POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

P, I think it might have collapsed already! As regards your search for an insight into Russian history I found that the best way to get into it was to look at the history of neighbouring states and Europe as a whole. If you are ready for a good challenging read try the two volume history of Poland by Norman Davies; 'God's Playground'. The poles think it's the best general history of their nation ever written. It will give you a lot of insights.
Did you hear the Noble Lord Sugar on Today? He was asked to comment on productivity but rabbited on about production. He hadn't even understood the question!
Why won't somebody admit that productivity is a function of the education and motivation of the work force allied to the willingness of the owners of businesses to invest? This miserable administration has concentrated on its own interests and ignored these basic facts. What they also fail to realise is that by pursuing the policies they have espoused they are demolishing the foundations of the structure they rely on.
Did you hear the Captain of Industry (I think he was from BAe) telling a Commons Committee we had got our priorities wrong as criticising Saudi Arabia's Human Rights record was 'unhelpful' to efforts to sell the Typhoon fighter plane. Of Course! Why didn't we realise that!
More confusion on Brexit as David Davies suggested under questioning that Parliament might not get a vote on the final deal until we have left. Immediate rebuttal (Sorry, clarification!) from the PM and his office. Why are we getting the impression that they haven't got internal agreement yet on the process let alone the progress.
re. the row about That Letter to the universities. I note this morning that any discussion about Brexit is described as 'bias'. Mention of leaving is 'support'.

[plaques]

Why won't somebody admit that productivity is a function of the education

. In the old days, dare I say in the age of steam, people could look forward to a job for life. One of the biggest challenges today is that technology is moving at such a pace that techniques and working practices are lucky to last 10 years. This means that people will be moving up and down ladders at an ever increasing speed. Unfortunately, some people may drop off the ladder never to get a foothold again. If we are going to meet the challenge of changing technology then education must be a continuous process and not stop at a single level or point in time. People with a proven track record mustn't just be thrown on the scrap heap and expected to start again without a system being in place to provide assistance in further education. Businesses face a similar problem, without change they can soon go to the wall against a new upstart. The government and banks must create the conditions where utilizing new technology is encourage and not left up to the individual firm to bet their shirt that they have made the correct decision.

[Tizer]

re. the row about That Letter to the universities. I note this morning that any discussion about Brexit is described as 'bias'. Mention of leaving is 'support'.

The Daily Mail is screaming out this morning about those nasty academics in universities who are warning against Brexit. It's appealing to those of its readers who can't see, or won't see, that the academics are simply trying to prevent us from making one of the biggest mistakes in UK history.

[plaques]

listened to Alistair Cambell V Julie Hartley Brewer Link. . Not very enjoyable and always suspicious of Campbell but Ms Brewer went over the top with her leave argument. If this is what the rightwingers actually believe the we are all doomed. Get out at all costs seems to be the mantra never mind the logic about trade deals etc; On balance Campbell a staunch remainer was right.

[Tizer]

This was reported in The Times on Saturday but I haven't seen or heard anything about it elsewhere. Did they make it up or have all the other news media missed it?
`Computer upgrade for MoD is £900 million fiasco' LINK
A £900 million IT upgrade across the armed forces has been suspended after a series of failings for which the Ministry of Defence has blamed its supplier, an American technology company [DXC Technology]. A memo circulated internally this week reveals that the long-awaited plan to switch to an IT system that stores data remotely has been halted indefinitely with immediate effect after problems with its installation at the army’s headquarters in Andover, Hampshire. “The suspension has been implemented due to the supplier failing to deliver certain contractual obligations and timelines,” the memo said.

I found the most disturbing bit of the story was that all the data would be stored on `Microsoft's cloud'. Heaven help us!

In other news today I see that we are considering selling off some of our warships. Fancy that. Just when we are annoying our allies we sell of our defences and become more dependent on their's.

