POLITICS CORNER

[plaques]

Crash fears escalate as markets hit highs not seen since Black Tuesday

Capitalism has always been known to be fundamentally flawed. We are now at that point where austerity reduces earning and spending therefore money is in short supply and you currency drops against others. But assets, hopefully in the shape of shares in sound companies, remain at the same value so their prices increase. This can't go on for ever and eventually they collapse. Boom to burst, then we start all over again. It doesn't matter if you are in the top 1% but for ordinary workers it really is 'tin hat' territory.

[Stanley]

Good and timely posts....
"Mr Hacche said that this indicated “markets may have become increasingly vulnerable to shocks"
I think that's perfectly correct and an understatement. Now is the time when the leeches in the market see opportunities for bailing out and making profit from the fall. Once that tipping point is reached we shall see the 'market' at its finest and just as Spreadshit Phil is 'fine tuning' his budget and the effects of the first interest rate rise in the UK for ten years is having an effect. I saw a doorstep interview when the rate rise was announced and a lady with savings was ecstatic and saying she wanted more. I thought at the time "Dream on Love!"
Wonderful how a Parliament which is so slow to react to the problems caused by the introduction of Universal Credit can move with lightning speed to set up a hot line and a new body to manage grievances. (Or am I too cynical?)
Not a dicky bird about the resumed talks in Brussels.... The Tories are gagging for a good news story and if there was any movement at all they would be leaking like a sieve. The hard-line Brexiteers are rubbing their hands, it's a dream scenario for them, stalemate in Brussels, chaos in Westminster and a PM who has no authority. Could be a perfect storm...... Forget the tin hats, start digging holes in the back garden!

See THIS for the latest example of Boris opening his mouth without first putting his brain in gear. This poor woman, whatever the facts of the case, is put in further jeopardy by his unguarded remarks which have been denied immediately.
See THIS for a BBC report of the strange case of Priti Patel's 'holiday'. Could it be that the Tory ministers are under the impression they have a free hand because party discipline and the authority of May is no bar to independent action? "Events Dear Boy" are piling up, when do we reach the point where the Angle of Repose is reached? (LINK)

[plaques]

The 'Paradise' papers are now causing a bit of an headache. The EU has now put it on their agenda for possible legislation. Link. There is also talk of creating a black list of all non-cooperating countries. The EU have already got 'Apple' in its sights. Thank goodness we are getting out of the EU you never know where this sort of thing will stop. You could even get to the stage where extremely rich people and organisations actually pay their fare share.

[Stanley]

"You could even get to the stage where extremely rich people and organisations actually pay their fare share."
Spot on P. Wouldn't that be terrible....
Once again all you have to do is scan the HEADLINES. Are we approaching a tipping point?
Meanwhile, In another part of the forest.... Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Lebanon could be precursors to the Mother of all Sunni/Shia collisions in the Middle East as Iran steps up the pressure.
The 'Season of Good Will'.......
Must go into the shed and immerse myself in the sanity of doing things with my hands.....

[Bruff]

So, to summarise:

Boris: She was there teaching journalism.
Others: Sorry? I thought she was there on holiday?
Boris: Precisely. That is what I said. There on holiday. My words have been misinterpreted.

Good grief. Should I laugh or cry?

Still look on the bright side. The International Development Secretary might be sacked in an hour (bright side 1). But her summonsing back from Africa casts a light on Brexit developments. We might be leaving the largest and wealthiest trading block the world has ever known (sitting, conveniently, right on our doorstep), and the US has said EU rules = no US/UK trade deal (so taking the US at their word, that’s an immediate rock-hard border in Ireland if we want a US trade deal). But she was in Africa with the Trade Secretary looking to make up for all this with more trade with Uganda – bootlaces for bananas (bright side 2)!

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

I assume you all know that Patel is history.
I listened to a sensible sounding woman in Brussels being questioned about progress on the EU negotiations and when asked about Theresa May's assessment that we are 'only inches away' on the three headings she had to smother a laugh, she said it wasn't inches but a yawning gap. She volunteered that the offer on Citizenship for EU citizens who are settled here and have children and grand children born in the UK was derisory and not acceptable. They have obviously recognised the implications in the offer detailed in PE some weeks ago, that under the new offer they would have to submit an immensely complicated application and even if it succeeds they are more liable to be deported if there is one tiny flaw in their past, just the same as recent arrivals. What bothered me was that she didn't mention the cash settlement at all.
I agree with you Richard, Boris is a buffoon and has made us a laughing stock. The same woman was asked what the general perception of our stance is and she said 'baffled'. They can't detect any evidence of joined-up thinking in our actions and consider May as fragile.
There was an interesting episode of 'All you need to know about Brexit' on R4 yesterday. Well worth seeking out on iPlayer if you missed it. It concentrated on Euratom and raised questions I haven't heard mentioned before. Basically, as things stand, if we drop out of the agreement we lose the short life radioactive sources necessary for medical diagnosis immediately. The stumbling block isn't complicated, Euratom is nothing to do with the EU but relies on the ECJ and we have set our face dead against the court on purely ideological grounds, regaining that mythical beast 'Sovereignty'.
My assessment hasn't changed, our approach is fundamentally flawed and chaotic, we are speeding towards the cliff edge and the biggest policy disaster in history.

