POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

The only point I would modify Tiz is that it isn't 'going wrong', it has gone wrong!
Initially I put it down to incompetence but I now think it's due to a gamut of causes which include cupidity, a general lack of principle and a break down in ethics. The current Credit Allowance problem is simply a failure of management compassion and a rigid adherence to a badly drafted rule. It's bureaucracy gone mad.
The way the electorate is being treated over Brexit is a prime example. The needs of the public and business are secondary to the political shenanigans. They have forgotten that they are there to serve us! In the background, the money interests are lobbying hard and I am convinced that they want to see a hard Brexit giving scope for financial manipulations and more leaching of money uphill to the Lords of the Universe. Exactly the same principles apply to Austerity. The unwashed masses need reining in, they were having it too good! Back to the 19th century!
The tragedy they don't see is that if these forces prevail they will destroy the social structure that supports their lives..... It's a bloody mess!
Later.... 'Sources in the government' are talking about T May proposing raising the offer to the EU on the cash settlement. Figures bandied about are from £20 to £40billion. Is reality beginning to strike home? The same sources are talking about Davies resigning.... That's all we are getting, rumour and counter rumour. This is no way to run a government....

[Stanley]

Lots of reports about the cash settlement and rumours that the initial offer is going to be North of £35billion. No confirmation of this and the rabid Leavers are in a froth about it.
But what is more significant to me is news that for the first time since 1945 we have not got a judge at the International Court of Justice in the Hague. (LINK) Ever since WW2 the UK has been a key player at the UN on the grounds of our achievements. This is the first sign that plucky Britain 'punching above its weight' might be waning in influence. Make up your own mind about the reasons but factor in political and economic uncertainty, persistent downgrading of our military resource and the growth of other nations globally. It's significant that an Indian Judge has taken our place..... This is a continuing trend exacerbated by the fact that nobody can understand the logic of our leaving the EU and note our weaknesses. The Security Council used to be pre-eminent in the UN but now the Southern nations in the General Assembly are pushing back with increasing effect. I don't regret it, it's about time common sense prevailed. This is the 21st century, not the 19th!

[Stanley]

See THIIS for a BBC report on today's budget. Deck chairs and Titanic come to mind. Don't hold your breath.....
Later news concentrates on the fact that Spreadshit Phil is under fire from his own party.
Boris congratulates the new Indian judge on the international court of justice. Does anyone think he meant it? It's widely seen to be a sign of waning influence and chaos in the Foreign Office.
Ireland is proving difficult. They are threatening to block any agreement that leaves them with a hard border. Problem is that the only obvious way for this to be solved is unification of N Ireland with the South and that's an even bigger minefield!

[Stanley]

Well, you've got to hand it to Phil! From his point of view it was a triumph, politically he has done enough to silence his critics and economically he has given the surface impression of all is going to plan and steady as she goes. Of course, when you look a bit deeper, and I'm not referring to all the fine print that will be embedded in the Budget book, it is a very bad picture.
Many of the 'initiatives' are aspirations only and those that are definite promises, like 300,000 houses built a year, aren't going to happen until the mid 2020s. The others, like NHS funding are too little too late. Some like the stamp duty relaxation will miss their targets as all it will do is help increase the price of houses as demand is stimulated negating the small relief of the stamp duty.
The real meat came not from the Chancellor but from the OBR who have revised their predictions for growth, debt and employment and this without taking into account a bad Brexit. All of these are downgraded to what would have been crisis levels in the 20th century. The Mail says he has 'brought austerity to a screeching halt", that is a lie and complete balls. The effect of the OBR forecast is that there is no relief from austerity and falling standards for at least 15 years, That's right, 15 years and remember that is posited on a relatively painless Brexit.
I liked Corbyn's response and reflected that I have been vilified by some of my friends for supporting him and pointing out that people can grow into jobs. He was direct, accurate and passionate and put his finger exactly on the real-life effects of the proposals. Remember that this response was almost off the cuff as he couldn't know all the details before standing up, only the gist. In the circumstances he did well and I warmed to him.
Once all this comes into perspective in the cold light of day, no one in poverty is going to feel any better and the bottom line is that this is what brings politicians down in the long run. The fate of this government now depends on the results of the next few weeks Brexit negotiations. The only hope I can see for them, and it's a slim one, is whether the EU throws the Tories a lifeline....

