POLITICS CORNER

[Tizer]

I wonder what is going to happen about the UK border being effectively set in Calais and other Channel ports. We are hearing nothing about that. Is this why we are being nice to them?

David Davis this morning told John Humphrys that the Mayor of Calais is falling over himself to get a good deal settled. Will someone please tell Mr Davis that the Mayor of Calais has a strong vested interest and that the rest of France (and the EU) has more important issues to deal with?

[Bruff]

Pretty blatant pitch for future Tory party leadership last night by the Brexit Secretary Mr Raab. Whilst speaking at an event on Brexit and the high tech industry, he admitted that he hadn’t appreciated the significance of the Dover-Calais border, and that consumers would suffer if there were delays there. In its rank ignorance coupled with a demonstrably unenquiring mind, he could not be better suited to leading the Tories. You wonder though how he managed to hold the pen and cast his vote.

Possible leadership rival and predecessor as Brexit Secretary David Davis feeling no doubt bettered, popped up on Today this morning to present his unquestioning mind for inspection. And who can say he hasn’t now the upper hand, given what he supposedly doing only a few months back? If MPs voted down a Brexit deal Mr Davis said, the EU would have to make a better offer. Now that really is Tory leadership stuff that! Mr Davis: when you were leading the negotiations your counterpart M Barnier very kindly explained the offer the EU would make. An offer based on the choices the UK had made and consistent with legal basis of the EU. He even explained it with pictures for you! There is no better offer from the EU and there cannot be. The UK will have a Free Trade Agreement, in time. If the UK made different choices, the EU could offer other deals. But as the UK has chosen to leave the EU and the Customs Union and Single Market and ECJ oversight it is, at a stroke, a third country and so that is all that can be on offer. FTA as a competitor, third country. Davis should be grateful, not upset. It’s what he voted for, the chump.

It's the gift that keeps on giving is Brexit. As has been said by others many times and it is as true as it ever was: Brexit is the undefined being negotiated by the unprepared in order to get the unspecified for the uninformed. Poor old Barnier having to sit across the table from our lot. He must have the patience of Job

Richard Broughton

[PanBiker]

Nice post Richard and about as near to the truth as you could get, thanks.

[Stanley]

P, you could be right..... I shall try to be more positive!
Richard, "Brexit is the undefined being negotiated by the unprepared in order to get the unspecified for the uninformed" is quite brilliant use of language. The best short explanation I have seen, thanks.
I will spare you all what I think. As P says, it could sound quite negative......

[Stanley]

All I am hearing is confusion, guesses and conspiracy theories. There is evidently a rumour that there is agreement with the EU but it is so dire that May daren't come clean. Easy to see how rumours like that could arise.....
{I get the impression that Nov 11th is being used as a diversionary tactic......}

[Tripps]

"So they tackled the job that couldn't be done . . . .and couldn't do it."

[Tizer]

Richard, it's good to see you posting again, we love your pithy comments and insights, coupled with your knowledge and experience. Where are you hiding? Your OG data still reads as `Hoylake, Wirral - for the moment'. Has that moment passed and you're now another overseas member?

Perhaps it was Brexit Secretary Raab making a pitch for future Tory party leadership that prompted Jo Johnson to jump ship and pin his colours to the mast (an unfortunate mixing of metaphors, there). I must admit that I was a happy man this morning listening to J. Johnson saying we must have a chance to change our mind on Brexit. Ever since the Referendum I've bored you all with frequent reminders that Brexit might prove impossible in practice. We still have time to return to sanity.

While listening to Johnson the thought occurred to me that what I was hearing should have been coming from Labour. They've had their chance, didn't take it and now a Tory has beaten them to it. The next thing I heard was that J Corbyn has told Der Spiegel that we cannot stop Brexit. I've criticised him for not engaging enough with the news media - now I know it must be because they can't trust him to say the right thing. They should send him back to his kitchen and allotment and keep him there!

[plaques]

The next thing I heard was that J Corbyn has told Der Spiegel that we cannot stop Brexit.

