POLITICS CORNER

[Tizer]

The Sunday Times front page article today begins as follows (I can't access the rest):
`Theresa May is facing an unprecedented political crisis, according to a new poll that reveals voters are implacably opposed to her Brexit plan and are prepared to turn to Ukip or parties of the far right. In a survey that will spark unease in Downing Street, the YouGov poll found that the public believes Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, is better placed to negotiate with Brussels and lead the Conservatives into the next election. It highlights how voters are polarising, with growing numbers alienated from the two main parties. About 38% would vote for a new party on the right that was committed to Brexit, while 24% are prepared to support an explicitly far-right anti-immigrant, anti-Islam party.' LINK

[Stanley]

shuffling paper and slick banking deals are the way forward. I think that this is the key P. Remember the Thatcherite/Friedman view of 'The New Economy' in which manufacturing had no place and services were all we needed? It is still alive and well in the ranks of those who don't understand the concept of work and added value.
Tiz.... It's very worrying. Worth listening to 'A Point of View' (R4 Sunday, 05:45) broadcast yesterday. It was a dedicated Brexiteer who made a very convincing case for the problems in the EU raised by the rise of far-right movements. Very disturbing.... I voted Remain and still believe it was the right choice. I'm afraid my views are not main stream..... Am I wrong?
This is where modern politics has taken us, away from ethics and principles and into the politics of fear.

[Stanley]

I know you're all sick to death with it but reports from Brussels that Barnier has specifically ruled out any sweetheart deals with financial services. Add this to Ireland and the Customs and it looks as though Chequers is dead in the water. Things are looking worse and worse but Raab keeps doing his 'play up and play the game' rhetoric. I don't think he is fooling anyone and it looks as though he is losing his temper and blaming everything on the EU exactly as Bruff forecast all those months ago.....

[Stanley]

Hunt, as new Home Secretary is joining in the hard line. Yesterday he warned the German Foreign Minister that if the UK crashes out of the EU it could lead to 'A generation of bad feeling'.
When all this lot started and May was doing her 'Bloody difficult woman' act I pointed out that once the Article 150 letter went in, the EU held all the cards and weren't going to alter the rules of their club just to accommodate us. This is exactly what is happening and the penny hasn't dropped yet. We are still demanding exceptional treatment and that is precisely what the EU will never give us. If we get away with bending the club rules it opens the floodgates as far as they are concerned. Unless there is a stunning 'U' turn I can't see any escape from this fate.

[plaques]

Rees-Mogg has been quoted as saying that a hard Brexit will ultimately benefit the UK but it could take 50 years. No prizes for guessing who will be the winners and losers during this 50 year period. Barnier has pulled the rug from under the under the banking feeding trough by rejecting the recent Chequers White Paper proposal on the Banking negotiations. You can now forget Manufacturing promises, hard and soft borders etc, banking will become the priority.

[Stanley]

Have you ever seen such a badly managed cock up?

[Tizer]

Unless there is a stunning 'U' turn I can't see any escape from this fate.

Rees-Mogg has been quoted as saying that a hard Brexit will ultimately benefit the UK but it could take 50 years.

That's the Moggles covering their backs.

[PanBiker]

Indeed, any sane person who has a modicum of intelligence should see that this is not an instant fix. Problem is they don't! If anyone actually does want to trade with us you can probably reckon on 10- 15 years to make the deals. In the meantime everyone at the bottom of the pile has to exist on falling income and temporary or zero hours contracts or another favourite, make your workers go self employed, less of a problem that way! We are just about back where we were in 1945. No mention on who is going to pick our vegetables or mend us when we are in hospital. So one would hope that when there's no veg in the shops or supermarkets and the Johnny foreigner surgeon who would have saved your life but cant because we sent him home, those that voted to leave won't complain, (those with the medical complaints may not be able to). Oh, and lets just turn the clock back in Ireland for good measure, 1917 would be about right for them. Not bad for a Dave bad idea that morphed into the biggest peacetime cock up of all time.

