The Referendum.

[Big Kev]

I noticed the "brexit" fliers are becoming more prevalent around the town, one appeared on the telegraph pole in Park St very recently. Should I stay or should I go is a hard one to call, I have a theory based purely on what happened in the general election and what I was seeing on social media, very strong support for a Labour win. We all know the result so my theory is there's a silent majority who will sway the outcome to remain. I do hope my simplistic view is correct as the alternative doesn't inspire me with confidence for the future.

[Bruff]

Yes I noticed fliers and posters in Barlick when I was up the other weekend. It is the only place I have seen any. Seen none at all on Wirral, in Liverpool, in Sheffield or Manchester and Stockport the weekend gone.

There was a good short article in Prospect magazine by Richard Dawkins. He was arguing we should never have been asked the question as almost everyone, and he included himself, lacks the political, economic, geopolitical etc. skills and knowledge to make an informed judgment on such a monumental issue. We pay (well) politicians to do this, as we have a representative democracy, not one based on popular plebiscite. He suggested most people’s decision will be based on whether they like Boris’ hair or not, and similar. Which is disgraceful.

He is for remain. Based on the view, which I agree with, that at least the remain side have tried to bring evidential rigour to the debate albeit on matters inherently uncertain. Thus, follow the precautionary principle as a well-known tool for decision-making under conditions of uncertainty: ‘better the devil you know’ as he said or as others say: ‘better to be approximately right rather than precisely wrong’ when you have some analysis. And Brexit have singularly failed here.

Richard Broughton

[Tizer]

That's why on the Politics Corner thread I wrote: "Perhaps a decision of this type should be decided using a system like `Step forward all those who want to leave the EU. We only leave if more than 50% of you step forward." In other words, any who don't vote will be counted as preferring the status quo, whether they have indicated so or not."

[Bruff]

Some of that type of discussion was had during the passage of the Bill for the referendum. In addition, the quadruple lock notion was suggested: that a majority in all four countries of the Union must vote the same way. Plus of course, given this is a once in a lifetime in effect vote, extending the franchise to 16-year olds as they did in Scotland.

What happens if there’s a 40% turnout and a 49.5/50.5 vote either way?

I suspect turnout might be large, and the Electoral Commission are planning for an 85%, which supposedly helps Remain. Plus, apparently a 3% swing to Remain among Labour voters will deliver Remain [not sure if that’s correct], though it was always getting the Labour vote out that would deliver. I still think we’ll leave now though.

Anyone see Mr Gove last night? He made the standard Brexit mistake on the post-leave environment. He assumed it would be all about the economics because the UK always assumes it is, just as they assume the ears of other EU Governments are as receptive to the demands of business as their own are (which they may not be). It won’t be just about this. It will be about politics and that might trump everything. It is this point that I find the hardest to get across to Brexiters: they simply cannot grasp it and often refuse to even acknowledge it. Not surprising as in my experience most think the EU is the ‘common market’.

Richard Broughton

[plaques]

I fear Jeremy Corbyn has been too quiet and has sat back to let the Tory party destroy themselves with their insulting emotive back biting arguments over the referendum.

I tend to agree that he has been too quiet but only in the sense that he tends to say things once and then moves on. Unfortunately in today's world things have to be repeated ad nauseam before they sink in. The advertising industry and the right wing newspapers have been doing this for years now we see Brexit campaign doing the same thing, even if they are economical with the truth. To an outsider the Tory party may look like they are tearing themselves apart but after this is all over with they will regroup as though nothing had happened. Remember although there appears to be some political principle at stake all that will be forgotten and we will be back to all that matters to the Tories, power and money.

[Tripps]

" just as they assume the ears of other EU Governments are as receptive to the demands of business as their own are (which they may not be). It won’t be just about this. It will be about politics and that might trump everything."

Perhaps that's a reason to leave. Why should our future be tied to the dubious politics' of 27 other countries?

You must be very frustrated Richard at the moment having such an in depth and first hand knowledge of the topic, yet seeing ignorant people cause the the drift go the opposite way.

This is probably a bit fanciful, but my mind keeps returning to the book 'Remains of the Day' in which the fascist sympathiser Lord Darlington teases the butler Stevens' father's lack of knowledge of politics, yet he still has the same single vote as him.

We must rely on 'the wisdom of crowds' .

For what it's worth - I still think remain will shade it. I'm an instinctive outsider, but I think there will be years of chaos if the leavers win.

I don't trust telephone surveys. I've had some - till I was put on the black list. What sort of person wants to spend twenty minutes on the phone to a total stranger - not a representative of the general public, I'd say. Do they still just use land lines? That would rule out many younger people.

Just a few disconnected thoughts. Isn't it good to have somewhere like this to publish them

I do wish I was cleverer.

[Stanley]

"It seems as if the country is being swept by hysteria on the issue; a very dangerous position."
That just about sums it up for me. I'm not going to repeat all I have said before, this situation is a disgrace rooted in self-serving politicking. Cameron is having his 'Blair' moment, posing the question is as big a mistake as throwing our lot in with Dubya and going into Iraq.
I hope Tripps is right...... I am very pessimistic at the moment but will stick to my convictions and vote remain next week.