[Stanley]

Private Eye has mentioned the MOD cock-up Tiz along with others. This is a depressingly familiar story and has been repeated in the NHS of course. Did you hear the head of HMRC being questioned in Committee yesterday? Give him his due he was refreshingly honest about preparations for looking after our own customs after Brexit. He admitted that the money they have been promised is not enough and one of the main components in the shortfall is an entirely new computer system which is not going well. Remember the Post Office?
As for our navy..... least said the better! By the way, there was a notice in Private Eye that 'Squarebasher' their very reliable defence correspondent, has died. He was my main source and very accurate.
See THIS for a surprising development in Australian politics. Barnaby Joyce, the Deputy PM has been disqualified because he is technically a citizen of a foreign country. I'm all in favour of upholding sound laws but this seems to be a bit silly. He is one of five MPs who will have to face an immediate by-election on the same grounds.

[Tizer]

`Retail sector sees significant drop in activity' CBI
"Retail sales declined sharply in the year to October, disappointing expectations for a solid expansion, according to the latest monthly CBI Distributive Trades Survey. The survey of 106 firms, of which 49 were retailers, showed that in the year to October, retail sales fell at the quickest rate since March 2009 – the height of the financial crisis. Overall, sales for the time of year were considered to be slightly below seasonal norms. Meanwhile, orders placed on suppliers also dropped at the fastest rate since March 2009....."

`Jeremy Corbyn 'Can Become PM' If He Wins A Few Hundred Votes In Small Towns Battleground - New Research' LINK
"Jeremy Corbyn can become Prime Minister by swinging just a few hundred voters towards Labour in 45 small towns across the UK, research from a new think tank has found. Analysis for Centre For Towns, to be launched next month, suggests that Corbyn can win the keys to Downing Street if he and his party can break out of their “Metropolitan” base in Britain’s big cities....."

[Stanley]

I noted that as well Tiz. (LINK)
Did you see Boris doing his 'get up and go' 'speech' aimed at the EU? I say 'speech' because it seemed to me more like an incoherent blabbering with his brain out of gear. No wonder the world is looking on with amazement as we commit political and economic suicide. The nearest analogy I can get is headless chickens or rabbits frozen in the headlights. I see no evidence of serious assessment and decision-making.
Have I missed something?

[Stanley]

There is no word on the most important matter, Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn's attack on sexism in public life is timely and important but should not be the main item of news. I get the feeling we are sleepwalking towards the cliff edge.

[plaques]

Jeremy Corbyn's attack on sexism in public life is timely and important

Perhaps its a preemptive strike against the rightwing press who will take every opportunity to say Labour isn't really interested promoting equality for women. The recent cases of alleged sexual harassment by Labour MPs would give them an open licence to read it across the whole organisation. On the other hand it could be part of a Machiavellian plot to keep Mrs May in position as prime minister. Any attempt by the Brexiters to oust her could be spun to make it sound it as though it was because she was a woman. Why is life so complicated. Bloody politics.

[Stanley]

I couldn't agree more P. In our state of ignorance we are reduced to reading the entrails.....
As the morning goes on it becomes obvious that Parliament has its head up its own fundamental orifice because instead of concentrating on the most important matter, Brexit, they are going full tilt into a witch hunt on inappropriate behaviour. I can hear them laughing in Brussels from here. Come to think, Brexit is important to them as well and they might simply be shaking their heads in amazement.

[Tizer]

I think they, European politicians and public both, are surprised and very disappointed that we've abandoned the big project designed to foster and promote European unity. We tried hard in the past to get away from the old divisions and the habit of switching sides and instead to move towards a peaceful continent, tolerance of different views and a celebration of different cultures. And now we're throwing it all away. I find it appalling to think we had the chance to help mould Europe into a region that upheld similar beliefs to our own and now we've encouraged division and a shift towards extremism, selfish thoughts and actions, and a lack of compassion. All this at a time when we should be doing even more to unite against Trumpism, ISIS, N Korea, extremism, climate change, antibiotic resistance etc. Let's be honest, Brexit is a stupid thing to do and we're doing it under false pretences - most of those who voted to Leave where mis-informed. And Cameron made a stupid mistake by holding a referendum on such a critical issue.

