CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tardis » 29 Mar 2012, 09:31

Tizer wrote:
Tardis wrote:It would make sense, because CO2 rates have not risen as fast as was expected.
Which is what you would expect, as a result of the recession depressing industrial activity and thus reducing the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere.
I had understood that the "recession" was only in Europe

China, Sub continent, South America and parts of America have positive growth, and the material damage is being done in the lower technology countries.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 29 Mar 2012, 19:13

Output of CO2 by countries like China is growing fast but the developed world has still dominated industrial production and release of CO2 until now. The increase among some developing countries was still outweighed by the fall in the developed countries, although this is about to change as China, India etc start to dominate - unless they go into reverse too.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tardis » 30 Mar 2012, 09:51


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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 16 Apr 2012, 05:45

Half of England is now officially in drought. It is assessed as being the worst since 1876 and the Met Office, while not making a long term forecast, say that the probability is that there will be no respite and on present knowledge worst case assessment says that we will enter 2013 with even less reserves than this year and that this should be part of any forward planning. Makes you wonder what the cost to the general economy is. For the first time to my knowledge the dreaded 'standpipe' word has been used. Water rationing for the Olympics?
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 16 Apr 2012, 09:30

For a decade or more, meteorologists and scientists have been restrained and held to the view that what we are seeing can only be described as extremes of weather and does not necessarily relate to the observed change in climate. But surely we are reaching a stage where we have to admit that there is now a high probability that it is due to the change in climate. I'm sure that many scientists already believe this is the case but they are not sticking their heads above the parapet.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by PanBiker » 16 Apr 2012, 13:15

With regard to water shortages, how many reservoirs have been built since the last time we had a nationwide drought? Nearly 40 years since the last serious one and the population will have gone up and urban sprawl had a further big impact on the resources particularly in the South. What the hell do they expect?
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Pluggy » 16 Apr 2012, 14:40

Most of the south use groundwater rather than reservoirs. But the water table is dropping as they use it faster than its replenished. Some wealthy individuals are having private wells bored to get by the hosepipe ban but it isn't going to do the big picture any good. Its difficult, expensive and largely self defeating to build reservoirs in the south because the higher rock layers are porous and they need an impervious membrane (a gigantic pond liner in effect) to stop it seeping away, but it just stops it reaching the water table where most of the water is drawn from anyway.

What we really need is a population cull, but I can't see many politicians going for that one.....

Piping water from Scotland where they are swamped with the stuff is a more expensive but more politically acceptable route.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 17 Apr 2012, 05:13

Re. aquifers: I came across lowering of water tables when I was in New South Wales. Wheat growing in areas like Dubbo where my dad was born is only possible by using irrigation from deep bores into the aquifers. Over the years the levels have dropped and wells have had to be extended to get to the water. There is an enormous aquifer under Perth in Western Australia which is continually supplied by sea water permeating through the sand and losing most of its salt in the process. However it picks up iron and anywhere where it is used for parks and irrigation it leaves a deposit of iron oxide.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 21 Apr 2012, 04:30

Bumped
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 21 Apr 2012, 06:01

I suppose the generally rainy weather will have knocked comment on drought out of the news even though a few day's rain makes no difference. Butts Beck flowing well and I reflected that the becks on the moor feeding Elslack reservoir will be doing the same. How people further south would love to see similar flows in their watercourses.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Whyperion » 21 Apr 2012, 08:42

Rain has two reasonable effects , if managed properly , as well as topping up reserves it also reduces the need for abstraction of water from all other sources , which effectively doubles the usefulness of a rain showers.

Are there any useful plants that can grow in both conditions of baking droughts , winter rain shortfalls and the soggy waterlogged conditions all at variable times of year and which may last as conditions for months, or for years given longer term climate change ?

Will de-salination works around the country be a necessary and effective means of producing water for agricultural irrigation and watering of livestock ?

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 22 Apr 2012, 09:53

The plants can survive those conditions but they've got more sense than to try and grow in all of them, so they usually employ dormancy as a means of passing through one to get to the other. The dormant state might be a seed or a tuber for example.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Whyperion » 22 Apr 2012, 13:07

Seed state is probably better as they tend to work on half lives , with 50% of seeds germinating each year , leaving a supply if conditions that year are poor to enable full growth. Are the seeds on a timer , or do they chemically talk to each other ?

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 22 Apr 2012, 16:03

No more on timers or talking to each other than humans, Whippy. It's all down to probability, statistical distributions...like annuities.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by catgate » 23 Apr 2012, 18:20


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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 23 Apr 2012, 18:58

What I know Catty is that the web site you link to is selective in what it repeats of the interview, using what it prefers people to read. The full original is here on MSN: LINK

James Lovelock has always walked on the wild side. He's passionate about Earth and he wrote his books in a dramatic style to make sure they got attention because he was so concerned by the increasing body of evidence that humans were destroying the stability of the oceans and atmosphere. That's why he used his Gaia theory and risked being accused of saying the Earth was a god or goddess - which many did accuse him off, not fully understanding what he was trying to achieve. But he's still a scientist and if a scientist sees the latest sound evidence is supporting something different to his present ideas he will change them - which is a lot more than the climate change deniers will do.

A lot of the original interview isn't repeated in the web site you quote. For instance "He [Lovelock] said he still thought that climate change was happening, but that its effects would be felt farther in the future than he previously thought. `We will have global warming, but it’s been deferred a bit,' Lovelock said." Also "He said human-caused carbon dioxide emissions were driving an increase in the global temperature...".

