Stanley wrote: ↑06 Apr 2020, 03:38
The economic and social damage caused by this virus is going to far outweigh the direct results of the infection.
I think that was what trump was implying, I am not sure he has the answer to being stuck between a rock and a hard place.
With those that are not quite in either main financial support groups, the other assistents re rent and mortgage relief are about which can abate some of the difficulties. Its not a total disaster for their personal finances but I suspect govt. will cook up a little more extension support beyond basic UC for some folk )
A BBC article looks at the cruise ship business and asks `Will we ever take cruise holidays again?' LINK After discussing covid and norovirus virus outbreaks on the cruise ships it continues...
`So, will this put the industry's rapid expansion in recent years into reverse? The sector certainly has one major problem that means it is likely to suffer more than other parts of the tourism and travel industries such as the airline sector - it has few friends in high places. Most cruise ships are not registered where they do business, in the USA and Europe, but offshore in places like Panama and the Bahamas. The industry does that for two reasons - it saves a fortune in tax, and it means that they don't have to follow American or European labour laws. This allows the companies to recruit cheap workers from developing countries, pay them less, and work them harder. Now, however, avoiding taxes and hiring cheap foreign workers doesn't look so clever - the cruise line industry was specifically not included in the US's business bailout schemes. The industry may be in dire straits, but it is crying in the dark.
`And even if governments wanted to help, which they don't appear to, as Prof Muller points out: "It is hard to give a tax break if they pay no taxes". Not only that, but many of the destinations loved by their passengers are not missing the cruise liners very much, if at all. As Prof Sheela Agarwal, from Plymouth University's department of tourism and hospitality, puts it: "No one is willing to bail them out because of their tax avoidance, but also because of the negative impacts they have at their destinations... they contribute very little to the local economy".'
Nullius in verba: On the word of no one (Motto of the Royal Society)
Add to that the problem that they face in common with all other major ship operators. They massage their bottom line by using the dirtiest (and therefore cheapest) high sulphur heavy oil they can obtain as fuel. Didn't I see a series of reports not long ago about contamination found on the upper decks of many large cruise ships?
I still remember the description I saw recently of cruise liners as 'enormous floating Petrie Dishes'.
Stanley Challenger Graham
Stanley's View
scg1936 at talktalk.net
"Beware of certitude" (Jimmy Reid)
The floggings will continue until morale improves!
They also keep their diesel engines running while anchored in port. I remember the BBC environment correspondent (Roger Harrabin perhaps) saying how he lived near where cruise ships anchored and he could hear and smell the engines from his house.
Nullius in verba: On the word of no one (Motto of the Royal Society)
See THIS BBC account of the latest report on the Chinese economy which has shrunk from a lacklustre (for China) performance of 6% growth last year to -6%, a fall of 12%. This is not good news for the rest of the world.....
Stanley Challenger Graham
Stanley's View
scg1936 at talktalk.net
"Beware of certitude" (Jimmy Reid)
The floggings will continue until morale improves!
The Treasury is being pressured to give a 100% guarantee on the small business loans as banks aren't risking their 20% and hardly any money is being released. See THIS BBC report on the possible move. Surely those nice kind bank managers will remember the way we guaranteed their debts.....?
Stanley Challenger Graham
Stanley's View
scg1936 at talktalk.net
"Beware of certitude" (Jimmy Reid)
The floggings will continue until morale improves!
Santander have reduced their Instant Access account down from 0.1% to 0.01% . Depositing £100 for a year will give you 1p interest. But the good news is that the inflation rate is currently 1.5%. God only knows what it will be when we start to 'recover' In effect your £100 is going down by £1.50 every year.
For years its been policy to make poor people feel more wealthy. Unfortunately the modern making them feel wealthier actually makes them poorer. This may sound like alchemy turning lead into gold but finishing up with more lead. How is this done? Simple lend them money and tell them they can repay it tomorrow. In entering 2020 personal debt not including mortgages reached an all time high. eg:
UK city breakdown of credit card debt
City Debt
London £19,656, Birmingham £13,757, Bristol £10,297, Norwich £10,187, Nottingham £9,952, Brighton £9,471
Manchester £8,869, Sheffield £8,494, Glasgow £7,768, Leeds £7,473, Southampton £7,450, Edinburgh £6,411, Newcastle £5,308,
More than a third (38%) of those polled said they have credit card debt, 19% personal loan, 19% bank overdraft, 12% car loan and 6% payday loan.
The problem now for the banks is that with the lockdown many people will not be able to service these loans. Also if the lockdown extends into months then people will see that its not a good idea to be living beyond their means and take a different approach to borrowing expensive money. From this there is a whole series of knock on events and unintended consequences. Do you follow high fashion trends, go on holidays abroad, buy the latest phone or electronic widget? Lockdown is changing the face of the economy but it may be the banks that suffer the most in the long run.
How fortunate we are, no personal loan, no bank overdraft, no car loan and no payday loan Unless you count the amount we have on credit card which will be paid off in full when due.
Sad fact is, some folk will have all of them and the stress that probably goes with it, (for some of them), others won't care a jot which is even sadder.
Indeed Ian, I am in the same position but then I don't spend money following fashion or doing what I am told everybody else is doing! "Lockdown is changing the face of the economy "
I'm sure that's right P. Take just one trade, hairdressing. Unless you are living with one this is impossible now. How many people will find that it is quite possible to live a satisfactory life without paying an arm and a leg each week to a hairdresser? How many will survive what is going to be an extended shut down? It seems to me that the trade only becomes viable again when people can be sure they are protected by a vaccine or immunity and neither of those is available.
