POLITICS CORNER

[Tripps]

In a similar way to people who slow down at a crash on the opposite carriageway on the motorway, I started looking at Trump's Twitter feed today. I'd seen quotes from it, but never actually viewed it.

Unbelievable - I get constant mental images - switching between Mussolini and Kim Jong Un. The guy is seriously deranged. On reflection perhaps so is the rest of the USA for tolerating and voting for him.

I noted that the Doctor who led the team and did the unconvincing news announcements outside the Hospital was in fact primarily qualified as an osteopath. I guess the fact that he resembled George Clooney didn't harm his chances of getting the gig.

You don't need to be descended from Mother Shipton to predict that I think we'll have a few interesting days ahead. I think the Pres needs to go back to Walter Reed, and get that chronic low self esteem problem that he suffers from has looked at.

PS - later that same evening. . .

We're saved What a guy.

[Stanley]

David. When he says 'you are going to get the drugs free' is he including the millions who will lose primary care if the Bill destroying Obamacare is passed?
The Big Lie is alive and well. Our man is using it as well...
I watched some of the debate, Kamala Harris is impressive.

[Stanley]

Par for the course? What are the odds we are looking at a May-style 'hostile environment'? I note there was no mention of Windrush.

I note that Dr Liam Fox can forget going to World Trade. Good.
I also note that the Port of Felixstowe is getting flak because of poor performance (down to 70-80%) by their administrative systems that handle containers. The owners Hutchinson, an off shore company, must be desperate. They have appointed Chris Grayling as an adviser.

[plaques]

Well at least we've sorted the massive queues of lorries waiting to cross the channel after Brexit. We are building multiple lorry parks to make the queues shorter. A case of lateral thinking.
Today I may find that I have my circuit breaker pulled. I always thought the Vatican was against this sort of thing?

[Stanley]

That last sentence went over my head Ken. I think I understand the origin of 'circuit breaker' but can't see the Vatican connection.
There appears to be a whiff of panic in the Kremlin (sorry, Number Ten) as schedules are altered multiple times by the latest Covid figures coming in. For one thing the conference call with rebellious Red Wall Great and Good has been postponed twice. They are seeking the least damaging strategy but can't find any light in the gloom.
They could always tell the bald truth, we are in deep shit and there is no easy way out.
Ken is right to focus on transport at borders, all the evidence coming in is that we are totally unprepared for worst case and due to the nature of the impasse with the EU over Brexit nobody knows how bad that worst case is.
Cue shortages and panic buying?

[plaques]

For some reason which I have still to fathom out why I was passed a sheave of Parliamentary papers on what would be require of the UK in preparation of the withdrawal agreement. Basically saying that prior to the Article 50 being declared all the stakeholders should be consulted to assess their requirement to safeguard their businesses. In the rush to 'get Brexit done' I doubt whether this was done in any comprehensive manner. Then it was pointed out that nobody had tried to complete a trade deal while still being a member of the union. All the deals so far had been with countries outside the union. The general view being that the level of complexity after article 50 would require at lease two years to sort out and that the UK should ask for an extension before leaving completely. All this was ignored and the UK brinkmanship negotiation style was adopted to see who would blink first with a winner takes all attitude. Clearly this is not going to happen and although dead lines and time tables can be fudged a full agreement is unlikely to be completed in the few remaining months. Once we are out of the EU the sharks will begin to circle making demands and conditions on UK trade that we would never have condoned in the past. Incompetence on an industrial scale in more sense than one.

[Stanley]

I can't see anything to argue against there Ken. A good summation of where we are at and how we got there.
I may be too cynical but I can't help noting that the most fervent advocates of Brexit are on the whole people who are well-heeled enough to be able to withstand the shock. The rest of them seem to me to be people who haven't been given enough education to be able to rationally assess the consequences. What strikes me is that it is this populist rump baying for individual rights and sovereignty that is so influential in the US as well. We were privileged members of the biggest trading and political bloc in the world and have wrapped ourselves in the flag and rejected what was a workable situation where we had a powerful voice. All right, there were many problems but these were nothing to what we face now. I really do think we are in for a massive shock at the end of the year.
Meanwhile what have we got, sub-Churchillian bluster and chaotic management. The best example of how ineffective this is is the rising tide of dissent coming out of the Northern 'Red Wall' constituencies. This is not going to end well.

