POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

The question is ' who is Mrs May accountable to if the MP's are left out of vetting the final agreement? This is approaching dictatorship levels.
Spot on as usual P. I watched her 'laughing' at Corbyn last night in a TV clip. This is no way to counter what was a valid criticism of the budget. One thing I have noted of late is that the plight of the poorest has been completely written out of the Tory script. References are always to those 'in work'. To hear Hammond yesterday you would think we have a rock solid economy with rosy prospects. A bit of honesty and clarity about the immense and growing National Debt would be welcome.....
Tiz, I agree about 'advisers'. I think part of the problem is the proliferation of SPADS, the unpaid advisers seconded to the government by the big accountants and banking houses whose 'advice' is often partial. I don't agree with Heseltine's politics but have to admit to his experience of government and that should be the criterion in choosing an adviser, quality rather than quantity.
As to what will influence the tone of negotiations with the EU. I suspect one of the main ones is the fact that not everyone voted in the referendum and of those that did the result was a split down the middle. This can only be regarded as a mandate on purely legal terms and is not an accurate reflection of reality. There is also the small question of how many have changed their minds since. I suspect that a re-run could produce a very different result. The EU knows this and it is this 'mandate' that is at the core of May's stance. She is acting as though she is leading a united country which is a long way from the truth.
A small news item slipped out today about the efficacy of the revolving door. Ossie has landed a part time job with Blackrock investment fund that pays £650,000 a year. Nice work if you can get it!

[Tripps]

Fascinating to hear various, seemingly intelligent, people explaining yesterday that a firm promise not to increase NIC, did not in fact mean that they could not increase them.
'We only increased Class 4 contributions ' - 'we didn't raise the rate for Class 4 above that for Class 1 - so that's OK' were among the best.

I checked out Sophocles he is reputed to have said

“All men make mistakes, but a good man yields when he knows his course is wrong, and repairs the evil."

We may yet see a reversal - but of course, even if they do they won't admit they were wrong.

I've seen Comrade Corbyn's reply to the budget yesterday , which to be fair is the toughest gig in Parliament, described as 'leaden footed' . Sounds about right to me.

[Stanley]

I watched Laura Kuenssberg's programme on Brexit last night. That woman is a smart cookie and it was fascinating to see her getting the Brexiteers to stick to their line. Even the £350million a week!
Why do we keep hearing the phrase "Mrs May will negotiate"when we all know it will be a team of civil servants doing the donkey work?
Noticeable that Trump is keeping his head down. Do you think the penny has dropped after someone has told him that in the end it is unproductive to keep annoying everyone and that he is vulnerable? I am waiting for the implosion.....

[Tizer]

The new man appointed by Trump to lead the US Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt, the very man whose objective is to shut down the Agency, has said yesterday that he doesn't believe CO2 is the cause of climate change. This is terrible. As an analogy, imagine a home where the young parents don't smoke so their kids don't inhale carcinogens and they feed them a healthy diet and give them plenty of exercise, then grandad comes to live with them and insists on smoking 20 cigarettes a day. They tell him cigarette smoke causes cancer but he says "No , it's not proven, more work needs to be done." Pruitt is like that grandad.

`EPA Head Pruitt Denies the Basic Science of Climate Change' LINK
"Wrapping himself unabashedly in the mantle of climate science denial, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt declared on Thursday that he does not believe carbon dioxide is a primary contributor to global warming. The statement contradicts a firmly established tenet of climate change science. By questioning it, Pruitt appeared to signal a coming challenge by the Trump administration to the agency's key science finding that obligates it to regulate carbon dioxide pollution from the burning of fossil fuels. It sparked a chorus of unambiguous contradiction from leading scientists, including those working at the foremost government institutions. "Mr. Pruitt is wrong," said one of them, Ben Santer of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. "Embracing ignorance is not an option." In an interview on CNBC's Squawk Box program, Pruitt was asked by host Joe Kernen if he believes that carbon dioxide is the "primary control knob for climate." "I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do and there's tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact," Pruitt answered. "So no, I would not agree that it's a primary contributor to the global warming that we see." Pruitt added, "We need to continue the debate and continue the review and the analysis."

[Tripps]

Meanwhile closer to home - Pendle politics is getting interesting.

