POLITICS CORNER

[Tizer]

On the Brexit/industry issue my attention was caught by the government minister who said that the company bosses are wrong. Since when have ministers known better than the business leaders how their companies will be affected by events? The effect on industry is one more reason why I still think the Brexit project will come crashing down at some point.

[PanBiker]

BMW Mini production uses the "Just in Time" manufacturing process which relies on strict timings and flawless component supplies to allow them to produce a finished Mini every 90 seconds or so. 80% of the components come from outside the UK and many are ricochet backwards and forwards to and from mainland Europe during their own manufacturing processes. You can only do this with no tariffs and effectively open borders. It's a no brainer once pointed out, no decent deal and they will decamp home to the other side of the channel. Same applies to Airbus, engineering manufacturing process can be set up anywhere that's convenient so why stay on a little island with potentially no connectivity?

[Stanley]

Exactly right both of you in my opinion. I listened to a bit of Question Time yesterday and heard people saying it was simply a political ploy.... The big industries like BMW and Airbus have to act now and they are not going to get any reassurance from the Brexiteers. I remember when an unexpected water main failure blocked the road to a Toyota factory working on JIT and everyone wondered why production had to stop within 24 hours. Politicians can move the goalposts, big complicated industries can't.....

[PanBiker]

East Coast main line taken back into public ownership from Virgin/Stagecoach. Will now become L.N.E.R (where have we heard that before). Tory DNA dictates that they will look for another cowboy or carpetbagger to run it by 2020. Fortunately it may nor be their call by 2020.

[Tizer]

I read an article about the workers and union at the Airbus factory being interviewed last week on the Brexit issue. The union and management had tried to convince workers before the Referendum that leaving the EU would be very bad for them, let alone for the whole UK, but they were split about 50/50 which reflects the national result. Some of the workers still insist they want to leave the EU and don't believe what the union and management tell them. It all sounds depressingly familiar - like the Cornish strongly voting Leave even though they are the UK region that gets the most help from EU funds.
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I keep harping on about the UK being a representative democracy (rather than a popular democracy) so naturally I was glad to see Bruff explaining the reasons that the former is better than the latter. There is another consequence of the decision to hold the EU referendum and its result, one that I haven't heard discussed. Making such an important decision by means of a referendum has set a precedent and we will see demands in the future for referendums on other topics. It's once you start thinking about those potential topics that you realise how great the danger is. For example, I can imagine a demand for referendums on bringing back hanging, abolishing road speed limits, privatising health care, banning trade unions, perhaps even on going to war. Make your own list. This is one of the reasons why I don't want a `second EU referendum' but wish that the government would get its act together, stop being frightened and over-turn the decision. The idea of a one-way trip to Mars is beginning to seem more attractive!

[plaques]

The referendum in itself was no more than a single question survey. Almost one year to the day, 23 June 2016. Most things of this nature are subject to 'seasonal adjustment' avoiding an excess of feel good factor or whatever happens at the summer solstice. Then there is the other fudge factor of Sigma distribution between hardliners must get out / stop in, and the maybe's and don't knows. All this points to the fact that such a close result should be for guidance only and left to Parliament to decide. Something that OG writers have been saying for 12 months.

[chinatyke]

The referendum in itself was no more than a single question survey. Almost one year to the day, 23 June 2016. Most things of this nature are subject to 'seasonal adjustment' avoiding an excess of feel good factor or whatever happens at the summer solstice. Then there is the other fudge factor of Sigma distribution between hardliners must get out / stop in, and the maybe's and don't knows. All this points to the fact that such a close result should be for guidance only and left to Parliament to decide. Something that OG writers have been saying for 12 months.

You do know it is 2018 now?

Wasn't it a referendum that decided that we joined in the first place?

[Tizer]

Wasn't it a referendum that decided that we joined in the first place?

The simple answer is `No'. The more complicated answer is that we were already in the EC, which we joined without a referendum. We'd been trying to join it for some time but De Gaulle kept us out. Once he'd gone we applied a third time and that was successful. The Treaty of accession was signed by Ted Heath in early 1972; Parliament's European Communities Act 1972 was enacted later that year and we became a member of the EC on 1 January 1973. In 1975 we had a referendum to decide whether or not the UK should stay in the EC. It was worded: "Do you think the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?". All UK administrative counties and regions returned majority "Yes" votes, except the Shetlands and Outer Hebrides. Turn-out was about 65% and the vote was 67.2% in favour of staying in the EC. Interestingly, in 1975 newspapers like The Sun, The Daily Mail and The Daily Express all campaigned to keep Britain in Europe. Every national newspaper backed a vote to stay in, except for The Spectator and The Morning Star. Big companies and major unions strongly supported staying in the EC. Vic Feather, the former general secretary of the TUC, told voters: “If we go it alone we will be knackered”.

