POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

I don't see a direct parallel with the Millennium Bug. That was governed by the laws of physics.... Brexit is uncontrolled at the moment because nobody has any idea of what the deal is going to be. Consequently everyone has to work on Worst Case. A lot of money is being spent to counter unknown unknowns..... This in itself is causing damage already and even if we finish up with everything we want and a brown paper bag to take it away, damage has been done. Not least to trust and confidence.

[Tizer]

And there won't be any going back once we're out of the EU. We've let them down, Perfidious Albion once again, waving two fingers at them. Just when we should be building stronger relationships with our neighbours.

[Stanley]

Quite Tiz. And can you just imagine Raab with Barnier yesterday..... Did he really think an hour of conversation was going to break any log jams? I have an idea that the EU are settled on their version of the deal. Wenesday is going to be an interesting day!
Never forget how all this started........
Later news is that the negotiators in Brussels were reaching an agreement but T May wouldn't have it so she sent Raab to Brussels to kybosh the deal.... This seems to be correct. We are also told that the Raab/Barnier meeting was bad tempered.

[Stanley]

T May had a bad day yesterday, I haven't a lot of sympathy for her. As Richard forecast a long time ago, the EU is being blamed for obstructing our perfectly reasonable plans. It must be serious as the Wednesday EU meeting to dot 'i's and cross 't's has been cancelled and word is that the November meeting is being re-jigged from a formal acceptance of the UK deal to discussions about emergency EU arrangements if we crash out.
May indicates that she goes to Brussels on Wednesday to 'put our strong case' to the EU. It didn't go down well at Strasbourg..... Tin Hat Time?

[Tizer]

Philip Aldrick reports in The Times on the annual IMF meeting held in Bali. Little was said about Brexit except that the ministers from other countries don't regard it as very important. Instead all the talk was about trade agreements, the US and China - this causes them the most concern because they can see us all moving towards a crash. A couple of other points caught my interest, especially on the increasing domination by the US in its attempt to hold off China. First, the US, Canada and Mexico have signed a new trade agreement (the USCMA) to replace NAFTA. Under the USCMA Canada and Mexico have had to agree not to sign any trade agreements with China without US approval. Second, under USCMA Canada and Mexico must allow the US to have control of digital data (apparently because that's where the big tech companies are). Now, think what that means for the UK after Brexit when we go to the US to make a trade agreement.

[Tripps]

Maria Miller MP has just ' called for' Mr Speaker to quit. That's a bit rich isn't it?

Look at this-

Maria Miller

Maria Miller.jpg

By this stage in the resignation process - I'm usually saying 'he'll be gone by weekend'

I don't think it'll happen here.

[Stanley]

The revelation that the Commons is a hide-bound, antediluvian institution that encourages some Members to act like tin pot gods and abuse their staff came as a complete surprise to me...
Tiz, the bottom line is that there is a full blown state of war out there in the higher reaches of the financial system, everyone clawing advantage out of everyone else. A long way from mutually dependent barter arrangements in peasant societies where it all started. I think there is little doubt we are heading for another market crash and it could be closer than anyone thought.
From the announcement from Junker and Barnier that T May has been told she must present new proposals today I can only deduce that they are not going to move and she has two options, blow a fuse and refuse or come back with a 'deal' that will cause everyone else to blow a fuse. In other words SNAFU!!
What a bloody mess!

[plaques]

Members to act like tin pot gods

Its the old problem... 'There's nothing wrong with a system that put ME at the top.
Why do I get the feeling that Mrs May is on a hiding to nothing, The Brexiters are making the situation that bad that they hope she will resign and hand the Premiership to one of their members. The alternative is that they will arrange a vote of no confidence in which case its a general election. As most pundits now forecast will probably mean Jeremy Corbyn and a Labour government. A fate worse than death if the rightwing Tory papers are to be believed. Meanwhile the Country goes to the dogs which is OK as long as it doesn't affect the top 5%.

[Stanley]

In the absence of a miracle all we can do now is wait. One consequence of course is that time is too short now to do any of the work needed when we eventually know the size of the rabbit which looks like December. They all go off for Xmas then and it begins to look like a stay of execution for a while so at least another year of Brexit domination.

[Stanley]

I watched the news last night and my amateur conclusion is that when T May gets back and comes clean about the further concessions she has been forced to take by Brussels the Tory Party will implode and change leaders in mid stream. The change will be disastrous. The Opposition will explode and go for an election. We live in interesting and dangerous times......

[Tizer]

Indeed, and at a time when the world is already on the brink of more serious dangers. The economy in China is faltering and that's causing much alarm worldwide. Trump is willing to pile more pressure on them and make the situation even worse.

[Stanley]

Quite Tiz.
There would appear to be no political news this morning. The calm before the storm?

[Tizer]

We've must have hit the backstop! (Whatever it is... )

[Stanley]

I think the reason is perhaps that none of the buggers have any idea what to do next. Looking at the march in London yesterday, a 'U' turn might be a good idea! Left hand hard down!

[Stanley]

Nothing of any great note has come out of Downing Street overnight. May is desperately calling on her party members to hold back from attacking her saying that a deal is 95% done. The problem of course is the 5%! It includes Ireland. She says we are close to the finishing line but I get the feeling it has only been achieved by more and more concessions. No sign of the EU letting up on the pressure. We are nowhere near out of the wood yet.

