POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

And yesterday she promised the end of austerity..... The reports of the conference have mentioned the sparse attendance.
May can make a forward booking with the removal people for All Fool's Day 2019, that's a dead cert now. They won't want her leading them into a General Election and as I predicted a long time ago, whoever is in charge when the crap hits the fan hasn't a hope of re-election......
As for the dancing, whose brilliant idea was that! Funny thing is that I have just had a flash back to Neil Kinnock shouting "Yea, all right!!" several times.

[PanBiker]

Her Abba Dancing Queen stunt may well come back to bite the Tories. Benny and Bjorn who wrote and own the rights to the tune are not happy in allowing their music used for political purposes. They took the far right Danish PF party to task for using "Mama Mia" in one of their propaganda offerings. I wonder if they asked Jeff Lynne for permission to use Mr Blue Sky as well?

Dancing Queen Anger

[Tizer]

She's probably got a personal advisor who told her that doing that little dance would relax her and relax the audience too ready for the speech. Mind you, regardless of what we all think, it got her onto almost every British newspaper this morning. And as Trump will tell you, `any kind of publicity is good publicity'.

[Stanley]

I understand all that but it brings to mind IDS and the 'Quiet Man' speech.
Good point Ian about copyright....... But they'll blame that on a 'third party supplier' if it happens.

[plaques]

it brings to mind IDS and the 'Quiet Man' speech.

Nothing original here. The widespread use of 'speak softly and carry a big stick' began with American president Theodore Roosevelt. In a letter to Henry L. Sprague, on January 26th 1900,

[Stanley]

Trump reminds me of Teddy Roosevelt in many ways. I didn't go for his style and Trump has coarsened it. Besides, he never speaks quietly.
News started to come in last night suggesting 'good progress' in Brexit negotiations in Brussels but see THIS BBC report on the problems posed by Ireland. I can remember that this had not occurred to me until Richard raised the question over a year ago. My God, was he right......
Stirrings in Wales about independence.... Conservative and Unionist Party?

[Stanley]

See THIS report on the troubled process of installing Brett Kavanough as a Supreme Court judge. It looks as though he is home and dry now. This looks like a Republican triumph but hang on a minute..... US politics is complicated stuff, and the general interpretation by the watchers is that if the Democrats had succeeded in barring Kavanaugh, the Republicans would have been so fired up that they would have had a good turn out in the mid terms and given them the senate and the upper house. Besides that, Trump would have selected another right wing candidate. In contrast, Kavanaugh getting through will mollify the Republicans and perhaps lessen the urge to fight, complacency is dangerous stuff.
Now consider the effect on the Democrats.... The influence of the metoo ethos triggered massive street protests by very passionate women who were appalled by the course of the senate committee hearing. The theory is that as a second line of attack this mobilised protest movement could turn out in more than the usual numbers in the mid-terms. The theory is that this could be a threat to Trump's house majorities. I think that this is more than likely to be true and so what looks at first sight like failure by the Democrats might be a very astute bit of politics. Complicated isn't it....... Bear in mind as well that all Republicans aren't fanatics, there will be many, particularly women who will be very disturbed by the selection process. We can only live in hope!

[Tizer]

Another example of blatant misinformation by the right-wing press this morning. The Daily Express has it's front page headline in big letters: `VICTORY FOR BRITAIN' followed by `£154b Marmite-maker scraps overseas HQ plan'. The `Brexit Britain was given a big boost yesterday after Unilever axed plans to move its global HQ from London to Rotterdam. I expected this would be how they'd present it. The reality is that the move had been planned long ago and was nothing to do with Brexit!

