POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

Tiz, I heard that interview as well, that little lass was right!
The appointment of Osborne as editor of the standard is so bizarre that it begs the question of an agenda behind it. One assumes that Ossie is broadly in favour of Remain. Ian is right about ten years of negotiation and austerity and at some point the electorate is going to get so fed up that there could be a sea change. Instead of the 'Remainers' being vilified and told they are suffering from Sour Grape Syndrome they may come back into favour. It's all getting complicated isn't it.....
One thing is certain, Theresa May can put a brave face on things and continue on her Jingoistic course but her survival (and perhaps the Tory majority) all depend on a massive gamble based on a basket of unknowns. My guess is that it is all going to backfire on them and if ever we needed a unified and effective Opposition it is now! At the moment this is the SNP..... Bit ironic isn't it.
Bruff was right and I totally agree with him. This is madness and can only end in tears.

[Tizer]

When you work in an advertising-funded publication the editorial staff comes second and they have to bow to the wishes of the advertising staff. Also they mustn't upset the advertisers or their friends. So his performance will be judged on how well he can tiptoe through that minefield.

[Tizer]

The word is that the Tories are moving towards an early election. That's going to be `interesting'! Who will I vote for? Not for May, not for Corbyn, not for UKIP, not for the Greens. I guess it's going to be a `protest vote' for the LibDems! Perhaps many other folk will want to make a protest vote - who is our equivalent of Donald Trump? Start thinking about it now because it could be upon us soon!

[plaques]

who is our equivalent of Donald Trump?

A man of Turkish descent "Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson PC MP, known as Boris Johnson". Boris During his time as Brussels foreign correspondent was considered, Quote" fundamentally intellectually dishonest" . Just the man to create the biggest cockup you have ever seen.

[Tizer]

Or it could be Nigel `The Come Back Kid' Farage. But neither really seem to be up to Trump standard. We'll have to do better than this, we don't want the yanks outdoing us in the `Big Loudmouth President' stakes.

[plaques]

Wait a minute, Boris is an American citizen. He could go for the Presidency after he becomes Prime minister or he could possibly do both at the same time!

[Tripps]

I think you'll find he renounced his USA citizenship when he found he was liable for USA taxes - or that's what he said he was doing - can never be sure what 's true and what's not these days.

Tax avoidance

[plaques]

Looking at Wiki. Renunciation of citizenship. Boris We get : Quote.."In 2015, the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, threatened to renounced his U.S. citizenship after the IRS asserted that he owed tax on the gain on the sale of his house in London. (Of course, he had threatened to do so in 2006 as well.)"
What the exact position is I don't know. Now if he published his tax returns.....

[Stanley]

The Law of Unintended Consequences has struck again! Ossie was regarded as an oik by the Bullingdon Club members but is now by far the most 'successful' of them. The SNP have shown they are serious about a new independence referendum 'before Spring 2019' and if they get it will reapply for membership of the EU. This has triggered Northern Ireland and the betting now must be on a referendum for either independence or amalgamation with the South. One thing is certain, they see the re-imposition of a hard border with the South as disastrous and the Unionists are in decline. These trends are making May's slim majority look very shaky just at the time when she needs solidarity most. This is why there is talk of a snap election. Her backbenchers have woken up and are remembering Gordon Brown's failure to go for a ballot after he took over from Blair which is generally seen to be a mistake. I'm not too sure if they have the balls to do it and what looked like resurgence a week ago is now more like a war zone.
At the Liberals Spring Conference Farron makes some quite reasonable comparisons between May, Trump, Wilders and le Penn. Others are noting the same trend towards 'the wrong kind of Populism'.
I always said that the referendum was Cameron's Catastrophe but I never saw this lot coming. Meanwhile. May's voice becomes even more shrill as she spouts clichés about 'This Glorious Union' sounding like the leader of the Guides at a posh girl's school. Things can only get worse!

[Tizer]

With Tom Watson warning about Momentum and May being pressured by the ultra-right-wing Tory faction it seems like the two main political parties are in a contest to see who can melt down first!

"May's voice becomes even more shrill...sounding like the leader of the Guides at a posh girl's school."
In that case perhaps she should meet up with US Secretary of State Rex Tilleron instead of Donald Trump. Tillerson is described as "a long-time volunteer with the Boy Scouts of America, and from 2010 to 2012 was their national president, its highest non-executive position."

[Tripps]

Looking at Wiki. Renunciation of citizenship. Boris We get : Quote.."In 2015, the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, threatened to renounced his U.S. citizenship after the IRS asserted that he owed tax on the gain on the sale of his house in London. (Of course, he had threatened to do so in 2006 as well.)"
What the exact position is I don't know. Now if he published his tax returns.....