[plaques]

Ever since Harold Wilson's time, and who can remember that, Great Britain has been on the decline. Successive governments have all promised to restore our previous glory. This of course is pie in the sky. None of them have been able to stop or even slow down this slide into obscurity. Every league table that gets published and it doesn't matter on which subject we are talking about puts us lower and lower down the table. Sometimes we may even get as low as 32 out of 33. Then, in an attempt to show the world how good we can be at achieving peak stupidity we voted for Brexit. Being in the EU is probably the only chance of saving our bacon. Somehow by casting off from Europe and towing GB into mid Atlantic we could make ourselves great again. Lets face it its time to hide among the herd, the peg that stands up gets hit. Common sense seems to be in short supply.

[Stanley]

Tiz..... exactly. I have complained constantly that the broad concept of cooperation with Europe and the wider world has not been cited at all, either in the referendum or the subsequent 'discussions'. It's money, money money all the way.
P. I can.... His version of the Greater Britain was the white heat of technology. In 1853 the quality of recruits for the Crimean war was so poor that it triggered a debate on public health and living conditions that went on for fifty years. After 1870 it became apparent that we had lost the edge in industrial supremacy, the rest of the world was catching up after the 'Industrial Revolution'. By 1900 the Liberals were a radical party but sliding towards the Centre and that was the start of the moves to democratic Socialism that led to the Labour Party (And even Communism by 1921). The Great War changed everything and left us impoverished. The least said about the total mismanagement of the Inter-war years the better. The Second World War was a great victory that left us broke and with a crumbling Empire. We have been living on the kudos of 'Britain Standing Alone' and 'punching above our weight' ever since and you are right. Time to stop spending squillions on vanity projects, accept that we are no longer the Empire on which the sun never sets and become world leaders in peaceful cooperation and improvement. Nationalism and Power are ancient concepts and will eventually have to be consigned to the dustbin of history. One of the biggest drags on the UK at the moment is undeserved inherited privilege, the hegemony of the Establishment and the cancer of 'Tradition'. Our Parliamentary political system is a microcosm of all that is wrong. That is why world-wide we are seeing calls for change and eventually it will happen but as long as it is resisted we will see the rise of the far-right, nationalism, racism and fascism with yearnings for the mythical 'Strong Leaders' who will solve all the ills at a stroke.
The cliff edge we are marching towards is far more serious that the relatively minor matter of Brexit.
So there..... (What the hell do I know about it anyway!)
Later.... Isn't it strange that despite inappropriate behaviour being rife in society the Nelsonan Eye is used on it but as soon as it hits the Commons (and this morning's reports suggest it is as big as the Expenses scandal) immediate action is called for. My suggestion is that whatever they come up with should be applicable to the whole of society.

[plaques]

the Nelsonan Eye is used on it

Contrary to what is believed Nelson wasn't blind in one eye. He suffered an injury near his eye are would often bandage it up to avoid infection. From this we can take it Parliament has known all along what has been going on and has seen with both eyes the abuses that women have had to endure.
The latest clash between Alistair Campbell and John Redwood on the Brexit negotiations. Link, Viewing only recommended for masochists and self-harmers. The most telling comment was " why when the 'leavers' were initially saying that trade deals with the EU would be so easy to arrange and that they would be of mutual advantage they are now say drop the idea of a deal and come out without one?" We are being dragged along into the abyss.

[Tizer]

`Bank of England believes Brexit could cost 75,000 finance jobs' LINK
I read an interview with Michael Bloomberg in The Times and he was scathing about Brexit and Trump. He was going to put himself forward for President but backed down for fear of spoiling Clinton's chances. He's a UN envoy for the cities and the environment and is appalled by Trump's attitude to the climate change and the Paris Accord.