[Stanley]

Quite right Tiz and also Unilever have said that they are still considering the change as it makes so much sense. All that stopped them was the fact that the big institutional shareholders would have been forced to sell stock because it would not be guaranteed by a quote on the Footsy. Their auto trading systems won't allow this.
I'm taking the optimistic noises from Brussels with a large pinch of salt.....
Later, I see that May is appealing to disaffected members of the Labour Party to join the 'moderate and patriotic' Tory Party..... This in itself illustrates how far she is out of touch with reality. Any sensible person, looking at the result of eight years of the Tory version of 'moderation and patriotism' can only come to one conclusion, what we actually need is radicalism and a greater degree of internationalism. The Tory mantras, based largely on echoes of an imperial past, have led us to the brink of chaos with many thousands of families in dire straits, impoverished public services, growing rates of rough sleeping and homelessness and many 'wage earners' having to rely on food banks for nourishment (including serving police officers according the the Police Federation).
Has all this escaped the Tory's attention? Or is it simply that they don't care, there is a price to pay for their policies and the poor and society in general are regarded as expendable cannon fodder. Perhaps existing members of the Tory Party should consider this and ask themselves if this is the kind of Britain they want. (Even 'Britain' might be a redundant word before long. There are increasing signs that the Union is shaky.)

[Tizer]

I wish they'd stop trying to get people to join political parties and concentrate on getting them to vote, that's what counts. The number of people in Britain who are members of a political party is just under 1 million; the number of people eligible to vote is 46 million (Wikipedia figures). So only 1 in every 46 voters is a member of a party. Half of the 1 million members are in the Labour Party of course, because it revolves around membership. Comparing membership numbers isn't helpful with respect to elections: for instance the Conservatives, LibDems and SNP have about the same number of members, and the Green Party has around half of what each of those has.

[plaques]

I see that May is appealing to disaffected members of the Labour Party to join the 'moderate and patriotic' Tory Party..

This is beginning to look like a re-run of the Spanish revolution where the elected socialist officials were all to ready to desert those who had elected them and go over to Franco at the first opportunity. Mrs May is now calling on the embedded Tory fifth columnist to come out and support her. Up to now the Tories have been satisfied with these 'disaffected' members to cause as much mischief as they can without revealing their true colours. No wonder there is a push to 'deselect' these MP's who really do not want a Labour government at any cost.

[Stanley]

"No wonder there is a push to 'deselect' these MP's who really do not want a Labour government at any cost" That could be most of the sitting members P!
Notice the deathly hush on all fronts. Is the proposed 'deal' that bad? Feels like the calm before a storm.
See THIS for a BBC report of John McDonnell on the Universal Credit fiasco. These are the sort of subjects that we should be addressing. Thousands of people losing money and suffering and this is only a trial!

[Stanley]

Very simple, there is no politics at the moment, or at least, nothing that they feel we ought to know about. Of course this could be good news. However, in my water I don't think so, I think that the Tories and the EU are working on a lash up.... I have an idea it could cause an explosion in the Village when the terms are outlined.

[plaques]

Something that has disappeared from the immediate headlines. Brussels offered Mrs May a potential Brexit deal which was partially built round the back stop Irish boarder. ie: computer recorded entries so that a hard customs boarder was unnecessary. It looked like Brussels was calling Mrs May's bluff by asking if they went down that road would she have it in place by such and such date, otherwise its back to a hard boarder. Downing street apparently want a more aspirational element built into it. ie: pigs may fly. Another non-runner.

[Stanley]

Don't worry P. Raab says all we have to do is hold our nerve and be resolute..... Why should England tremble?
I get the feeling that Brussels has thrown its collective hands up, either May capitulates and gets defeated at home or she does her 'we fight on the beaches' speech and crashes out blaming EU intransigence. only alternative is to either apply for an extension or rescind the Article 150 letter. Any of these will cause an explosion in Westminster. The simple fact is that we have run out of time.
We are continually told by the Tories how well they are managing the economy. So have a look at THIS IMF report on the net worth of governments (assets against liabilities) and note that the only country in Europe that is worse than the UK is Portugal.

[Stanley]

I think there is a cabinet meeting today....... I wonder what they will be talking about?
My impression is that the atmosphere in Parliament is very edgy and nervous. Everybody is waiting for some certainty and when they get it we may see some agitation. One thing is certain, there is going to be no blanket agreement. Many MPs are setting out their demands now in the hope it will influence things. What are the Brexiteers up to? Is it true that the Budget is going to be voted down and a call of 'No Confidence' made?
We live in interesting times and all I am certain of is that this is not good governance!
Later.... Sir John Major has warned the Tory Party that Universal Credit is shaping up to be as big a disaster for the Party as Poll Tax. That sounds about right.......