In the era of 'post truth' and 'fake news' this is interesting. One source says he has renounced his American citizenship, another says that he has not, but has merely 'threatened to do so. Which is true? In an age of the internet, Wiki, 24 hour news, and people's ever decreasing attention, span, (and gullibility), it's hard to say, and at present I don't quite know which story to believe.

I offer this from the Guardian. There seems to be some credible sourcing here, and given more time one could probably check it out.

"A list released by the US Treasury department showed the UK foreign secretary was one of 5,411 individuals to renounce his American citizenship in 2016."

Boris citizenship

[Stanley]

"With Tom Watson warning about Momentum and May being pressured by the ultra-right-wing Tory faction it seems like the two main political parties are in a contest to see who can melt down first!"
I agree Tiz. I have been saying ever since the Expenses Scandal that UK politics is in melt-down and seeing signs of shifts in the tectonic plates. For a while I doubted but now I am as certain as I can be that the old order is changing. The big problem isn't the change but the fact that the Tory and Labour parties are in denial about this and both are ripping themselves apart by revisiting old party disputes, the Tories with Europe and Labour with left wing entryism. Both are riven by claim and counter claim and this situation can't improve until we get some Corbyn type honesty (Yes, despite all the problems I think he has the right idea!) The Tories should admit that Cameron's Catastrophe was a massive mistake but they now have to unite and deal with it. At the moment they have retreated into 19th century Tory DNA, May's antagonistic stance is evidence of this. There is no real effort to cooperate with opponents, just selfish demands and diktats. Labour have got to admit that what is actually happening is a battle between the MPs and the membership over control of the party. Both stances are equally non-productive.
May has set the date of March 29th to show she is serious. The EU have had plenty of time to consider their position and on the evidence so far we are heading for the infamous 'cliff edge'. The EU can't possibly let the UK be better off outside the Project and must impose hard conditions to discourage the other member nations. They can't let the UK have a good deal. My prediction is that in the absence of an extension, we will end up with WTO rules and complete severance. We faced ten further years of austerity as it was, you can extend this in generational terms now. It remains to be seen what effect this has by 2020 when the public start to waken up to reality.
In all this remember Harold's dictum; "Events dear boy". Global influences aren't looking rosy!
Mean while in another part of the forest..... The Trump v. The hill battle in the US is extraordinary. In effect the intelligence services have called the President a liar and this provoked by them being ordered to testify by the Representatives and Senators. The White House is not backing down but says that time will tell as more evidence emerges. This applies not only to the Obama wire-tapping allegations but to the Trump/Russia axis as well. God knows where this will end.....
In short, I see no evidence to support optimism as I watch these shenanigans and the melt-down of essential public services.

[Stanley]

Just imagine the frenzied activity in Whitehall as The Letter is prepared.... How much attention is being paid to the normal processes of government?
News yesterday that the Cost of Living index has risen to 2.3%, on the verge of overtaking wage increases. (LINK) It's worse than you think because we all know that the increase in the price of essentials, in other words the shopping basket of the poorest, is always higher than the national figure which includes some reductions in price of higher value goods and services. Mark Carney says it is only a 'data point'. If you are in poverty it's a bit more serious than that but who is taking notice?
Question is, will the process of Brexit bring prices down? I doubt it but of course you are allowed to be more optimistic!

[Stanley]

I have every sympathy with the families of those caught up in the murders in London yesterday and those whose children were at risk. However, I have to wonder what the definition of 'terrorist' is. I think the odds are that this is the classic case of the lone nutter with a bee in his bonnet. I can't help remembering the fact that many questioned the government about increased risk of being targets for extremist action when we threw our lot in with Bush and the ill fated Iraq incursion. Blair in particular denied this and said that it was all about eliminating terror attacks at their root. I don't think it worked.
I am vaguely disturbed by the tone of those who felt they had to make 'statements'. I got the sense that May had an agenda when she made her inspirational announcement about unity and preserving normal life. This from a PM who is in the middle of making the biggest intrusion into normal life since WW2.
Later. It struck me that some people reading the above might think I a bit too laid back about yesterday's attack, perhaps even callous. If so I apologise. Remember that I was reared with wholesale death and destruction on my doorstep and as I have said many times before it alters you. You know all too well that I certainly do have feelings and understand death and loss but perhaps am able to keep a tighter rein on these feelings than younger people who haven't been exposed to the same experiences. I thought this rider was perhaps needed......

[Tripps]

I have to wonder what the definition of 'terrorist' is.

Really? I think this guy qualifies quite easily for the label. The BBC persist in calling him 'the attacker '. I have channel hopped on the radio since the early hours - LBC are the winners - Nick Ferrari calls him 'the murderer' .