[plaques]

China. That is what is known as a mathematical uncertainty, or to you Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. If you were dead and spending your first year working through eternity it would be one year. Since you are not dead it is two years. The probability variations get even more complex as time goes on. Having said all that it was a mistake on my part which I put down to some residual training left over from trying to be a MP.

[chinatyke]

Thanks T and P

[Stanley]

Lovely posts and rather boringly I agree with all of you. I would just add that in any analysis of the 2016 referendum it's an error to say x% of the voters. It was a percentage of those who voted and not everyone did.
I heard J Hunt appealing for support for T May and arguing that Airbus, BMW and Siemens are guilty of threatening behaviour. That's how you are described in politics today if you speak an unpalatable truth.
He is of course totally wrong, they are fulfilling their reporting duty as directors of a public company and issuing a forecast that will aid shareholder's knowledge and a full appreciation of trading conditions they think relevant to the conduct of the company. If they didn't do this they could be held to account later. Hunt simply doesn't understand the role of a responsible director.
Facing the prospect of being shut out of advantageous trading conditions in a competitive market is a significant threat to any company that trades with the EU. I wonder if Hunt has any idea how many other employers are facing the same problem but keeping stum?
I note that T May was not at the gathering of EU leaders discussing immigration. Was she shut out or simply not interested?

[Stanley]

Liam Fox has joined in the criticism of Airbus at al. If our International Trade minister doesn't understand the problem how can he do his job?
I can't find a reference on the web but I heard a Welsh MP criticising the ministers who are attacking Airbus. He says they should listen to them instead and take on board what they are saying.

[Tizer]

I think the Welsh name Stanley wants is Guto ap Owain Bebb: LINK

[Stanley]

That's the man Tiz. He talks more sense than our Brexit leaders. I particularly liked him linking the criticisms to millionaires jockeying for the party leadership......
See THIS for the first part of Trump's education on how tariffs work in the real world. Harley Davidson have said they are transferring some production abroad to escape the EU customs duty on their bikes.
Noted that Boris was conveniently absent in Afghanistan on urgent business which meant he didn't have to break the Tory 3 line whip. What a man.........

[Stanley]

A grumbling and fractious Westminster village mainly caused by Remain leaning Tories criticising their Brexiteer colleagues. Gove comes in for ridicule for his antipathy towards wood burning stoves and the critics of industry pointing out the reality of the situation get their share.
News slips out that the proposed new women's prisons have been dumped.
Meanwhile the clock ticks......

[plaques]

Harley Davidson have said they are transferring some production abroad to escape the EU customs duty on their bikes.

And when Airbus plus others suggest that they may have to pull out of the UK this is seen as unwarranted inappropriate interference in the negotiations. This is what happens in real life when profits are threatened. Meanwhile, Whose turn is it to kick the can down the road? Mustn't let them know we have a cunning plan.

[Tizer]

[Stanley]

The inevitable 'correction' as the markets like to call it has been on the cards for a while and I note that it figures more and more whenever economists are interviewed....
Still no need to worry if we believe luminaries like Hunt who assured us the other day that we have a "very strong economy" and Boris who says "F*** big business" in private (and by the way, when asked directly if he had said it refused to deny it....). The Imperial and Bulldog Spirit will kick in next March and we will sail forwards into a glorious future. Two choruses of Land of Hope and Glory.....
I heard an archive recording of Nye Bevan explaining the new NHS the other day and the rationale behind it, The point he was making was that the burden of dread of disease and the cost of getting treatment would be lifted from every family in the land. What a contrast with what our present politicians are doing, they are placing a burden of insecurity and debt on the people least able to afford it and calling it 'economy' and 'sound money'.
How can a 'representative democracy' get into a mess like this...... (Don't bother answering that.)
I said yesterday that Parliament was getting fractious, see THIS BBC report on yesterday's PMQs. Much heat and very little light. Perfectly valid questions not addressed but batted away with criticisms of everyone. This is a bear pit when what we need desperately is transparency and facts. Tin hats on Lads!