[plaques]

Try as I may to follow the various manoeuvers and shenanigans of the Brexit I'm getting to the point of total confusion. As for as I can see this confusion is all part of the master plan to give the impression that an acceptable deal is just round the corner where in actual fact its just a delaying tactic until time runs out. I this case its not the 'King's suit of clothes' but the Dancing Queen's ballroom dressing'. The bottom line is that nobody including MP's, the Newspapers and the general media know what's going on. Watch out for more 'back stop' confusion, more talk of aspirations, Insurance policies, all mixed with promises that its the best deal for the country.

[Tizer]

The confusion isn't part of a master plan: there isn't one! The confusion is real, nobody knows what to do. There's still time for my prediction to come true - that we'll find it's effectively impossible to leave the EU, not because the EU has a stranglehold over us but simply because leaving would be disastrous. Politicians will have to come out of their shell and admit that leaving the EU is the wrong decision and we are staying in. Forget all this silly business of `the people have spoken' and make an executive decision. There will be angry people but all that could be tempered by the benefits of getting back to normal, businesses and individuals knowing their future, and a big sigh of relief...even from former leavers!

[Stanley]

P, I sympathise with your confusion and you're right, everyone including the UK negotiators is confused. On the whole I think Tiz is nearer the truth but I would modify what he says a bit by saying that the big problem has not been the absence of plans but the plethora of opposing plans and none of them of good quality.
As things stand at the moment, leaving internal politics aside, I see two clear courses, a 'hard Brexit' with a border between Northern and Southern Ireland or rescinding the application letter and staying in the EU. Don't complicate matters by starting to consider all the objections to either or what would ensue.
As for any other 'negotiated settlement' it seems clear that the EU would consider an extended period for more talks but note they absolutely refuse to set a time limit on these. In effect that means we stay in the Union indefinitely with no say in policies as I see no scope for any meaningful compromise that will satisfy all the opposing parties.
When this process first started I pointed out that the big flaw I saw then (and others have appeared since of course) was that once Article 50 was triggered, the UK had no cards in its hand, the EU had complete control and could impose what suited it best. There was never any prospect of compromise.
It seems to me that the real problem is obvious and has been since 2010, it's the Tories with their outdated views based on history of empire and their internal divisions. They have totally mismanaged the economy and the EU question and are now at a dead end. If they go for a hard Brexit they go down and take us with them into their la-la land of 'sovereignty'. I agree with Tiz, time to chuck them out, rescind the application to leave and start to rebuild trust with Europe (that's been the biggest casualty). If we don't do that we are buggered.
Meanwhile, in another part of the forest and remembering "Events Dear Boy"..... Read THIS CNN report on the stock market falls and have a bit of a ponder.

[Tripps]

Another twenty six documents have been released today outlining the problems that will surely come in the absence of Brexit agreement. I recalled the last potential catastrophe the country faced over the period of the 2000 millennium.

I cut out and kept kept this press cutting which outlined the Government's preparations for the event. Makes interesting reading now. Good thing we were so well prepared.


Remember the Millennium Bug? This is a press cutting from The Sunday Times of 18 July 1999.

"Soldiers pull out of Kosovo to deal with millennium bug chaos"

by Hugh McManners Defence correspondent.

The SAS and other special services are to deal with outbreaks of civil disorder and the collapse of utilities under secret plans being drawn up by the armed forces to cope with the millennium bug. The plans, codenamed 'Operation Surety' will see the special forces and other armed troops deployed to protect not only key government sites, but also civilian installations such as banks, airports and power stations if their security systems fail.