[Stanley]

Tiz, I have to ask myself how competent the politicians on the Hill are. We hear of Republican opposition to Trump. It's high time they got as serious about controlling him as they did about Obama.
As for Pendle Council, it beats me why anyone votes for the Tories if they are looking at pure local politics. I suspect they are swayed by Westminster and duped by the dodgy messages coming out of there as the Tories assume they are resurgent. I think it's an illusion. Politics was always smoke and mirrors, it is now never never land......

[Tizer]

'Trump lies all the time': Bernie Sanders indicts president's assault on democracy Guardian story
"Exclusive: the former presidential candidate suggested that Donald Trump’s false claims serve a purpose – to push the United States toward authoritarianism. Bernie Sanders has launched a withering attack on Donald Trump, accusing him of being a pathological liar who is driving America towards authoritarianism. In an interview with the Guardian, the independent senator from Vermont, who waged a spirited campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, gave a bleak appraisal of the new White House and its intentions. He warned that Trump’s most contentious outbursts against the media, judiciary and other pillars of American public life amounted to a conscious assault on democracy. “Trump lies all of the time and I think that is not an accident, there is a reason for that. He lies in order to undermine the foundations of American democracy.”
Full transcript of Guardian interview

[Stanley]

Bernie may have a point. Politicians have always used the media of the day to attempt to gain influence whether by truth or lies. Once of a day the only avenues were broadsheets and word of mouth but today the media (driven largely by advertising) is all pervasive and reaches everyone. The advent of social media has exacerbated this and it is possible now to whisper in everyone's ear unless they are a hermit. This and playing to the gallery in the shape of the Lowest Common Denominator has led us to where we are at now. Let's not kid ourselves that it is any better here in the UK. The principles of manipulation that lie behind Naomi Klein's explanation of the 'Shock Doctrine' apply here. In that case it was corporate America manipulating the playing field. That's the breeding ground that Trump comes from and yes, the ultimate result could be an authoritarian state simply on the grounds that 'Something must be done to counter this menace!' Recognise that one, the use of fear as a management tool. Simple and effective.....

[Stanley]

Thanks to Private Eye for drawing this to my attention. It's a quotation from Jonathan Swift's essay "The Art of Political Lying" published in The Examiner on the 9th of November 1710. Some things never change!

"The superiority of his genius consists in nothing else but an inexhaustible fund of political lies which he plentifully distributes every minute he speaks and by an unparalleled generosity forgets and consequently contradicts [in] the next half hour. He never considered whether any proposition were true or false, but whether it was convenient for the present minute or company to affirm or deny it. The only remedy is to suppose that you have heard some inarticulate sounds, without any meaning at all."

Does that remind you of anyone or any class of speakers?

[plaques]

Do you want a list?? Here is a short one.

Newspapers.
Politicians.
Ministers.
Prime Ministers.
Presidents.

Try a read at 'Dial 'M' for Murdoch. by Tom Watson & Martin Hickman. (Lancashire Libraries) The problem is that virtually everything you read or every statement we hear needs a detailed analysis to extract the exact meaning. Answers given to plane straight forward questions are often non answers with the substance deflected onto a totally different subject. No wonder we are in the hole we are in.

[Stanley]

Exactly right in my opinion P. You evidently learned the same lessons through life as I did. Every statement needs forensic analysis and it shouldn't be like this.
Nicola Sturgeon's statement about the need for a new referendum in Scotland on independence needs no such analysis. It was clear, to the point and supported by evidence. It's not for me to say whether her conclusion is right or not but she certainly has the right to put it forward. Theresa May's response illustrated exactly the 'brick wall of intransigence' that Nicola complains about. It was clear 'colonial' thinking and ignored the merits of the Scottish point of view completely. She characterised Nicola and her party as wreckers of the Union which, if truth be told, always been a very ill-founded concept.
When May made her speech to the Scottish Conservatives recently she peddled exactly the same colonial line and I commented at the time that this was not a conciliatory attitude but rigid opposition to the legitimate aspirations of the Scots. We now see the results of this ham-fisted attitude to negotiation.
This is a straw in the wind because it betrays the government attitude towards negotiations with the EU. The object of proper 'negotiation' is in the title, it is to find a way to match aspirations in the least damaging course from A to B. It starts with conciliation not antagonism and depends on identifying the other party's point of view. You don't start by sending the gunboats in!
Ask yourself why the Scottish Labour Party and the Scottish Conservatives failed abjectly in the Scottish elections, it was for this same reason. The Labour Party complained they were treated like a 'back office' by London and this is exactly the same syndrome. It reinforces my contention that the politicians are inept in that they don't understand the basics of negotiation in search of a way to agreement and mutual benefit. They see only their own 'sovereignty' and benefit. This does not bode well for the EU 'negotiations'.....

