POLITICS CORNER

[Tripps]

This is worth watching (I think so anyway). Doreen Tipton's Christmas message

[Marilyn]

I enjoyed that...

[Stanley]

I heard that as well Tiz. Can you blame them?
I've never come across Doris before but she is spot on. Welcome to the brave new world of Brexit.....
Later..... The headlines in the papers this morning flag up that reality is beginning to set in.The main headlines are about the record increase in rail ticket prices and the ever more pressing matter of housing. However, a relatively insignificant news item may end up being the most important.
See THIS for a good representative article about the growth of domestic debt. When we look at levels of debt in the lower 85% of the population the basic issue is that inflation is outpacing wage growth. Some brave souls forecast that this could improve in 2018 but none of them can forecast the exchange rate (the value of the Pound) or the growing effects of Brexit. The betting is that in real terms, domestic finances are going to worsen. Worst case is that eventually this is going to dawn on the electorate and there could be an increase in levels of dissatisfaction. The question is, how severe can this be? Nobody can forecast this and I fear we are heading into 'interesting times'.
It may be that this becomes the story of 2018. If and when it does, remember that all this is self-inflicted!

[Marilyn]

Put her name into YouTube
She does a good Christmas Message and another one about being bone idle.

[Tizer]

I enjoyed that Doreen video, Tripps, thank you. She briefly mentioned Trump but I'd like to hear her say more on that topic!

I'd like to be optimistic about 2018 but like Stanley I see 'interesting times' ahead. In Britain and America the politicians have lost the plot completely and I can't see a future for either of the main political parties in their present form. They've both committed us to Brexit and they'll both get the blame when it happens and people find out they've been sold a dud. This time it'll be the Brits who are demanding that the swamp is drained and then there'll be a populist British Trump out there promising to Make Britain Great Again, stop Johnny Foreigner coming here and build a wall...Build a Wall...BUILD A WALL...

[Tripps]

I enjoyed that Doreen video,

Since posting it I've realised there are quite a few more on Youtube. If you rely on main stream media especially the BBC, you would totally unaware of her existence. I wonder why that is - and why have we been 'force fed' Morecambe and Wise and The Two Ronnies, Dad's Army etc, this Christmas when this lady is available.

Actually - I think I know why.

[Stanley]

My discovery of Youtube when my eyes were bad and I couldn't read was a revelation! True there is a lot of crap on there but lots of good stuff as well. For instance, search for Dennis Skinner.......
It's quiet out there Jim, too quiet! I don't like it.
The same can't be said about the rest of the world. See THIS for Trump's latest rantings on Twitter. He is threatening to withdraw foreign aid from uncooperative regimes but more important has sent a message to N Korea that his nuclear button is bigger and more powerful then theirs and what's more, it works. This has shocked even the most hardened US political commentators. I leave you to draw your own conclusions.

[plaques]

When will Trump realize that threatening people only gets their backs up and makes them resist more strongly. However much the people of North Korea suffer under Kim Jong Un Trump has only confirmed that America is 'The Enemy' and can be seen as a personal threat to them which must be resisted at all costs. Everybody needs an enemy to control their own population, thank you Donald. This is what happened when Hitler bombed civilian targets in the UK and we in turn bombed civilians in Germany. Meanwhile back at the ranch, our minds are concentrating on another 'Big Brother'. Not the Orwellian type but more of an Aldous Huxley brand of hedonistic pleasure of 'Celebrity Big Brother', how will Ann Widdicombe survive? Then there's Iphone slowing down their speed. How dare they deprive me of another two tenths of a second waiting for my next bit of trivia to load up? Brexit, what's that to do with me?

[PanBiker]

Trump seems to think that if you have enough money and the biggest stick you will always prevail. Strange from a country that after pouring billions of dollars and the same amont into dropped and fired ordnance on to a third world country they still got heir arses kicked in Vietnam. All the money and high tech weaponry could not defeat the will of the opposition with basic arms, no air superiority but they had picks and shovels. Trump managed to dodge getting involved in that one on dodgy medical grounds whilst "serving" at an Ivy League military academy. If he had been down with the "grunts" he may have learnt something.

