POLITICS CORNER

[chinatyke]

[Stanley]

We know now what she was up to in Strasbourg, she has got a small change in the legal statement. There is no change in the treaty terms. I'm just listening to Dominic Grieve who has been listening to a group of barristers and seems to know what he is talking about. He says that the insertion in the legal document is virtually useless as it can only give us a partial get out from the backstop if it can be proved that the EU is 'acting in bad faith'. His point is that this is just about impossible to prove. His opinion is that it makes no difference in reality to the deal.
T May of course is promoting the change as a 'major improvement'. We will see.....
Meanwhile, an announcement from the EU that negotiations are over, there will be no more 'adjustments'. The ball is in our court. This seems to me to be a perfectly reasonable point of view. Let's see what the Tories think of it. I predict we will hear words like intransigence and arrogance.

[plaques]

This eleventh hour revelation by Mrs May has all the hallmarks of stage managed theatrics. Geoffrey Cox our Attorney General went to Brussels a couple a weeks ago to negotiate some legal changes to the back stop and supposedly came back empty hand. Now just before the curtain falls Mrs May flies over and comes back with some legal weasel words that will solve the problem but not give enough time for any indepth analysis. Parliament should give it the dog treatment, sniff at it, pee on it and walk away.

[Tripps]

Jon Snow says the Attorney General said no last night to Mrs May's new version of the agreement, and was told to go away and work out overnight, how to say yes. Mr Cox has issued a single word denial of this rumour. The word used begins with B. We'll see.

I think his future in the House of Lords will surely hinge on what he says today.

There was some doubt last night at nearly midnight, as to whether he would appear in the House and make a statement, and be questioned. It has just been announced that he will.

It has just been pointed out that the Iraq war was a result of an Attorney General changing his mind.

The odds with Paddy Power that today's agreement would be thrown out, were 1/8 yesterday, now 3/10. Still strong favourite. Should be an interesting day on Channel 201.

PS Preview of the AG' s opinion has emerged, and seems to indicate 'no change'.
The odds on a No vote are now 1/10.

[Stanley]

I watched the debate and vote as it seemed to me to be possibly an historic occasion.
Cox did the honourable thing and told T May the truth, whilst her latest white rabbit is a slight improvement on the old it is still not a watertight guarantee that we can get out whenever we like. It all hinges on proving bad faith on the part of the EU which is a lawyer's dream. In addition it looks as though initially the ECJ would be the arbiter....
Consequence was she lost by 149 votes, an 'improvement' on last time, she swung about 40 votes but still a historic rejection.
This solves nothing of course. Nobody in the Westminster Village has the slightest clue where we go next. The EU say that they can do no more, it's down to Westminster to decide what to ask for and if it doesn't happen quickly we have to run an election for MEPs.
In any other time, this scale of defeat (twice!) would automatically trigger a trip to Buckingham Palace and a general election but there is no time and anyway the Tory Party deputy leader said last night it didn't apply because these are 'exceptional times'. Right........
On any assessment this is total and abject failure. One sensible option would be to bite the bullet, go to Brussels and ask for a years extension and have a general election and a European election at the same time. Some rapid manifesto writing would be needed. But this still does nothing for the immediate problem. Watch this space.
I think we need a public apology from Cameron......
PS, outside the Commons, expect a flood of vituperation aimed at Brussels. The Tories need a scapegoat and they daren't use May.

[plaques]

Have we just witnessed a bit of double standard voting taking place. The peasants have been told ad nauseam that to have a second referendum would be like repeating a peoples vote until they came up with the right answer. This is not considered democratic and has been kicked into the long grass. Meanwhile in the House of Commons Mrs May brings back the same deal for a second vote. Something strange here. Perhaps we will see a third or forth vote until they get the right answer.
Tonight Parliament will get the chance to stop the possibility of a 'no deal' happening. But the wording of the vote carries a default position that a 'no deal' can be the end result. This implies that if Mrs May continues presenting her deal which has been rejected twice then its a 'no deal' situation. Heads I win Tails you lose. What a farce.