[Stanley]

Read THIS BBC report on the fact that T May goes to Brussels with a promise but nothing concrete. Question is will the EU ministers place any credence on a promise from a PM who is so obviously not strong enough to control her MPs. This not looking good and the crunch point gets nearer. The government position is based on expectations that the EU will accept her proposals, unfortunately this is far from certain. When she got the leadership I said that it could be a poisoned chalice........ I am not optimistic.
Meanwhile.... I have just been listening to Trump. The man is rabid......

[Tizer]

A commentator on the radio this morning was trying to find something positive to say about Trump. She had some interesting views but ended up with..."but he'll have to stop lying". It really says something about the state of the world today when the president of the USA is known by everyone to be a blatant liar.

When we hear about Boris and the US President in the last two years we've been thinking about Trump. I read something today that reminded me of how Boris had reacted when Obama was said to have returned the painting of Churchill that had been in the Oval Office. He said that Obama's attitude to Britain was due to his `ancestry'.

I've mentioned before about our neighbours having difficulty getting NHS treatment due to staff shortages. A lady today was telling us how her young child is going to have to wait a year before he can have treatment for a serious disability. It's shocking. At the same time we see for ourselves how lack of overseas staff is bringing the NHS to a halt. We live a mile from the main hospital here, the biggest between Bristol and Exeter. For decades many of the local houses with easy access to the hospital have been bought by or rented to people coming to work at the hospital. Now it's changed, there isn't the same demand for houses now since the Referendum.

[Stanley]

T May looked a bit lonely at that EU meeting yesterday. She started off by having her assurance on presenting a viable case relegated to a speech during dinner but then found out that dinner itself was going to be delayed because the EU have their own major problems on dealing with migrants. Tusk admonishes them in a letter prior to the meeting urging cooperation but last night this looked thin on the ground. THIS BBC report lays out the problem very clearly. (Breaking news is that after 9 hours of discussion a decision (fudge?) has been reached.)
Re. Boris and racism.... When the attacks on Corbyn and Labour accusing them of anti-Semitism were at their height I warned that people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. Racism is still rife in UK society at all levels and I doubt if the playing fields of Eton are more tolerant than elsewhere.

[Stanley]

I listened to T May explaining how well she is managing Brexit. I fear she may be kidding herself but nobody else. Certainly not Mr Barnier who put it quite bluntly, the UK is in the last chance saloon, we need to come up with a position that will satisfy the EU and at the moment the suspicion is that he doesn't think this is the case. He particularly mentioned Ireland.....
My best bet is that whatever fudge May comes up with in the White Paper after the away day at Chequers she will be on a sticky wicket. Worst case is that most of it will be rejected out of hand as the UK seems to have forgotten the red lines laid down by EU statute. Any variation of these will be streng verboten!

[PanBiker]

Back in the local forest it was Pendle Constituency Labour Party AGM last night. For my sins I was elected ICT Coordinator, a role that I pioneered in the early 90's when IT was just emerging and used as a political tool. No internet or email as such at that time and most systems were stand alone or rudimentary coaxial Ethernet based. The role is a dual one now and is warranted for the sheer range of software and systems available and in use by the party. I want to raise awareness of what is available and encourage more usage within the ward branches.

[Tizer]

According to the BBC's Laura Keunsberg the EU reps wanted another meeting, next Friday. T May said no. So Barnier waited until they were in front of journalists and repeated the demand. T May said yes. It shows why the EU people want to do everything in the open.

Yes, Ireland is a sticking point, but so is Gibraltar. And let's not forget all the other less obvious sticking points that are going to combine to make Brexit a dog's brexit breakfast!

[Tripps]

Might be tricky next Friday - from the Guardian -

An English country house, a polite but inscrutable host and an ill-assorted band of guests, each with a motive to stab each other in the back. Theresa May’s Brexit house party at Chequers next Friday sounds more like the set-up for an Agatha Christie mystery than a cabinet meeting.

But drumming up a sense of drama has become another tool in the prime minister’s battle to unite her scrapping ministers. So, a full two years on from the referendum, she will gather them for a day-long summit and a working dinner next Friday.

Maybe they should invite him for the full day?