[PanBiker]

I was bemused by the two blokes on the NW evening news program last night when asked how they were voting. "Out, Out" came the reply. When asked why they both said it was because immigrants were coming over here and taking all the jobs that we wouldn't do! Have I missed something?

[Tizer]

No, you haven't missed anything Ian, it's a recurring theme. The fear of immigrants is running parallel to the fear of `other' in general at the moment. Fear of Jews, Muslims and so on. And it's a blame game, blaming on others the problems which we've brought upon ourselves.

Bruff wrote: "...most [brexiters] think the EU is the ‘common market’." It is a bit confusing, what with there being the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the European Economic Community (EEC), the latter becoming the European Community (EC). And then of course there's the European Commission, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and the European Court of Human Rights. Probably also many others that, fortunately, we don't hear about!

[PanBiker]

The latest leaflet from the leave campaign has just been delivered, individually addressed. Map on the back showing the countries that are "lined up for joining" including Turkey who have been "lined up" for the last 30 years with little prospect of meeting the criteria for a good few years yet, I have heard maybe 2030 if they sort themselves out.

Included on the map also is Syria and Iraq just for more disinformation and to help raise the paranoia even further.

The map is clearly labelled "Countries set to join the EU" so is firmly an untruth and should not be allowed on the leaflet. Of course they will say that they are included "for information". How many will be duped by that?

[Tizer]

I must have got that leaflet at the same time as you, Ian, and I haven't read it in detail yet but the bit that you've mentioned leapt out at me immediately because I saw the back cover first. As you say, very misleading. They've coloured a number of countries in red and said they are `lined up for joining' the EU then they've coloured Syria and Iraq in pink and don't give any explanation of what the pink is meant to tell us. But many will assume that pink is equivalent to red, or at least that it indicates a step behind red, i.e. Syria and Iraq will be next. I hope that those who are thinking of voting Out in the referendum will realise that this is how they'll be treated in the future. I know that the In campaigners may have made some misleading claims but it's nothing like the scale on which the Outers are blatantly lying and misleading us.

I'm listening to recordings of Tim Harford's `Referendum in Numbers' 10-minute programmes (see above for web link to podcasts) and heard the one on Law while eating lunch today. It dealt with Farage's claims of 59 laws being foisted on us against our government's wishes by the EU and put it into perspective by revealing that in the same time period we approved and adopted 2,466 EU laws. There are also claims that the UK votes against proposed EU laws more often than any other country in the EU. Again, delving into the detail reveals that this is because if Britain objects to a proposed law it simply votes No whereas other countries often choose to abstain and these abstain votes are not recorded. Another point was that a vast number of the regulations and laws passed by the EU are either on very minor topics or are not relevant to the UK (e.g farming of tobacco).

[Tripps]

This is the sort of thing I had in mind when I spoke of 'chaos. Referendum

[Stanley]

Good article Dave, the last sentence is particularly telling; "These past few weeks have entrenched prejudices far more than they have opened minds"
I got that leaflet but never looked at it, straight in the bin.
THIS report in the Guardian on Angela Merkel's warning about extreme language in debate is worth a read. She doesn't make a direct link with the referendum debate but her meaning is clear and I think well founded. I was struck yesterday, listening to Cameron saying we should guard against all forms of intolerance and erosion of the political process in the context of the Cox assassination and it struck me his words applied equally to the utterances of the more rabid contenders in the 'debate'. The comparison Merkel used was the deterioration of manners and ethics we see in social media and for me at least, the point is well taken.
Regardless of the outcome of the actual vote or Parliament's actions in consequence, immense damage has been done already. Some very nasty fires have been stoked in both the UK and Europe. I can think of no redeeming features of Cameron's Catastrophe..... How can we address chaos in society if it is all to evident in the one place where sanity and logic should prevail, amongst our mechanisms of governance?

[Tizer]

BBC news reports this morning that: "Former defence chief Lord Guthrie has switched sides to the Leave campaign in the EU referendum, saying he is worried by the prospect of "a European army"...and yet Michael Fallon says: "Our security rests on Nato. No one seriously disputes that. Britain will never be part of an EU army," he said. "We have a veto on all EU defence matters and we would oppose any move to create one. In fact, I don't know any European defence minister who wants a European army," Mr Fallon added.
I get the impression that an awful lot of people don't understand the meaning of the word veto, `the power to prohibit legislation proposed by others'.

Another suspicious claim in that Vote Leave leaflet...it says UK business won't lose out if we leave the EU because "only 6% of British businesses export to the EU". This gives people the impression that 94% of our exports go to non-EU countries. Not true. We currently export 44% of goods and services to the EU (ONS figure). The apparent discrepancy is caused by the different basis used for the calculation. Vote Leave choose to base their claim on the proportion of the number of businesses (based on a report by Business for Britain, which looked at the proportion of VAT-registered companies that submitted EC sales lists to the government) rather than the proportion of exports. And the majority of British businesses don't export anything - ONS figures show only 15% of them `engaged in international trade' in 2014.

