POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

I've just heard a spokesman of the Brexit camp saying that if a hard Brexit damages UK farmers so be it. He said that cheaper food was more important than supporting farmers. One wonders how such ignorant thinking can exist. The man has evidently not given any thought to consequences. But then that seems to be typical of that school of thought. I get fed up of the message I hear this morning on the same theme, 'Let's leave and be brave again. Go out into the world and prosper'. Tell that the poor........

[Tizer]

And yet we hear ministers bending the figures to 'prove' that compared with the rest of the world, UK to EU trade is not that important. They do this by citing the percentage of firms (not the quantity) who don't do any trade with the EU, I heard our useless trade minister Liam Fox doing it only two days ago.

Another fact that Liam Fox and others don't mention is many (most?) of those smaller UK businesses that don't trade directly with the EU are nevertheless dependent on products or services provided from the EU at some stage in their manufacture or creation.

[Stanley]

Or are in premises originally funded by EU money.....
I watched the first of three programmes on Brexit on BBC2 at 21:00. Nothing surprised me and it was useful to be reminded of Gove's treacherous conduct.
Today could be instructive....... My sense is that everyone is standing back watching the Tories and wondering if it will be today that they hammer the final nails home in their coffin. Problem is they could nail a few in ours as well.... (For 'ours' read PBI)
Later reports are forecasting that May's Plan 'B' is in danger as the Brexiteers in the ERG have said they will oppose it. The right wing press is raging about Labour 'killing Brexit' with their amendment to delay Brexit. Meanwhile the EU repeat that there will be no change in the deal already agreed. This may be a negotiating position but even if it isn't all 27 members will have to agree to any changes and even then it might not be enough to convince Parliament. If May gets her way today No Deal looks odds on and even the Daily Mail is warning that anyone who says that it wouldn't lead to food shortages is barmy.
A significant day.

[plaques]

the Daily Mail is warning that anyone who says that it wouldn't lead to food shortages is barmy.

I can say with confidence that there won't be a shortage of food. But there will be a shortage of money to buy it. This will be a great opportunity to increase prices and raise their profit margins, stocks and shares will boom. People will just have to get used to eating less. Obesity problem solved at a stroke. The NHS can relax in that a lot of the projected problems will disappear. A no deal Brexit will be good for you. Well done Mrs May.

Later, Liam Fox. is suggesting that the EU will crumble in the face of a no deal Brexit. This must be true because the Express says so. ' International Trade Secretary Liam Fox suggested the European Union could be willing to reopen negotiations with Theresa May to protect its weakening economy from the impact of a hard Brexit.' By contrast a EU negotiator spokesman, in a questions and answers session, repeated said that he would refuse to answer all questions that started with the word 'IF'. He would not speculate on speculations and made it clear that they would wait until decisions were made by Parliament before answering. In any case all the available agreed possible options had been published in December for everyone to see. Compare this to our approach of muddying the waters right up to the last minute so that nobody, not even the Cabinet, seems to know what is going on.

[Tizer]

We all knew this sort of thing would happen, especially in the Trump Era. So much for `taking back control'...
`US firms seek changes to UK standards on beef and drugs' LINK

We're all so mesmerised by the Brexit issue that nobody is looking to the future and asking how Britain's constitution is going to work if Parliament sets a precedent of bowing to the will of the people regardless of the consequences. What is the `will of the people'? Only 35% of the electorate voted to leave the EU and referendums are meant to be advisory only, yet Parliament ducked out of its responsibility for making the decision. Those who voted to leave the EU said they wanted Parliament `to take back sovereignty from the EU'. But where will it lie in the future, in Parliament or in the will of a minority of the electorate? It's worth remembering that Hitler found referendums very useful and post-war Germany avoided them after that experience.

[chinatyke]

Only 35% of the electorate voted to leave the EU...

...and less than 35% voted to remain!

[PanBiker]

Pathetic turnout for such an important issue. Just re-enforces my view that we should have compulsory voting with a financial sanction for non compliance.

[Tizer]

Only 35% of the electorate voted to leave the EU...

...and less than 35% voted to remain!

Correct China, but what I wrote is: What is the `will of the people'? Only 35% of the electorate voted to leave the EU. The point I was trying to make is that it's ludicrous to claim that 35% is `the will of the people' and yet Parliament is trying to go ahead on that basis. It would apply equally if it had been the same result but for Remain. Also people aged 16 and 17 years old weren't eligible to vote, so their will is not considered either, even though they've got to live with the outcome. This is why, as I've mentioned before, the EU uses `qualified majority' voting for important issues; it's not perfect but it's better than what we did in the Referendum.

