POLITICS CORNER

[plaques]

Since the Brexit trouble started we've heard more useful contributions from the members of the previous Labour government

Are these the same people that led to a landslide victory to the Tories? Even some of the Labour MPs that are left would vote in the Conservative lobby if it meant Johnson losing power. A lot of the so called Labour MPs offer forward solutions to Brexit that would leave the Conservatives where they are. eg: Corbyn's suggestion. First a general election and then another referendum. Their solution, first another referendum. period. ie: They are quite happy with a Conservative government whether we are in the EU or not.
The problem with listening to verbal broadcasts is that the rhetoric and phrasing takes over from logic. You can never decide whether the slight pause in the speech was a comma, full stop. or a new paragraph. The final meaning can depend on such subtleties.

[plaques]

Ms Patel has said that reports of her being in favour of the return of capital punishment were 'taken out of context'. Her recent comments haven't reassured me.

. Always worth a read. The Ballad of Reading Goal. (Oscar Wilde). Normally you only see the first ten verses. Here is the complete Ballad. A rather long read I'm afraid. Ballad.

[PanBiker]

I was listening to the latest proposal regarding the use of mobile phones while driving. The government want to ban all use of mobiles in motor vehicles even if they are integrated into the cars audio system via bluetooth and are completely hands free. This would also apply to other hands free systems. How is this different to the existing in car audio systems. They say that receiving or making a call even when using VOX and auto answer is too distracting? How is this any different to using the existing car radio, CD or sat nav systems, are they to ban these as well? How on earth do they expect this to be policed, they have enough on their hands stopping all the existing users without hands free. The penalty has been increased to 6 points and a £200 fine. To press home the stupidity of using a hand held phone while driving as opposed to a hands free, I would raise the penalty to a punitive fine of £500 and an instant ban. That would focus the mind somewhat. Far better than trying to police and ban all responsible use.

[Tripps]

It's August - the silly season for press stories. It will keep the ever increasing number of radio station phone in shows going for a couple of days, then subside. Quite unenforceable too, especially if you have a passenger to blame.

[PanBiker]

Can't possibly talk to your passengers, too distracting by far.

[Stanley]

Tiz, I agree with the point you made but I wasn't talking about Labour, I was commenting on the Tories. Labour have actually got some rather good policies and aims, so good in fact that as usual the Tories are stealing them now.
One thing that nobody is mentioning is that deep down, a No Deal would suit Labour in some ways. It would lead to economic melt-down and almost certain defeat of the Tories in an election and further, it would enable them to get on with their policies without interference from the EU. One of these in particular, taking back some of the Commanding Heights into government control. The other thing which isn't being mentioned is the question of ring fencing the NHS in any trade deals.
See THIS BBC report on Philip Hammond's Times article criticising the Johnson administration for their handling of Brexit. This has started a battle of words with No. 10. This one could run and run...
Much crowing in the right wing media about the rise in wages relative to the RPI. This is an illusion. The rise in the RPI of essential goods is higher than the official figure and this is what the lowest paid feel. In addition wages have still not caught up with pre 2008 levels and then we have to take into effect the cumulative total of the losses since 2008 and its affect on debt levels. And then there is my old beef, how many of the jobs pay a living wage? A really convincing report would be that food banks are not being used as much, particularly by families in work.

[Stanley]

News this morning that Corbyn proposes a coalition to vote the government out and set up a time limited care-keeper government under his leadership. This would have more chance of success without him as leader because for a variety of factors he is not electable at the moment.
Remember Harold and events? See THIS BBC report of unease in global markets which are all falling. The main reason seems to be a change in the bond market where it is now cheaper to borrow money for a long term as opposed to short term bonds. I don't understand this fully but what's important is that the last time it happened was in 2007 and it is seen as a precursor to trouble.
If it is that serious, great timing as far as we are concerned. And you thought things couldn't get worse....
The internecine battle inside the Tory party has started. Phil Hammond is reinforced by other grandees and Johnson responds in Trump style by tweeting that they are traitors and working with the EU. This is going to get even nastier and it looks as though the fabled 'Boris Bounce' might be coming to an end.

[plaques]

Remember Harold and events?

A slight variation to Harold's 'events' was an early quote by john Maynard Keynes about another prominent MP.
" the trouble is he only considers the pieces on the chess board at that time." Chess having no rational solution whether or not.

Johnson responds in Trump style by tweeting that they are traitors and working with the EU.

He didn't quite say traitors but said certain MPs were collaborating with the EU to prevent a Brexit. Of course the implication is that the EU is the enemy and the MPs are members of a fifth column ready to work against the government. His Baldrickan cunning plan is not to negotiate until a 'no deal' becomes inevitable then its their fault if we crash out. What sort of convoluted thinking is this? This is not the time to have a prime minister who is prepared to trash the economy to appease a minority of rightwing nationalists.

