OneGuyFromBarlick

All this guff we are getting fed is from incompetent and delusional persons who are blinkered by the fact that they are still sticking to the original agenda because there is no alternative. At the moment the only 'safe' thing for them to do to protect their own positions is to hail Mother Theresa as the Second Coming and back her to the hilt. In Brussels there must be a mixture of unbelief and quiet confidence because the way the cards are stacked now it is they who have us over a barrel.
Was it P who drew the comparison with Munich? Exactly right I think. Are they really going to go home for Xmas secure in the knowledge all is going well? If they are, this is a good demonstration of delusion.
Don't despair but allow yourselves to get very close to it.....

On Brexit. I like the analogy of the man that fell from a ten story building. Passing the fifth floor someone shout "how do you feel?" He answered "fine at the moment". One thing that puzzles me is that if we have a transitionary period then eventually we should be seeing changes gradually taking place from one phase to the other. So far all the talk is of simply kicking the 'cliff' edge tin two years down the road. Like the falling man the end point doesn't look too good.

I suppose Trump will say these women are liars and accuse them of treason...
`Trump sex harassment accusers demand congressional inquiry' LINK

Like any other person who has been wronged they deserve justice. However, nothing Trump does surprises me now.....
Unfortunately politician's 'promises' seem to mean nothing these days. Remember Cameron and 'whatever it takes' during the floods? The Tories are in trouble again, this time over Grenfell. Funding was promised for removing flammable cladding and upgrading sprinkler protection in flats. It never happened, the councils are being left hanging out to dry. Similarly, quick re-homing of those affected was promised but it hasn't happened and the response of the council to requests for attention and help have been so bad that trust has broken down to the extent that the tenants have asked the Tory Leaders of the council to keep away from the service in St Paul's today. It doesn't get much worse than this but will it have any effect? Don't hold your breath.
St Theresa was lauded to high heaven by relieved members of her party , leavers and remainers alike. But what's THIS?. Nigel Lawson, for it is he, lays into her pointing out the inconsistencies in the 'agreement' and accusing her of caving in to the EU.
I have a feeling that Corbyn is near the truth when he describes the Tory approach as shambolic. TM describes the lovely agreement she is heading for. I wonder if the EU see it in as positive a light.

According to the FT the EU is ganging up on Trump over his tax cut plans. Fancy that, and just when we've decided to leave the EU too.

"The finance ministers from Europe’s five largest economies have warned the Trump administration that Republican tax cut plans would flout international agreements and undermine trade, threatening to turn a Washington policy battle into a transatlantic row. In a letter to the White House and US Treasury department, the ministers — including Philip Hammond of the UK, Peter Altmaier of Germany and Bruno Le Maire of France — raised the possibility of retaliating if the legislation becomes law. The letter highlights concerns in Europe that the Trump administration will use tax reform as a route to promote “America first” trade discrimination, escalating tensions that have already risen in other policy areas like the environment and Middle East peace."

Quite right too Tiz. But will he take any notice?
Mind you he has another little local problem. Read THIS for a Guardian report on the Alabama election. Doug Jones, the Democrat has overturned years of Republican domination in the state. There is a God!
This despite artificial barriers like demanding voter ID to deter black voters. First thing that Doug should do is remove these artificial barriers. Long overdue!

IDS on the radio last night castigating some Tories for obstructing Mrs May: `There comes a time when a government must govern". If that's what he believes he should have encouraged the government to decide whether or not we left the EU instead of abdicating responsibility and asking the population to make the decision for them.

Yes, well 'the government' found out last night that if Parliament gets off its butt and asserts itself it is not the government who governs but Parliament. See THIS for a BBC report on what happened.
The bottom line is that what the vote says is that it doesn't trust Mrs May's weasel words used in the 'assurance' she gave. A hopeful sign, we need to see more of this.

My personal view is that there is a general distrust in everything that David Davis says. On almost every pronouncement on the EU negotiations he has backtracked from concrete proposals to 'aspirations' and 'intent' plus the downright lies on the impact assessments. Unfortunately for Mrs May the tail is wagging the dog and everything he does is directly reflected on her. I doubt if we will ever reach the point of having a vote of no confidence in her so we are stuck with this shambles for at least another two years.

Plaques is right about David Davis and he's echoed by Hugo Rifkind in his weekly skit on people in the news. He always has the DD character stating something several times and then finally saying the opposite.

Prof Robert Schiller reckons we're in for another stock market crash...
`A Stock Market Panic Like 1987 Could Happen Again' LINK

Even the EU ministers have commented on it P. Contrast Barnier's announcements. They are short, pointed and seem to be accurate every time. We could do with some intellectual clarity and Tiz is right, barring am earthquake the Tory Party is going to protect May. The EU ministers must like her style, perhaps it's good for them. They applauded her when she went in for dinner last night.
I sometimes get the feeling it's a complicated 18th century dance with a foregone conclusion....

In a BBC report on the last Question Time programme of 2017 I note it says that a journalist called "Isabel Oakshott claims that powerful `vested interests' will "stop at nothing" to keep the UK in the EU". I wonder what she means by `vested interests'? I would say that keeping the UK in the EU is in the vested interests of the UK population but I don't think that's what she means!