[Stanley]

I watched some of the BBC2 programme on the divisions in Parliament last night and then got fed up and like a modern teenager, went on Youtube to watch what really interested me.
My first reaction to the day is that if this is 'taking control' and 'an exercise in democracy' include me out! It is a shambles and more about May trying desperately to hold a fractured and failed government together than any serious concern for the welfare and future of the UK.
My understanding is that she has gained more time by saying she will go back to Brussels for more negotiations on what are in effect the EU's 'red lines'. She hasn't a hope in hell of getting them to start behaving like headless chickens which is what we are doing. My impression is that the rest of the world (including the EU) is watching what is happening and is completely bewildered as to why anyone could be so stupid and incompetent.
Corbyn states the obvious when he says this is a shambles produced by a failed government but hasn't the balls to get off the fence and force the obvious remedy.
He should give a clear and concise explanation of the flaws in the referendum, that the nation was given the wrong information and even lied to and this is a false base for any decision. Instead of talking about another referendum he should propose a vote of no confidence in the government, force an election and demand a guarantee that whoever takes power should immediately rescind the application to leave. Then we could have a proper national debate, not about whether we should stay in but what we would like to see changed in the EU.

Worth going onto BBC Sounds and looking for the ten minute 'Point of View' TX Sunday at) 8:50 in which Val McDermid argues that referendums have had a devastating effect on our political system. It's an admirably clear and well argued case for ignoring the results of the last one.

[PanBiker]

Instead of talking about another referendum he should propose a vote of no confidence in the government, force an election

He has already done this but lost the vote. He cant "force" an election it's down to the confidence of the whole house or the opposition throwing in the towel, that may come later.

Mightily impressed with John Bercow yesterday, some masterful put downs of those trying to shout down JC's response to May's diatribe of the same old stuff.

[Tizer]

Corbyn states the obvious when he says this is a shambles produced by a failed government but hasn't the balls to get off the fence and force the obvious remedy.

Stanley, I'm glad that you're recognising that Corbyn `hasn't the balls to get off the fence'. He's a Eurosceptic at heart and it's needed others in the Labour Party to make his decisions for him.

His reticence to back a second referendum could be the reason that reports have been appearing claiming falling membership of the Labour Party (which the Party, not surprisingly denies). LINK

[Tripps]

I persisted and watched most of the proceedings. I was impressed by the resoluteness of the Brexit Secretary (I can't recall his name - they change these secretaries so often) in his determination not to answer the question "what do you mean by alternative arrangements"?
The question was starkly asked on several occasions by his honourable friends from all sides of the house, - and in reply they got lots of words but no answer whatever, to the question.

So now Mrs May can go back to Brussels armed with, and authorised by, a non binding amendment, and get the EU to change their minds, about something they have said many times that they won't. change their mind. ( It's OK they're just bluffing.)

'No deal' it seems is now not an option, so Mr Corbyn can now join in the panto.

I just heard on the radio that the CBI will now intensify its preparations for 'no deal'.

[PanBiker]

I have been thinking about yesterdays debacle and have come to the conclusion that the hard line brexit contingency in the Tory party may have organised a win win situation for themselves. In the main, all the amendments for a better way forward were voted down, (just in some cases) by the Tories themselves with a little help from one or two on the opposition benches. They knew full well that voting through telling May to go back and argue the backstop was a non starter so bound to fail, she will not admit to this of course. When she is sent back home, two things are the most likely, we can crash out without a deal which would suit a lot of them to the ground. Or May can chuck in the towel and go for a general election which she is likely to lose. The earliest date for this by my reckoning would be around the 16th March, (allowing for the statutory 6 weeks notice) so in actuality probably the following Thursday the 21st March. If she doesn't lose, the clock has run out and we crash out without a deal. If she does lose regardless of the outcome it will all be Labours fault.

[Tizer]

Let's not forget that the `hard line brexit contingency in the Tory party' have among their number the people that Cameron wanted to appease when he chose to have a referendum on EU membership. They've been winning ever since and the chickens are coming home to roost. (The Observer policy editor has just tweeted that accounts show that Cameron has been earning £41,000 a month since he left politics.)

Now the EU has rejected calls to re-open the Brexit deal LINK and the leader of UKIP has called for a no deal exit, while Farage has popped up to tell us that it's all the EU 's fault.