[plaques]

Listening to one of the captains of industry on OBR's downgrading of future growth he said that you couldn't put too much reliance on their forecasts since they had been wrong so many times in the past. He should have really stopped at this point but went on to say that previous forecasts have been far too optimistic and largely based on what happened in the past after a slump. Now that they rowing back their forecast to what is actually happening they are accused of being too pessimistic. The truth is that making any long term forecasts is a mugs game but given that the exact terms of the Brexit are unknown and that we have had years of under investment in research, manufacturing and training there's no way we are going to spring back to life in the short term. Spin, spin and aspirations are not going to lift us out of this hole.

[Stanley]

Exactly right P I reckon. This started happening a long time ago as the 'new economics' and focus on markets and outcomes allied with deregulation became the preferred option, a no-brainer really as it meant more profit for the accountants. This spread to institutions and government and McKinsey type micro engagement and assessment of 'profitability' was applied to systems. 'Under-performing' sectors of the business were outsourced to the lowest cost provider who achieved a profit by either lowering standards, under-paying 'contractors' (the labour force because the providers had outsourced tax and benefit liabilities by designating them self-employed) or simply under manning the tasks. Hospital cleaning led to higher levels of infection. Outsourced car parking to higher charges to patients. The Civil Service is in trouble at the moment because they have outsourced their pay and pensions administration to a contractor and salaries aren't being paid! If they can get something as fundamental as their own remuneration wrong what hope is there for the rest of us?
Meanwhile, the commentators and chattering classes seem to be waking up to the full import of the dire productivity, growth and employment figures. It's no exaggeration to call the outlook disastrous and that is even with a 'good' Brexit which is looking very unlikely.
The slow-burner in all this is that globally, the UK emperor has been seen to have no clothes. For years we have bluffed our way into the higher echelons of power blustering about 'punching above our weight' and at the same time presiding over decline at home in our society, institutions, standards of public life and even the armed forces. Austerity has driven the last nail into that coffin but this hasn't yet dawned on our leaders, the more rabid of whom are still basking in the last rays of Empire and 19th century dominance.
On a purely political note, notice how opposing parties have toned down the rhetoric that favours an imminent General Election. The last thing they want is to have to be seen as having anything to do with this dog's breakfast or what is coming. If there were to be an election the only politically astute way to go would be to demand a Crisis Coalition to administer the next ten years at least. But no need to do anything when the Tories are so obviously on a course of self-destruction. There is no miracle solution!

[Stanley]

Not a lot of hard news but reading between the lines the EU haven't thrown Theresa a life-line. They have reiterated that UK needs to come up with acceptable solutions to all three major points, Citizenship, Ireland and hard cash, in the next ten days. If we don't do this the meeting of the 27 states will not ratify the agreement and there will be no shift to trade talks.
It looks like a Gordian Knot! Anyone fancy untangling it?

[plaques]

Have you noticed the commentary by the Brexiters has moved on from promises, £350M per week, ditching EU laws, stopping immigration, flag waving aspirations down to "the people voted for it". Nothing to do with us its all your fault.
The 'Gordian Knot', we all know have to unravel this knot it just needs a very sharp sword. The immediate problem is that the heads that would roll by using it are those who will profit most by the ongoing chaos. For the ordinary plebs the mantra is still austerity, austerity, austerity.

[Stanley]

Do you ever get a funny feeling when you look at how wealth is distributed and paintings and diamonds are sold for obscene prices that perhaps we've been stitched up?
I have watched the Tory policy trajectory and it encourages this upwards movement of wealth and facilitates it by driving the proles back into the 19th century. Shouts of 'Politics of Envy' and 'He's a Leftie!' Not really, I am looking at evidence and interpreting it very reasonably..... Brexit is another massive stride on that downwards path and we've been screwed!
Later.... News that Ireland is pushing for the UK to remain in the Customs Union and the Single Market to avoid a hard border. They are threatening to veto any move to trade talks when the 27 meet. That looks like a bit of a bummer! 'Events Dear Boy....'.

