CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

[Stanley]

Tiz, I believe that your last paragraph is the key. Hopefully, economic reality will prevail eventually. Coal was useful in its day but the human cost in lives lost and injuries in the mines alone is enormous, then add deaths from air pollution. It may be that the latter plus the effects on climate will be the ultimate argument against fossil fuels.

[Tizer]

There's more today from Roger Harrabin:
`Trump emissions threat to US car industry' LINK
"The US car industry will be wrecked if President Trump relaxes emissions standards, California's governor says. Jerry Brown said China would dominate car manufacture because it was heavily promoting the electric vehicles that would dominate the future. He said huge investment was needed on electric vehicles, along with federal rules to encourage their purchase. He said President Trump and US car-makers were "half asleep" and hadn't understood the scale of the challenge. He told BBC Radio 4's Costing the Earth: "There will be a serious threat to the US auto industry. "The Chinese have taken over the world in wind turbine production, and photovoltaic. "They're going to take over the American car industry - and the people in Detroit are half asleep. They have to wake up - and I'm hoping they will. "China's investing billions in battery technology and electric cars - and introducing a regulatory regime that will produce for their market a percentage of electric cars that to my knowledge no American executive can even imagine."

[Stanley]

I see parallels between Trump's 'Make America Great Again' and the Brexiteers harking back to a laisser faire 19th century model of Empire and Britain ruling the world. Both deluded and completely out of touch with modern reality. Trouble is that we all will suffer on both counts.

[Tizer]

News this morning that `Global emissions of CO2 in 2017 are projected to rise for the first time in four years, dashing hopes that a peak might soon be reached. The main cause of the expected growth has been greater use of coal in China as its economy expanded." BBC

What caught my eye in this article was the sentence: `Another important factor in China has been lower water levels in rivers which have seen a drop in the amount of electricity made from hydro-power, with utilities turning to coal and gas to make up the shortfall.' These lower water levels are due to draught and what we are seeing is the increasing effect of a glacial melting hinted at many years ago by Professor James Lovelock. I mentioned on OG some time ago a concern that I had about the massive HE dams on Chinese rivers and how the collapse of such a dam could cause more deaths, injuries and disease than problems at a nuclear power station. I wrote how the big rivers arise in the Himalayas, fed by the gradual release of water from the many glaciers. What's happening now is the same as we will see from the Alps, but on a greater scale - the glaciers are receding and this will lead to droughts in summer and floods in winter. Normally the glaciers act as a buffer, freezing and holding back the heavy winter rains and snow, then releasing it through the warmer months. As the glaciers disappear the winter floods and summer draughts become more pronounced. This is already creating a feedback loop whereby the draught cuts down on HE energy supply and China therefore has to use more coal, which in turn leads to more CO2, higher temperatures and faster melting of the glaciers.

[Stanley]

"This is already creating a feedback loop whereby the draught cuts down on HE energy supply and China therefore has to use more coal, which in turn leads to more CO2, higher temperatures and faster melting of the glaciers." That was what struck me Tiz when I read the report. An example of how the Law of Unintended Consequences can catch us unawares. I have a suspicion that we will see many more examples of this, the release of methane from the oceans and permafrost springs to mind.

[Tizer]

Another example. Melting of snow fields and ice caps changes the albedo of the earth's surface, resulting in more of the sun's heat being absorbed rather than reflected. Positive feedback.

[Stanley]

"We're doomed I tell ye! All doomed!" Good job I am old but what about the Kids?

[Tizer]

I worry for the children but I'm disappointed that the younger generations of adults, especially students, haven't protested more about lack of movement on topics such as climate change, antibiotic resistance and skewed division of wealth.

[Stanley]

Tiz. Our modern system is full of cunning wheezes to keep the kids diverted away from the things that really matter. Main thing I reckon is that they are so busy with their electronic distractions and the media that they don't have to seek entertainment in books. Think what we learned when we were young and reading everything from sauce bottles to good non-fiction. This is why I always bemoan the lack of investment in Primary Education.

[Tripps]

"cette sauce de haute qualite "


Actually it's not so 'haute' now since they moved production from Birmingham to Holland .

[Stanley]

'est un melange de fruits et epice orientaux.....'
I hadn't noticed any difference David but then perhaps my taste buds are blunted by 70 years of strong tobacco.....
Isn't it wonderful how things like the HP label persist in the memory.....

[Tripps]

I think it's only odd people (like us ) who have the gift of remembering these things.

If you think it hasn't changed - treat yourself to a bottle of Stokes Brown Sauce. My guilty pleasure. It costs about 3 x HP, but it's the best. Note the magic ingredient - treacle.

