POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

A whinge.....
Am I alone in hating David Davis' avuncular and patronising manner? See THISBBC clip of him 'explaining' to Laura Kuenssberg why giving ministers carte blanche to modify laws by Statutory Instrument is OK. I wouldn't trust him or his thesis any further than I could throw the government!

[Tizer]

The Mail and the Telegraph this morning are making much out of a few sentences in an interview with Lord Adonis. The Telegraph says "Tory MPs call for Lord Adonis to be sacked after he compared Nazi appeasement to Brexit". The article based on the interview is long LINK but this is the bit they're making a fuss about:

So, after such a pessimistic verdict on the current trajectory of the Brexit negotiations, how high are the stakes?
“My language is usually pretty subdued in politics. But anyone with a historical sense – and I’m a historian – recognises that leaving the economic institutions of the European Union, which have guided our destiny as a trading nation for half a century, is a very big step and the importance can’t be overemphasised. To my mind, it’s as big a step that we’re taking as a country as decolonisation in the 1950s and 60s and appeasement in the 1930s. We got it right on decolonisation; we got it wrong on appeasement and I think we’re in serious danger of getting it wrong in the way that we leave the EU.

“If we can’t have our cake and eat it then we face a serious relative decline in our living standards compared with France and Germany and I don’t believe the British people will put up with that. So we would, in that event, I believe face a crisis. It may be a crisis played out over quite a number of years – which, after all, is what happened with appeasement – but there will be a crisis. It’s important for political leaders like me to sound the alarm bell because it’s important to understand what might be at stake: in 18 months’ time, people may require visas to go to France. Can you imagine what the Great British public is going to think?”

[Stanley]

I saw that as well and heard him on R4. I don't have a lot of time for Adonis, he has never been elected by anyone but in this matter he makes a fair and reasonable point. The reason why the Tories are so exercised about it is that he is being clear and open about the dangers and the rest of the party are desperately trying to avoid reality as they get deeper and deeper into the morass caused by bad leadership, both Cameron and May. In terms of consequences the situation is just as bad as it was in the 1930s. I made the same argument in 2008 when the credit crisis hit the banks. We should apply the same remedy, a National Government and clear headed cooperation instead of arguing while Rome burns......
Notice the deathly hush in Downing Street. Even the head of the Audit Commission is breaking ranks to warn the government is in chaos on Brexit. The Marie Celeste springs to mind, a ghost ship!
Later.... I heard the news that Tony Blair had shoved his oar in again and thought oh god, when is he going to realise that no matter how much sense he makes he is Yesterday's man. Then I heard Frank Field commenting in the intervention.
I have a lot of respect for Frank but the first thing I heard was that he used 'renegade' instead of 'renege' and what was worse Nick Robinson repeated the solecism. (Pedant's corner again!)
What really interested me apart from Frank saying basically the same as me, that the man's credibility is shot he went on to say that if the negotiators at the EU thought Blair was a good conduit for getting information into the debate they were mistaken. This suggests to me that Frank knows something about this and perhaps this is indeed an intervention from Brussels intended to alert us to a possible way out. Frank is certainly well connected enough to get wind of this if it is the case.
Could they really be throwing us a lifeline? It is not without the bounds of probability.

[Tizer]

Blair popped up on the main slot on the Today programme this morning and I have to admit that I agreed with everything he said about Brexit. The interview is reported here: LINK At some point those who voted for Brexit are going to realise that they were conned; likewise, those who voted for Trump in the US - and then there's going to be real trouble. It's time for a U-turn before it gets too late.

[Stanley]

I agree Tiz, Blair makes a good case but he's in the same position as Tricky Dicky was in the US. Who, in their right minds, would buy a used car from this man? Any dispassionate view of Brexit must come to the conclusion that it is a potential disaster. Relying on the flag wavers who assure us we can return to the glorious days of Empire is stupid. This policy is being driven by the top 1% of wealth holders who control up to 40% of the national wealth. I wish someone would read the history!