[Whyperion]

Interesting that BBC Parliament this morning was carrying HoC committee on activities of Iran that took place yesterday.
At Westminster it is difficult to work out what further protection could be reasonable. Bollards along the edge of the pavement over the bridge might be one, a long-term road re-working removing private vehicles from Parliament Square another, traffic calming and check pinch points another, I see more concrete lego blocks are going in around the palace of westminster, the vehicle entrance to the car park always is a weaker link, Parliament didn't want too many armed officers on what is generally an area less near to the MPs and staff but I am surprised that the police officer did not have effective anti-stab vests (but given it is reported as an 8in machete the body may not have been the main target).

[Whyperion]

If a target inflation rate is 2.5%ish, and the main reason for the increases have been the fall in value of £ since brexit - meaning large cos and financiers generally benefit, while keeping public sector pay increases at or near zero, and most work-related benefits (including the likes of the megre carers allowance) at zero, then this over a couple of years is a reduction in available cash to spend of over 5% , which a reduction in spending power most shops should not be surprised that revenues are not rising as fast as an increased working population might imply.

[Tizer]

In the news reports I note the voices being raised once again over whether or not our police should be armed. We need to start thinking outside the box to sort this one. `Armed' in this debate usually means armed with a gun. Instead we need to work out what would be the most effective means of control and defence for police in situations such as defending the Houses of Parliament. Obviously we need some police to have guns to counter the use of guns by terrorists and to provide effect over a large distance, but it didn't need a gun to deal with the man who stabbed the PC yesterday.

In my late teens I practised judo and the trainer was an ex-military policeman who had served in the Far East. As well as judo he also taught jujitsu, karate, kendo and the techniques he had learnt in places like the Shanghai waterfront. His solution for protecting Parliament would be to have some police with guns but others with stout sticks; some with long sticks and some short. Those with the long sticks would be taught kendo which was how samurai warriors practised their sword fighting - not slashing attacks like Pirates of the Caribbean but extremely fast movements achieved by a flick of the wrists. The stick can keep a man with a knife at bay and also can be used to disable him with a blow to the head, collar bone, elbow, wrist, knee etc. A running man is easily toppled by putting the end of the stick through his legs. The long stick was of less use in a crowd or indoors and that's where the short stick performed better. Longer than a truncheon, this is also used in a different manner; held with the hands spaced apart it's used close up to jab rather than swing. The force concentrated in the end of the stick is great enough to break bones and attackers can also be disabled by even a low-power jab to the solar plexus. A jab to the temple is usually fatal.

So there is plenty of scope for `arming' police without increasing the use of guns. Long sticks outside Parliament, short sticks indoors please. And if the going gets really bad they can always call in the Beefeaters - long sticks with a very nasty looking sharp blade on the end, guaranteed to deter!

[Bruff]

The policemen and women right by the entrances to Parliament tend to be older, personable and avuncular characters with a smile and chat for anyone passing by and making eye contact. They are always chatting and joshing with the passing public and the MPs and staff who walk through and perhaps why some MPs today have expressed the view of them as their ‘village policeman’ because well, it’s only in the Westminster Village this remembrance of past times persists. Often they pose for photos with tourists and particularly children because first they fit the archetype of the ‘British Bobby’ with the traditional helmet etc., and second, there’s a cracking view of Big Ben in the background. For these reasons they aren’t armed, this being reserved for their colleagues only a few feet away. It would be a shame if they were to become armed or lose this character.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

I agree Richard. If you 'arm' police to counter any possible attack you end up with the robocop image complete with masks that we see now in the Armed Response Units. This damages one of the main roles of the police, to interact with the public, essential to good policing as any bobby will tell you.
Tiz, I had a pair of ex police trousers for many years and the truncheon pocket was very useful! In my younger days the constables had truncheons and the beat sergeant a night stick. One of their most effective unofficial weapons was the folded cape over the shoulder, very effective against knife attack. A little known ploy was to weight the hem of the cape with small sections of lead pipe on cord. This meant that a blow with a folded cape swung at full speed was a very serious hit!
I was taught unarmed combat in the army and one useful tip was that a webbing belt wrapped round your hand with the buckle swinging free made a good knuckleduster..... We used lead pipe on cords to make a good hang of our denim trousers over gaiter tops. Pop them into a double pair of socks and you had a good cosh or sap...... Steel shod boots were another very effective ad hoc weapon.
Funny, I had forgotten these tips but you have brought them flooding back. Our sergeant once told us that his hands were licensed as 'deadly weapons' in Stockport!
Meanwhile, in another part of the forest I have just heard a US senator describing Trump's health care proposals to replace the Affordable Health Care Act as a 'monster', designed with no consultation with doctors or patients, only the insurance companies. I fear this may be an accurate description.....
Later.... Sorry for my hard line approach but few things are more unattractive than public figures scrambling to get onto bandwagons. I see Andrew Stephenson is there this morning telling us that he "heard gunshots".

