POLITICS CORNER

[chinatyke]

I think you two may be falling for the con trick. You are being diverted from the realities. Trump is a racist misogynistic bully who is a danger to both China and the UK, May is fawning on anyone who bolsters her position. Meanwhile the clock ticks and we slide down the slope to the reality of the EU verdict on the proposals.....

And what do you suggest we do about it?

I for one am active in opposition politics at branch and constituency level and well aware of the issues and the reality.

Cant speak for China of course in his wonderful one party state system.

Other political parties are allowed in China as the leader of the Liberal Party in Nanning told me one day. He hastily added "Of course, we have no power." It is funny when you see them on TV having a government vote and 4000 people put up their hands but they get on with running the country as they see best without wasting time squabbling amongst themselves. Personally I admire the system.

[Stanley]

I think you're right P. Trump and Brexit are all about one class getting their hands firmly on the levers of power.
Ian , what I am suggesting is that we all forget about arguing about different systems and get on with our own knitting which is what you do as an activist.
We were doing well in The EU. What happened in the UK is that by ignorance and indolence the electorate managed a situation where the reactionaries could get control. We now have to pay the consequences and start the long march up the hill again!
All I can do within my abilities is make my views clear.
Will May be Leader for long? Will there be a general election before March? Sit back and watch the train wreck......

[Stanley]

Interesting bio piece about Dominic Raab on R4 this morning. HERE'S Just one report from the Guardian after he said that food banks were used by people who had episodic overdraft problems. There is more if you go and look for it.... Not a very attractive character.

[Tizer]

I've never known a time when for so long I've been saying every day "Surely, things can't get any worse?". The author Robert Harris in a recent interview in The Times made close comparisons between today's political figures and those in the days of ancient Rome. I note that he's also commented on the Referendum red bus claim for £350 milion a week for the NHS by leaving the EU: "With the cost of Brexit to the Exchequer now estimated at £60 billion, this is unquestionably the biggest lie in British political history".

[Stanley]

"With the cost of Brexit to the Exchequer now estimated at £60 billion, this is unquestionably the biggest lie in British political history".
That's only the cost to the Exchequer. I fear the overall cost to the country may dwarf that. Certainly more likely than the golden age forecast by the Brexiteers....

[chinatyke]

There were mega-costs joining, mega-costs whilst in, and mega-costs leaving, sounds like a good thing!

[Stanley]

Not quite accurate China. It isn't as simple as that.
Senior Tories are lobbing grenades into Downing Street from all sides. T May has managed to get both sides damning her Third Way. Lots of speculation about the votes in Parliament but I suspect that she will get very narrow majorities simply because the MPs are paralysed by indecision and not clear about what the EU will have to say. The only thing that they do know is that the Tory Party could be split completely, lose power and jobs will be at stake. A|s always they are more likely to vote for the status quo and postponer the eventual reckoning.
As Tiz says, we have run out of descriptions for what has happened to our system of governance. I can't remember anything as bad as this and my memory goes back over 70 years.....

[plaques]

Justine Greening's call for a second referendum is typical of Conservative woolly thinking. Of course Downing Street rejected it, what else could they do! A second referendum would have two possible outcomes.
1 Some people would accept all the lies and deceit of the first referendum, others from some displaced sadistic logic may also vote Exit. This would leave Mrs May in exactly the same position she is in now with a divided party in charge of a shambles of negotiations.
2 Alternatively, the majority could vote Leave. This would mean Mrs May doing a volte-face, no problem there, but still with a divided party and now in a position of negotiating a re-entry from a worse position than she is in now with the 'Leave'.

Her calling everyone's bluff and going for a General Election is even worse. Reflecting back to the two possible outcomes.
1 People could again accept all the lies and deceit and vote the Conservatives back in. The Brexit negotiations would still be with us but it would give her a free hand for more austerity and more dismantling of the NHS and other nasty socialist programmes that 'unpeople' enjoy. This may appease some Conservatives but the internal divisions would still be there and the war would continue.
2 She loses her majority, even with the bribes to the DUP. Not only would some Conservative MP's lose their salaries and pensions but it could open the door to Corbyn and a Labour Parliament. According to the current received wisdom this would bring the country to its knees. Perhaps these people need to look round a little and see that we are already down on our knees and heading for a totally prone position.

[Stanley]

Good analysis I reckon P. As I suspected, the Tories had a regroup and managed to 'win' the votes, just. This is only temporary, nothing is solved, nothing is made clear. The EU opinion on the White Paper is to come. I am not holding my breath.
Later.... the government and the country hang in an uneasy balance as negotiations proceed in Brussels and May survives two votes by a majority of only three and what does the government propose to do? Go on holiday 5 days early..... I know we keep saying it but it's unbelievable! You couldn't make it up.