[Tizer]

Observer front page article...
`Brexit: former civil service head warns Theresa May of chaos ' LINK

...and a BBC analysis of the various ideas for a new political party:
`What chance for a new 'centre ground' party in the UK?' LINK

[Stanley]

The impression I have at the moment is that the Cabinet is in chaos and it is slowly dawning on the back benchers that they are heading for a disaster. I forecast when May was waved into post that it was a poisoned chalice and this is exactly what is happening. They are going to melt down and if they don't replace her and have a general election the Tories will take a long time to recover from the Cameron/May era. If there is a GE we will probably see the unthinkable, a Labour government.
Meanwhile we know nothing about what is happening with Brexit because the truth would cause a revolt!

[Tizer]

I look at the images of the newspaper front pages each morning and today's seem to have more pessimism than I can remember seeing previously. Not just brexit and politics but all sorts of topics. For example The Times claims that the new jet fighters which are supposedly going to cost us between £77M and £100M each will actually cost £150M - and they have major faults too. It says the Government hadn't revealed the higher price to the public.

As for a General Election none of us know what would happen. Both main parties are now really two squabbling sub-parties. If you vote for either of them how can you be sure which sub-party you'd get? The faction that's dominant at the time of the election might be ousted soon after.

[Stanley]

There have been problems with the F35 in the US for a long time, do a search on the web. It could be the biggest MOD mistake ever at that price!
It's no wonder that the media are becoming pessimistic. Most of them are on the Right and support the Tories and it is becoming obvious even to them that the Party is in chaos and Brexit 'negotiations' are a joke. It is becoming increasingly clear that the EU are giving no concessions, they are sticking strictly to the plan as set out in the directives agreed by the 27 countries and published transparently. There is going to be a whopping penalty payment, ongoing costs and no access to customs union or the single market. May's Hard Brexit will be even worse than forecast and even that isn't certain. Add the small black clouds on the economic horizon and the fact that May is powerless and what have they or any one else to be optimistic about?
As for your point about Labour being in chaos, have a look at the facts Tiz. They have a collective view which has settled down now as the rebels realise that Corbyn is rock solid. In fact they are the only party with a stated viable manifesto and a stable leadership. Compare with the Tories, no leader, no manifesto and an evidently divided Cabinet.
Today's Cabinet Meeting isn't going to be about substantive matters but internal party discipline. May has only one sanction left open to her, to resign and that will make things even worse. The outcome will be a fudge driven by self-interest that enables them to cling onto power, they fear an election.
Personally I don't think they can get away with it. The structure is so rotten it is going to give way.
I was listening to senior Tories saying openly on R4 that this is far worse than what happened in Major's government after Thatcher.

[Pluggy]

I used to think Labour was in disarray. Nothing to what the Tories have got themselves into. Two leaders gambled and two leader lost.......

The deal with the DUP was a big mistake, Them and the blonde oaf on America's throne would make good bedfellows......

[plaques]

Te Labour party have always had friction between the left and right wingers. This has been going on right from Nye Bevan's days until the present time. Historically the 'Left' have always given way to the 'Right' so much so that Tony Blair almost moved it into a centralist Conservative Party. Jeremy Corbyn has pulled back a bit of ground but there are still plenty of 'rightwingers' in the Parliamentary Labour Party who will cause mischief at the first opportunity.
By contrast the Tory Party have always presented a united front that is until now. In fact in this last General Election they still tried to present an image of solidarity even though it was starting to crumble at the edges. Mrs May's 'Strong and Stable' was to be the bed rock of her campaign. Unfortunately, by going for a hard Brexit and potentially throwing the ordinary worker to the wolves plus threatening more and more austerity and benefit cuts she came unstuck big style. "I've got myself into this mess and I'll get us out of it" then with unbelievable chutzpah asked the other parties to help her out. Now we have her latest declaration. " Its either me or Corbyn". What a statement to make! Virtually declaring that no one else in the Tory party is fit to be Prime Minister only her. No wonder the Tories have descended into chaos. With the glorious 12th only weeks away this is one high flyer that's not going to survive too long.