As for the banks, they have spent the last ten years distancing themselves from their customers and might find that the cunning plan has worked only too well. Will they have a retail base in ten years?
So many things have had to be rethought. I don't think it's going to be possible to go back to business as usual when this lot starts to settle down.
Stanley Challenger Graham
Stanley's View
scg1936 at talktalk.net
"Beware of certitude" (Jimmy Reid)
The floggings will continue until morale improves!
THIS article on Warren Buffet and his investments is worth reading. There is little doubt that the disruption of the pandemic is not going to suddenly end with a return to 'happy days are here again'. This gives us some clues, Buffet has a habit of getting it right!
Stanley Challenger Graham
Stanley's View
scg1936 at talktalk.net
"Beware of certitude" (Jimmy Reid)
The floggings will continue until morale improves!
Yup. He announced later that they had sold the lot.
I watched a Youtube video last night that was a aerial tour at low level, of the storage sites in the Mojave desert being used by the airlines to warehouse their redundant airliners as a consequence of the collapse of air transport. (They use the desert because of the lack of humidity) It's also being used to store the 737 Max planes that are unsold or grounded. Absolutely mind-boggling the amount of capital sat doing nothing. Bear in mind of course that that isn't all of them! Must be a good time to own shares in those sites!
This situation is going to change everything. Why does the new runway at Heathrow and HS2 spring to mind.....?
Stanley Challenger Graham
Stanley's View
scg1936 at talktalk.net
"Beware of certitude" (Jimmy Reid)
The floggings will continue until morale improves!
These big tech companies are not as ethically sound as they like to make out...
`Amazon vice-president quits over virus firings' LINK
`A vice-president at Amazon has quit "in dismay" at the internet giant's crackdown on workers who criticised it over coronavirus safety measures. Tim Bray described the firing of protesters as "evidence of a vein of toxicity running through the company culture". Workers have criticised Amazon for not doing enough to protect warehouse staff against the virus..'.
Nullius in verba: On the word of no one (Motto of the Royal Society)
And not the only areas where such doubts are being raised Tiz. We have all seen the multiple reports about failings in our systems despite the reassurances issued daily by government. What happens when all the pigeons come home to roost eventually? There is a limit to how far spin can protect the system.
Is this another unintended consequence lurking in the wings?
Stanley Challenger Graham
Stanley's View
scg1936 at talktalk.net
"Beware of certitude" (Jimmy Reid)
The floggings will continue until morale improves!
I watch the reports of the fall in retail activity and note that the main reason is seen to be falls in incomes due to lockdown. My fear is that this will not get better and we may see people forced into even more use of expensive credit. This is bad enough now but all the pressures suggest yet more increases. There will be plenty of sharks circling to take advantage of this trend.
Stanley Challenger Graham
Stanley's View
scg1936 at talktalk.net
"Beware of certitude" (Jimmy Reid)
The floggings will continue until morale improves!
My fear is that this will not get better and we may see people forced into even more use of expensive credit. When you get people like Warren Buffett, who incidentally has a credit credit card company, saying the best thing you can do with your money is to pay down your credit card debt. At 18%+ interest rare its the best investment you can make. Why isn't the government pushing this fact? The economy is to held up by those at the bottom. The Ragged-Trousered Philanthropists (1914) spring to mind.
And he's right P! Most of my life was devoted to getting out of the clutches of the money-lenders! In my case it was reasonable debt generated by house purchase but the situation of the poor families who have been forced into sky high interest costs is a type of modern slavery. Thankfully I am now in a position where, though not rich by most peoples standards I can avoid paying any interest whatsoever. As anyone knows who is similarly situated it is bliss.
A perfect world for me would be where everybody who was prepared to work had access to a secure job that paid a genuine living wage. The highest goal of democratic government should be to work to achieve this. Unfortunately we have allowed an ethos to develop where the highest rewards are for the greatest greed and control has been given to the capital holders. This leaves us with a growing underclass who support the top small percentage of wealth holders. It used to be the labouring poor but over the years it has spread upwards until now large swathes of what used to the the 'middle classes' are being dragged down into poverty. I see no prospect of this ending.
I used to be optimistic about the prospects for a more equitable society and up to the 1950s it looked as though we were on track, every generation was better off than the one before. That prospect has vanished and now we are slipping backwards as all the indices and even life expectancy move against improvement.
This is, to say the least, a flawed model and contains within itself the seeds of disaster. This is clearly visible now and yet we seem to be helpless as we are swept away by the tide of consequence. Sorry but I see very little sign of any hope.
Stanley Challenger Graham
Stanley's View
scg1936 at talktalk.net
"Beware of certitude" (Jimmy Reid)
The floggings will continue until morale improves!
I think back to when Tiz was managing his pension and annuity when he retired. At the time I commiserated with him on the changed circumstances and the deterioration in yield. I wonder what it's like now? I'll bet that what he got then looks generous compared with present settlements.
I also wonder what's happening now in the pension scam business under the fog of lockdown and the stress of living. I'm willing to bet it's not a pretty picture.
Stanley Challenger Graham
Stanley's View
scg1936 at talktalk.net
"Beware of certitude" (Jimmy Reid)
The floggings will continue until morale improves!
