POLITICS CORNER

[chinatyke]

I'm only joking!

[Stanley]

He would say that wouldn't he.....
The most likely day for a vote in Parliament seems to be Wednesday 12th of December after a few days debate (read as argument, vilification and ridicule). We, the poor bloody infantry, are, as usual, going to lose either way.
If the vote is passed as the full enormity of the situation at last dawns on the MPs, and this could happen, May becomes Thatcher Mk II and I leave you to work out the repercussions of that. If it fails we have crash out and the cliff edge which will suit the Brexiteers nicely thank you but drop the PBI further into the mire. Our only slim hope is that there is the Mother of All 'U' turns and we cancel the whole project and I don't see that as a serious runner.
Sorry lads but we are doomed to another ten years minimum of austerity and that is without Events Dear Boy.

[chinatyke]

If the vote is passed as the full enormity of the situation at last dawns on the MPs, and this could happen, May becomes Thatcher Mk II and I leave you to work out the repercussions of that.

“That such an unnecessary and irrational project as building a 'European Super-state' was ever embarked on will seem in future years to be perhaps the greatest folly of the modern era. And that Britain . . . should ever have become part of it will appear a political error of the first magnitude.”

Lady Thatcher

[plaques]

Don't worry China, I don't mind one bit. 90% of the time I've got to restrain myself from making non PC comments. That's life.

My biggest fear with a cliff edge Brexit is that we move closer and closer to America. Not that we should cut ourselves off from them completely but the World is changing and America is gradually losing its hegemony over the rest of the world. Their actions together with NATO have been the cause of the mass immigration problems into Europe and looking ahead their attitude towards Russia and Iran don't look too promising. Until Trump is out of the way its better to get the protection of the herd and keep in with the EU.

[PanBiker]

I hear on the news that Theresa May is now going on the road for the next two weeks to try and sell "her" deal to the general public. In actuality she will only scratch the surface of the general electorate. It begs the question why she would not opt for a public vote and do the job properly. I think I have answered my own question there in the last few words of the previous sentence. BBC's Jeremy Vine is doing all he can on the phone in this lunchtime to encourage support for the deal and the BBC is not biased! I know the answer to that one as well.

[Stanley]

China, good Thatcher quote but I could respond with a slew of quotes in favour from her hero Churchill. (But I shall restrain myself!)
At the root of these attitudes is the dreaded Patriotism. I have no qualms about pride in ones origins but in my experience, when someone wraps themselves in the flag, trouble is in the offing. During the Millennium Project I was asked if I was a patriot and I responded by asking who a bloke with as varied an ancestry as me should patriot for. My allegiance is to my family and my local area.
I'm with P on America. Trump shouts about America first and associates patriotism with motherhood and apple pie but appears not to have noticed what is happening in the world, particularly the east and yet he gives us advice. Did you see his tweet criticising the exit deal?
Again, there is a deeper root. 'Western Civilisation' has always held the belief that we are where all progress and 'civilisation' lies, completely ignoring the fact that while we were living in mud huts and fighting tribal wars whole continents were formulating religions and advancing science and technology. The accident of industrialisation gave us a boost and that allied with Imperialism convinced Britain particularly that we were masters of the world. That thinking is still embedded in English culture and the rabid Little Englanders on the back benches of Parliament bear witness to how destructive this can be.
I see nothing wrong with political bias if it is based on logic and rational thought. That's why, like most historians, I am 'biased' in favour of international cooperation and hence, the concept of a European Union. If this can develop into a true cooperation and not descend into another hegemony of France and Germany it could be our best hope for the future. The way to influence that is as a full member. Our present course is a conceptual disaster. Just look at the attitudes it is spawning here in the UK let alone the rest of the world. It would appear that the lessons of two great world wars have been forgotten and the structures we erected in the 1940s that have on the whole led to a better world are being eroded.
None of this has been considered in the Brexit 'debate'.

[Tizer]

After Trump has finished criticising Britain he'd better look at his own country and what he has done. The FT this morning leads with:
`General Motors shuts down 7 plants, drawing rebuke from Trump' LINK
GM will lay off thousands of workers due to the downturn in the home market and the effects of the trade wars. About 15% of GM’s North American workforce, or 8,000 salaried workers, will be cut. Another 6,000 temporary staff would be laid off or relocated.

[Stanley]

Did you hear Alan Greenspan on Trump yesterday? I think excoriating is the phrase I am looking for!
Did I hear rightly that T May is going on a trip to Argentina during her campaign to sell her deal? Or are my old ears deceiving me.
All I can say about the political news is that it is all bad and nothing would surprise me. I haven't the faintest idea what is motivating the MPs in whose hands the Parliamentary vote lies. As usual, The PBI sit and wait in the dark for the verdict of our 'leaders'. Mushrooms spring to mind.