[PanBiker]

In any other time, this scale of defeat (twice!) would automatically trigger a trip to Buckingham Palace and a general election but there is no time and anyway the Tory Party deputy leader said last night it didn't apply because these are 'exceptional times'. Right........

There is still enough Parliamentary time and notice period to trigger a snap General Election to take place in May. It would have to be along with the Local Borough and Town Elections to avoid the Euro Elections starting on the 23rd May. This would of course have to be along with an extension of article 50. All options are possible, JC called for her to go to the polls again last night.

An added bonus there would be Pendle would have to scrap the Voter ID trial as it is only relevant for local elections, you would have three separate ballots, National, Borough and Town.

[Tripps]

Cox did the honourable thing and told T May the truth

You can be too cynical at times can't you? I was, I almost warmed to the guy by the end of his speech. You've got it right here Stanley - define 'good faith' - lawyers' dream.

I've just watched a debate in the European Parliament from Strasbourg. It's all very civilised compared to Westminster. Tightly controlled by an Irish lady. I've seen her interviewed recently here, but never seen her 'at work'. She tells MEP's how long they may speak for before they start - say two minutes. No public school type shouting - just the occasional approving round of applause. The exception was of course from a British MEP (UKIP I'd guess) whom spoiled the atmosphere. He was reprimanded from the chair - 'Mr ?? we have a special relationship - I'm special, I'm not sure about you.'

Still not totally convinced that ladies from Slovakia and Romania should be making any contribution to the future of the United KIngdom though.

Correction: I now find that in company with the Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt recently , I have confused Slovakia with Slovenia. The lady I saw was in fact one Tanja Feyon M.E.P. a socialist from Slovenia.

[Tizer]

Lord Heseltine was interviewed on Today this morning at about 08.20 and he made more sense on Brexit in that 5 minutes than I've heard from most other politicians in the last two and a half years.

[Stanley]

I'm glad someone can make sense of what is happening, I can't.
It all reminded me of the debate of the rejected ones in Hitch Hiker's Guide when they voted to use leaves as currency.....
My way. Vote of no confidence, General Election and immediately rescind the application under Article 50. Then a proper Parliamentary decision process on how to proceed using an all-party approach.
Phil Hammond boasting that financial position has been improved by stealing from the poor.... That sums up this government.

[plaques]

You are not alone in not being able to make any sense of it. Hammond is saying some of the Cabinet were confused and voted against the whip. What chance do we have at understanding it? Mrs May has offered a free vote on Article 50 extension but has no plan other than her own which has been rejected twice. She now suggests, with less than two weeks to go, that Parliament get their heads together and come up with an acceptable plan which over two years she failed to do. She has abdicated all responsibility but reserves the right of a no deal should she not agree with plan B . It really is time for her to go. The EU is saying it will listen providing what is offered makes sense. The trouble is that what makes sense to the majority of people is rejected by the Tory rightwingers. ,

[Tizer]

I've been saying for two and a half years that we'd end up finding that we can't exit the EU in any satisfactory manner and that we'd stay in. There's still time for me to be proved right!

In 2016 by far the majority of MPs knew it was in the best interests of the nation to stay in the EU but, as Heseltine said yesterday, they abdicated their responsibility and handed it over to a popular vote by people who had little idea of what Brexit would bring. They could exercise that responsibility now but instead they fear a populist backlash even though there's going to be such a backlash whatever we do. Therefore the only way now is another referendum to give people the chance to change their minds now that they know much more about the dangers of Brexit. Most people are so sick and tired of the whole Brexit business that they'll be glad to see the back of it and stay in the EU. Making a decision about Brexit is important but it's under our control; we need to stop it and switch to tackling those big issues which are not completely under our control, such as climate change, antibiotic resistance, terrorism etc.

[Tripps]

It's all a puzzle isn't it? Too many double negatives - why say 'take no deal off the table' why not we must 'have a deal on the table'. Now some say that leaving on 29th March is impossible, whilst others say (very convincingly) that it still remains the law of the land that we do so.