[Stanley]

I agree P. Though desperate to avoid it she can't survive as PM and then what happens?
Meanwhile, as if things weren't bad enough, read THIS for an account of Peter Clarke's report on young offenders institutions. He reports none in England and Wales are safe and says a break down is inevitable. For years successive governments have starved the Prison Service of funds and privatised them where they could. The result is this and the wider prison service isn't much better. Don't forget that the same thing is happening in all the public services, underfunding and government shedding responsibility is eroding every aspect of society. Perhaps command and control and control of the commanding heights wasn't such a bad thing!

[Stanley]

Downing Street is keeping stum on everything! It says something about our system that in the middle of the most perilous political situation since 1939 Parliament has gone on holiday! Theresa scolded her troops and told them to go away, have a good rest and stop being disruptive! Fat chance.....
Meanwhile little whispers come through that they have realised that despite what was said in the glorious days when May told us she was going to be 'bloody difficult', we are going to lose the two EU agencies controlling medicines and financial regulation. Not a word has been said about this but it's an enormously complicated and difficult problem for the UK. Add Euratom and the myriad other problems arising and what do they do? Go on holiday! You couldn't make it up......

[plaques]

.... and what do they do? Go on holiday! You couldn't make it up......
You are being a bit hard on them here Stanley, They will be beavering away in the background wondering what to do next. What they really like is the fact that they away from the public eye with nobody questioning what they are up to. Democracy! what democracy! President May strikes again.

[Stanley]

I note the increase in crime and the immediate government response that they are 'investing £8.5billion' No addressing the fact that we have the lowest numbers of police since 1985 and that Chief Constables have consistently warned about the cuts going too far. Not even mentioned is the general erosion of society caused by our neglect of primary education, poverty due to austerity and falling wages. The deteriorating wage and conditions in the jobs market for the unskilled and the lack of incentives and opportunity for school-leavers. These crime figures are a very good indication that the pigeons are starting to come home to roost and these are long term effects. They can't be reversed by spin. Add the deterioration of the Prison Service and you have the possibility of a perfect storm. Eventually this erosion of society is going to be beyond any explanation by spin and it's going to be a long hard haul back to where we were before 2010.
Vince Cable as leader of the LibDems has one great asset, he is backing the right horse and as the true effects of Brexit become more obvious their support will increase.
Barnier blew the gaff on Davies and the UK approach to the Brexit talks by making it quite clear his exasperation at the UK's lack of a clear negotiating position. Ignore the spin, this is not going well. You have clear EU objectives on one side and UK obfuscation and scrabbling for advantage on the other. In short nothing is agreed as yet and as was said the other day, "I hear no whistling, only the ticking of the clock".

[Tizer]

Even the Daily Telegraph had its front page cartoon today with Davies et al leaving the talks and saying "There was give and take on both sides. We agreed to pay a divorce bill but I came away with Mr Barnier's pen."

[PanBiker]

I have just done my electoral registration online and then completed the electoral reform survey when asked. Interesting to note that the survey was asking for feedback on Saturday and Sunday voting and also compulsory voting and fining for non compliance.

[Stanley]

I used to tend to be in favour of a compulsory vote and a form of PR but having watched the result of a high turn out vote on EU membership I have my doubts!
Having watched and tried to interpret the political runes for so long I kid myself I have a feel for what's happening. If this is true it's bad news because I see no signs that we have a strategy for Brexit or even a consensus in the parties involved in the UK. I think they are just winging it and daren't tell us what 'progress' is being made. One thing is clear, the best result for the EU would be a U-turn and us staying in.

[Tripps]

Take note of this lady Kemi Badenoch Her maiden speech in the House of Commons has caused quite a stir on the internet, and I'm quite impressed too.