[plaques]

A comment from a government spokesman on Trump's statement that trading with America could be in jeopardy should not be taken seriously. He said trade deals take a long time to formulate so that existing ones should continue. Contrast this with the well known Brexiters who say a trade deal can be completed almost immediately after we leave. You can't have it both ways.

[Tizer]

Did I hear rightly that T May is going on a trip to Argentina during her campaign to sell her deal? Or are my old ears deceiving me.

She's supposed to be going there for the G20 - unless she's changed her mind because of a little trouble back at home. I'm sure Rees-Mogg would lend her the price of a one-way ticket!

[Stanley]

Did you hear Rees Mogg fulminating about Mark Carney despite the fact that Carney made it abundantly clear that they had been modelling Worst Case? Mr Carney can't win when thickos like RM are flying off the handle because they haven't listened properly. It is entirely within the bank's remit to warn about these scenarios, it isn'r 'talking the pound down'. It's the Brexiteers who will do that if the BofE's model is anywhere near right.
One thing that struck me yesterday was that while we often refer to Harold's 'Events Dear Boy' we haven't really flagged up that other imponderable, 'The Law of Unintended Consequences'. We've seen examples already, Think Irish Border, shortage of cold storage facilities, lorries queuing on motorways etc. All of them could have been forecast with proper Due Diligence (Richard latched on immediately!). When Cameron had his bright idea I doubt if these things ever entered his head. Brexit is such a massive can of worms that there are bound to be more lurking in there. Life is going to be very interesting and note that even the government is talking about a 15 year bedding in period. Makes the May announcement that 'Austerity is at en end' even more unbelievable.
Whatever the outcome, this is going to be a rough ride and ask yourself who will suffer the most......

[Tizer]

The biggest Unintended Consequence would be the one I've often mentioned - the possibility that there is no safe way of leaving the EU.

The last time the Leavers were screaming Project Fear I pointed out that the Remainers were simply acting like someone who sees a man about to throw himself off a cliff - you would try to stop him for his own sake. Now they are shouting Project Hysteria and you have to ask, which side is hysterical? Again I have the image of the man about to jump off the cliff. You tell him `Don't jump, you'll be smashed to bits on the rocks below' and he replies `You're just trying to frighten me!' Some people don't know what's good for them.

[PanBiker]

Supply chains for a lot of modern medications are at risk. Many are produced by the large EU pharmaceutical giants and the fear is that there will be major delays introduced which could put patients in the UK at risk. Don't get sick!

[Stanley]

One of the biggest medical headaches is the isotopes used in radiological departments. They have limited life and cannot be stockpiled.
I have a suspicion that there are going to be many nasty surprises in the food chain. The people who are going to be affected least are the ones sourcing their food locally. The danger I see is with the big food processors and in the fast food industry which both rely so much on cheap imported ingredients, but the 'normal' food chain is so complex and time dependent that it is vulnerable.
I hear that the chemical industry in particular is voicing worries about continuity of supply of raw materials. So many of their processes are continuous and cannot function on intermittent supply.
May is quite comfortable in her stance at the moment, 'Back me or else!'. I can't help thinking that it can't be as easy as she thinks and suspect that she knows this but has no Plan 'B'.
I agree with you Tiz about the change of tone to Project Hysteria. It's panic time because nobody has any certainties. Can you imagine what the promised five days of eight hour debates is going to be like? Meanwhile, the vast majority of Joe Public, who were coerced into starting all this off, are largely totally ignorant of the dangers and still thinking in terms of EU regulations on the shape of bananas..... What a basis for fundamental change, what a cock-up!

[Tizer]

Shortage of isotopes for medical radiology departments will coincide with the other radiology crisis - we don't have enough radiologists to use the isotopes even when we have them.

This is not a time for us to risk trade problems by leaving the EU...
`WTO chief warns of worst crisis in global trade since 1947' LINK
Likewise, it's not a good time to ditch your EU friends when you're facing increased aggression from Russia, disruption due to climate change, chaos in American politics, chaos in our politics etc etc...

[PanBiker]

A couple of things that I cant quite get my head around unless you dismiss them as pure time wasting. Why is May peddling her way to the general public when its purely a parliamentary matter now? Also why fanny around waiting two weeks to put it to parliament. Once ratified by the EU (because they wrote most of it), it could have gone straight to the vote in our parliament, (emergency session). This would have allowed the maximum time for further discussion about the way forward, plenty of time to organise and election if that was required. The infrastructure is there, it only needs a dictate to the local authorities to make it happen. Filibustering comes to mind or more likely headless chicken.