[Stanley]

Some politicians automatically trigger my rage response. Hunt is one of them. I watched him doing his 'apology' for the NHS failure with a perfectly straight face and wondered why a performance like this isn't illegal. True, he wasn't lying but he was being economical with the truth and avoiding the question of underfunding and bad political management. In political terms he was doing a wonderful job, appearing to show contrition and care but avoiding the issue.
I don't know about other people but my reaction to a performance like this is to analyse the performance for clues to what is actually going on and it's complicated. Looking at Hunt himself I suspect that his main purpose in life is the promotion of his career as a politician. In order to achieve this he has to conform to the Party Line and this often conflicts with what he knows has to be done to address the shortcomings of the service he is accountable for. This means steering a very careful course along a knife edge and that was what he was doing yesterday. 'A safe pair of hands' is a very valuable commodity these days! Looking at the overall policies, the problem is that Tory policies are not compatible with what most of us would regard as promoting the overall advancement of the lower 80% of the electorate. Couple this with appallingly bad economic management of the major spending streams and you get the knee-jerk collapse into the economic desert of austerity aimed at this 80%. Ideologically a free NHS without profit being made is anathema to pure Tory DNA so why waste money on an altruistic idea that has had its day. As far as the Right are concerned, this is low hanging fruit so what automatically follows is under-resourcing to create gateways for 'outside provision' in the name of greater efficiency.
I have to stop, I could bore for England on this subject. The bottom line is that the 80% are not the prime focus. The Tories are following the money and no amount of spin and crocodile tears will alter this. The 'cure' will have to be far more radical. And yes, you're right, I hate the present course of governance in all its manifestations!

[plaques]

In most instances Governments take at least five years to recover from the previous government's mess. On some programmes Blair and Brown left quite a mess behind them although the banking crisis in 2008 had a much longer fuse and had been lit long before they came into power. The Tories have now been in power since 2010 long enough to dissociate themselves from Blair's /Bush invasion policies but couldn't quite bring themselves to do it. As we have seen they have followed a policy of austerity which we now all know benefits the rich and penalizes the poor. Jeremy Hunt has now been in his position six years during which he has followed the party line of minimal investment in the NHS. I think he has now reached his sell by date and most people have sussed out that under his direction things will only get worse. So is it time for new blood and another smokescreen? Watch out for a cabinet reshuffle which puts new blood but unfortunately with the same Tory DNA in his position.

[Tizer]

John Humphrys gave Tony Blair a hard time this morning over his views on Brexit, then he gave Lord Lawson an easy time over his views on the same topic. I get the impression JH might just be a Brexiteer underneath that assumed journalistic shell of independence.

[PanBiker]

This could have gone it What Attracted but is valid here as it is politically or policy related at least. I heard on the radio about the two Vietnamese women who have been convicted under the Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Laws. They were forcing young Vietnamese girls brought into the country illegally to work in nail bars, no pay and threats to family members at home if they didn't comply. Kidnap and slavery both despicable crimes.

One was sentenced to 5 years with the probability of serving 3, the other 4 years and the probability of serving 2 years? What is the point of sentencing if the recipient does not serve the full term?

In this instance and for other foreign criminals why don't they simply seize any monies they have made and just deport them? Would save lot of bother and tax payers money. Two years in prison will not reform them into upstanding members of the community so why should the tax payers have to pay to recycle them back into criminality. Deliver them back to their own country in handcuffs with a note and let them explain why.