[Bruff]

Mr Juncker has given an interview and noted that the EU will not look to ‘punish’ the UK in the Art50 negotiations. Of course they won’t. The notion of anyone being ‘punished’ is a uniquely UK view in which for example the EU will punish us by landing us with an exit bill; or ‘punish’ us by not giving us the trade deal we want. And so on and so on and so on…..So one may think that Mr Juncker is getting his retaliation in early so to speak for when the inevitable blaming for the predicament the UK finds itself in is focussed on the EU.

Other targets will be (inevitably) the Germans, who once again this week were confronted at the football by a proud contingent of our dimmest singing 10 German Bombers and making Nazi salutes. What charming people the English are! The smaller EU countries are likely to get it in the neck too – if there’s one thing the English can’t stand it’s having to listen to the Slovaks as equals, let alone the Luxembourgers! They struggle to see the UK as a ‘Union of Equals’, so there’s really not much hope for the Estonians miles away. The BBC have been lined up this week to take their fair share of the blame via the letter signed by 75 MPs. I expect the civil service to cop it not least as those right at the heart of things are youngish, well-educated, cosmopolitan, multi-lingual folk living in London – overwhelmingly then Remain voters! And of course, all the rest of us Remainers will be right in the firing line. We will simply not be pulling our weight, talking the country down and whatnot. We simply do not believe enough, Brexiters being seemingly keen on the Tinkerbell Effect.

What will most certainly not happen is for the Brexiters to take responsibility for the actions, own the decision and accept the outcome.

So there will be no punishment. Own the decision and accept we are leaving a club. Accept that outside the club one cannot have all the benefits of the club unless you pay the going rate. As we have left the club, we have made it very clear we do not wish to pay the going rate. So we cannot expect all the benefits. How this can be seen as a punishment is beyond me. It is simply a fact of life. Still, this is all a waste of time. It’ll be called a punishment and folk’ll lap it up..

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

I hate to have to say it Richard but that lovely excoriating review of where we are at the moment is exactly in accord with my thinking and so yes, I think you are spot on. Makes you proud to be English doesn't it..... Our fragrant PM May can't even talk in a civil manner about the Scots let alone Estonia! At the moment she has got her Churchillian Persona out of the dressing up box and is making vapid comments about 'unity' when it's quite obvious she doesn't believe in it even for the UK let alone the EU. Even her homily on the 'terrorist attack' was coded to reinforce her aspirations for the Union (with England in charge of course). I could go on.......
Don't stop reminding us of the underlying truths Richard. If ever there was a time when we needed clear sighted comment it is now.

[Tizer]

More evidence (sorry, I suppose it should be `more fake news') that Trump's aides were up to mischief with the Russians...
`Trump ex-aide Paul Manafort 'offered to help Putin' ' LINK
"US President Donald Trump's one-time campaign chairman secretly worked for a Russian billionaire to assist President Vladimir Putin, the Associated Press (AP) news agency reports. Paul Manafort is said to have proposed a strategy to nullify anti-Russian opposition across former Soviet republics a decade ago. AP says documents and interviews support its claims about Mr Manafort. Mr Manafort has insisted that he never worked for Russian interests. He worked as Mr Trump's unpaid campaign chairman from March until August last year, including the period during which the flamboyant New York billionaire clinched the Republican nomination. He resigned after AP revealed that he had co-ordinated a secret Washington lobbying operation on behalf of Ukraine's ruling pro-Russian political party until 2014. Newly obtained business records link Mr Manafort more directly to Mr Putin's interests in the region, AP says."

[Stanley]

Trump has failed in his first major vote, the system which he has vilified has turned round and bitten him. This was not failure of Democrats to support him but enemies inside his own party, and there are plenty of them, controlling him. This is bad for Trump but worse for the rest of the world. A US President at odds with his own majority is bad news for all of us.

[Tizer]

Besides having failed in his promise to scrap Obamacare it now looks like he's heading for another defeat on his promise to go ahead with the Keystone XL pipeline to carry oil from Canada's tar sands to the US Gulf Coast. Obama quite rightly blocked it because the tar needs much more processing than does crude oil and it will cause high emissions and pollution. Trump has tried to rush it through but didn't give time for the obligatory environmental review and other factors have also conspired to prevent the pipeline going ahead. Landowners are refusing to allow the pipeline to cross through and people on the route are concerned about pollution. These factors, together with the low price of oil have driven away investors so their isn't enough funding. Trump had promised that it would be built with American steel but he should have checked first - the lead company has already ordered sufficient steel from Canada and Mexico! LINK

Another reason the investors are backing out of Keystone XL - Shell has seen the future and is selling off of its Canadian tar sand assets. Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips and Statoil have written down or sold their Canadian oil sand assets: LINK