[Tizer]

Quoted from BBC web page:
When Mrs May's spokeswoman was asked later if there was still scope for Scotland to stay in the single market, she replied: "The PM was very clear - we are leaving the single market." In her speech, the prime minister urged people across the UK to "face the future together, united by what makes us strong". Mrs May said: "We will put the preservation of our precious union at the heart of everything we do. "Because it is only by coming together as one great union of nations and people that we can make the most of the opportunities ahead."

What a pity that her Brexiteers didn't recognise the same need for unity in Europe before the EU referendum.

[Stanley]

Further to that Tiz (and you are of course quite right) is the fact that May and her cohorts don't get it. The politicians correctly identified the strong national feelings in Wales and Scotland and acceded to the demand for devolved institutions but then did everything they could to slow down the transfer of powers. The fact that devolution was conceded was in itself an admission that such nationalistic tendencies existed. Then, purely because of the need of a weak PM to conciliate rebellious back-benchers Cameron came up with the bright idea of a referendum on Europe which some of us predicted was a red rag to a bull. He got the wrong result for reasons we all know and it finished his career. Another unintended consequence was that Scotland voted Remain and wants to retain the advantages of membership of the EU. This is what is playing out now and in the process the Union could well be broken. Who knows whether, once they grasp the full enormity of the changes caused by Brexit that Wales, Cornwall, The North...... (You make up the list) won't say I want some of that!
In truth, the UK's grasp on 'a seat at the table' in terms of being a global power is tenuous at best and what May sees looming is losing this position if the Union breaks up. Personally I'd welcome it but then I was always an oddball in this respect.
The situation isn't helped by fools like Bojo making vapid Jingoistic statements in which he sounds like a team captain at Eton motivating his men. In truth, the Tories are taking the biggest gamble since the South Sea Bubble and deep down they know it. There are too many unknown unknowns.....
So, where are we? Brexit has produced the ideal hotbed for nationalistic prejudices in Scotland and brought the prospect of the end of the Union closer. If you think about it this is exactly what happened in England during the referendum campaign when the Little Englanders waved their flags and made Johnny Foreigner the enemy. Shades of the Boys Own and Henty!
Remember I was reared in an ethos where every classroom had a world map on the wall coloured largely red and 'The Empire on which the Sun never set' was dinned into us every day. Even then the joke was that God didn't let the sun set on it because he didn't trust the buggers!
I can see why many Europeans simply can't comprehend why the UK is doing this. It isn't a biggie to them, they have a firmer grasp on reality and all notions of Empire were blasted out of them long ago. They are more interested in the 10% drop in EU income for running costs (Germany is on 7% and this will rise of course) and this means that our actions are damaging their economies before any trade matters are considered. I suspect that May and her gang are in for a shock but by then it will be too late...... Junkers was right, it's easy to imagine a scenario in the future when we will be knocking on the EU door again......

[Tizer]

News is just released that `Unemployment fell by 31,000 to 1.58 million in three months to January, official figures show'. That reminded me of a fact I read yesterday: in the period 2008 to 2014 employment rose by 1.1 million but 730,000 of those were self-employed. No wonder there was a strong reaction to the planned rise in NI contributions for the self-employed. Many of those `self-employed' people will be controlled by an organisation as if they are employees yet will not have the advantages of a true employee.

The news about Trump's 2005 tax return has caused a few ripples but what caught my attention was this comment in one of the reports: "The two pages show that Mr Trump paid $5.3m in federal income tax and an extra $31m in what is called alternative minimum tax (AMT). AMT was set up nearly 50 years ago to stop the wealthiest people from using deductions and loopholes to avoid paying taxes. Mr Trump has called for it to be abolished." We can see that Trump would benefit enormously from abolishing AMT. This is why we need to know about his tax affairs.