[Stanley]

I noted May stepping in to do her bit to defuse what is obviously a big political problem. She used the classic spin doctor's tactic of conflation to structure her 'response'. She conflates progress in medical science which has led to better treatments with the general problem of increased demand and chronic underfunding of that work which enables her to say that 'The NHS is better'. Apart from increased demand she leaves out the fact that the root of much of the ambulance waiting and A&E problems is the fact that bodies can't be moved onto the wards to free space in triage because of bed-blocking by patients who wouldn't need to be in hospital if there was adequate provision in the community for efficient social care. This in turn is a direct consequence of starving the whole system of funding and that includes the Local Councils. Big money, high profile projects are more politically attractive. In other words, priorities are wrong and that is a direct result of political DNA and not the reality of everyday life running policies.
And you are right again, anyone who tries to sort out the imbalance is on a hiding to nothing. We are storing up at least 30 years of consequences here.....Bit like badly maintained roads but that's another problem. Apply the same logic to any other public service and you get the same result.
[Then add Brexit......]

[Tizer]

The NHS troubles become crystal clear when you get an example close up. Our neighbour from across the road, a retried man, has just told us that his wife has suffered a massive stroke and is unlikely to survive. They stopped briefly in a car park and he came back to the car to find her slumped in her seat. An ambulance was summoned but didn't arrive until 40 minutes later, even though the main hospital is only about 10 minutes away at the most. All the talk about delays seems like just political squabbles until you face someone who has waited 40 minutes in a car park for their loved one to receive help.

[PanBiker]

Could he not drive her straight to the A&E at the hospital?

I have been faced with not having any ambulances available when I was advised I needed one, I was fortunate that I had the facility to get me there under our own steam.

[Stanley]

But that's not the point is it Ian. Not everyone thinks clearly in an emergency like that and many haven't got transport. That's why we have ambulances and highly qualified paramedics. Noticeable that the worst served areas were in the North mainly and the best in London and the SW. We are being ill-served by our government largely due to incompetence or political inertia leading to bad policy decisions.

[PanBiker]

I agree of course Stanley, I was gob smacked when the 111 operator had to fess up that there wasn't a single ambulance available in the district when they recommended one for me. My comment was regarding the circumstance that Tiz related.

[Tizer]

If you're in that man's situation Ian and in the middle of a town you expect that a paramedic would get to you faster and safer than you could drive the car to hospital. Even if you did drive there you could be held up by traffic and/or blocked from reaching the A&E by cars and ambulances around the entrance. And then it can be difficult getting someone to help you even at A&E. She's a large lady and it would need a proper trolley and nurses to get her from the car into the hospital. Having often spent time waiting at the reception of that hospital, facing A&E, I can tell you that it's very busy. There is even a helipad opposite the entrance and if a helicopter arrives (and they're frequent, they carry blood and organs as well as patients) then the whole area is shut down to traffic and pedestrians during landing and take-off. On top of that is the fact that her husband had rung for an ambulance and assumed that it was on its way. What you do is all down to circumstances.

[PanBiker]

What you do is all down to circumstances.

Indeed Tiz, from our point of view we knew that there would be a straight run into Airedale A&E and I had been told that there was no other option.

Whatever the the circumstance it is abhorrent that our NHS has been underfunded to arrive in this situation. We all assume that the system will work for us if push comes to shove but that is often not the case nowadays. No coincidence that we have DIY defibrillators around the town, some on buildings some in pubs and one locally in Salterforth in the redundant red telephone box. Always better if you can get the professional at your side but that can no longer be guaranteed and the golden hour for many now does not exist.

[plaques]

Its difficult for an outsider to comprehend the pressures that the ambulance service is up against. I think we can all agree that those within the service, the paramedics and doctors and nurses at the sharp end and doing a fantastic job. People can argue that privatizing the service is a bad move but you get what you pay for. Managers can pour over statistics and count frequencies until the cows come home but at the end of the day still finish up with a 'best guess' at what level of service to supply. We all know that every winter there are more flu cases, more falls and possibly more heart attacks. Setting a system to cope only with 'average' volumes or smoothed out demand may be the most economical but doesn't take into account all the 'black swan' events that may occur. Recent headlines indicate that the system is being run on a shoestring. Link.. I think the government should accept that there must be some spare capacity built into the system and that we shall have to pay extra for it. Unfortunately, they have their eyes on the American Health care model where there are lucrative profits to be made out of situations where the vulnerable customer is in no position to say NO. This little YouTube clip outlines the basic problem Link.. It may not be 100% correct but worth bearing in mind.

