CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

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Tripps
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tripps » 07 Sep 2017, 13:09

I hope our site (joint) founder is not in the area. He was last time we heard of him, but that was a long time ago. This one is a bit more than just 'batten down the hatches'. Doc.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Big Kev » 07 Sep 2017, 16:50

Tripps wrote:
07 Sep 2017, 13:09
I hope our site (joint) founder is not in the area. He was last time we heard of him, but that was a long time ago. This one is a bit more than just 'batten down the hatches'. Doc.
He's about 300 miles south, in Grenada.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by PanBiker » 07 Sep 2017, 18:08

I checked on him today as well Kev, looks like he's missed Irma but he is keeping an eye on Jose' that's following up.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 09 Sep 2017, 04:31

Good. I hadn't thought about him.......
Irma has gained strength again and is over Cuba now but heading for Florida in the next 24 hours.....
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 19 Sep 2017, 06:58

Some good news about climate change today from an international group of scientists. With more data available and improvements in climate modelling they show that we can be more optimistic about tacking climate change if nations keep to the pledges made on curtailing emissions. Their paper in Nature Geoscience concludes: "If CO2 emissions are continuously adjusted over time to limit 2100 warming to 1.5 °C, with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation, net future cumulative CO2 emissions are unlikely to prove less than 250 GtC and unlikely greater than 540 GtC. Hence, limiting warming to 1.5 °C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation. Strengthening near-term emissions reductions would hedge against a high climate response or subsequent reduction rates proving economically, technically or politically unfeasible." Nature Geoscience

The Guardian gives a more user-friendly explanation:
`Ambitious 1.5C Paris climate target is still possible, new analysis shows'
`Goal to limit warming to 1.5C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change was seen as unreachable, but updated research suggests it could be met if strong action is taken.'
The highly ambitious aim of limiting global warming to less than 1.5C remains in reach, a new scientific analysis shows. The 1.5C target was set as an aspiration by the global Paris climate change deal in 2015 to limit the damage wreaked by extreme weather and sea level rise. It was widely seen as impossible because analysis at the time indicated it required carbon emissions to fall to zero within seven years, a speed deemed “incompatible with democracy” by one climate economist. However, an updated analysis using the latest data shows the global carbon emissions budget that meets the 1.5C goal is significantly bigger than thought, equivalent to 20 years of current annual emissions. The scale of the challenge remains huge but it means that, if the world’s nations ratchet up their emissions cuts in future as intended under the Paris deal, the expected “severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts” on people and the natural world could be avoided." Guardian

The Daily Telegraph leads with the headline: `Climate change not as threatening to planet as previously thought, new research suggests' but then claims, wrongly: "Climate change poses less of an immediate threat to the planet than previously thought because scientists got their modelling wrong, a new study has found." The scientists didn't get their modelling wrong. It's a process of continuous improvement. Climate modelling is never right or wrong, it simply gives the best prediction with the currently available tools and data. But that doesn't suit the Telegraph's reader's of course. Telegraph

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 20 Sep 2017, 03:58

Trust the Telegraph to use the honest statement as 'proof' that the climate change theory is wrong. The deniers will leap on this as well. A brave move, making the statement but in the end it's the correct thing to do. That's how science works!
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 20 Sep 2017, 09:06

Now the Mail has got hold of it too. But then the mail is already in trouble with IPSO for wrongly reporting on climate change. LINK

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Pluggy » 20 Sep 2017, 18:24

Some of us gave up on the Mail as a viable source long ago.....
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by PanBiker » 20 Sep 2017, 18:27

I gave up on every newspaper about 30 years ago. Yesterdays news and someone else's opinion. I can get more or less instant news and make my own mind up on any issues.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 21 Sep 2017, 03:08

I agree with Ian. I used to get the Manchester Guardian every day and the Observer on Sundays..... Now I only get the BET and Private Eye once a fortnight. I manage to keep up to date even so.....
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 22 Sep 2017, 09:05

Here's a balanced view on the effect of climate change on the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, from the BBC's environment correspondent. Basically, it's what we've been saying all along - the warming climate doesn't necessarily cause the extreme events but it makes them even worse. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture so it's obvious that you'd expect heavier rainfall. Melting glaciers leads to higher sea levels and that makes storm surges on the coast greater; the melting also reduces glaciers' buffering effect on river flow and leads to bigger swings between floods and draughts.

`Hurricanes: A perfect storm of chance and climate change?' LINK

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 23 Sep 2017, 03:07

Basically all weather systems are chaotic and this makes them inherently unstable, butterflies flapping wings etc. That's why occasionally even in Barlick we get exceptional events. The more enhanced the basic factors like sea level and temperature are, the more unpredictable and violent the events are.
I note that Uncle Bob and Paulette got caught in the outriders of Jose on their crossing to NY. Even Cunard admitted the seas were 'very rough'.
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