[Stanley]

The 'good news' about higher employment must be balanced against the lower than living standard wages paid by many jobs hence the need for us to subsidise business by paying Working Tax Credits. In addition, the number of Zero Hours jobs and unpaid 'internships' is rising. So many people with no overtime, holiday pay, sick pay, maternity benefits.......
May and Phil have had to do a reverse ferret on increase in NI taxes, White Van Man has won. Now Phil has to find an extra £2billion in the Autumn budget. Whatever happened to our money being safe in Tory hands?

[PanBiker]

Tories have been fined £70,00 for fiddling their election expenses return, apparently the largest slap on the wrist ever given. I reckon its not enough and I think most would agree, they conveniently failed to declare over £200,00 in expenses so why doesn't the fine at least equal the misdemeanour?

Noted also that Trump's latest dictate to ban visitors to thee U.S. from mainly Muslim countries has been overturned yet again, this time by the High Court in Hawaii. It's a wonder he hasn't called them "Johnny Foreigner" as well, after all they are not exactly next door neighbours to the rest of the union. Instead we have just had a rerun of the "I'm gonna fight them all the way, In the Supreme Court, they are not gonna win" diatribe, it could just as well be a record on repeat.

[Tizer]

In addition, the number of Zero Hours jobs and unpaid 'internships' is rising.

As well as zero hours contracts there are now also `key time contracts' under which you are guaranteed some work, but are not guaranteed regular hours each week. Citizens Advice has a lot of information on employment for anyone who needs advice: LINK

[Bruff]

I think the Electoral Commission is most likely bound in the amount of fine it can levy, informed by it only having civil powers. The CPS will consider whether anything criminal occurred and this may result in greater punishment. True to form of course, the response from the Tories is that of a child: ‘well all the others were at it miss/sir!' Pathetic. What a joke they are.

NI U-turn. I’m with the IFS on this. The UK tax system is complex, complicated and ridiculously inconsistent. In attempting to simplify there will be winners and losers. Yet for years, decades at least, no political party has been willing to have the difficult conversation about tax (and spend). Looks like they still won’t and the nation rejoices…………….

Don’t normally credit John McDonnell with anything but his description yesterday of the PM ‘honking like a feeding seal’ at the Chancellor’s jokes on Budget Day was choice.

Scotland to leave the Union? Who knows but as La Republica in Italy said: ‘Goodbye Great Britain, Hello Little England?’ Sometimes it pays to be aware of how others view our travails.

How intersting is the Dutch election? Not the failure of the Brexiteer’s favourite Wilders to break through but the range of parties and views. Nothing like the sclerotic and rotting FPTP system here. I heard young Dutch voters on the radio energised by the Greens and the D66(?) parties. What chance of that here? None as the electoral system is rigged against any breakthroughs like that whether they are from the left or the right.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Trump. Noticeable that Trump is getting more and more opposition and possibilities of opposition from The Hill especially after his budget hits the Environmental Agency and State, the latter of course controls Overseas Aid. It's a budget based on fear of immigrants (the wall), 'Terrorism' (Homeland security and The World (military spending) as all these get massive increases. In addition but not as widely publicised he has proposed cuts to internal programmes designed to help the old and disabled like meals on wheels. This man is no boon to the people. He has fallen out with almost everyone.....
As usual a good post Richard. I speculated that May was operating for a while under the delusion that the Tories were resurgent but I think she is perhaps getting the true picture now, she can't walk on water. The U-turn on NI was for one reason only, to defuse the revolting backbench opposition. Note, exactly the same cause as Cameron's Catastrophe. Brenda has signed the suicide note.... now May can send in the gunboats and get another bruising lesson. As Richard said a few days ago this will be portrayed as the perfidious Johnny Foreigner trying to hinder the UK move into the glorious sunlit uplands. Meanwhile the ND rises, incomes fall and very soon interest rates will rise.
I note that another carrot has been dangled in front of Toyota. How long can this ploy succeed when it is realised that there isn't enough money to subsidise industry beyond the present Working Tax Credits?
And of course there is the small matter of her flexing her muscles by flatly denying Scotland a referendum on independence until after Brexit. Predictably (The announcement was timed to coincide with the first day of the SNP annual conference), this has put both Parliaments at loggerheads. This the day after May told Sturgeon not to play politics. If this isn't political I don't know what is! Once again, conciliation is thrown out and the gunboats sent up the Forth. This doesn't bode well for the 'negotiations' with the EU. (Have I already mentioned that?.....)