[Stanley]

Ian, it was nowhere near as bad as this in 1945...... I'd say nearer the 1930s......
Liz Truss giving the glad tidings of the biggest public sector pay rise (for some.....) in ten years. No mention of the fact that it was the Tories who drove their incomes down with the cap and they are still nowhere near their income in 2008 in real terms.
Have you noted how Hunt is now firmly in place as a contender for the leadership.
Parliament doesn't sit again until September. Great timing.

[Stanley]

I've just been listening to a report on the BBC that T May is taking personal control of Brexit with Raab as deputy. So that's all right then......
At the same time questions are being asked about stock-piling essential imports like food and medicines in case there is any break in supply in March. Do you think that Cameron took things like this into account when he had his attack of the vapours?

[Tizer]

If anyone actually does want to trade with us you can probably reckon on 10- 15 years to make the deals.

That had me thinking back to Bruff's explanations of the difficulties of making trade deals. Which reminded me of a time in the 1980s when I got involved with the Codex Alimentarius food regulations and went to Brussels to attend a meeting with technical representatives from other countries to sort out a new regulation. It was probably on something like rapeseed oil quality. When you want to make trade deals it isn't just some government ministers getting together, there's all the background detail to be thrashed out by technical, legal and finance people. It's bad enough if you can get agreement but just imagine how much time it takes if you can't agree. And if you make several trips just to sort something like rapeseed quality how many other meetings are there?

[Stanley]

Surely we can trust our leaders when they say it will be a new dawn? I see Rees Mogg has said that 50 years should do it....... So again, that's all right!
It looks as though Trump has done it again..... See THIS for a report on US/EU trade..... Mind you, I'm not too sure what it is exactly or what difference it will make!
Another small circumstance that May and Company will have to factor in. (As well as EU/China)

[Stanley]

Oh Dear! I see that Barnier has stated unequivocally that it is the unanimous opinion of all the members that there is no way the UK as a reneged member can be allowed to collect EU tariffs. I think this means that every part of the Chequers 'agreement' has been rubbished.
May's response is to trot off to Salzburg the go to the opera and on the same trip meet representatives of Austria and Czechoslovakia as both countries have a strong anti-EU faction. The general opinion is that no way will they break ranks because their countries do so well out of the benefits of membership of the EU.
They must be scratching their heads, what the hell can they do next? It looks increasingly likely that our only option is going to be to crash out and if we do it will be redefine 'Hard Brexit'. Tin hats on lads..... October and then March aren't far away.

[Tizer]

The Brexiteers seem to have gone into `cut off your nose to spite your face' mode. `We've said we're going to do it and we'll damn well do it!' mode. Never mind that it's utterly crazy, will cause immense disruption and have awful consequences for decades to come, especially for the young. And all due to daft notions about `taking back control' and keeping out Johnny Foreigner. We'll end up with less control over our future and more dependence on immigrants.

[chinatyke]

We'll end up with less control over our future and more dependence on immigrants.

Only if you allow it. Get used to being a small insignificant country, you might be poorer but why would you lose control?

[plaques]

Mrs Teflon May will negotiate the best possible Brexit but just in case these foreigners don't see it our way it is prudent to stockpile some of the things that may become in short supply. By-the-way its not the government who will doing the stockpiling but ordinary companies and individuals. These are minor things like medicines, blood, food, and anything that could be held up in the 'just in time' chain. Also shortages only remain shortages for a limited period of time. All you do is put the price up. People can either no longer afford it or refuse to buy at inflated prices the effect is the same, no shortage! We can now see how she is going to resolve childhood obesity.

[Tizer]

...but why would you lose control?

A major example is that while in the EU we have a say in what goes on in most of the rest of Europe, and in cases such as the accession of other countries (eg. Turkey) we have the power of veto. Once out of the EU we may well find ourselves more exposed to pressures of migration than we do now.

[Whyperion]

Tiz, I dont recall actually any Vote Leave major proponents saying that the numbers of persons (from any country around the world) would not increase, indeed I got the impression (that effectively people who meet <undeclared> criteria of economic advantage to the UK would have a place in the UK - but that this would be controlled by UK and not EU authorities.