[Tripps]

From the Guardian on the first day of the 'post Patel' era, and before her successor is announced.

"The former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith, another Eurosceptic, said May should not seek to change the fine balance in the cabinet between remain and leave supporters."

When the referendum result, and the Government policy say 'leave'. How can a cabinet member be a 'remain supporter? What a shambles. . .

[PanBiker]

We all know that Patel has resigned but nearer to the truth, her letter was probably being written as she flew back to the UK. Almost certainly by one of those Civil Servants that she neglected to take with her on her so called holiday. The other question that this throw up is that as one of Boris Johnson's minions or certainly part of his department, why wasn't he aware of what she was about? This in itself should be a sackable offence as she flouted the ministerial code. If he did know, that is just a bad, coupled with is gaff over the doubling of the British Citizens sentence by use of his unfettered mouth, he should be history as well.

[Stanley]

Ian. Theresa May always supported Remain until she had a Road to Damascus moment when offered the Leadership. Secretly, especially now she has looked through the furnace door and seen the true implications of leaving, I think she still is a Remainer. I agree about Boris, he was appointed to placate his supporters and is unfit for the job. From what I can see everyone is laughing at him.....

[Tizer]

The Daily Express front page runs a headline today saying that the true amount we pay to the EU is not the £350M shown on the Brexit bus but £980M. It credits a banking consultant called Bob Lyddon and they seem to have got it from here. Ignore the title `Brexit Flashcards - get them here!' and read down the page. And keep in mind that he will have written it himself. LINK

[Stanley]

A one sided and I suspect biased personal statement. What we have needed all along is open debate with transparent facts. Keynes famously said that if you set four economists to debate a topic you'd get five opinions. I'll stick to Piketty and Stiglitz and keep it simple. Unless there is a global wealth tax we are all buggered!
Yesterday's 'news' out of Brussels shows that the heat is going up in the kitchen. In effect the EU has issued an ultimatum, concrete proposals within two weeks or forget trade talks for 3 months. This is the killer blow for industries trying to decide what to do. Far more serious than most understand and all Davies can do is waffle on about everybody exercising restraint and being flexible. We are now going to see headless chicken syndrome in Downing Street.

[Stanley]

"It's quiet out there Jim, too quiet...."
We aren't being told anything about the Barnier ultimatum (that's what it looks like!). Not a dicky bird out of Downing Street. I think we can assume that this has been a wake up call and that a log jam is about to break. I don't see what can be done about Ireland but the citizenship issue could be solved easily, question is will they do it? Then there is the money. I have a feeling they are going to make a slightly elevated offer on the divorce settlement, £30billion? But the sticking point is going to be the ongoing commitments. On balance I can't see the EU getting a satisfactory answer and the Hard Brexit gang will pile in. This a tipping point and is going to decide our future. We don't get a say.
What a prospect.......

[Tizer]

This bit of news on the Bloomberg politics web page hasn't been reported widely....
`Brexit is reversible and Britons should be given the right to change their minds, the man who helped write the rule book on leaving the European Union said. Prime Minister Theresa May’s letter in March, which triggered Britain’s departure under Article 50 of the bloc’s Lisbon Treaty, can be unilaterally withdrawn, John Kerr said in a speech in London Friday. Kerr played a key role in drafting the exit clause as secretary-general of the European Constitutional Convention in 2002-2003.
“We are not required to withdraw just because May sent her letter,” Kerr told an event hosted by Open Britain, a pro-EU pressure group. “We can change our minds at any stage during the process.” LINK

[Stanley]

I heard him on R4 Tiz. Have you noticed how anyone who suggests a U-turn is monstered?
Week In Westminster was interesting last night, the main opinion was that Gove and Boris are still trying to run the show, the Cabinet is divided and that May has no power at all to influence the Party. She is being swept along like a leaf on the tide and is not giving any indications at all of leadership and direction. Just when we need it most!
Let us not lose sight of what started this. The Hard right Tory dinosaurs still pining for the 19th century and Empire and Cameron's weak leadership in that he allowed himself to be dragged into the Cunning Wheeze of the Referendum to 'control them'. As I have said so often, we don't encourage statesmen any more, just time-servers looking out for themselves.
And whatever happens, it's too late now, we can't hope for reversal unless the Commons revolts and even if we did our reputation in Europe is rubbished...... I foresee troubled times over Xmas.
Later.... I listened to Keir Starmer this morning and he talks much common sense about the amendments to the repeal bill which are essential. See THIS for the gist of his argument. This sounds more than reasonable to me.