Corbyn proposes a coalition to vote the government out and set up a time limited care-keeper government under his leadership. This would have more chance of success without him as leader because for a variety of factors he is not electable at the moment.

Too true. We are still in an era of tribal politics where image comes before substance. Meanwhile the Trumpian vultures are hovering waiting for the UK to commit suicide before swooping down to dine on the rich pickings.
The whole business is becoming more pathetic by the day.

[Stanley]

"The whole business is becoming more pathetic by the day."
And as we go forward with Johnson playing the May game of running the clock down, that will become by the hour. Just think of all the time that has been wasted....
On another aspect of Brexit, I wonder if the UK has any credibility left? What will this eventually do to the much vaunted ability to 'punch above our weight'. Is anyone thinking of how long we can possibly retain our seat on the UN Security Council? What happens when we eventually slip into the role of a relatively insignificant small country on the world stage?

[Tizer]

News this morning that Corbyn proposes a coalition to vote the government out and set up a time limited care-keeper government under his leadership. This would have more chance of success without him as leader because for a variety of factors he is not electable at the moment.

The `variety of factors' includes the small matter of the leaders of the other parties turning down his offer of a coalition. Nor was it helped by him not appearing on the Today programme this morning to promote his idea but leaving it to Rebecca Long-Bailey instead. It gives the impression that he's not really serious about the proposal. (I suppose he might be having a day off to celebrate Keir Hardie's birthday.)

[PanBiker]

Just think of all the time that has been wasted....

The second that the decision was made to convert an advisory referendum result into a mandate to leave, we should have had a coalition. Failing that all MP's should have been recalled to parliament and all leave and recess periods of the house suspended until they produced a solution, effectively the equivalent of locking them in. I would have given them Christmas Day off but no more, that might have focused the minds a bit more.

[Tripps]

to convert an advisory referendum result into a mandate to leave,

Thee was little reference to the process being advisory until the 'wrong' side won.

Let's see if this link works?

Read my lips

PS - Don't you just love Peter Mandelson speaking with "conviction and sincerity".

[Stanley]

David, my crap detector starts whining every time I hear any politician speaking with 'conviction and sincerity'. The thing that strikes me is that every one of the clips in the link was spoken by a politician who didn't fully understand all the complications and ramifications of what they were advocating. The same applies to the voters who voted for leaving. I didn't know the all the drawbacks but knew one good reason for remaining that overrides everything else, we need to cooperate to survive. We all learned that while in our prams, it didn't pay to chuck the toys out. In effect that's what we have done.
I am well aware of my shortcomings, I am not omniscient so I always consider the iron rule of Unintended Consequences. We think we have heard and understood the drawbacks but I fear we are going to learn of others which even we haven't foreseen. Think back to Robert Oppenheimer when he first witnessed the power of the atomic reaction. “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds”. Then think of Mark Twain; "Soap and education are not as sudden as a massacre, but they are more deadly in the long run". Both men were commenting on unintended consequences. It may be that we are about to enter another phase of our collective educations.

[Tizer]

We watched the TV programme where Michael Portillo interviews politicians to discuss `The Trouble with the Tories', following through the various events that have led us to were we are now. It's useful to have it all laid out in one programme. LINK

[Tripps]

The thing that strikes me is that every one of the clips in the link was spoken by a politician who didn't fully understand all the complications and ramifications of what they were advocating.

Looking back - I don't think anyone fully understood the full consequences. So much for a First Class degree in Politics Philosophy and Economics. I think many, especially David Cameron, should be handing his back in.

I think the common factor was an underestimation of the intelligence of the electorate, a bit like when Harold Wilson - said to be the cleverest man of his generation at Oxford - patronised us all with his 'pound in your pocket ' explanation following devaluation.

I think every voter had a different take on the consequences, for them, of the vote.
The next three months will be 'interesting' - as in 'may you live in interesting times'.

[Tizer]

I think the common factor was an underestimation of the intelligence of the electorate...

Journalists always used to be taught to never under-estimate the intelligence of your readers but never over-estimate their knowledge. As we can tell from what's emerged in the last 3 years, the electorate didn't have the knowledge of how the UK-EU relationship worked or of the likely consequences of us leaving the EU.

[Stanley]

I couldn't agree more David with all you say. One of my iron rules which has never let me down is to always plan assuming worst case, anything other than that is a gamble and the last thing a politician should be gambling with is the lives of his constituents. Every one of my posts has Jimmy Reid's aphorism, 'Beware of certitude'. Unfortunately the idiots who assured us of a peaceful sail on calm seas into a golden sunset didn't apply this. We were all sold a false bill of goods and yet they still say that it is a democratic choice that can't be ignored because to do so would smash all trust in politics. Surely they have done that already!
Why oh why did Jeremy Corbyn suggest himself as leader of a temporary coalition instead of saying the obvious, that the leader could be decided as part of the initiative. The idea is good and could work but he spoiled it. Perfect example of political ineptitude I reckon. After all who leads it is of no consequence as it would be followed by a general election. If it was obvious to us as soon as it was announced why didn't the 'experts' foresee the problem?