[Stanley]

I'm sat listening to the latest opinion and news and it struck me that the 'negotiators' in Brussels must be having to inform their EU counterparts of each change to our proposal as it is modified by the House. How can any meaningful negotiation succeed in conditions like this? They must be wondering when they will get the final version. When do they reach the point where they pull the plug and trigger a disaster? We must be getting close to this.
The final straw could still be the Irish Question.

[Tizer]

Justine Greening's call for a second referendum...

It's worth reading this article `Brexit: How would a second EU referendum be held?' by Tom Edgington of BBC Reality Check. As you all know, I'd rather avoid a 2nd referendum and have Parliament do it's job properly. There's a different way of reading Edgington's article - forget second referendum and think how the problems he raises confirm that a referendum was wrong in the first place. Referendum

I heard Liam Fox this morning on the Today programme saying they'd got to get on with Brexit because `the people instructed us to do it'. This is a fallacy that we keep hearing from the Brexiteers. They are misleading us. The people don't `instruct' the government to do anything - they expect them to run the country effectively.

[plaques]

and what does the government propose to do? Go on holiday 5 days early...

This is about par for the course. The Conservative mantra is and always will be: negotiate in secret. This is the trouble with the EU negotiators they keep banging on about transparency. They don't seem to appreciate that democracy only applies to the privileged few. The remaining lower orders will be told what has been decided when the time comes. Part of the sugar coating of our Exit strategy will be so called Free Trade deals which are in truth are nothing to do with trade but all about Investment opportunities. Often these will allow foreign corporations to sue governments for policy changes that could affect their future profits. All done in secret except for the thousands of corporate lawyers who will beavering away in the background all to our disadvantage.

[Stanley]

I heard Fox on R4 Tiz. You're right of course about ultimate responsibility, the referendum was only advisory and if you take the abstainers into account it passed on a minority vote.
P , again a good assessment, I agree with you.
I note another 'keep the show on the road' vote won on a majority of 7. The reality of this pantomime won't be revealed (partially) until October. Way too late to do anything about it.
May crowing about employment figures. To be more accurate it's the fall in people being paid benefit. How many of those jobs are producing a living wage?
I note also that things aren't improving on the High Street. Debenhams look very flaky.
Later, I have Just been listening to Anna Soubry on R4 Today talking a lot of common sense about the present situation. I think we should all listen to her.....

[Tizer]

I wonder what Boris Johnson will say in his resignation speech?

More `fake news' from Trump. Pretending that he made slip of the tongue when he implied that he trusted the Russians more than his own intelligence services.

[Stanley]

You've see it now..... With friends like that May doesn't need enemies.....
Interesting that just when Labour are nearing a possible election the spectre of anti-Semitism is raised again. Expect the right wing media to pile in on that one!
I repeat what I have already said, this mess is all about the schism in the Tory Party not what is best for the UK. Way past time when it should have been made an all party matter!
As for Trump..... he is a tragic figure when it comes to the bare bones of his character but he has the power to drag us all down. The worst POTUS in history?
Nelson Mandela would have been 100 today. Five years since he died. What do you think his opinion would have been about the state we are in?

[Stanley]

Dominic Raab goes to Brussels today for what could be his baptism of fire. Funny that on this day the EU have issued an advisory notice to all members to start preparing for the disruption that a hard Brexit will cause, Raab is issuing advice as well on that subject. I heard a Dutch official yesterday detailing the preparations that are being made like recruiting and training more customs staff. I think it was Liam Fox who was asked what we had done about this and he ducked every repetition of the question. I suspect the answer is zilch!

[Tizer]

I listened to the Dutch official too and noted his comment that the Netherlands is second only to Germany in trade with the UK and has had to recruit an extra 1000 customs officials because of the potential (and getting more likely) problems caused by Brexit.
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Mrs Tiz keeps an eye on Martin Lewis's Money Savings Expert web site and passed me a link to a recent poll they carried out titled `How do you feel now about Brexit?'. Of course we have to remember that this poll is based primarily on people who use the site and their contacts but it is very well-known and has about 15 million who use it at least monthly. Also 12 million subscribers to Lewis's weekly `Money Tips'. About 25,000 votes were received in the poll. If the `population' of the poll is selective then the main bias would be towards folk who make an effort to look after their money.

The first thing you see The Brexit Poll is that of those responding the Remainers far out-numbered the Leavers. The second is shown immediately by those very long bars - most Leavers (72%) were `Happy to leave, unhappy with the negotiations' while Remainers (85%) were `Unhappy to leave, unhappy with the negotiations'. It confirms what we feel is happening - most Brits, whatever their leanings, are unhappy with the negotiations.
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Here's another problem area for Brexit...
`Publishers warn of Brexit threat to record exports' LINK
Particularly this: `Mr Daunt said that over the past 30 years UK publishers have created a dominant position in securing English-language rights to books sold across Europe. He added: "You have to remember the UK publishing industry is deeply entwined with Europe. Macmillan may seem to be British, but it's owned by a German conglomerate. Penguin is the same. It is part of the Bertelsmann group, also in Germany. The whole question of the management of rights after Brexit, depending on what agreement we have, could become much more difficult. It may become easier for those rights to be funnelled not through London but say India or the US." Of course, this will apply to many other business areas which have to manage rights and where companies are often owned by parent companies outside the UK.