[Stanley]

I watched the urbane Davies announcing the 'concession' of the Parliamentary vote but of course it's a hollow promise. It can only happen if all has been agreed and rejection of it (if it happens) is, in effect, a vote for mass suicide in the shape of a no-deal exit. Keir Starmer was right, this signals a climb down by a government facing a parliamentary battle for amendments to the repeal bill this week and this isn't the last place they will have to concede. Remember that one of the key aims of Brexit was to regain 'sovereignty'. It would appear that this is Downing Street sovereignty not that of Parliament or the voter. We are being swept along with no control, as is May!
As if this wasn't enough, the latest inflation figures due this morning are expected to show another rise in October. Remember that the true rate of inflation of essentials is much higher than this. Spreadshit Phil will be scratching his head in No. 11.
Boris is forced to simply admit he was wrong about the lady in gaol in Iran. Too little too late and the damage has been done. If her sentence gets another 5 years added to it in consequence May will be under enormous pressure to sack him. I'd like to see that happen but I recognise that it is not helpful when the Tories are trying to convince Brussels that they are in control.

[Stanley]

Amazing how the inflation figure is just below the level that triggers the Governor of the BofE having to explain why it has happened. What a stroke of luck!
What grabbed me was the shot of the interior of the Commons during the debate on the repeal bill. There were remarkably few members present......
Meanwhile, May attempts to divert the news media by attacking Russia. I'll bet Putin is quaking in his boots......
Later..... If the political reporting is correct, what is being demonstrated at the moment in the repeal bill debate is the split down the middle of the Tory Party. This will be noted in Brussels..... It's hard to think of anything further that could be done to weaken our hand.
Can you imagine disputes of this magnitude during the time of the War Coalition in 1940? These are not insignificant niggles, they strike at the very roots of the case. If anyone can see anything positive would they please let me know.....

[plaques]

Meanwhile, May attempts to divert the news media by attacking Russia.

The golden rule of politics is when things are going downhill at home and the natives are getting restless find an enemy. Russia has always been a good bet ever since the Bolschevik blighters exposed our plan to carve up Europe with the Russian Tzar before the start of the WW1. Today's choice of Russia is particularly handy because of 'Fake News' and their implied involvement in Trump's election campaign. So anything negative you read about Mrs May or the Brexit is all false and just Russian propaganda. The fact that David Davis and his team of jokers are blundering along towards a cliff edge is nothing to do with their own Incompetency but all down to puppet master Putin pulling internet strings. As austerity bites even deeper and wages stagnate expect even more diversionary tactics.

[Tripps]

Boris's future seems possibly to depend on the fate of an Iranian British woman currently in prison in Iran. She is serving a five year sentence for what the Guardian describes as "on non-specific charges relating to national security "

Boris made the situation worse by saying in Parliament - that she had been 'teaching journalism' rather than the 'line to take' that she was on holiday. This was taken as an admission of guilt to the unknown charges, and raised the possibility of an increase in her sentence.

Now it has gradually emerged over the last couple of days, that the Government is considering granting her 'diplomatic status' to enable her release.

If a slip of the tongue by a badly briefed Foreign Secretary - (other explanations are available) - is worth an additional five years on her sentence, Is it possible that this may be taken as conclusive proof that she was acting for the UK Government, and have the opposite effect, and result in even more serious charges?

I keep thinking of the man always known on the BBC as the 'British business man'
- Greville Wynne. Check him out.

[Stanley]

Dead right P. After WW2 their was a fear in the States that everyone would apply to draw their War Bonds out and this would embarrass the government so a bogey man was needed. They chose 'Communism' and their ally Russia. Look what that led to, useless wars in Korea and Vietnam, in the case of Korea look at the consequences now. Bush chose Saddam, today it is the whole of Islam. God help us when May starts tweeting.....
David, my crap detector has been whining ever since the case arose. Could there be more to this than meets the eye? I also get the impression that the husband is not averse to his 15 minutes of fame..... Have you seen this?



