Lies, damned lies and statistics

[Stanley]

What a good analogy! Who was it who said, on hearing someone advocate drinking water, "Have you seen what it does to the bottoms of ships?"

[Stanley]

Advert for a new range of Everest double-glazing; "make your home 50% warmer than 'A' rated windows". Really? Does this mean a room at 60F will be 90F? Or perhaps they are 50% more efficient? Or what.....

[Stanley]

Either they've changed the advert or I was confused and the 50% refers to the discount on the windows... Senior moment?

[Tizer]

Either they've changed the advert or I was confused and the 50% refers to the discount on the windows... Senior moment?

There's a marketing claim doing the rounds in the double glazing industry about windows that not only keep in the room's warmth but heat the room too. In customers' minds it conjures up ideas of electric wires in the windows generating heat. The reality is that they are referring to window panes made with low-iron glass which allows through more of the sun's `heating' infra-red radiation than does normal glass. It means you can have a warmer room for a given level of external solar radiation (sunshine) which is great in winter but means the room will be hotter in summer. We chose to have low-iron glass to get the benefits in winter regardless of the extra summer heat which we can deal with by extra ventilation or shading. The companies' claim about `glass that heats your room' is true in the sense that it allows in extra heat but what they don't say is that it doesn't work when the sun isn't shining!

[Stanley]

Back of my house faces South and gets full sun most of the day. Noticeable how much this raises core temperature of the house and if I was changing windows I'd go for your choice Tiz. Also quite striking how the amount of wind affects core temperature despite having a well draught-proofed house. I've always said that the biggest advantage double glazing had over old wooden windows was the fact they were draught-proof.

[Tizer]

We should all be maximising our use of passive solar radiation in the cold months. It's there in abundance and free (a bit like Ubuntu!).

[Stanley]

Much criticism this morning of a survey which 'proves' there is more premature death in the NE of England than other areas. I can't find any mention on the web but it was reported on BBC R4 this morning. Genarally agreed it is a misleading use of statistics.

[Bruff]

It's our old friend small number statistics again Stanley. When you quote the deaths as 'per 100,000' it amplifies what is actually a very small difference (looking at these figures, less than 1%). That's not to deny that it demonstrates a degree of health inequality, but then that's always been known and the factors are well-established.

As an aside, there has been some reporting on those communities worldwide that enjoy great longevity. One is a Greek island where many, many folk live well in to their 90s and 100s. Many smoke, they drink a little red wine regularly. They are moderately active, have oodles of fresh air and take regular naps. They are easy going to the extent that, as an example, if you pop to the bakers and no one is there, you take a loaf and leave the money. They feast on wild mountain greens. All very noble. Meanwhile, in the Greek economy.......

Richard Broughton

[Tizer]

I remember a report about a similar sort of village in Italy where the oldies live to a ripe old age and life is very pleasant. The longevity of these folk was compared to those from the village who had gone to live in the cities, and the latter died earlier. There was much about the benefits of Mediterranean diet and lifestyle etc but what they didn't say is that those who stayed in the village may well have been quieter, more relaxed people to begin with and therefore perhaps more likely to live longer.

[Stanley]

My favourite Omega3 informant at the moment is Artemis Simopoulos who wrote 'The Omega Diet'. She's a lipid and nutrition researcher who was born on Crete and based her research on the Cretan diet. Could be the island you're thinking about Richard. Have a look at this LINK.

[Tripps]

"village in Italy where the oldies live to a ripe old age"
Remember the Bertolli adverts for their olive based spread where they showed Italian grannies pole vaulting to catch the olives? It implied they lived to a great age - well I reached for my Whittakers Almanac, and quickly found that the life expectancy in Italy was not at all exceptional, and easily beaten by Norway, where I would guess olives were not a staple of the diet.

Perhaps it's the herrings that do the trick?

[Stanley]

Have a look at Crete.... LINK

[EileenDavid]

I love Crete been 15 times. The food is superb my favourite's are Fasolia, tiropita, and Dakos unfortunately they don't agree with Dave and he bloats up with this type of food so although they are considered good for you they are not suitable for all. Eileen

[Stanley]

Can it be true that after road accidents, the most common cause of death in young men between 17 and 35 years old is suicide?

[Tizer]

Couldn't find any data for `young men between 17 and 35 years old'. Deaths of all males in transport accidents in England and Wales in 2010 was about 2000. About 4500 men committed suicide in 2011 but I don't know what the data were for young men only.

[Stanley]

I found THIS on the Samaritans site. Looks as though there could be some truth in the report. How sad.....

[Tizer]

The nearest we can get to your 17-35 range from the Samaritans figures is by combining the groups between 15 and 34. There were 1242 male deaths in this combined group in 2011. That's somewhat less than my approximate 2000 figure for `Deaths of all males in transport accidents in England and Wales in 2010', so suicide death rate is not far behind road accident death rate for this group of males. However the statement that `after road accidents, the most common cause of death in young men between 17 and 35 years old is suicide' is really not possible to verify because there could be several other causes of death that fit between the two rates. It depends how you choose to categorise `cause of death'.

[Bruff]

Quite a few of the news wires and print media commenting today on the Health Secretary's comments regarding errors in the health service leading to 8 deaths a day.

A meaningless statistic. First, how does it compare to other countries/systems? 1M folk pass through the system every day an' half, so is this death rate tolerable? If not, what would be tolerable? None? Is that achievable, or even desireable as in any human system there is, is there not, an inevitable trade-off with respect to human error?

Oh, and for comparison, an order of magnitude more die each day in this country from an illness or disease caused or made worse by work. As Mr Hunt's drip-drip of 'failures' seems at face value almost designed to cast the NHS in the most dreadful light for reasons and an end unclear to me at this stage, can we perhaps similarly drip-drip this appalling toll to show work in a poor light? And if not, why not?

Richard Broughton

[Wendyf]

Did you hear the report on R4 this morning about the improved figures for people with diabetes dying? Ten years ago you were twice as likely to die if you had diabetes, now you are only one and a half times more likely to die. I thought it happened to us all in the end.

[Stanley]

Wendy, quite right! Life is a terminal disease.
Richard good point about the dripping of dire news. Is the next move going to be to outsource hospital inspections to Virgin? What a disturbing thought!

[plaques]

Keep dripping the bad news and eventually they will be able to prove that the NHS is not fit for purpose. Then we shall have to introduce some good old fashion competition where people can make informed choices and get the service they want. Of course there will be some element of added costs to these choices but in the end it will become clear that private medicine is superior with better outcomes. Subsequent league tables will then show that the rump end NHS cannot compete and should be handed over to the best practice organisations who in turn will trim the loss making sections leaving only the profitable ones.

The end of the NHS QED.

[Tripps]

Will the 'good old fashioned competition' include the private sector paying for the training of all the doctors and nurses they employ?

[Stanley]

So the NHS does nothing well? Go and look at the awful and expensive private system they have in the States and the queues outside the occasional events that give free consultations. I know a lady whose uncle was diagnosed with cancer, he topped himself so as not to bankrupt the family, this is a common occurrence. No thanks, I'll stick to our system which is the envy of the world but not the market.

[Stanley]

66% of women prefer men with no chest hair.... Who cares apart from the makers of products for removing it?

[Bruff]

I suspect the poster above on private/NHS was being ironic.

Seems like I managed to bag myself one of the 36% who prefer chest hair. Mind you, as I've none on my head and haven't had since my mid-20s, this might just be a compensatory preference on her part. I might have to ask her.

Richard Broughton