[Stanley]

If you want to hear a very good discussion on Brexit go to listen again on the World Service and listen to News Extra, on from 4AM. An hour of common sense and rational discussion. One of the unanimous conclusions was that attempting to cherry-pick some aspects of membership (like staying in the Single Market) is a big mistake as the EU members will see this as an attack on the status quo. In addition they all doubt whether two years is long enough and rather than walking away at that point the UK should be negotiating now for an extension. They pointed out that even on the most optimistic forecast hard negotiations can't start before June and at that point the EU is off on its summer holiday, so that's 6 months lost straight away. One man who has been closely associated with the EU for years said that what was getting the attention in Brussels was the loss of 10% of their income when the UK leaves. This will be the biggest factor in any discussion of Brexit and ongoing financial contributions. Well worth listening to.....
Ossie and his masterly negotiation of the 'revolving door'.... His Tatton constituency will be abolished at the next election and he has made some decisions. He is now the editor of the Evening Standard, constituency MP for Tatton, public speaker and an adviser to Blackrock for four days a month on a stipend of £650,000 annually. He will no doubt have other irons in the fire..... Question is are we looking at Superman or a greedy b*****d? I'm sorry but I think the latter, he displays total cynicism for public opinion and the system. So no surprise there.

[PanBiker]

Ossie and his masterly negotiation of the 'revolving door'.... His Tatton constituency will be abolished at the next election and he has made some decisions. He is now the editor of the Evening Standard, constituency MP for Tatton, public speaker and an adviser to Blackrock for four days a month on a stipend of £650,000 annually. He will no doubt have other irons in the fire..... Question is are we looking at Superman or a greedy b*****d? I'm sorry but I think the latter, he displays total cynicism for public opinion and the system. So no surprise there.

London Evening Standard, AKA a vehicle for kicking his former boss after the poison chalice has done its work, that will probably be round 2020. Negotiations won't be over by then just a change of who is managing the ten year train wreck, I have always maintained that the two year deal is a non starter, no member nation has ever done this before, 27:1 starting point, ten years minimum I reckon.

[plaques]

London Evening Standard, AKA a vehicle for kicking his former boss

This is exactly what I've been thinking. Mrs May will have monopoly of the Rightwing press and nobody else will get a look in except in a negative sense. Ossie will be able to promote his own agenda and tell his side of the story while rubbishing the current cabinet. This will line himself up to be the next Prime minister when the Brexit hits the buffers.

[PanBiker]

I suppose that will depend on whether or not he continues as an MP, the Boundary Commission are doing away with his constituency I believe. He would have to stand somewhere else. A change of electorate may take a different view about setting a bloke on who already has four jobs.

[Tizer]

Ossie for PM? Or Boris? Mind you, by that time Sadiq Khan might lead the Labour Party (or some other party) and be in the running.

PJ O'Rourke was interviewed on the Today programme this morning. I mentioned a while back about him being interviewed in The Times, a Trump-hating Republican. He said he took his 16-year-old daughter during the election campaign to hear the speeches and asked for her views. She thought Clinton was boring. She said Trump "Didn't say anything". O'Rourke told her "That's what he does".
I liked his analogy for the situation with Trump. It's like your Olympic sailing team failing to do well so you decide to find someone better. You go out on the street and pick the first `fat loudmouth' you see and put him charge. And then you get "Hey, what happens if I let go of this rope?" Bang, crash, aaargh!

[Tripps]

This will line himself up to be the next Prime minister when the Brexit hits the buffers.

I think you have it there. Oddly enough I picked up a copy of the London Evening Standard in Sainsbury's last evening. Only the second time I've ever done that . To be fair - I'd only just noticed that it was free of charge. It was the 'West End Final' edition, but no mention of Osborne in it at all. Not too bad a read over my tea, and surprisingly little advertising . Not too sure how they measure his performance in the role, if to increase circulation all they need to do is give away more copies.

I think there is such a furore that something will give, and fairly soon - he has annoyed, and aroused jealousy in the wrong people.