Right, so its all Corbyn's fault that we got into first place? Some time ago there was a discussion whether it was possible to reverse to Brexit wagon once we had signed up to leave. I can't remember if a definitive Yes or No was agreed, it would all be down to the lawyers. In all events Mrs May put a stop to it. The second referendum logic may have been pertinent once we woke up to the fact that we were told a bunch of lies. Unfortunately, even the extent of these lies is only just coming to the surface. Going back to Corbyn what logical reason has he for asking for a second referendum? If the vox populi reverses the decision we are left with a Tory government with its Austerity business as usual. By maintaining the status quo with the Tories pulling themselves apart, the UDP threatening to sink the ship at any time, business leaders getting more frustrated by the minute, he would be a fool to hand power back to them when he has a better than even chance of winning a general election.

[Stanley]

I agree with P. I do not agree with the management of the Labour Party as you know but understand why they, and of course Corbyn, are keeping a low profile. No amount of 'opposition' will make a damn of difference, May and the Tories believe they have ultimate power and as things stand, in political terms they are right. So Labour stated their position, not to vote for anything that damaged their six points and to leave it at that. In the meantime they sit there and watch the Tories fighting between themselves and destroying their party. This is not ideal but it is good strategy and all that is possible at the moment as we are locked into the Catastrophe. If they do anything else the right wing media will use it as a diversionary tactic to shield the Tories.... I don't see what else they can do.....

[Tizer]

Going back to Corbyn what logical reason has he for asking for a second referendum?

Getting the credit for saving the UK from a terrible fate? If Brexit goes ahead it will be an awful mess for whoever inherits it.

[plaques]

Gordon Brown got the credit of saving the world from financial meltdown but this was soon forgotten and once the Tories got back in those terrible bankers to whom we had loaned £Billions gradually recovered there status and somehow by some magic alchemy their loans became our debt which we are still paying back for them after ten years. The same would happen to Corbyn, the rightwing press would put the blame on him for being intransigent in and preventing Mrs May taking the course she had voted for. I don't think Corbyn will fall for the brownie point scam when he has got running the country in his sights.

[Stanley]

I'm afraid to say That P is quite right Tiz. The blame is more fairly placed on too partisan media barons. Labour would be attacked as a diversionary tactic.
Later.... See THIS BBC report of the state of play in the Brexit matter. It's a good summary of the story so far but doesn't include the latest comments. It appears that if the Cabinet can't agree on a united position by tomorrow night (yes, it's as close as that) the vital EU meeting on the proposal will be postponed until December. This is beyond the internal deadline to start spending what could be billions of pounds on preparations for a 'no deal' situation. If it's left any longer chaos in a crash out could be inevitable.
As an example of how complicated these preparations can be, have you been listening to the man who represents the cold storage industry in the UK? He says that if there is disruption there isn't enough room in the cold stores for the increased demand to store perishable delayed goods. The supermarkets also have indicated that they have stockpiled as much as they can, they can go no further as they have no more warehouse room.
Not much reason for optimism at the moment...... We have run out of time.

[Stanley]

T May made a speech to the City yesterday and even she admits they are now in the endgame.
In years to come historians will cite Brexit as an example of how not to conduct the affairs of a country......

[Tizer]

From the BBC's Reality Check web page...
`We've been talking about the cliche of the Article 50 clock ticking for more than 18 months. But the sound that you can hear is the ticking getting louder. ' LINK

[Tripps]

Quote from Andrew Lilico - never heard of him - but he's right.

"The idea we should admire people for working until 3am for several nights in a row to complete a negotiation that's been going on for over 2 years is absurd. That's not hardy. That's incompetent. #r4today"

[Stanley]

He's right......
I see that we are told May has cracked it and she has a draft text agreed. Problem is the 27 have to agree it and Parliament. What are the odds David?
Don't clap hands yet......

[plaques]

Yesterday we were told that Brexit was 'technically' agreed. Whatever that means. Today there is a 'draft' agreement to be put before the cabinet. Its suggested that this draft may extend to 500 pages. Assuming 3 minutes to read a page that's 1500 mins = 25 hours, its going to be a long meeting. This draft will of course be broken down into the main features which will have the best spin put on them. The question is do these minister really know what there are agreeing to? I doubt it. We are then told that the legal advice on the Irish boarder issue is another 500 pages. Another 25 hours read. On top of this everything is being kept as secret as possible. I wonder why? The poor plebs have no chance at understanding what's going on. But there again that's the way they like it. Finally they have the audacity to call it democracy.

[Tizer]

This morning on `Today' William Hague said that we shouldn't have a second referendum because it will result in the UK experiencing the worst division and anger that we've had in the last hundred years. Perhaps he hasn't noticed that we've already reached that state.