[Tizer]

but then perhaps my taste buds are blunted by 70 years of strong tobacco.....

Or 70 years of brown sauce!

[Stanley]

And Lea and Perrins......

[Stanley]

See THIS report of the first cyclone in living memory on this part of the Indian Coast on the Arabian Sea. Then think about the wildfires in California. Then see the Australian forecast of possibly the worst bush fires in living memory.
Then ask yourself whether there could possibly be a connection between extreme events like these and global warming. I don't think it can be discounted out of hand.

[Tizer]

Latest global temperature figures:
Humans now 'dwarf natural climate effects' LINK
"Manmade climate change is now dwarfing the influence of natural trends on the climate, scientists say. Last year was the second or third hottest year on record - after 2016 and on a par with 2015, the data shows. But those two years were affected by El Niño - the natural phenomenon centred on the tropical Pacific Ocean which works to boost temperatures worldwide. What is remarkable about 2017 is that it was so warm without feeling the influence of an El Niño. The acting director of the UK Met Office, Prof Peter Stott, told BBC News: "It's extraordinary that temperatures in 2017 have been so high when there's no El Niño. In fact, we’ve been going into cooler La Niña conditions. "Last year was substantially warmer than 1998 which had a very big El Niño. "It shows clearly that the biggest natural influence on the climate is being dwarfed by human activities – predominantly CO₂ emissions."

[chinatyke]

Forecast is 25C today, lovely! A record breaking day. I keep saying this: "warmest winter I've known" so perhaps I am experiencing global warming. Normal average high temp for today is 14C and record high is 23C in 2010 with average low of 7C and record low of 0C in 1993.

There was a report somewhere yesterday that temps will not go as high as forecast by 2100. Do the scientists really know?

Tiz, being a pedant I can't resist:
Drought: a period of dry weather, especially a long one that is injurious to crops.
Draught: a current of air, especially one intruding into an enclosed space.

[Stanley]

When did he say that China? I can't find it.....
I heard that report as well Tiz and also the report from Capetown warning that they could be the first major city in the world to actually run out of water after a long period of drought.

[chinatyke]

When did he say that China? I can't find it.....

What caught my eye in this article was the sentence: `Another important factor in China has been lower water levels in rivers which have seen a drop in the amount of electricity made from hydro-power, with utilities turning to coal and gas to make up the shortfall.' These lower water levels are due to draught and what we are seeing is the increasing effect of a glacial melting hinted at many years ago by Professor James Lovelock. I mentioned on OG some time ago a concern that I had about the massive HE dams on Chinese rivers and how the collapse of such a dam could cause more deaths, injuries and disease than problems at a nuclear power station. I wrote how the big rivers arise in the Himalayas, fed by the gradual release of water from the many glaciers. What's happening now is the same as we will see from the Alps, but on a greater scale - the glaciers are receding and this will lead to droughts in summer and floods in winter. Normally the glaciers act as a buffer, freezing and holding back the heavy winter rains and snow, then releasing it through the warmer months. As the glaciers disappear the winter floods and summer draughts become more pronounced. This is already creating a feedback loop whereby the draught cuts down on HE energy supply and China therefore has to use more coal, which in turn leads to more CO2, higher temperatures and faster melting of the glaciers.

[Tizer]

Thanks for the correction, China. I can't get away with saying it was a typo when I spelt it wrong three times! Perhaps I've got so used to seeing the US spelling `draft' instead of draught that my brain now regards draught and drought as both being pronounced `drowt' and having the same meaning?

A survey has shown the levels of plastics pollution to be the same in Scapa Flow as in the Firth of Forth and the Clyde. The scientists think the currents around the Pentland Firth might be trapping the pollution in Scapa Flow. LINK

[Stanley]

Put it down to a defective keyboard.......
As I write this I am listening to News Extra on World Service, a good programme where an hour is devoted to one subject and a wide selection of experts is brought in. This morning they are discussing 'The Resurgence of Coal'. The US coal interests say that this is happening under Trump's dismantling of protective measures put in by the Obama Administration. Not good news......

[Stanley]

More and more men seem to be favouring shorts even in the depths of winter. Is this fashion or an indication that average temperatures are rising? Include me out!

[Tizer]

It's austerity, they can't afford long trousers.

[Stanley]

That's what I tell my mates who do it......

[Stanley]

See THIS for a timely report from CNN on the rising levels of the River Seine in Paris. One of these days we are going to have a flood in London, the Thames Barrier is having to be closed far more frequently as time passes. There is talk about what to do but talking won't cut it. Imagine the news headlines...... Climate Change? Naaaah.....