Plaques - elements of that might not be such a daft idea. Though for trading it is not the final product goods that will have a big problem of avaliblity but intermediate components that will be assembled in UK/EU into a final supply item that is a bigger potential problem.

But there is still a basic trade framework (The Tarriff) which used to take up a couple of shelves above my 8foot desk in one workplace. The EU constantly changed the rules on subsidy/ outgoing tariff on the likes of foodstuffs (and food products containing basic ingredients like Cereals, Eggs, Sugar, Cocoa, Meat Products, Fruit and Veg as just part of things. The tariff on say a Rich Tea biscuit would vary on the proportions of sugar and other ingredients, going up on one bit and down on the other. Great Fun. But nevertheless seemless importing / exporting can happen - just at an unfront financial cost.

[Stanley]

China we have 8 million families who are in debt and can't afford to live within their income as it is. They are the ones who will suffer most. Note that these are the ones who Mrs May noted as 'just managing' when she became leader and promised she would champion their cause. Trouble is she was thinking that getting the poor into work was the cure. The Tory mantra is 'Make Work Pay' but unfortunately they hadn't worked out that in order to do that they had to be paid a genuine living wage. There are more people on inadequate wages than when she came to power. Add to this the fact that things like overtime. holiday pay and security have declined even further under her Leadership. Someone said at the time that anyone who was poor had no hope because they were on the road to penury and homelessness. That's exactly what has happened and we have more homeless families and rough sleepers than ever. Food banks are one of the growth industries of this generation. For them, this situation is disaster.

[Stanley]

News that T May has persuaded the Austrian leader to promise that her plan will be on the agenda at the next meeting of the 27. As they have already unanimously decided that it is a non-starter it's difficult to see how this helps. The only positive thing for her is that she can report that the divide and conquer strategy has got it's first tiny foothold. I'm afraid this is Fantasy Island Politics......

[Tizer]

This Briefing Room episode was broadcast on Radio 4 on 5th July, before the Chequers meeting, but it's worth downloading the podcast and listening to it again in the light of events since the meeting - especially the final part with Peter Spiegel of the Financial Times.

The Briefing Room: Brexit decision time LINK
What will Britain's relationship with the EU look like after Brexit? On Friday the cabinet meets in Chequers and the Prime Minister needs to unite her ministers to coalesce around a single approach to negotiations with the EU. What might that approach look like? Is the so-called Norway option back on the table? What would that mean and how might it work?

Contributors:
Catherine Barnard - Professor of European Law at the University of Cambridge
Liv Monica Stubholt - partner at Norwegian Law firm Selmer, and an expert on Norway-EU relations
John Erik Fossum - Professor at the ARENA Centre for European Studies at the University of Oslo,
Peter Spiegel - News editor, Financial Times and former Brussels Bureau chief.

[Stanley]

Peter Spiegel was right, "you are having a negotiation with yourself and claiming victory". Exactly, only trouble is that the EU has red lines as well. The logic is that we can only get a resolution if the Tory Party explodes!
By the way, we pay these people for doing this to us........

[Tizer]

Yes, the conclusion was either May goes or there will have to be a general election. At least a movement is now growing to create a third party.

[plaques]

At least a movement is now growing to create a third party.

This is always a possibility but how will the current two party + fringe parties line up? Currently reading a book on
' The coming of the Third Reich' (by Richard J Evens) he lays out in some detail how small extremist political groups can gradually overtake the more established main line parties. In today's terms the loudest voices appear to be the Rightwing Nationalist groups with access to newspaper leverage plus some of the Jewish groups whose main aim seems to be getting rid of Corbyn so that they can run the Labour Party on their terms. Whether these factions will be able to split the parties to form viable independent parties is debatable. At the moment both these groups seem intent on creating as much mischief as possible hoping they can get their way without having to declare their hands.

[Stanley]

Unfortunately I think you are right P. But I can't help thinking that we sit here, looking at what is going on in other countries with the first stirrings if Fascism and wondering where the the threat is when it's right in front of our eyes. The right wing of the Tory party aren't full blown Fascists yet but they are showing some of the characteristics and getting away with it because they use 'tradition'. I'd better stop, I think I am in danger of sounding radical.