[Tizer]

PE and the Syrian refugees...Radio 4's More or Less fact-checked Patel's claim with the same result. It turned out she'd cherry-picked a particular type of refugee which allowed her to make the claim.

We listened to a radio piece on Mike Pence this morning and found it illuminating. Trump makes out that he's very religious and supporting the religious right, all while he's bullying, being racist and touching up any woman who goes near him; Pence is seriously, genuinely `got God' religious and everything that goes with it. Apparently there are ultra-right groups (think QAnon etc) who believe that Trump has been sent by God to save us and Pence is sent to keep him focused on the job. Fortunately Americans are shifting towards Joe Biden. Below is a BBC graphic showing the important `battleground states' (the ones that decide the election via the electoral college) as of yesterday. I know the polls can be wrong but remember that it was a close run thing in 2016 and Clinton actually got millions more votes than Trump... (Graphic from here: BBC)

[Stanley]

That Graphic on swing states looks credible to me. Love the fact that Minnesota stays rock solid! It always struck me as a sensible state.
What interests me today is whether the weasel words used in the debate on MPs participation in debate on Covid measures when they said that it would only kick in on national matters is going to hold water today when Johnson issues what will be his latest diktat formulated 'with consultation'. From the reports we are having including promises of outright rebellion by some Northern mayors it may be a rocky road. There is a whiff of panic about and that never bodes well. One frequently voiced matter in the vox pops was "Where is Johnson?". Understandable, there is more Cominic Dummings than Johnson in the rumours of what is coming. The Northern Mayors were also incensed that they had got the first indication of this from a leak to the Times. These are valid points and we may hear them aired today.
In another part of the forest. Interesting that as Trump gets back on the election trail, he is expected to travel today, his doctors have not yet said that he has had a negative Covid test. Instead they waffle on about no 'viable virus'. There could be some awkward questions about this.

[Tripps]

Love the fact that Minnesota stays rock solid!

Had to smile - 50.4 % for Biden is 'rock solid'.

Just a poll though - not a binding referendum at 52 %

Biden is 1/3 favourite at the moment with Mr Power. The Orange one is 9/4.

[Stanley]

David, the state always struck me as being more laid back than most. They have a good record on social rights, women's issues and integration. Never forget it was Minnesota that gave us Garrison Keeler and Lake Woebegone!
I stumbled across some of the parliamentary debate yesterday afternoon and had to switch it off. Same old same old.
The particular issue that angers me is the stubborn bias against local councils running test and trace through properly funded Heath departments and officials with a wealth of local knowledge. Instead people like Hancock declare 'we need a mix of local and outside providers'. These 'outside providers' are the same firms that have masterminded disasters in other areas and, god save us, include American Equity sharks and the failed 'Big Four' accountants. If PE is to be believed the payments for 'consultation services' are eye watering and I for one believe every word of their reports. Someone is making a lot of money out of this.

[Tripps]

the state always struck me as being more laid back than most

Fair enough - you lived there - though I saw a map yesterday of all the States, which had it colored (sic) for 'uncertain outcome'. All will soon be revealed.

Hancock declare 'we need a mix of local and outside providers'.

That validates again, my definition of a politician -'someone who does something for one reason while saying that it's for another reason'.

[Tizer]

Biden is 1/3 favourite at the moment with Mr Power. The Orange one is 9/4.

I've never indulged in betting. Am I right to assume that means a 0.25% probability of Biden winning and 0.077% of Trump winning? If so, that sounds good to me. If I'm wrong then it's good I don't bet on horses!
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`Tax rises of more than £40bn a year 'all but inevitable'' LINK
If only we'd increased taxes in the past we could have spent money to protect us from pandemic bugs and climate change, not to mention deprivation, ill health, illiteracy, crime etc etc. But no, politicians have brains that are incapable of thinking beyond the next few years...

[Tripps]

No - actually, just about the opposite as far as I know. Biden 75 % and Trump would be 25% but the bookie has to make a turn so he's less. Add one and divide into 100 for percentage. Add all the percentages up for the 'over round' or theoretical profit.

