BEWARE! THE BANKS ARE OUT TO GET YOU!

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report on stock markets in UK and US yesterday. Basically the slide continues.
"Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said the shock to global growth will produce "a recession at least as bad as during the global financial crisis or worse"."
It's going to be a long haul to recovery, I shall not see the end of it!

[Big Kev]

Not out to get you this time, hopefully alleviating the need to handle cash. From April 1st 2020 the contactless payment limit is being raised to £45 per transaction. Perhaps people will start taking more care of their bank cards now, FB land regularly displays cards that people have lost.

Guardian article https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/ ... g-of-april

[Tizer]

But if you're using a credit card you can pay that or greater safely on the machine as long as you press the buttons with, say, a key instead of a bare finger (or wear thin gloves) and don't let anyone handle your card. Not that I'm against contactless electronic magic, of course!

[Stanley]

Never thought of that as a point of contact Tiz, point taken!
I saw the news yesterday about the sudden rise in the stock markets and it worries me. What it signals to me is that the markets are febrile. Remember the warning, stocks can go down as well as up. If a 9% rise is 'normal' how steep could a fall be?

[Tizer]

The deal is done - at last...
`Coronavirus: Asia markets rise after US stimulus package agreed' LINK
`President Donald Trump and the US Senate have agreed an economic relief package worth more than $1.8 trillion (£1.5tn), sending Asian shares higher. Markets had rocketed on Wall Street and in London on Tuesday in anticipation of a deal being struck. On Wednesday, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index was up 7.9% following news of the relief deal. The stimulus package includes money to bail out industries that have been affected by the crisis..'..

[Stanley]

But they still haven't made up for the fall and it looks to me like the classic dead cat bounce. Numerous commentators who watch the markets are saying that one of the characteristics of a Bear market following a Bull is instability.....
Have a look at THIS short CNBC article on the prospects in the markets. They sound like a knowledgeable bunch of experts. However, I am aware that it is in their interests to take an optimistic view. We have to take all 'news' with a pinch of salt.
What strikes me here is that I am not hearing any good news about the banks supporting traders. I refer you to the lady who was offered a rate of 18.9% on a loan and numerous reports of banks refusing to give decisions because they are not clear how government support is going to work.

[Stanley]

I've related this elsewhere but I heard a small trader telling how his bank ignored the government assisted loans and offered him £25,000 at over 22% annual interest. Credit card rates! No such thing as a friendly bank but I think we knew that.

[Big Kev]

It's not just banks who are 'profiteering'. Reports from Facebook that the Goldren Dragon Chinese, on Frank Street, has put up its delivery prices from £1.30 to £5.30. I can't see them lasting long if this is the case...

[Stanley]

Desperate trading Kev. Unfortunately stress like the present situation brings out the best and the worst and that's the worst. I hope it backfires on them but you never know, there's one born every minute!

[plaques]

Not fully up to speed on this one but banks/mortgages requiring a 40% deposit on house purchases. That's if you can get one. Also agreed house sales have to be completed on the date agreed even if due to the coronavirus restrictions you can't move in or out. The onus is on individual to make their own arrangements??

[Tizer]

`Buying and Selling Homes during this stay-at-home period' Gov.uk

[Stanley]

All I can say is thank God I am not in the middle of a house move!
I wonder if the lawyers will put in the extra time and work gratis...?

[Tizer]

I've just seen a pig fly past my window!

[Stanley]

Quite......
A question I heard raised this morning and one I totally agree with. Should any bank or firm that is claiming or receiving subsidy be paying out dividends? In particular, banks should be using all spare cash to loan to customers who are on the brink of failure.

[Tizer]

They shouldn't but that's what they've been doing. On the other hand, some people depend on dividends for their pension.

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC account of the collapse of Brighthouse.
"The company had been struggling after an influx of compensation claims for selling to people who could not repay. Its shops were then shut owing to coronavirus restrictions on retailers."