I would have thought that any 'vested interests' would be more inclined to supporting Leave and more freedom to make money by manipulating the financial system.
It struck me yesterday that, more and more, I am getting the same feeling of unreality you sometimes experience on All Fools Day when spoof news items abound. I hear the statements made by the current protagonists and get the same feeling of unreality.....
See THIS for an example. Austria has settled on a far-right government..... Shades of the 1930s. Then look at America and Trump, I rest my case.....

Will there be a Brexit truce for Christmas with both sides playing a football match on Christmas Day?

They haven't got time for a break!

They haven't got time to do a proper job either!

Looking at the two op-ed pieces from TM over the weekend and listening to the reports of the Tory 'Brexit War Cabinet' one gets the impression that they are now firmly on track.
I'm sorry but I don't see it that way. The 'solution' arrived at in Brussels is a fudge and everyone knows it. Barnier reinforces the message that the UK is not going to get a bells and whistles exit. Bojo is preparing his Brexit manifesto. Add to all this that the next phase is far more difficult than the first and if I was May I would be calming people down and warning of the difficulties.
But what the hell do I know about it.....

People keep on talking about us setting up a trade agreement with the EU like that recently made between Canada and the EU. They don't seem to understand that the Canada agreement doesn't cover the financial services, aviation and digital sectors which together account for most of our trade nowadays.

Quite. And that took 15 years......

And was nearly scuppered by the Walloons in Belgium. LINK We'll soon be less significant than the Walloons because we won't have the right to veto a decision.

I agree Tiz.... I listened to TM's report that the Cabinet are now in full agreement about the negotiating position. What she really meant is that they are agreed on what they want and expect. Problem is that keeping trading privileges with the EU and having the freedom to negotiate globally are, as far as the EU is concerned, totally incompatible. They have made this clear time and time again but our Lala land politicians haven't recognised this.
Long discussions and speculation in the media as to how 'safe' TM is. She has the worst possible position, she is only being kept in post because the there is nobody daft enough to take on mission impossible and it's almost certain that there would have to be a General Election to do it and they are scared stiff of Corbyn..... She will be there for at least two years and it will break her. Not worth the candle.
By the way, this is why the Opposition aren't going for her throat. They want to sit back while the Tories dig themselves deeper and deeper into the shit. Only when things have reached rock bottom will they step in, take power and do a reverse ferret that could be as drastic as cancelling the whole exercise and staying in the EU because that is the only sensible course. By that time the UK will have lost all credibility and be in deep economic and social trouble. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories split into two factions..... I have never seen such a bloody mess!

I hope you all listened to the Radio 4 programme on Walter Bagehot last night, `What would Bagehot say?' I missed the first half but what I heard was excellent and I hope to listen to it all soon. It will be broadcast again at 17.00 on Christmas Eve. The BBC web site said: "In 1867 Walter Bagehot published his seminal work on The English Constitution, describing the role of Cabinet, Parliament and Monarchy in delivering 'strong and stable' government. But 150 years on, would Bagehot still recognise our current political system and would he approve? The writer of The Economist's Bagehot column, Adrian Wooldridge, examines the British constitution through the eyes of a Victorian master." Not only history but lots on the present day situation, especially Brexit and Trump. LINK

Incidentally, Bagehot was born in Langport near where we used to live and his father was boss of the local bank, Stuckey's. He and his family are buried there in All Saints' churchyard next to the Stuckey family.

I doubt if the Tories will split into two factions there is too much career and pensions at stake. As always in politics the last thing you ever do is admit is that the opposing party has the best policies. To do so your support will gradually melt away and give the opposition an advantage. The best that Mrs May can do is to try to claim Labours ideas as her own. The transition period on the Brexit, once an anathema, has some how become a long standing fact. The so called 'red' lines are gradually fading away and compromises are being sought, much to the chagrin of Boris and Co. Don't expect any 'U' turns, just mild swerves and side steps. The one thing that you can depend on is that Joe Public will be kept in a state of dark confusion for as long as possible.

I heard the trail for the Bagehot programme and will seek it out Tiz.
P, of course you are probably right but we are all allowed to dream..... Did either of you hear IDS making his sickening and completely unbelievable defence of Damien Green yesterday? he was allowed to get away with it..... Of course IDS has this great disadvantage, every time I hear his voice I hear the Quiet Man speech in my head. By the way, in case you missed it, DG has been 'asked to resign', sacked to you and me for lying about his knowledge about porn on his computer.
On the 'transition period' I heard Barnier chopping 3 months off it. Add this to the other signals he is giving about no sweetheart deals and you'd think they would be getting the picture.
Christine Lagarde and the IMF give us another jolt of common sense when she lowers projected growth to 1.6%, a risible level which doesn't even give us the benefit of holding our own. She also warns yet again of the adverse effects that Brexit will have on the economy. Of course she is accused of being a doom monger. We shall see.
Trump has got his tax cuts passed. No surprise there as it is a gift to the rich. He evidently still believes in the 'trickle down' effect and has fallen yet again for the old canard that a rising tide lifts all boats. It doesn't, it drowns the short people..... They should all read Piketty and Stiglitz!!