[Stanley]

The root is largely the council cuts that have left care in the community underfunded.
"Unfortunately, they have their eyes on the American Health care model where there are lucrative profits to be made out of situations where the vulnerable customer is in no position to say NO." is a telling quote....
This morning a Cabinet reshuffle is being forecast by Westminster watchers. Downing Street says there is no truth in this. One particular problem is that May has been reported as wanting her friend Jeremy Hunt at her side in Damian Green's job but the present crisis in the NHS is making this look like a bad move. If Hunt, as reported, has his eye on the Leadership this will be annoying him as well..... Even if he was moved, he would carry the opprobrium of leaving the NHS in the lurch.
In the US I simply watch the latest developments in horror. Trump's assertion that he is a 'stable genius' is surreal..... How long can this farce continue? Mind you, we could ask the same question about our leadership, the evidence is that they are incompetent and not fit to run a toffee shop!

[Stanley]

Lots of focus today on the deckchairs being shuffled about in the cabinet. It's no more than this, May daren't attack Boris or Spreadsheet Phil for obvious reasons. However something else is on my mind this morning....
I finished Norman's book on Vanished Kingdoms yesterday. I have been learning all the way thorough but he finished by giving a brilliant explanation of the Irish Question that tidied up my thinking on the subject and then addressed the dissolution of the CCCP. He makes distinctions between different causes of failure. In the case of the CCCP he says it was a vacuum at the centre caused by incompetence, sclerotic systems and the failure of the leadership to realise the consequences of their actions. His last chapter analyses the differences and it became clear to me why he believes that the United Kingdom is in the throes of an inevitable break up. He wrote this before 2011 and it struck me that everything he was saying was becoming reality. I think it's fair to regard our current leadership strategies as being a governmental vacuum, they are fire-fighting all the time. suffering from the consequences of failed and mistaken policies and in addition have to contend with Cameron's Catastrophe. This being the case they are steering a course which logically leads to a shrinkage, if not a dissolution of the United Kingdom. It all makes sense!
Later.... Walking is good for thinking. Looking a bit deeper into the above, we all know that politicians are not good at long term, if they were they wouldn't have instituted some of the crass policies they have concentrated on. Make your own list up. A historian like Norman Davies spends a lifetime looking at evidence and assessing it and we can place more trust in his judgement than most people. When someone like him makes a definite statement that the dissolution of the UK is inevitable in the long run and details the precursors and then on top of this we see them developing, we should all take heed.
Looking at the re-shuffle. I have little interest in it because it is, as far as I can see, a cosmetic exercise. What did send a chill down my back was mention of Grayling as a replacement for Damian Green. This man seems to me to be a walking disaster area. I can't think of anything he has been involved in that hasn't suffered.

[Stanley]

So, they have made Grayling Party Chairman? They must have a secret death wish......
But hold on a minute! Then we got THIS. It was all a glorious cock-up. It might become clear today..... (Oh, and the Conservative Party website crashed as well)
See THIS optimistic report from the Financial Times which is at odds with figures put out this morning by the British Retail Consortium which gives a far more pessimistic report. The overall picture seems to be that while more debt was entered into on credit cards, the actual volume of trading could be down. The apparent increase in food retailing could be largely due to inflation driving prices up. It may be that the Economic Miracle is finally petering out and this is far more important than the deckchair shuffling in Downing Street. This is real life and as I said yesterday, when it comes down to practical matters there seems to be a vacuum at the centre of government. The important matters all seem to be in slow decline with no signs of them being addressed.
Later, the bottom line on the shuffle seems to be that it demonstrates Theresa May's lack of power and ability to control her ministers. Not only are there Big Beasts who she daren't move, but there are smaller fish who seem to have simply refused her orders. Time was when insubordination like this would be an automatic sacking matter.....

[Tizer]

When I looked at the BBC web site's `live' news on the shuffle late yesterday the only significant item seemed to a be a photo of Larry the Cat entering No.10!