I think that Robert the Bruce's spider may be replaced by Mrs May's 'Agreement' as the exemplar of persistence.

I've started to mentally refer to her as 'Old Demdyke' - It's strangely comforting.

[PanBiker]

I wouldn't put to much faith in her offering a free vote if last nights performance was anything to go by. She changed her mind last night after losing the amendment endorsed by Yvette Cooper (the co signer Tory woman pulled out as proposer), the government lost that one albeit marginally 312 to 308. Moving on to the now amended substantive motion she withdrew the free vote from her MP's and put a three line whip on the proceedings. It didn't work of course and she lost that one by 321 to 278. Our very own moonface AS would have been beavering away in the background with a lot of his fellow own party MP's totally ignoring him, including some government ministers. Her deal is dead in the water (twice) but it looks like she will attempt to raise if from the dead as is which is bound to fail, we will be nearer the cliff edge by then, sheer bloody mindedness and a dereliction of duty to democracy, discipline has broken down in her own party and she should be going to see the Queen before the weekend is out but wont.

Oh, as a matter of protocol and according to the rule book, the ministers that ignored the whip should all have resigned by now but the Tory party seem to have thrown that out of the window as well, bloody disgraceful.

[Stanley]

I have this mental image of Brenda walking in and telling them all to go home.....

[Tizer]

Parliament is too bogged down in detail and it's time they took a `helicopter view' of the situation. It could all be sorted out very easily if they simply stepped out of the bog and back onto dry land. Recognise that referendums are only advisory and it's parliament that makes the decisions. They all know what the best decision is for Britain - stay in the EU. If they're too weak willed to do it then put it back to the nation in another referendum and let the people decide. The Brexiteers have been telling us for 2.5 years that `the people have made their choice'. Well, now they know what that choice is leading to so it's time to let them change their mind. The ERG keep saying a second referendum is `undemocratic' but how can that be so if they believe the first was democratic?

[plaques]

As predicted it looks like Parliament will be subject to another round of waterboarding until they come up with the right answer. This is nothing short of outright blackmail and flies in the face as what we understand as democracy. If Putin had adopted a similar policy we would never have heard the last of it. The government's policy on blackmail is never to give in to it but it is apparently OK to engage in it. Its time to stop pussyfooting about and get rid of her. Mrs May that is, Brenda can stay a bit longer.

[PanBiker]

There are a couple of scenarios that have not been taken into consideration as far as I can see by the protagonists, particularly those who think they are in charge. The first is the Speakers role in all this. TM dictates the order paper, Mother of the House (A. Leadsom), presents the order of business for the next day. Now, here's the rub, Mr Speaker has autonomy to strike any item from the order paper if he thinks that it would be wasting parliamentary time. He is also a stickler for protocol and there is usually a rule that if a motion fails, you cannot bring it back again in the same parliamentary session and she's already wangled that one once. Now the deal has failed spectacularly twice, will a third attempt be too much?

They were even mooting a possible fourth attempt scenario on the politico programs last night, when is a flogged horse actually dead? The other question of course is how can she have multiple votes on the same deal but deny the electorate another go at the polls, Referendum on what we know now or General Election

The other one of course is that if she goes to Europe for an extension to Article 50 with the same diatribe that she did last week they are almost certain to say no.

One get out, if her deal is ruled out of order, she could still go to Europe ask for an extension to allow her to go and see HM Queen and go to the country. A general Election is the easiest as all the legislation is already there it just needs the trigger. It was explained last night that another referendum would take considerably longer to organise as you have to pass laws through parliament to make it happen. A GE could still be done by May if they got their finger out. It's a bit late now for getting cross party pally round the table in the next fortnight, that's two years too late, time for the nuclear option.

[Tripps]

On a 'point of information' Mr Speaker -


Andrea Ledsom is in fact the Leader of the house. The Mother of the house or longest serving female member is Harriet Harman. Ledsom attracted the nickname 'mother' when during her bid for the Tory leadership he continually emphasised that she was a mother, and Theresa may wasn't. She lost of course, which with hindsight is probably a shame.