The extent of the military's role has been disclosed as the armed services prepare for the critical date of September 9th or 9/9/99 when the scale of the computer chaos could become apparent Half the combat troops are to be withdrawn from Kosovo by the end of August, a total of 2000 troops. A Ministry of Defence (MoD) source said Operation Surety, drawn up over 18 months by a small team of specialists at the Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood Middlesex, had been given the highest military priority after after active operations in Kosovo.
"The operation is designed to ensure that essential government and civilian functions can continue between September and February next year, which is the period of danger. "It's a real threat, and highly classified" said the source. Soldiers would also support the emergency services in handling disruption, and accidents caused by the failure of electricity, water supplies, and telephones through the inability of many computer systems to cope with the date change from 1999 to 2000.

Planners fear that the computer failure could leave installations vulnerable to criminal and terrorist attack. Armed troops, some with light tanks and heavy weapons, will be deployed to guard likely targets, such as airports. In the worst scenario, some form of martial law may be necessary in localised areas.

Eight leading financial institutions have asked the MoD for protection. Individual chief constables will call for military back - up if security system failures lead to looting and civil disorder.

The army will provide transport, communications, medical help and food supplies as well as armed security. Fifty military postmen will ensure that government mail gets through. Army motorcycle dispatch riders will deliver secret government documents by hand if electronic transmissions are disrupted.

The Royal Navy will concentrate on the English Channel which has the highest density of shipping in the world. The royal Marines counter terrorist unit based at Arbroath and the Special Boat Squadron will be on stand by to board ships in trouble,

Military sources say the plan will also take troops overseas. "Even if everything goes well in UK, a number of foreign governments are not taking the millennium bug seriously. Some Muslim countries believe it is purely a 'Christian' problem.

RAF air traffic control teams will be ready to fly to any destination where the millennium bug threatens air routes. The Paras and Royal Marines will be ready to rescue British nationals caught in chaos abroad.
A decision on whether leave for the armed services should be cancelled over the millennium will be taken after September, when the extent of the problem could emerge.

The military has been testing its new communications system over the past two weeks. Problems have been discovered and senior officers say they may have to rely on older radio technology.

For the time being, we've gone back to simple and very old fashioned procedures that we know will work, said one officer. The military also plans to test all its weapons and electronic systems after January 1st so that no hidden glitches threaten Britain's security.

[Stanley]

It was all good planning for worst case if the Bug had been as bad as it could have been David. Difference now is that the present crisis (and it is just that) is entirely self-inflicted and never forget who initiated it.
We have a nervous cabinet holding their collective breath and considering which way to jump. How much of their thinking is governed by self preservation and how much by what is good for the UK?

[chinatyke]

I recalled the last potential catastrophe the country faced over the period of the 2000 millennium.
... Good thing we were so well prepared.

I was on night shift duty as the shift manager at the chemical site on New Year's eve 1999. At midnight nothing exceptional happened except for a few fireworks in the sky!

That's what I expect at Brexit. The sky isn't going to fall, mass starvation won't occur, Marmite will still be available, just another day.

[plaques]

At midnight nothing exceptional happened

During the Millennium bug crisis I talked to a number of software writers and they were under the same opinion that date changes were such a fundamental consideration that nothing would happen. But since the Establishment panicked and were offering loads of money to look into the problem it became more than a nice little earner. Brexit is no different we have got hundreds of miles of motorway which we can park the lorries on while they wait to go through customs, Problem sorted.

[Tripps]

I was on night shift duty

So was I, and was (marginally) involved in communications with transatlantic aircraft - so it might have been an interesting night. The main problem was dealing with the rumours of how much extra we were being paid for working on that special night. The answer was 'nothing' , but people were hard to convince.

[chinatyke]

I was on night shift duty

So was I, and was (marginally) involved in communications with transatlantic aircraft - so it might have been an interesting night. The main problem was dealing with the rumours of how much extra we were being paid for working on that special night. The answer was 'nothing' , but people were hard to convince.

I got nothing extra either because we worked a shift system that operated 365.25 days a year. When we adopted this "4-on 4-off" system our salary was adjusted to take account of having to work on public holidays, so we couldn't complain. Best system I ever worked.