BEWARE! THE BANKS ARE OUT TO GET YOU!

[Stanley]

All transport obeys Parkinson's Law, passenger numbers always expand to fill the available space. I agree with Kev and Tiz, if we have that money to spend lets use it to find a way to run gold plated contracts within budget!
Too often these are vanity projects and in the case of London, projects like Cross Rail simply swell the population and drag in money from the rest of the country to feed the Great Wen.

[Stanley]

Remembering Carillion and the growing concern about the activities of the Big Four accountants keep an eye on these similar businesses as we move into the brave new world of 2109. Amey,Interserve, Kier and Capita. They are all working on the same model as Carillion and are all heading into the same problems. Any failure is going to cause immense problems. All are 'Cunning Wheeze' based businesses, there may be a clue there.

[Tizer]

And keep an eye on those Big Four accounting firms too,(Ernst & Young (EY), Deloitte, KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). `According to Australian taxation expert George Rozvany, the Big Four are "the masterminds of multinational tax avoidance and the architects of tax schemes which cost governments and their taxpayers an estimated $US1 trillion a year". At the same time they are advising governments on tax reforms, they are advising their multinational clients how to avoid taxes.' (Wikipedia)

[Stanley]

PE is full of examples of the conflicts between the accounting arms and the consultancy element in the make up of the Big Four. Also some startling examples of massive consultancy payments to shadowy consultants with terrible track records. We are talking Cross Rail and HS2 scale investments here....

[Stanley]

See THIS report on the Trump shut-down which backs up what Tiz said on another topic. This is dangerous globally, not just as a domestic US spat. (Events Dear Boy)

[Stanley]

To reinforce the above, see THIS Guardian report of reaction in the US to the fall of the stock market by 14% this month. This is the biggest fall since the Great Depression.... Trump's economic miracle is looking a bit dodgy.....

[Stanley]

The Dow Jones index fell 4% yesterday..... Have a look at THIS report. That's bad enough but Trump says the Fed is the culprit. What a strange world he lives in. Problem is that it is a parallel universe in which Trump is God and can do no wrong. How long before Nemesis strikes him down? This is of course inevitable but the problem is the damage he will do before it catches up with him. Events Dear Boy.
Later.... The Nikkei 225 has fallen 5% today.......

[Stanley]

Lots to keep an eye on; outsourcing, the markets and perhaps more immediately, the High Street shops. Expectations are for even deeper discounts in the January Sales and drops in profits that could have serious consequences.

[Stanley]

The Dow jumped back 5% yesterday. Is this a good sign? Not necessarily, 85% of trading is robotic and most algorithms track price changes. The really significant figure is that in order to recover losses in 2018 the NY market will have to gain 1800 points in the next two days which seems highly unlikely.

[Stanley]

High Street. HMV have announced they are going into administration.

[Stanley]

See THIS for more on the volatile US markets and the mechanisms at work. Trump is living dangerously.....

[Tizer]

The FT headline this morning is `US stocks close lower after wild ride. Global equities on track for worst year in a decade'.

Another FT headline shows us that US banks seem to be competing with UK banks in a race to the bottom...
`Wells Fargo to pay $575m more over sales practices. Settlement with 50 US states is latest over fake accounts and mis-selling scandals'

[Stanley]

It's a worrying picture all round Tiz. I can't help remembering Harold.......

HERE'S an interesting take on the situation from the NYTimes.

[Stanley]

See THIS for a Guardian report on the bombshell that Apple dropped on their investors with a letter forecasting a major drop in iPhone sales and profits. Unusually, Apple is discounting the prices of some products. Downhill all the way since the much vaunted Trillion Dollar valuation of the company......

[Tizer]

`Top boss pay overtakes staff in three days, report says' LINK
`In the first three days of 2019 top bosses will have earned more than the typical worker will earn all year, according to a report....'

Not satisfied with that, this is what the top bosses get up to...
`Ex-Credit Suisse bankers arrested over '$2bn fraud scheme' LINK

[Stanley]

The snout in trough culture has been allowed to grow to the point where it is is a threat to industrial relations. I note that noises are being made criticising 'independent remuneration committees'. About time, dog doesn't eat dog and these people have no incentive to hold executive salaries to a reasonable level.
Another aspect of executive pay that needs reform is the so-called 'performance payments' wheeze. We saw with Persimmon how an accident of circumstance (deeply suspect in itself!) can lead to obscene levels of remuneration.

[Stanley]

See THIS Guardian account of the TUC report on household debt. They say it is now an average of £15,400 per family. The BofE seem to be favouring a lower figure but may not be accounting for some items like Student Debt which is included in the TUC figure. The TUC point out that this doesn't include Xmas spending.

[Tizer]

The BBC report says, `The TUC arrived at its figure for unsecured debt by adding up the total amount owed in bank overdrafts, personal loans, store cards, payday loans and outstanding credit card debts, as well as student loans....Bank of England figures, excluding student loans, give a debt total of half the TUC's estimate.'

[Stanley]

So who do we trust? Personally I favour adopting Worst Case and acting on that. Whoever is right, debt is the big problem for both the public and UK PLC! Phantom Money rules! Look where that always takes us to.

[Tizer]

Both are right, they are just measuring different things.

[Stanley]

Agreed. That doesn't damage my contention that we should adopt 'worst case' responses. I don't think anyone could argue that the rise in debt is healthy.
A ban on cold calls on pension matters comes into force today. It remains to be seen how effective this will be. Will it apply to calls originating outside the UK?

[Wendyf]

Col was looking for annuity rates online yesterday and went on an annuity advice website. Within 2 minutes of entering his name and email address the phone rang and an "advisor" was on the line. He hadn't provided a phone number and nothing had come up automatically on the screen, so that info was harvested behind the form on screen. He was furious !

[Stanley]

Quite right too! I take it as read that he marked their card?

[Wendyf]

Oh yes.

[Tizer]

Wendy, can you be sure it wasn't simply a coincidence? Scam calls and emails are done all the time just trawling through lists of numbers or addresses. They do very well out of coincidences!