She represents Saffron Walden, and I've visited there many times over many years - lovely town. Some achievement just to get to be the candidate for this ultra safe Tory seat. Having heard this speech It's easy to see how she did it.

[plaques]

An ultra safe Tory Speech. My heroes... Blah.. Blah .. Blah. Conservative values... Blah .. Blah .. Blah. Sorry but not impressed.

[Stanley]

She's an attractive and intelligent black immigrant but she's young and is demonstrating it by supporting a Party that has proved since 2010 that it's not fit to run a toffee stall. I heard the original speech and thought at the time how naïve it was to tar all 'socialists' with the same brush. Who knows, when the light dawns she might consider tergivisating......
Meanwhile, in Trumpton..... Donald seems to be rebuilding his team in the White House ready for any adverse consequences from the investigations into his team and Russia. There is a suggestion that he's looking into his prerogative powers to pardon guilty parties. Not clear whether this extends to pardoning himself.... You couldn't make it up. This is a man who must be rapidly getting disillusioned about the powers of the Presidency!

[Stanley]

Economic forecasts are notoriously unreliable. See THIS BBC report on the latest IMF forecast for global growth which downgrades the UK from 2% to 1.7% due to poor first quarter performance. The US is also knocked back due, according to the report, Trump factors.
However, one thing that most commentators do agree on is that whilst individually unreliable, the forecasts can show trends and in the UK case all the indices that matter are flashing warnings and of course the effect of Brexit is still an unknown factor.
Question is, what evidence is there to oppose my view that we are heading for at least a recession and quite possibly worse. I know I am a bit of a Jeremiah but the evidence is mounting. There are going to be some very angry Leave campaigners out there shortly.....

[Stanley]

The blessed Theresa can't be too worried even though the house is burning down here at home, she's on holiday.....
Meanwhile we get a warning from the BofE about the inexorable rise of unsupported debt. Another brick in the wall.......

[Stanley]

We had a perfect example yesterday of a government non-policy, Gove's announcements about banning diesel and electric cars. First problem is that it's a typical 'kick the can down the road' ploy. 2040 is a long way away and meanwhile we suffer pollution in major conurbations. The solution to that is drop the responsibility on local councils who are already under-funded. Job done, affirmative action at no cost or trouble to government! The councils are already pointing out the worms in the can. They are lined up to be the bad guys. Time after time we see the problems when the government relinquishes responsibility for what should be central policy but they keep doing it.....
I see Trump is at it again. He has banned all persons of indeterminate gender from service in the armed forces. It strikes me that in the absence of any power to do anything in main stream politics he has picked one area where as Commander in Chief he can act with impunity.... Could this Presidency get any worse? (Unfortunately the answer to that is probably "You ain't seen nothing yet".) Problem is of course that the lowest common denominator amongst his supporters will think this is great!

[plaques]

We had a perfect example yesterday of a government non-policy, Gove's announcements about banning diesel and electric cars.

From the 'Mass observation Study' 1938 in Bolton. 'The Pub and the People', the authorities that determined the licencing laws, the TT Chief Constable, and his church ministers on the committee, decided that drunkenness was a big problem. Statistics showed that it was actually less than in other industrial towns but they felt that alcohol was bad for the workers and it should be more strictly controlled. Seeing that paid entertainment, pianos and singers, in pubs increased consumption of beer they made payment illegal. Since this measure made no difference to consumption they made singing illegal. This was far more effective but the problem was that people gave over coming into town for entertainment and even kept away at weekends when they would have made a full day of shopping and having a drink. Trade in the pubs collapsed as so did the shops and gradually the overall population of the town. Meanwhile the rate of drunkenness remained the same. It was noticed that the people who had made the rules had never been in a pub in their lives and had no idea what drove the basic economy.
So we have now come full circle. Standing traffic burning fossil fuels causes pollution but changing to electric cars will not solve the congestion problem neither will it help ordinary travel unless public transport is improved. Decisions made by people who don't live in the real world.