[plaques]

Towards the end of the day I like to review some of the YouTube news items but must admit my normal attention span for a single item is about 8 mins Max. Last nights viewing included a review with Thomas Piketty Link. a far longer session 27 mins (didn't actually listen to it all but will go back to it). Having read his book I was more interested in how he came across in real life. I must admit he was far more flexible on wealth and the movement of capital than the press reports portrayed. His main concern was the inequality that capital accumulation caused if if wasn't recycled back down the line to lift everybody's standard of living. Buying diamonds and paintings as an investment doesn't add to the overall prosperity unless you are prepared to make them available for everyone to enjoy. Autocracy and dictatorship only serve to stretch inequality until democracy breaks down. No simple answers to today's problems but with Trump and Putin vying for the position of world wide Tsar things don't look too good.

[Tizer]

All this arguing over staying in the single market and customs control and the Irish borders - the easy answer is stay in the EU! Come on you politicians, we elected you to represent us by taking advice from those who best know the tehnicalities then acting on it, not pandering to our ancient fears of outsiders and loss of control.

Remember what the Brexiteers were telling us before the Referendum? Turkey was going to become an EU member and then we'd be flooded with Turks taking our jobs. As Bruff pointed out, the truth was that Turkey could never be an EU member unless we, as a member, withheld our veto (and anyway it was not likely to become a member for a long time and now looks even more unlikely to do so). Once we've left the EU we don't have a veto, so we can't prevent other countries joining the club. We could see Turkey or some other country joining the EU and then they would be able to vote against treaties and trade deals between us and the EU. The Brexiteers shot themselves in the foot.

[Stanley]

They shot us as well!

[Stanley]

I am reminded once more of Harold's dictum; "Events Dear Boy". We had Merkel in trouble because she can't get a governing coalition together now Ireland has joined the club, there could well be a vote of no confidence today and this is a contributing factor to the threat of a veto coming out of Dublin as it is being used in part as a domestic political tool. The bottom line is that even if we can present a satisfactory offer on other matters to the EU, Ireland has a veto and isn't buying the UK position that Ireland's borders can't be rationally debated until trade talks start.
Davies is in trouble for redacting large chunks from the documentation he was ordered to hand over to the Brexit Committee on the grounds of 'confidentiality'. Others suspect it is because they contain damning criticisms of the process. (LINK to a very penetrating analysis from Laura Kuenssberg.)
Expect a report today from the BofE on the readiness of the banks to face tough economic times.
Expect more diversionary tactics about an engagement.....

[Stanley]

Leaks this morning that the cash payment has been jacked up to an unspecified figure and this might be enough to break the log jam on trade leaving the other problems for later discussion.
With one bound, Theresa was free! But at what cost in political terms. The hard line Brexiteers will be outraged.

[PanBiker]

Not out of the doo doo yet Stanley, the other members will still not move to trade talks until the border issue in Ireland is sorted. Tiz is right, the best outcome for this shambles would be to rescind article 50 and bow to superior forces but this lot havn't the bottle to do it for the good of the country. Speaks volumes for what they are in it for, but I think we already know that.

[plaques]

With all the huffing and puffing the figures being quoted are probably not everything we will have to pay. There will be numerous 'ongoing' costs like pensions and club fees that will be dribbled out in the small print. These could add another 25% to the total if they were to presented as a single lump. As we have already seen these costs will remain hidden until they are leaked out with a " I didn't realize that statement". No wonder David Davis wants to keep his leaving document secret.

[Tizer]

We're getting to a critical point with the latest North Korean missile launch. The news media are headlining the claim by NK that such a missile could reach anywhere in the USA (and presumably, therefore, anywhere in Russia). However there is another danger created by the latest launch - instead of flying way over Japan and into the Pacific it hit the sea a relatively short distance from Japan's western coast. This behaviour is upping the stakes and putting Japan at greater risk. A small error in the targeting could result in a missile hitting Japan. Even when they land in the sea there is the possibility of hitting a ship. That's a low probability but a great hazard in terms of triggering off military action.

[Stanley]

Ian, you are quite right. I was being slightly ironic....
P, you're right as well, we will never know the full cost because ongoing commitments we must service aren't clear yet.
Tiz is right as well. There is no doubt they have a viable rocket now. Question is, when do they test it with a warhead..... Biggest danger is Trump going over the edge and his tweet supporting UK Far Right demonstrates that he is ignorant and unstable. Would his generals allow him to start Armageddon?
Later.... The BBC American correspondent has said that the most likely explanation of Trump's tweet was to reinforce his stance on building his Great Wall which is being debated at the moment. His point is that we let radicals in and are being ruined by this. Surprising that he should attack his 'best friend' but he did and, give her due credit, she has refuted his claims. A Twitter storm is developing.....