[Note the reference to 'the Fallon'. PE knows something, they keep bringing Werrity to the fore.....]

[Stanley]

The media seem to be concentrating on Mugabe, very handy for a government in trouble. Why aren't we being informed? Is the press suffering from 'Brexit fatigue'?

[Tizer]

In the Guardian: `Joseph Stiglitz: 'Trump has fascist tendencies' LINK
I'm glad someone else is noticing that!

[Stanley]

I have been advocating the views of Piketty and Stiglitz for a long time now Tiz. Their analysis of what is happening is based on evidence and rings true. Until I am convinced otherwise I regard them as unimpeachable witnesses and the picture they paint is dire.
Davies is all over the news as he spreads his oleaginous brand of avuncular patronisation over all of us in an attempt to justify our lamentable performance on the Brexit negotiations. Even Tusk expresses exasperation at him treating everything as a joke. I said a long time ago that what the Tories failed to realise was that as soon as the talks started, the EU held all the cards and we are supplicants, that's the way the EU is set up. When Davies refers to 'movement' and 'compromise' he ignores the fact that this is exactly what Barnier cannot to, he is bound by the directives issued by the 27. They have made it perfectly clear that until Ireland is solved and the cash is agreed there will be no trade deal discussions and have issued a firm deadline of the end of this month. On that basis, there is no hope of May and Davies being able to 'move on' as they put it.
What particularly annoyed me was Davies' claim that we had 'given concessions on Citzen's Rights'. These so called concessions were that we moved from a totally unacceptable solution to a slightly better one that is still an erosion of the long term resident's position at the moment. Double speak like this is not negotiation, it is sharp practice and the EU are on top of it.
Time for a vote of no confidence on this pathetic excuse for a government. I note that voices other than me and Tiz are asking for the equivalent of a war coalition.......

[Tizer]

For some reason Piketty and Stiglitz sound to me like characters in a children's cartoon show!

Yes, a coalition seems the only proper way to deal with our present political situation. No one party is fit to govern alone and we should pool resources. I notice that there are more people calling for a second referendum - I wish they could see beyond that and realise that what we need is for a U-turn on Brexit, not a referendum. Parliament must fulfil its role in our representative democracy and make a final decision on on our behalf on whether or not we leave the EU.

`100,000 people on universal credit will not receive a payment at Christmas' Independent
"At least 100,000 low-paid people on universal credit will receive no payment at Christmas, in a fresh controversy about the new benefit. The claimants will be hit because they are paid weekly and their income “will likely go over the universal credit limit”, officials say. They will be able to reapply in January – but, it is feared, will be left without money over the Christmas and New Year period. The same problem will re-occur in other months which, like December, have five paydays, because universal credit is calculated on a monthly basis."

[Stanley]

I saw that as well and heard Martin Lewis at dinnertime. This has been raised before and is a ludicrous application of bureaucracy. It betrays a deep lack of respect for the people they call 'clients'. Time someone got a grip and pointed out the simple fact that the number of pay days in a year balances out. Heads need knocking together.
What I notice is that Number Ten is willing to discuss anything but 'progress' on Brexit. The budget could turn out to be a joke, watch out for U-turns afterwards! They are talking about screwing pensioners when what they should be doing is reversing the lowering of corporation tax and biting the tax evaders. Ask yourself why £400million for a painting and £30million for a diamond. The super wealthy are desperate to find somewhere to invest their cash, that's where all the money is going and this government is favouring them.
On the main point, I agree, we need a cross party gathering of the talents and a dose of common sense. It's obvious that this ridiculous Brexit is suicidal. Did you hear Gove talking yesterday about the millions he wants to see invested in public services?

[Tizer]

Something is going very wrong with our organisations, whether they be commercial businesses, the public sector, charities or whatever. Mistakes and failures are rife. Our house move and all that follows it has meant a lot of contact and communication with such entities and much of it is going wrong one way or another. An example - Mrs Tiz has just received a cheque from Npower because she wrote to the top boss man and complained about how they wouldn't deal with us when we needed to change our electricity supplier after the move. They don't seem to have a mechanism for efficiently dealing with people who move house.. Amazing! And the letter says nothing about making any change to that. Part of the payment was also to cover an over-charge. It's not just the UK that's in trouble either. We have received a cheque for about £1000 from one of the biggest companies in Sweden which is supposed to pay for next year's subscription to scientific journals. We stopped doing this about 8 years ago, the business no longer exists, the PO Box number also is dead and the letter only reached us because our previous postman knew us well. It seems no-one at the company checked where they were sending the money!