[Stanley]

P. Redwood is dangerous. I was told that years ago by a senior civil servant who worked under him when he was under-secretary for Wales. I have never forgotten that and have seen nothing to change that assessment. I reckon my friend was right, the man is barking!
Did you see THIS BBC report on the visit to Barnier in Brussels? If nothing else it demonstrates clearly that our 'strategy' is to say the least confused! Ken Clarke was very cagey when asked if any agreement on the three principles could be reached by next month but my sense was that what he wanted to say was 'no, it's a shambles' but he kept stum. No wonder May is avoiding a debate, I think it would surprise everyone. I increasingly get the feeling that it is a minority of rabid right-wingers who are driving this through with the threat of destroying the Tory Party if they don't get their way. I'm beginning to think that unless something changes, a hard Brexit is a racing certainty if these men aren't stopped.

[Stanley]

See THIS for a balanced BBC report of the resignation of Michael Fallon. I can't help thinking that we don't know the full story here but it will all come out in the wash. I have an idea the name Werrity might crop up shortly..... One thing is certain, Fallon's resignation over this comparatively minor historic allegation has set the bar for the rest of the suspects....
I heard a commentator this morning say that the febrile atmosphere in Parliament as the 'behaviour affair' gathers momentum is a reflection of the fragile nature of the Leadership and Tory Party Unity as anything else and I have to agree. There is the possibility that a major scandal, perhaps bigger than expenses, is gathering strength. When this comparison was first raised a few days ago it was dismissed out of hand. Not so now.....
Thanks for PE for reminding me that in the discussions about terrorist usage of encrypted services like Whatsapp, Amber Rudd said "there is no reason for normal people to use a service like this". Tell that to the Tory rebels and the women who have been the subject of inappropriate behaviour! Tell Angela Leadsom as well, remember her complaining that Boris wasn't a member of their Whatsapp group?
The B of E are expected to raise interest rates .25% today. The first rise in ten years. Time will tell whether the economy can stand even this most minor disturbance.
Interesting times..... and meanwhile is anyone minding the Brexit shop?
A stray thought enters my head.... Can anyone remember Cameron calling a female MP 'Dearie' in the House? What effect would that have now.......?

[Tripps]

If, like me, you have never heard of the new Secretary of State for Defence, Gavin Williamson - you may find this link helpful.

[Stanley]

There are some very strange conspiracy theories knocking about in the Village that reminds one of Michael Dobbs and 'House of Cards'. Truth imitating fiction?

[Stanley]

You've all seen the news this morning of plots, counter-plots and accusations of impropriety, no need to go over them again apart from saying that this is much worse that the expenses scandal, sleaze doesn't begin to address what is coming to light.
Meanwhile of course Theresa May is fighting to keep the party together and her leadership on track. As Harold said "Events Dear Boy!" and it doesn't get much worse than this.
What makes it worse of course is that ostensibly we are working to reach agreement with the EU on Brexit. This would seem to be a shambles at the moment, EU spokespersons say that no concrete proposals are being proffered and all Davies says is that we are looking forward to really good progress next week in Brussels. Does anyone believe him?
Also, in case you had forgotten Spreadsheet Phil is working on the financial statement, in effect the Budget. This has had several large holes blown in it on the last few weeks and I doubt if anyone would want his job.
All told, what a mess!!!

[Stanley]