I notice that little has been said about this week's announcement of the EU's new major trade deal with Japan. We'll lose out on that too after Brexit. This is on CNN... LINK
The European Union and Japan signed a huge free trade deal on Tuesday that cuts or eliminates tariffs on nearly all goods. The agreement covers 600 million people and almost a third of the global economy. It's also a major endorsement of a global trading system that is under increasing threat from protectionism. It will remove tariffs on European exports such as cheese and wine. Japanese automakers and electronics firms will face fewer barriers in the European Union. The dismantling of trade barriers stands in stark contrast to the approach taken by President Donald Trump, who has imposed tariffs on a range of foreign goods and is threatening more action. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, hailed the agreement as the "largest bilateral trade deal ever." "Relations between the European Union and Japan have never been stronger," he said in a written statement. "Geographically, we are far apart. But politically and economically we could hardly be any closer." Japan and the European Union traded roughly €129 billion ($152 billion) of goods last year, according to EU data.

[Stanley]

Did I also hear that the Netherlands and Belgium lose out most if we crash out?
Rabb in his press call with Barnier.... He sounded more like a schoolboy talking about the result of a football match than a negotiator and instead of emphasising cooperation talked in terms of 'getting the best deal'. Why should England tremble?

[Tizer]

I note that `chaotic Brexit' has begun to replace `hard Brexit as the most feared consequence of the EU referendum. I first noticed it when the Dutch politician (see above) told JH on `Today' that "We don't worry about a hard Brexit. It's a chaotic Brexit that will cause the big trouble". Since then I hear chaotic Brexit mentioned often. It's as if our lot hadn't realised it could be chaotic!
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Trump has invited Putin to the White House and didn't even bother warning the intelligence services and others. The Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats, was told by an interviewer on live TV.... LINK The Democrats are appalled.

Talking of Democrats...it's not long now to the next US election. Who are they going to field against trump? I don't see them moving any big guns into position. No names being bandied about, at least none that I've heard. Whoever they put forward will have to be white and male - that's the only way they can win over some of those Trump supporters.

[plaques]

Talking of Democrats..

The majority of the Republicans have moved so far to the right as to be almost outside the normal standards of democracy. The basic doctoring being "everything for us, nothing for the rest". The exact opposite of Corbyn's Labour Party slogan. The Democrats have become what used to be termed 'moderate Republicans'. For many working Americans the choice is between extremism or what you have had in the past but still going downhill. Bernie Sanders is probably the only true democrat but as we saw when Old Labour became to New Labour ie: Conservative, the last thing they want is someone who will take their toys away. With $billions tide up in lobbying for the Republicans its going to be an uphill battle for Sanders.

[Tizer]

Trump today threatens to bash China with taxes on the full $500 billion of imports into the US. He also claims the EU and China are rigging the world financial markets against the US. Perhaps Trump himself will bring about the end of his Presidency by causing the US to collapse!

[Stanley]

Anyone would be better than Trump....... Republican or Democrat. All the diodes down my right side hurt.....
Tiz, I note 'chaotic' as well. As I see it any form of Brexit will be chaotic, it's started already with us losing the EU agencies.
Noises out of Ireland and Brussels point to the fact that the main stumbling block already is the Irish Border question. Exactly what Bruff predicted. Add break up of the Union. The easiest way out is to unify Ireland but nobody dare mention that.

[Stanley]

Later.... see THIS Guardian report on the EU reaction to the May White Paper. The bottom line is that it has been officially rubbished by all 27 EU members. God alone knows where this leaves us and I doubt if any UK politician will spell it out, the idea is so awful. The hard line Brexiteers must be hugging themselves!
A small pointer, reports that some companies are stocking up on essential imports like medicines in case there is a supply crisis in March......

[Stanley]

I suspect that like me, most of you are watching what is happening with morbid fascination and zero enthusiasm. I just want you to know that I don't blame you. No wonder the general public is disillusioned about politics and can't be bothered to vote..... This is probably the worst aspect of the whole Brexit affair, having lulled us into stupor the men in grey suits can do whatever they want! They always say we get the government we deserve.....

[plaques]

One of the main benefits given high prominence when we leave the EU is that we will be able to export our manufactured goods at prices and tariffs which will make us ultra competitive. There are two main obstacles to this bit of El Derado.The first being that large sections of our manufacturing industry are foreign owned and will move to where the profits are greatest and red tape is minimal. ie: back within the trade free zone of the EU. Second, once you have lost contact with manufacturing then future steps in innovation become far more difficult and access to 'intellectual' property gets completely shut off. Its clear that the current government don't understand manufacturing and that they are still convinced that shuffling paper and slick banking deals are the way forward.