MSN quoted Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution at the UK Meterological Office Hadley Centre as agreeing Lovelock had been "too alarmist with claims about people having to live in the Arctic by 2100" and that the rate of warming in recent years had been less than expected by the climate models. It goes on: "However, Stott said this was a short-term trend that could be within the natural range of variation and it would need to continue for another 10 years or so before it could be considered evidence that something was missing from climate models. Stott said temperature records and other observations were `broadly speaking continuing to pan out' with what was expected." Stott also said of Lovelock “I like the fact he’s provocative and provokes people to think about these things”.

Thanks for posting the link Catty - there's nowt like open debate!

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by catgate » 23 Apr 2012, 21:28

What I find so totally repugnant about the whole idea of "global warming" is the way every commercial entity with a product, service or what have you, to sell, and every organisation that can make rules. and order matters to their own financial benefit, have been stoking up a false head of steam regardless, using the false science they have been financing.
Global warming has become the new devil and the worlds populations must obey the new priests of Gaia in order to save their souls.
What no one has yet accepted is that just as a culture of micro organisms in a Petri dish full of agar can rapidly cause their own extinction, through their reproductive efforts' consuming all the available sustenance, so will mankind eventually over populate this planet....and that could well happen before "global warming", and could even be accelerated by the counter global warming "precautions".
However there is no profit to be made from this latter scenario.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Stanley » 24 Apr 2012, 01:31

In a way Catty is right about the low standards in the debate about the science of global warming made worse of course because it is conflated with the problem of atmospheric pollution which whilst relevant should be treated separately. It is a very dirty debate skewed by partial interests. You pays your money, and makes your choice based on what you think is the good science. I believe global warming is happening and support Lovelock's basic thesis, the Gaia Theory. That is as much as any of us can do, assess the evidence and take a view. The one thing that is certain is that there will be individual opinions. The trick is not to get baffled by the bum info and throw the baby out with the bathwater. This is 'work in progress' and nobody is 'right'.
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by catgate » 24 Apr 2012, 12:04

Stanley wrote:In a way Catty is right about.......'.
Thank you for those kind words, Stanley. It is nice to be right about something......even if it is only "in a way".

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Pluggy » 24 Apr 2012, 17:18

Having read up on the Gaia theory/philosphy/hypothesis because I was clueless, from my reading it would be more in line with climate change sceptics views than advocates. Viewing the earth as a self regulating entity certainly doesn't need priests saving us from global warming. Catty should be on board with Gaia because it say's it will sort itself out no matter what we do because its self regulating, no profit in Gaia it seems......
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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Whyperion » 24 Apr 2012, 17:49

Yes , the earth wont get fried from Global Warming and species will change and a few humans might even be able to cope with conditions - unless they have all fought each other to death.

Somewhat lumped together in with pollution issues as many of the attitudes of 'its not our problem' particulary of large business interests and mass consumers are involved with the long term consequences of thought and behaviour. There are certainly more pressing and immediate issues to many population groups accross the world than climate change , but we ( western democracies and our financial creditors ) do have a power to plan for the future to minimise our adverse impacts on the planet ( and ultimately ourselves ).

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by catgate » 24 Apr 2012, 19:53

Pluggy wrote:Having read up on the Gaia theory/philosphy/hypothesis because I was clueless, from my reading it would be more in line with climate change sceptics views than advocates. Viewing the earth as a self regulating entity certainly doesn't need priests saving us from global warming. Catty should be on board with Gaia because it say's it will sort itself out no matter what we do because its self regulating, no profit in Gaia it seems......
Yes, perhaps instead of saying "the new priests of Gaia" I should have said "the false profits of Gaia" to make my meaning a little clearer.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 25 Apr 2012, 09:22

I find it sad to hear Catty referring to `false science' and especially implying James Lovelock might have been `doing it all for profit'. Lovelock , now in his 90s, bought himself a cottage and barn 50 years ago just north of Dartmoor when such places were cheap and set up his own one-man laboratory in the barn and made his own equipment. He has had research grants from places such as NASA and money from his books but has never been a big earner and lives a modest life.

There are lots of moneymakers and profiteers who jump on bandwagons and they are the ones to be wary of. While the climate scientists are trying to give an objective and accurate assessment of the causes and extent of climate change, these people dive in and start promoting it as gospel using whatever misleading methods they have available. The scientists end up trapped between the deniers and the promoters.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by catgate » 25 Apr 2012, 11:21

Tizer wrote:I find it sad to hear Catty referring to `false science' and especially implying James Lovelock might have been `doing it all for profit'.
I have reread my post and can not see where I have maligned Lovelock.
I did write ".... and the worlds populations must obey the new priests of Gaia in order to save their souls." But these new priests of Gaia are the new "profits" of doom. The false scientists and their commercial backers.

Very little modern "science" is free range. Most of it is battery caged and financed for profit. The majority of it based on providing the "farmer" with the answer he wants, by what ever means possible, even if it means being economical with reality. One only has to look at the "side effects" on all modern prescribed medicines to see how the farmer introduces selectivity into the interpretation of scientific work.

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Re: CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

Post by Tizer » 25 Apr 2012, 19:09

I can understand your views expressed above Catty. Oh for the good old days when science in the UK was mostly public or university funded, and independent. Or even earlier, funded by folk with enquiring minds, not just those wanting to make a swift buck. When British universities did all their agricultural research on public funding we were regarded as the world's best and scientists and students came from all over the world to learn agricultural science in the UK. They went back to their own countries and improved the agriculture and the lot of the local people and we benefited from the exchange of ideas and the flow of better quality products back here.

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