is available?

Looks like that was the plan?
Covering in public - not attempting to create a second wave of infection that is.

Face coverings.

[Stanley]

"politics is conducted in a very accusatory tit for tat method "
It was always so Sue in our confrontational style of politics.

[PanBiker]

If the government now admit that face masks are beneficial in helping to stop the spread of the virus why weren't they compulsory from March onwards? We might have a few less than 40,000 deaths if we had adopted what just abut every other country had done.

[plaques]

A new NHS coronavirus contact-tracing app should be in place by the end of the month, a minister has said.

Business minister Nadhim Zahawi said the app - which was trialled in the Isle of Wight - will "be running as soon as we think it is robust".

Well that sounds positive enough mind you august is being mentioned as the date when it will be fully integrated into the tracing system. Of course it will now increase our 'capacity' to keep control of this beastly little nuisance. I like the More or Less (Tizer's post) on the term capacity. "I have the capacity to get up at 6 AM and exercise but never do". Keep this in mind whenever you hear the Ministers talk about capacity.

[Tizer]

Tony Blair was on Today this morning criticising the handling of virus testing. I'm content to listen to his views on politics and Brexit but he'd be wise to avoid venturing into science and technology issues. He confused the two types of virus test. For example, he said we were now developing and starting to use antigen tests - he's wrong, the antigen tests have been in use since the start of the pandemic, it's the antibody tests that have been recently developed and are just going into use.

To be fair, the terminology is wonky, the whole issue is complicated and the tests are often confused. Do a google search for covid antigen test and you'll probably find most of the results are for antibody tests, which doesn't help understanding. In the early stage of the pandemic I wrote about the confusing names used for the tests and it's got even worse with the entry of the antibody tests. At first I thought it might be better to call the antigen and antibody tests infection and immunity tests respectively but then realised people would assume if they got an `immunity' test result that was positive (i.e. showed the presence of antibodies) they would be protected against covid-19 and could ignore social distancing, carry out nursing, caring etc. This is not the case, we don't yet know if people become immune and how long any immunity would last. Perhaps the simplest way to name the tests would be the `got it' and `had it' tests!

[Tripps]

Unusually - I heard the Tony Blair interview this morning. My initial thought was - in what capacity is he speaking, and to tell hm he'd better write to his member of Parliament with his suggestions. I think he's missing being the boss. I don't think (from memory ) that he confused the two tests. He defined them quite clearly, and correctly. I think the terms 'antigen' and 'antibody' for the tests are OK, but you need some small measure of intelligence to understand it all. That's where the problem lies.

The time the tests are given in the infection cycle, and the possibility of false positives and negatives in both tests complicates matters. I read ages ago the Vietnam would not let a Brit fly home until he had two tests several days apart which were negative. They seem to have handled the whole thing better than we have.

Politicians have dissembled for ages about tests - disguising the real reason for not testing, which has been that we didn't have the tests available, or the capacity to process them.

We are told that following a test, Alok Sharma who was ill at the despatch box, does not have the virus. I hope he's tested again in a few days, and we see the results. I don't think 'hay fever' makes you sweat like he did. Assuming he feels better now, will he now stop isolation after the test and come back to work, and which brave 'honourable' members will want to be near him.

I wouldn't.

[Whyperion]

Perhaps the simplest way to name the tests would be the `got it' and `had it' tests!

Seems reasonable, for all diseases. Can the point of not being infectious be determined ?