[Tripps]

They're a duplicitous bunch, and hard to fathom. The more Mrs May says we are leaving the EU on March 29th, the less I believe her. I think the strategy is to delay the process as much as possible, until a last minute panic when any deal will do.

Reminds me of this - probably fake news but fits the bill.

When Metternich heard the news that Talleyrand, the legendarily devious French diplomat and statesman, had died he is said to have asked “I wonder what he meant by that?”

[Stanley]

David, the Brexit Secretary was on Today yesterday and did the same thing. He is a motor-mouth and if you press the right button spews out an endless stream of pure crap but doesn't answer the question.
Tiz , I haven't suddenly realised that Labour is wrong and admitted it. I have been saying that for months.
I think Margaret Beckett is right. She said yesterday that what most people have missed is that everything May has done in the negotiations and particularly in these later stages is string out the debate so it will time out and we have a hard Brexit which appeases the ERG and stops the Party splitting. I agree with her. Nothing to do with the good of the country, pure Party politics.
When she comes back after the next rejection Labour should put down another vote of No Confidence' and keep on doing so until the system cracks.
I agree about Bercow and have said so through all these latter stages. His agenda is to protect the right of individual members and let them do their job of opposing if they so desire. That's actually the prime duty of the Speaker.

[Stanley]

I avoided all news yesterday including late night as I went to bed early. A Brexit free day! I had much more interesting fish to fry.

[plaques]

Mrs May will spend up to Stanley's birthday, 14 Feb:, getting nowhere. Another two weeks gone.
A few thoughts on the 'second referendum', some of which I've said before. A second referendum or a 'peoples vote' just to add a little confusion has been rejected by Mrs May every time its raised in the commons so in spite of all the huffing and puffing what may look like common sense to those who are following this 'will they blink won't they blink nonsense' its not going to happen. The Liberals have been pressing for a people vote but after they committed suicide with the students fees they disappeared down the tube its not in Labour's interest to throw them a life line by saying "what a good idea", remember this is politics not common sense. Even IF, If, If, there was to have one a 'leave' will be no change, and the Tories are still in power. If it went stay. Its only advisory which Mrs May will ignore and the Tories are still in power. Suggestions have been made round coalitions but remember history has shown that the minority party has always suffered after the event. Labour would be the junior partner and consequently the fall guy when things go wrong.
Its the Tories fault so let them take the blame.

[Tizer]

I'm coming to the point where I'll follow Bruff's plan: to make a brew, sit back and watch the Grand Brexit Plan follow its course like some mad TV soap opera. Have a good laugh at the antics of the politicians who got us into this and enjoy seeing how they deal with the consequences.

[Stanley]

"Its the Tories fault so let them take the blame." I think that's the key phrase when considering Labour's inaction. I have an idea that they have made a calculation and decided that in the long run it's best to let the Tories destroy themselves and then step in to clear up the mess afterwards. They could be right.....
Tiz, I think that subconsciously I am adopting the same policy, rape is inevitable so lie back and think of England!
I heard a commentator say yesterday that nobody saw the Irish problem coming and thought about Richard over two years ago. How come a bunch of amateurs like us saw the problem and they didn't?
I did note the significance of my birth date.......

[Tizer]

`INF nuclear treaty: Russia follows US in suspending pact' LINK
`Russia has suspended its involvement in the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) following a similar decision by the US. President Vladimir Putin said Russia would start developing new missiles.'

[Stanley]

Like a re-run of a bad movie..... Remember Star Wars?
A clip of Jeremy Hardy yesterday was him saying the RAF had refused to fly T May to Brussels in a Spitfire.......

[Tizer]

They probably refused because Red Baron Barnier would have shot her down (sorry about the mixed eras!).

Another useful article from BBC's Reality Check team: `Brexit backstop: Can technology solve the Irish border problem?' LINK

[Stanley]

Jacob Rees Mogg is on R4 saying that Brexit is not a factor in Nissn's decision not to expand into the new X Trail Contract and that the BBC are peddling fake news..... This despite the fact that Nissan say it is.... He refuses to accept any responsibility as a Brexiteer. I think we will make our own minds up.

[Stanley]

Watching and waiting......
Later.... We are told there is going to be another delaying tactic. In an effort to hold the Tories together T May has called 4 days of 'talks' with party members of all persuasions to work out an alternative proposal that can be presented to the EU. Deep Joy!