Hat tip to Richard Brough for this little gem of knowledge.

[PanBiker]

I defer to the honourable gentleman and accept his correction.

[Stanley]

You're all talking more sense than Parliament.
I agree totally with P about May using blackmail. She is breaking all the rules and hoping to wear everyone down and Parliament as a whole is letting her get away with it. Time for a lecture on Erskine May [Any relation?] I think.
My guess is that the EU will only allow a long extension and insist on us having an EU election in May.

[Tripps]

Time for a lecture on Erskine May [Any relation?

Well done for spotting the possible link between Erskine and Theresa - no one else has mentioned this yet.

I found this today from Melanie Philips. Of course the motion she speaks of, passed on Wednesday, is not binding whereas the law is. So we're leaving .

In 2016, the British voted in a referendum to leave the European Union. The withdrawal deal subsequently struck with the EU by UK Prime Minister Theresa May was widely considered so atrocious it was massively defeated in Parliament.

When the EU made certain concessions this week, MPs decided that they weren’t worth the paper on which they were written. On Tuesday evening, MPs therefore heavily defeated Mrs May’s deal for the second time. That left the legal default position of departing with no deal.

On Wednesday evening, amid uproar in the House of Commons, MPs voted not to leave with no deal under any circumstances. Yet last year they passed an Act of Parliament committing the UK to leave the EU on March 29, whether or not withdrawal terms had been agreed.

So they have now voted against themselves, the law they passed and the British people – while coming up with no agreed alternative, and with Mrs May apparently intending to attempt yet again to try to force her deal through Parliament. Cue political meltdown.

The fundamental reason for the impasse is that most MPs want to remain in the EU. They are therefore at odds with the electorate, whose fury over this perceived coup against the people is hard to exaggerate.

The crisis has the capacity to destroy both the Conservative and Labour parties and reshape British politics. Pitting Parliament against the people, it also risks terminally alienating them from democracy altogether.

[Stanley]

That seems to cover it nicely David.....
I claim the privilege of age. I have enough on my plate with Jack and fighting cancer. Bugger politics. Nothing I say or do will alter anything. If there is a general election I shall vote against the Tories. However I reserve the right to comment on how useless Parliament is turning out to be. The politicians have destroyed a workable institution by inactivity and self interest. Desperate measures are needed but I don't know what they are. Forward to oblivion!

[Stanley]

May seems to be still pursuing getting her deal through, a major part of this is that though it is denied, another massive bung seems to be going in the direction of Ireland and the DPU. Watch whet Phil does. But, Boris has put a spoke in her wheel by writing an article damning the deal in no uncertain terms.
I heard yesterday that the front runners for what looks like an impending Tory leadership race look to be Dominic Raab and Jeremy Hunt..... Deep Joy!
As usual there is no hard news or direction for industry and the PBI.....
Later, remember Olly Robbins and the overheard conversation in the Brussels bar? That reporter had it right. He reported exactly what the plan was, to run down the clock until the choice was between the flawed deal and the unthinkable.....

[plaques]

Headlines showing that Esther McVey had changed her mind on Brexit and wold be supporting Mrs May's deal. A bit of background on Esther. she resigned her cabinet position on a misunderstanding ref 'In July 2018 it was reported by the head of the National Audit Office (NAO) that McVey had misled parliament over the new Universal Credit scheme by claiming that the NAO report showed that it should be rolled out faster when in fact the report concluded that the roll-out should be paused. She apologised to the House of Commons on 4 July 2018 amid calls for her resignation.' So should we take any notice of what she says?

One for the Puzzle corner.

1 Mr Hammond declares its time for a Spring Spending review.
2 A third vote on Mrs May's deal depends on getting the DUP to change their minds.
3 Nothing within the deal has actually changed.
4 Mrs May, Hammond and the DUP have a meeting.

Question. Do you think Tea and Muffins will change the DUP's mind?