[Stanley]

I don't understand what is going on. Corbyn continues to insist that he should lead any temporary coalition even though it is clear that this is a non-starter and the only Labour voices we hear support this. Looks orchestrated to me. I can't help having a suspicion that No Deal is accepted now and is seen to have advantages in that any benefits can be taken advantage of and any bad consequences can be used to attack the Tories and force them out of government. In Labour's case the advantage is taking control of the commanding heights and for the SNP it opens the door to independence. Nothing else seems to fit.

[plaques]

I don't understand what is going on. Corbyn continues to insist that he should lead any temporary coalition even though it is clear that this is a non-starter and the only Labour voices we hear support this.

I would have thought it was pretty obvious why he insists on following electoral protocol. Any suggestion that he would be prepared to serve under anyone else would be telling the world 'I don't really want to be prime minister'. His position as leader and the credibility of the Labour party would collapse completely. Rather than concentrate on Corbyn we should be looking at the motives and posturing of the other players. The leading dissenting Tories would do anything to stop the no deal, anything that is but vote against their own party and trigger a general election. The Lib-Dems are playing games by suggesting anybody but Corbyn but are leaning strongly to the Tories. Again they say they want a second referendum but all the indicators are that they will revert to type and support Johnson with the possibility of becoming partners in another coalition government.
Unfortunately it looks like Johnson will survive a vote of no confidence and Trump will move into No 11 Downing Street and buy up all our remaining socialist assets.

[PanBiker]

Why oh why did Jeremy Corbyn suggest himself as leader of a temporary coalition

Because he is the leader of the largest opposition party, simple democratic protocol. Liberals are simply mischief making as they have no chance of having any influence unless propped up by some other party and they would sell their soul to have that chance again. Tories of course will say and do anything regardless of consequence for the country to keep a socialist and common sense principles and policies out of Downing Street. This clearly demonstrated by the successful division of the electorate that can be bothered and the wrecking of the political system and the very fabric of the nation.

[Tripps]

I would have thought it was pretty obvious why he insists on following electoral protocol

I think I heard someone - it may have been Ken Clarke - say this version of 'protocol' was simply not the case. I can't readily find anything to support that, but this extract from a letter from the LibDem leader Jo Swinson perhaps says as much?

If the motion [of no confidence] is successful and a new Prime Minister is sought, our constitution operates on the principle that that person must command majority support of the House of Commons. Based on on-the-record statements that have already been made, at least seven MPs on the opposition benches have indicated they would not give you confidence in these circumstances.

That could be ambiguous but it doesn't say the person must be the leader of the opposition.
Where's Norman St John Stevas when you need him? Reaches for Erskine May.
I fear we're in for a lot more of this sort of stuff.

[Tizer]

Protocol? That was chucked out of the window three years ago when Parliament turned a blind eye to representative democracy. Now, anything goes. Or rather anything goes if Bercow allows it.

[Stanley]

Lunchtime news is dominated by two things. Denials and counter denials on the leak of Cabinet papers on Brexit and some worrying signs coming in from the main financial centres that we may be getting very close to the end of the Bear Market. Add the two together and it's very worrying.

[plaques]

The leaked papers entitled 'Yellow Hammer' are offered up as a mid position assessment of the affect of a 'no deal' Brexit. Link. Gove defends their position by saying these are old worse case studies carried out by Mrs May's government which after their (Johnson's) foresight of throwing £2bn at the problem will only be half the disaster that it would have been otherwise. Actually he didn't say that but equally he didn't make any comment on how good/bad he expected it to be only dismissing it as 'project fear'. The truth is that all the major stakeholders who benefit from a free flowing economy are getting very worried about the lack of information that is being handed down. And with some justification its producing statements of “have wartime implications," and being in limbo.
Makes you proud to be British.

[Stanley]

I haven't looked at any of the political news this morning but I have this gem for you. Mail from my friend Martha (Who is a very smart cookie...)
"I’m not saying there wasn’t a democratic mandate for Brexit at the time. I’m just saying if I narrowly decided to order fish at a restaurant that was known for chicken, but said it was happy to offer fish, and so far I’ve been waiting three hours , and two chefs who promised to cook the fish quit, and the third one is promising to deliver the fish in the next five minutes whether it is cooked or not, or indeed still alive, and all the waiting staff have spent the last few hours arguing amongst themselves about whether I wanted battered cod, grilled salmon, jellied eels or dolphin kebabs, and if large parts of the restaurant appeared to be on fire but no one was paying any attention…"