I don't like percentages or decimal for betting - too clinical for me. I like the old (Imperial) way. Barry Dennis

[Stanley]

"I don't like percentages or decimal for betting - too clinical for me."
I don't like betting, period! In his early days living on the fly as a deserter from the Anzacs my dad ran a book running round the factories in Manchester. He was doing well, was a member of the Victoria Club and laid his bets off there. He got a flood of money in one week on a horse he 'knew' had no chance and so took a risk and didn't lay it off. It came in at a good price of course and that ended his days as a street bookie! I think that must have registered in my brain as I always eschewed gambling except for once when, taken with drink, I put a fiver on the Spring Double and to cut a long story short won about ten weeks wages. I swore then that I would go to my grave in front of the bookies and never did it again.
[But for years had a bet with Littlewoods using the same numbers on the Treble Chance before I came to my senses. I didn't see that as 'gambling'. They still send me occasional begging letters!]
That has brought to mind another story. Many years ago I found myself in a casino at Squire's Gate on Blackpool South Shore. It was fascinating watching tenners vanishing down the slot in the Roulette Table as though money had gone out of fashion. I was told that the gamblers were old cotton widows and Chinese restaurant owners. I put a coin in a one armed bandit and won about £20 so I put it in my pocket and refused to do it again. I could remember my old mate Danny Pateman who used to call in at the Green Street club in Barlick on pay day and put half his wage in a bandit. Never could see the sense in it.

[Tripps]

I stayed up far too late last night, and saw the Orange One in full flow at his latest rally. He's a good 'turn' isn't he? On the same basis that I voted for Boris - dislike of Corbyn - I'd vote for Trump over Biden.

There - I've said it. . . .

What's the Ukraine connection with Biden and his son, which seems to be emerging? Still don't know why we sent special forces to exercise with the Ukrainians.

[Stanley]

Par for the course David. Using the same measure I'd vote for Biden. It's called 'the will of the people'.
Who was it said we get the politicians we voted in?
I had a furtle and found this; Joseph de Maistre (1 April 1753 – 26 February 1821) was a Savoyard lawyer, diplomat, writer, and philosopher. Every nation gets the government it deserves. There were other attributions like Jefferson but I think de Maistre is favourite.

[plaques]

That's the problem with these charismatic Pied Pipers, a good idea until the consequences kick in. Boris and 'Get Brexit Done. and what's that chaps name who promised 'Lebensraum'.

[Tizer]

..and what's that chaps name who promised 'Lebensraum'.

Tripps will be asking if the Germans have a word for that!

I stayed up far too late last night, and saw the Orange One in full flow at his latest rally. He's a good 'turn' isn't he?

The Americast programme has been including interviews with undecided US voters. In the last episode they concluded that Trump's rallies were attracting people because they're the only big live events that folk can attend at the moment! The episode also interviewed elderly voters in Florida and they're moving away from Trump because they've found out he's rude, impolite, `a very naughty boy'.

[Stanley]

What struck me yesterday was Johnson putting off his 'deadline' of October 15th 'to see what the EU Council decides'. I also heard someone talking about the fact that it was now accepted that there was going to be disruption in traffic across the main channel routes and that was why, once again, our Leaders have hired ferries on alternate routes to ensure a way for vital supplies like medical items to get into the UK. Then there is the small matter of Ireland. This is all a tacit admission that we aren't anywhere near ready for what happens on January 1st. Add to that the fact that Rishi is whispering messages of economic doom in his ear and you begin to wonder what the basis of the Johnson Brexit policy is. All the signs point to one simple fact, he is waiting and hoping that the EU blinks. I'll leave you to assess what the chances of that are.
This is not effective governance. I can see a scenario where we find that the arrangements on the border are nowhere near ready and the bottleneck is not the EU but our own mechanisms. That alone is bad enough but have you been listening to the clear messages coming through from industry who have no idea about what is going to happen. The potential for a catastrophe is frightening.
Add to this all the other factors bearing down on us and the image I have in my mind is of a rabbit standing paralysed in the headlights in the middle of the road. It goes beyond matters of political legacy, this is the political equivalent of a death wish already, never mind complications to come. I have never seen anything like it and am helpless. My expectation is that what is coming down the road will make the Hungry Thirties look like a picnic.

[Tizer]

As well as hiring ferries there are all those portaloos they've just ordered for the lorry parks in Kent. I hope they've also ordered people to empty them!

What struck me yesterday was Johnson putting off his 'deadline' of October 15th 'to see what the EU Council decides'.