[Tizer]

Left hand hard down!

How appropriate! It reminds me of the `Navy Lark' radio programme: `Left hand down a bit, Chief. Whoops...Bang!'

About a week ago I reported that at the annual IMF meeting held in Bali little was said about Brexit except that the ministers from other countries don't regard it as very important. Instead all the talk was about trade agreements, the US and China. A few days ago I wrote how the economy in China is faltering and that's causing much alarm worldwide. Now I see that another elephant in the room is Italy; the EU is more concerned about that than the UK. Yet the Brexiteers would have us believe that the 27 had us at the top of the list and were falling over themselves to make a good deal with us. Huh!

[plaques]

I'm always a bit suspicious when people especially politicians start quoting percentages (%).There's a world of difference between quantity and quality percentages. Mrs May obviously considers the 95% done and dusted but how many of the Conservative Party agree with her. Then we have the remaining 5% which is going to be the most contentious. Perhaps she should come clean and itemize the outstanding problems then the country at large could make up their own minds. "Don't panic" she says as she make towards the fire exit.

[Tizer]

The Times on Saturday had a long, detailed piece about how big UK companies are putting funds into US political parties. They are not allowed to do it directly but instead they channel the money through US subsidiaries and US executives. I think it was something like $30 million over the last ten years.

[Stanley]

P, no such thing as percentages here, that's just waffle, she either has a good deal or she hasn't and I think a lot of people have realised that the Empress has no clothes!
Tiz, I'm sure you're right about the EU and Italy, note that when the Italians confessed to breaking the accountancy rules they added that they weren't going to leave the EU under any circumstances! Do you think they've noted our problems? As for firms sending cash to the US, behind the scenes many decisions are being taken that would horrify everyone if they were known, they all saw the reaction to Jaguar Land Rover when they were transparent! You can't blame them, they have run out of time.

[Stanley]

I see that there is after all a 'money tree'. Phil has been informed by the NAO that there is £13billion down the back of the sofa. That's handy just before a budget! I smell a rat, this either indicates some very flexible financial thinking or that the original statistics and forecasts were terribly wrong, either way it is deeply suspect.
The National Audit Office have also produced THIS report reported by the BBC. They say that the necessary systems to manage our borders after Brexit are not in place and it is doubtful whether they will be ready in time.
I have noted of late that a Google search very seldom mentions BBC reports, it concentrates on the private news media. Cock-up or conspiracy?
Nothing direct coming out of the Westminster village, it's too quiet out there......
T May faces the 1922 committee this afternoon. That'll be a fun event.......

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report of what was evidently a heavily stage-managed meeting of the 1922 Committee. Whether this carries over into real life remains to be seen.

[Tizer]

Donald Trump will be claiming that the pipe bombs sent to Obama, the Clintons, CNN and others are a trick by the Democrats (the BBC reports that `Some of Mr Trump's supporters have said they believe the packages sent this week are part of a Democratic plot to win votes in the mid-term elections). He's already blaming it all on the news media. Yet last week Trump praised a Republican congressman who assaulted a journalist. The word hypocrisy comes to mind.

[Stanley]

I heard the Republican quite seriously proposing that scenario Tiz and was shouting at the radio!
In his efforts (successful) to appeal to the lowest common denominator in voters, Trump has debased the level of public discourse in America to a point where this sort of activity is more and more likely. One thing though, I heard an ex CIA operative say that the fact these devices are intact is a forensic goldmine for the authorities. This may lead to identification of the perpetrators.
In the Westminster Village the rule at the moment is keep stum! No political news.
One observation..... The Tories have painted themselves into a corner. There isn't time now for any revolt against the leadership, all they can do is sit back and watch the tragedy play out. The only slim hope is the promised debate in Parliament but the most likely outcome of any revolt there is going to be that we crash out and go over the cliff. For that reason the Tories will stand firm against the opposition. The only certain outcome I see long term is that there is every likelihood this will condemn the Tories to at least 30 years in the wilderness.

[Tizer]

`DWP's 'fortress mentality' fails benefit claimants, say MPs' LINK

[Stanley]

I've been following that story and I thought the minister's performance on TV 'explaining' how all was fine was a disgrace and a perfect illustration of the problem.
No Brexit news, the budget is being used as a diversion. That too is a disgrace.....
In America there seems little doubt that because of the 'forensic bonanza' of the intact bombs, the perpetrator has been found an arrested. It transpires that he is a rabid supporter of Trump who has been in trouble before. The papers drew the quite natural conclusion that his behaviour had been exacerbated by Trump's extreme rhetoric and the consequent widely recognised coarsening of the political and social scene. Trump of course has never mentioned this and now switches his attack on to the papers accusing them of using the arrest to generate 'false news' and 'score cheap political points'. The bottom line is that you reap what you sow and Trump is getting some hard truths about the consequences of his actions. What effect this will have on him remains to be seen. The man appears to me to live in a fantasy world where he is always right and any legitimate criticism is a conspiracy against him. This is Alice in Wonderland and no matter what he does will eventually destroy him.