[Tripps]

Ministers have resigned from the Government over a draft, outline, pre, sort of agreement which they have not even seen. Now more may do so, after a ten minute 'read' of the 500 pages.

Is it me or is it the rest of the world.

[Stanley]

I agree with all of you. This too silly to waste time commenting on anything we hear and that in itself is undemocratic!
See THIS report from the BBC for a pretty lucid and comprehensive breakdown of what is happening. No good news for anyone in here! Boris Johnson's economic adviser when he was London Mayor has just been on Today and says that buried in the small print of the draft document is the date 2030 for when we finally shake free of Europe.
I have heard all the latest news as you have. Never forget that this is Cameron's legacy. You couldn't make it up.....

[Tizer]

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has resigned.... LINK

Chuka Umunna commented: `Er...you negotiated it, you promised the earth as part of Vote Leave and now you walk off and leave others to clear up the mess? Seriously? These people are shameless.'

BBC's Laura Kuenssberg's comment...`In his own words - blimey - this might be the day it all comes tumbling down - how can all of the other Brexiteers' stay now ?'

Raab' resignation letter...



From the BBC...
How many ministers have resigned over Brexit? Dominic Raab makes it seven.
Here is the list:
Philip Lee – June 2018
David Davis – July 2018
Boris Johnson – July 2018
Steve Baker – July 2018
Guto Bebb – July 2018
Jo Johnson – November 2018
Shailesh Vara – November 2018
Dominic Raab – November 2018
There have also been four private secretaries quit along with two vice chairs of the Conservative Party.

[plaques]

Do I understand what's going on? The quick answer is NO. An an attempt an an explanation on the boarder issue is made here. Boarder issue. A sample from this article is shown..

Brexit draft agreement: Read entire 585 page document
Both the UK and EU will "use their best endeavours" to achieve a future trade agreement by July 2020 - six months before the end of the post-Brexit transition period, said the Commission.
Should this not be possible, the UK and EU could jointly agree to extend the transition period.
Alternatively, they could introduce a "backstop" arrangement from January 2021, establishing a "single EU-UK customs territory" to apply until a new trade deal is implemented, covering all goods except fishery and aquaculture products.
As part of the Protocol, a single EU-UK customs territory is established from the end of the transition period until the future relationship becomes applicable. Northern Ireland will therefore remain part of the same customs territory as the rest of the UK with no tariffs, quotas, or checks on rules of origin between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

All this sounds very complex and convoluted to a point where they are really saying is "we have agreed to disagree and meanwhile we will carry on as before until something turns up". This is that after 2 years of negotiations and gallons of midnight oil being burnt Its becoming obvious that the longer it goes on the weaker our position gets. But with a bit of luck the Tories will be able to blame it all on Corbyn.

[PanBiker]

Looks like the Tory Party are in meltdown, TM on her way to parliament, this is going to be good watching her wriggle. 1922 committee reported to have 48 letters of no confidence.

[Stanley]

I said recently it was going to get interesting. No point rehashing what you all know. I watched he 17:20 press conference in Downing Street and whilst I still think she is dead wrong and the whole concept of Brexit is a confidence trick, I have to say she did a good job of defending the indefensible. She even introduced some humour and I thought what a contrast it was with Trump's attitude to the press. Remember she has Type1 diabetes and it had been a rough day.
That said, I agree with Ken Clark who reckons that the 48 letters to trigger a No Confidence vote in the Tory Party members and a leadership race is ludicrous. Mainly because he says she would win it as there is no viable alternative candidate and enough loyal members to crush it. The ERG have lost the plot of late and it may be that they and the resigners might find they have scuppered any future political career they may have been aiming for.
As for making Gove Brexit Secretary...... Dracula and the blood bank springs to mind.
Latest news this morning is that Gove has refused the post after being told that he can't re-negotiate which was his aim. He is said to be considering his position in the Cabinet.
Arlene Foster has announced that the Tory deal with the DUP is terminated. It can only be considered again if Theresa May is replaced.

[Tizer]

I agree with you about Theresa May, I've been impressed by how well she has stood up to the immense pressure. I might not agree with her policies but by golly she's got stamina! I heard James Brokenshire on the radio this morning and he's one to keep an eye on - he certainly has the gift of the gab which is impressive for a man who had part of his right lung excised in a cancer operation recently!

Govey is being trailed by a convoy of journalists this morning, all hoping for a scoop. Will he or won't he?