The EU is doing the same...
`Brexit: EU leaders call for UK trade talks to continue' LINK
`EU leaders have called for post-Brexit trade talks to continue beyond the end of the week - the deadline suggested by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. At a two-day summit in Brussels beginning on Thursday, they called on the UK to "make the necessary moves" towards a deal. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said fresh "intensive" talks should aim to reach a deal around the end of October. But his UK counterpart said he was "disappointed" by the EU's approach.

This is the bit that strikes me as ridiculous...
`Lord David Frost tweeted the EU was expecting "all future moves" for a deal to come from the UK, which he called an "unusual approach to conducting a negotiation". He added the prime minister would react to the EU's position as the summit wraps up on Friday.'
What's so `unusual' about it? It's the UK that decided to leave the European Union of 28 countries, not them leaving us. They're not going to suffer to anything like the extent that we will, so why should they go out of their way to suit us whan we've disrupted their union. I'm sure all the blather from Boris and Frost is just to provide material for jingoistic British newspapers.

[Stanley]

Just been listening to Lord Hennessy on World at One. Worth listening to again if you missed it. One thing that he said struck me, he reckoned that the Parties have to start talking and giving a united front. Remember back in the day when I was arguing that the scale of what we are facing is comparable to 1939 and the start of WW2? I said then we needed a coalition to deal with the crisis. Lord Hennessy mentioned that and he agrees. He is not sanguine about what is happening.
On Brexit Johnson now appears to have thrown in the towel and is advising preparing for an exit on WTO terms. This is not good.

[Stanley]

Since I wrote the above things have deteriorated even further. See THIS BBC report on later developments. Despite speculation that Johnson's announcement that 'trade talks are over' might be just an escalation in brinkmanship designed to extract concessions from the EU I fear this is the end game. I have always said that I believed that the agenda was to engineer a no-deal Brexit in line with what the hard-nosed brexiteers have been advocating all along. I am now even more convinced that this was indeed the covert game plan and that's where we are at now. Right from the start of Brexit, it has been a Tory Party project it is not a 'UK decision' despite the Referendum, it has been a unilateral argument between the rabid Brexiteers and the EU and they have won in their terms.
Look at it from another angle, Brexit was always a gamble and I think Number Ten has crossed the Rubicon and decided to go for broke. They have now nailed their colours to the mast and I fear it is the biggest foreign policy mistake I have ever seen. The consequences are incalculable and in case anyone has forgotten, now ride in tandem with the dire situation brought about by the pandemic. In economic terms this is a perfect storm. In social terms it is even worse, I don't need to detail what I think the possible effects will be.
What I expect now is reaction from Ireland, Wales and Scotland. They too have not been consulted. I see a parallel with the Covid situation where we now have open revolt inside England. Expect the same in the Union.
This has set the scene for the next century in Britain and in my opinion it is a disaster.

[plaques]

A lot of hot air is now being generated about an Australian type trade deal so exactly what is it. Basically its WTO rules Australian Trade Deal

The bulk of EU-Australia trade is currently done according to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

Other issues which would make up the full agreement have yet to be ratified with the EU. In this respect we are no nearer having an oven ready trade agreement than we are at the moment. The EU will no doubt insist on 'level playing fields' which is one of the big sticking points that we have today. Plus there is no mention of the Good Friday agreements which could sink a USA trade agreement should Trump lose the election.

framework agreement: in 2017, the two sides reached a so-called framework agreement (which is yet to be ratified) that establishes general principles of cooperation on a wide range of areas including trade, foreign policy and security, and development and humanitarian issues, among others;

That's all sorted then just get on with it. Simples.

[Sue]

I see Boris continues to say that Manchester won’t agree to conditions. What he doesn’t say is that neither he nor anyone else has spoken to the Manchester councillors since Thursday...as I understand it. He also states it is a Labour issue whilst ignoring the Tories who are also supporting Andy Burnham. I think the waiting game is being played and announcements such as my first statement so the general public will put pressure on AB to stop his demands. What I want to know is how people are expected to live on60% of their income, do they stop eating so they can pay other bills. End of rant. This is not a political statement I support neither party, but I do support human life and this is a lose lose situation. You either run the risk of catching covid by not settling or run the risk of starving or freezing in the winter months when bills aren’t paid by settling. Even those who have settled still want to fight this issue.