I always take a lot of notice of any opinion given by John Pienaar, the BBC political correspondent. His opinion is that there is an atmosphere of fear and trepidation in the Westminster Village, worse than the Expenses Scandal or John Major's problems with 'sleaze' (remember 'back to basics'?). The word is that the Sunday papers have got their teeth into this and will inject more names in. We have the usual suspects declaring that this is a 'witch hunt' and they might be right but if it is it's a necessary one and I hope the message spreads out into the wider world where it is just as big a problem. Harriet Harman has got it right, it's time to clean the stables.
I have often voiced my disquiet about the way relationships between men and women are portrayed, particularly in the Soaps like Eastenders. That's why I can't engage with them, I think it's terrible. I am sure I was an Andy Capp in my younger days but soon learned. I am reminded of Lord Acton; "All power tends to corrupt......" This is the root of the problem here, abuse of power. The same thing could be said about political policies that are regressive, like Austerity. The secrecy surrounding Brexit is yet another example, we can be forgiven for suspecting that there is an agenda here which we have not been made aware of. There is a web of questionable practice in the links between policy makers, their unpaid 'Political Advisers' and the elements of our financial industry that stand to profit most from current policies on Brexit, the NHS, Pensions and arms procurement. We don't know the details but I think we all recognise that there is a bad smell.
If this present shake-out does anything to focus attention on these wider matters I am totally in favour but I have to tell you that, being a realist. I am not holding my breath!
Have a look at THIS and skim through the headlines on the BBC Politics page.... Meanwhile, who's minding the Brexit shop?

[Tizer]

Listening to the news stories of Damian Green denying there were pornographic images on his computer took me back about 5 years or more to when I was arguing - perhaps on OG - that it would be relatively easy to trash a politican's career by dumping such images on their computer, or other dodgy files such as secret dealings, apparent collusion with enemies of the state etc. No computer is immune to attack by those with the necessary skills. At the time, because of the the things that were occupying the news media, I was thinking primarily of images associated with paedophilia. But times have moved on and here we are in an era where peddling false news and instigating false stories have become everyday events.

If we are going to change attitudes to what's acceptable or not between individuals, especially men's attitudes to women, one of the first things we must do is make all educational institutions, from primary schools to universities, mixed sex. Don't bring up youngsters in isolation from the other sex. (At the same time we should make all those institutions mixed religion, including those with no religion).

[Stanley]

So true Tiz. I've always thought there is a large dose of female in my make-up because I have always preferred the company of women to men. I hate the constant harping, in 'locker room' conversation, on sex and competitive sport. Above all I hate 'banter' which I have always seen as a form of bullying.
Again, you've all seen the headlines, this scandal is growing, a dam has been broken. Just like the CSA revelations, the pent up anger and force of historical abuse has been unleashed and people are talking instead of burying trauma. Good!! The resulting revelations are messy and sometimes trivial and unfair but omelettes require the breaking of eggs.
The CBI meet today and will be expecting to hear positive facts from Theresa May today about Brexit. I fear they will be disappointed! The CBI are forecasting more bad news, the imminent loss of up to a third of jobs because of technology....
It struck me this morning that the state of the Tory Party and the unknown effects of the sex scandals and Paradise Papers ensures that there could hardly be a worse climate for the biggest political mistake in my lifetime. Further, it's too late for my favourite solution, a war footing coalition to decide on strategy. We are in the hands of a rudderless and fractured political party. Tin hats on lads!

[Tizer]

This news from Graham Hacche of the National Institute for Economic and Social ­Research (NIESR) seems to have only managed a small `nib' at the bottom of the Telegraph's front page but warrants greater attention. It's more important than whether the queen has some money in the Cayman Islands!
`Crash fears escalate as markets hit highs not seen since Black Tuesday and dotcom disaster' LINK
"Soaring stock market valuations on both sides of the Atlantic are stoking fears of a looming correction as valuations hit levels not seen since the dotcom bubble and the eve of the Wall Street crash. Stocks are trading at levels only previously reached in the run-up to Black Tuesday and the tech collapse of 2000, fuelling concerns among economists that markets are destined for a devastating reversal that would throw world economic growth off track. “In both cases, sharp market ­declines followed these high readings,” warned Graham Hacche at the National Institute for Economic and Social ­Research (NIESR). Pointing to the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (the Shiller CAPE ratio), rising to above 30, Mr Hacche said that this indicated “markets may have become increasingly vulnerable to shocks”, which “could have significant negative repercussions on private consumption and investment”....
Tin hat time indeed!