[Tizer]

It shouldn't have been allowed to trade in the first place, in my opinion! It was obvious from the start, but as SCG would say, what do I know?
Carluccio's has gone belly up too.. LINK

We had a chat with one of our neighbours today (across the street, as one does) and she told us her husband is still very busy. He runs an insolvency agency and is run off his feet advising people at the moment, which is not surprising in view of the economic collapse. She is busy too - with four children and one of them having chickenpox!

[Stanley]

Poor woman!
Yes Tiz, and we have only just started the lock-down. It will get progressively worse as time goes on. I have little faith in the government's 'assistance' in guaranteeing loans. For one thing we hear too many reports of banks not offering them but quoting credit card rates of over 20% interest. Second, what's the point of taking a loan to help you stumble through the next six months with no guarantee of trade ever recovering when you could wind up the business and possibly even get some pay back by doing it now.
What do you reckon GDP is now? 'Growth' is going to be a redundant word for months (apart from insolvency consultants, accountants and lawyers.) I reckon that shortly we'll be hearing that lots of monthly indices have been suspended for the duration, including inflation figures!

[Tizer]

We'll be experiencing what the financial world likes to call a `correction', a weasel word.

[Stanley]

I think you are right Tiz. Instead of admitting that most of the consequences of Covid19 are due to a failure of the 'market' the market failure will be explained by blaming it on the virus. Even when the WHO gave a direct warning in September last year we totally disregarded it. Ask yourself why we are short of staff, beds and equipment, was that due to Covid19? Or was it the market telling us that we needed austerity but not at the top, aim it at the poorest and trebles all round?
Is there any chance at all that this virus might trigger change?
Later. It is becoming obvious that Sunak's 'emergency loans' aren't working. For one thing it is now clear that before applying for these emergency loans businesses have to exhaust all the usual commercial loans against assets or property. As these routes are largely closed because of the virus this means that no help is available and it is estimated that as many as 800,000 businesses are in imminent danger of failing.
As I said at the time, handsome is as handsome does and the great bail out is not quite what it seemed. Why am I not surprised?

[Tizer]

`BoE dividend pressure reignites HSBC domicile debate' FT LINK
`The Bank of England’s pressure on HSBC to cancel its dividend for the first time in 74 years has reignited a debate at the top of the bank over whether it should redomicile to Hong Kong. Several people familiar with the matter said the BoE’s intervention had prompted anger among some board members and executives, with calls to reopen the question of whether the group’s legal base should move from London. HSBC was one of five UK-based lenders that agreed on Tuesday night to withhold 2019 dividends, bowing to pressure from the BoE’s Prudential Regulation Authority, the UK’s top financial supervisor. The move is particularly damaging for HSBC, which generates more than four-fifths of its profits from Asia, despite being headquartered in London. A third of its shares are owned by retail investors in Hong Kong, who count on the dividend as part of their income. “For the regulators at the Bank of England to put a gun to the head of the board of directors is terrible,” said one director. “This should be a decision for the board to take. We should not be in the UK. The calls for redomiciling will increase.”..'.

[Stanley]

I saw that report as well Tiz and I have to say that moving the HQ to HK makes a lot of sense.

[plaques]

Banks and the stock market are just another form of gambling but I never thought that we would be running a virtual Grand National horse race. Grand National. Complete with a list of runners and riders a computer simulation to find the winner. If there's money involved I can tell you now who the winner is.. The bookmaker.

[Stanley]

I watched it P and it was very convincing. Of course the bookies didn't make anything out of me. I will go to my grave in front of the bookies, not many can say that! (Mind you, I did do the Pools all those years....)

[Stanley]

I listened to the Money Programme yesterday, full of heartbreaking cases of people who have fallen through the gaps in the government safety net. The economic and social damage caused by this virus is going to far outweigh the direct results of the infection.
I don't think anyone can forecast accurately how the world is going to change as a result, but change it will!