[plaques]

it's not a good time to ditch your EU friends when you're facing increased aggression from Russia,

Are we sure the aggression has been started by Russia. Nato, read America has been lobbying for the Ukraine to become part of Nato. Then America could place its missile right up to the Russian border, remember that little upset between Kennedy and Khrushchev ? Of course Russia is not too pleased about this so why would they encourage extra friction with Ukraine which would accelerate this move? Secondly, Russia is building an enormous gas pipeline through Europe which would supply gas cheaper than the liquefied gas that the Americans are selling. Why jepodise this potential money spinner? Going back to the main point 'who are the aggressors'?

[Stanley]

I agree with you Tiz.
Ian, you are right, May's strategy is incomprehensible, likewise her goofing about with photo calls in Argentina when Phil was there anyway. Is she just putting off the inevitable show-down in Parliament?
P. As usual you echo my thoughts.... Russia is a very convenient excuse for policies that actually have nothing to do with Putin. We are not allowed to know what the actual motives are but all I am certain of is that Russia has been used as a bogey man since the 19th century. Remember that hostilities were suspended when we needed them to defeat Hitler for us. They were the biggest single factor but have never been given credit. I do not agree with some of their policies of course but on the whole they are doing exactly what we have done in the west and with considerably more success! Any objective view of Putin as a politician has to admit that he has played a blinder whether we like it or not.
I heard a Norwegian politician on World service this morning talking about Norway's history of engagement with the EU and he said something that struck a chord.... "Referendums tend to polarise opinions." Bleeding obvious really but it fits exactly with Cameron's Catastrophe which has split everyone regardless of party allegiance.

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report of May at the G20 trying to sell her Brexit plan to world leaders and making optimistic noises about trade deals. The general consensus is that she is wasting her time and simply trying to generate 'good news' to bolster her case in Parliament.
The mice have been playing while she is away. Another Cabinet member has resigned and the general view is that she is going to go down in flames in the Brexit debate and that a leadership election is now almost inevitable. She is refusing to answer any questions about her fate, employing the same tactics as in the disastrous general election, simply repeating PR mantras over and over again when asked for a direct answer.
This looks like a Party in total disarray. Nice timing lads!

[Tizer]

Is it true that issues of Private Eye magazine feature a `Where's Corby' game? Or was Ian Hislop pulling my leg this morning? I can easily believe they would do one because, as I've written here in the past, those of us not members of the Labour Party wonder if the man really exists! (Or is John McDonnell really Corby in disguise?)

[PanBiker]

Jeremy Corbyn doesn't actually have to do anything at the moment. The Tories are doing very well ripping themselves apart without any prompting. When TM has finished wasting everyone's time, a week on Tuesday should be very entertaining in "The House" You have to laugh at her self inflicted predicament as antidote to crying over the state they have taken the country to.

[Stanley]

No, Ian Hislop wasn't kidding, they have a regular Corbyn column which takes the mickey out of him but if you read it carefully, makes some telling points. Ian was good wasn't he in that interview....
I agree with our Ian, Labour haven't had to do anything at all about attacking the Tories, they have simply left them alone while they attack each other. Labour aren't the only ones who have adopted this tactic and now even some of the right wing press is helping the cause, they can see what is coming. The Wilderness Years.....
I don't know who it was but I heard some jerk politico saying that the country was gung-ho for Brexit and would weather the storm. I wondered about all the people in dire straits already. Do you think they will be as enthusiastic over the next XX years? (Insert your own figure, on my reckoning, worst case it could be 50 at least.) Obvious that they didn't enter his calculations, they have been written off.
Once again May (or her advisers) have committed the cardinal political error of locking down their policy decision. Being 'bloody difficult' was a failure and so is this one because they will not accept any meaningful amendments in the 5 day debate. It's going to be a blood bath if the Tory back benchers don't crumble at the last minute and even then the numbers look dreadful.

[Stanley]

I think PE will forgive me for demonstrating that Ian was telling the truth.

[Tizer]

I love satire. Every Saturday in The Times Hugo Rifkind does a `My Week' spoof based on someone or something in the news. Last Saturday was Mark Carney (excuse the photo quality, it looked OK on my PC)...

[chinatyke]

What strikes me is that whichever party is in power stays there until the voters have had enough of them. Then the other lot take over and the country goes from bad to worse. Then the other lot are reinstated and so on ad infinitum! What a way to run a country! I can't decide which party is worse!