[Tizer]

Surprising that he should attack his 'best friend' but he did

That behaviour is exactly what people who have known him for a long time have been warning us about. Like the man who was ghost writer for Trump's famous book and some of those who have been ditched from Trump's team. They all say one minute you're his greatest pal and the next his worst enemy.

Would his generals allow him to start Armageddon?

`Can US generals say 'no' to Trump if he orders a nuclear strike?' BBC

[Pluggy]

[rant]
Probably not very politically correct but the world would be a better place if the two sabre rattling oafs wiped each others countries off the face of the planet....

We've been in bed with America far too long and dozily followed them into their ill conceived, unwinnable wars. Enough already.

[/rant]

[PanBiker]

Problem there Stephen is that they would take everyone else with them as well.

Seeing as we failed to have revolution on a number of suitable occasions which would have sorted out a lot of our domestic problems I have long thought that there could be way to stop all continental wars. There should be a fighting arena built as a floating island in international waters, the leaders of any nation who wants to pick a fight should be transported and dumped there and they should be made to fight it out themselves with knives and cudgels, no need to involve the common man. There wouldn't be many takers I reckon.

[Pluggy]

Intelligence suggests NKs misilles wouldn't reach western Europe. Of course the blonde oaf's nukes would probably get here. I wouldn't put it past him. How about we break off relations until they elect a president with some evidence of a brain ?

Theresa May certainly doesnt make the cut for a great or even mediocre leader. But there's no contest when you put her alongside the Yank oaf.

We had a civil war, wouldn't that pass for a revolulution ? We were briefly a rupublic in the years afterwards. Then we caught on that Cromwell was a king in everything but name.....

[Stanley]

In pre medieval times it was quite common for conflicts to be decided by a contest between champions.
I have often wondered about America at war..... As far as I can remember the last conflict they were successful in was the war in the Pacific against the Japanese.
The last time society got an advantage was in the aftermath of the Great War which saw the birth of democratic socialism in the UK. WW2 helped again and until the 1980s we were slowly dragging concessions out of the establishment but that was all thrown into reverse by the growth of market based economics and its failures like 2008. We are now going rapidly downhill and so is the establishment but they haven't recognised it yet. They have damaged institutions like Law, Justice, health and social care and even the armed forces to the point where we are looking increasingly like a spent force.

[Tizer]

As far as I can remember the last conflict they were successful in was the war in the Pacific against the Japanese.

And that's because we were helping them!

Did you hear the editor of `GQ' magazine being rude about Jeremy Corbyn this morning on `Today'? The editor criticised him for not having a `hinterland'. The Today presenter had to ask him what he meant by hinterland. The answer was the JC couldn't tell them any books he'd read recently or films he'd seen. I imagine the Labour leader was not impressed by the GQ staff and their questions and was playing them along, especially if they'd asked about his hinterland!

I liked his way of hitting back at Morgan Grenfell when they said he was a threat to banks. He agreed. LINK

I can see Corbyn doing well in a future election by getting the votes of all those who are fed up with the status quo, rather like Trump did in the USA. If he's lucky he'll be able to simply sit back and let the voters come to him.

[plaques]

We had a civil war, wouldn't that pass for a revolulution ? We were briefly a rupublic in the years afterwards. Then we caught on that Cromwell was a king in everything but name.....

In Cromwell's time the civil war was already raging but amongst the war lords. Cromwell sorted this lot out with his Model Army. Charles 1 claimed absolute power, via God of course, so he had to go. Cromwell's big mistake was that he didn't have a big clear out like other dictators, eg: Tsars, Robespierrer, Stalin, Hitler and many others.

As far as I can remember the last conflict they were successful in was the war in the Pacific against the Japanese.

And that was because they dropped two atomic bombs. They didn't ask anybody's permission, didn't consider 'collateral' damage, a few million people that's all. Once they have withdrawn into Trump's fortress America who is to say they won't do it again?

The editor criticised him for not having a `hinterland'.

I must admit I would have been baffled by this question. If he means wasteland away from the main centres of civilization I would have said "Pendle".