[Stanley]

To paraphrase WSC.... 'Never in the history of governance have so many been bamboozled so badly by so few'. It is a national disgrace.
Reports that all Jo Cox's killer said yesterday at the magistrates hearing at Westminster was slogans about killing traitors to the country. Granted he may be deranged but did the present political climate trigger him? Actions have consequences... how much responsibility should the more rabid protagonists bear? Are there others like him out there? I know this is a pessimistic view but it is not devoid of merit, there are some very weird people out there.
As for lord Guthrie..... the danger (if any) of a general European rearmament and neglect of NATO would best be countered by being in there and arguing against it, not taking our bat home.

[Tizer]

The latest Radio 4 `Point of View' was Roger Scruton on `A Petition Against Petitions'. It's worth listening to.
The BBC page states: Roger Scruton says the fashion for government by petition is out of step with representative democracy in which representatives are not elected to relay the opinions of their constituents but to represent their interests. "The common good, rather than mass sentiment, should be the source of law, and the common good may be hard to discover and easily obscured by crowd emotions."
Available as an mp3 podcast here: Podcast or on Iplayer here: Iplayer

On the BH programme this morning Shirley Williams wisely made the point that dealing with climate change is a global issue and this is a time for joining with other nations to tackle the problem, not a time for setting ourselves aside from global issues.

Here's a useful independent web site on the facts and claims bandied about in the referendum debate: FullFacts

And here is the BBC's EU referendum poll tracker: Polls

[PanBiker]

I spent a while yesterday delivering leaflets for the remain campaign produced by Pendle CLP. During delivery I had one belligerent NO but a few more positives and thanks for our offerings. Not many posters on display in the area we delivered to from either camp.

[Stanley]

We listen to the same programmes Tiz. I heard Roger Scruton on Point of View and thought he was excellent. He is right of course, the referendum damages 'democracy', or our version of it, because to hold one is to abdicate responsibility. I listened to Gove trotting out his propaganda and watched the Leave advert last night. (Noticed that they repeated one segment twice. To reinforce the point?)
Shirley is right and repeats the point I made about the complete absence of any mention of the wider responsibilities we all have to pursue cooperation and joint action in a rapidly changing world. Just one example, apart from completely ignoring the fact that half of our present inward migration is non EU, nobody is addressing the looming global crisis as climate change triggers greater movement of populations than the Ice Age. Instead of rabbiting on about sovereignty and days of empire we should be grasping every opportunity to be part of the whole and not be Guernseyfied as the French finance minister said the other day. (I think he went over the top but could see what he was getting at).
We will know in five days. I hope we vote to remain. After that, no matter what the result we will have to watch the internal political consequences. My own opinion is that even if he survives, Cameron will be crippled as the reservoirs of resentment and bile open up inside the Tory Party. The only fly in that ointment is the fact that historically, the Tories are expert in papering over the cracks when self-preservation is the driver.
The long term result of all this could be the realisation that we have a 19th century political system which is broken beyond repair. We need a radical revision.

[plaques]

Rather than leaving the common market we would be better off trying to get Russia to join. In that way we would have one less enemy to worry about and be able to reduce the expenditure on armaments. But America would never let us go down this road.

[Tizer]

I've listened to all five of those 10-minute `More or Less' programmes now and they are excellent. They've gone out of their way to find the most independent and objective commentators. It's particularly interesting how often the troubles ascribed by Brexiteers to the EU will still affect us even if we leave the union. For example, the Leave campaigners repeatedly tell us that EU regulations hold back British industry and businesses; yet when you delve into the details you find that the laws and regulations that industry and business are most concerned about are ones originated by the UK government, not by the EU.

[Stanley]

I agree about the 'More or Less' contributions. I got another 'LEAVE' flyer yesterday in the post. It was a rerun of the usual canards about the £350million a week and the NHS plus immigration scares. How anybody could be persuaded by such rubbish beats me. You'd have to be verging on brain dead/rabid to agree with it.
What interests me over the last few days is how much pussy-footing there is round the elephant in the room of the Jo Cox murder. Even police reporting is muted about the possible Far Right links and Jo's advocacy of REMAIN as reasons for her death. Notwithstanding I have an idea that a lot of people will have joined the dots and perhaps identified a possible connection with leaving the EU.
It's very hard to read the runes but I am slightly more sanguine about the result than I was a couple of days ago. I may be wrong but I can see the possibility of a slim majority for REMAIN on Thursday.
I hope I am right, I have reviewed my decision carefully and can't see any reason to change my original intention, to vote REMAIN. My main reason is that in a changing world we must not retreat into isolationism based on spurious notions of Britain being 'different'. This does not mean I support loss of economic or political independence, the world is changing and we should change with it. If this involves some increase in distance between us and the US so be it. They tried Isolationism in the 1930s and found it unworkable.
Roll on the end of this uncertainty on Friday......

[Sue]

I do agree Stanley. I was talking to a friend yesterday who is voting leave. She said she had studied all the arguments and it was not about immigration. I then proceed to give her my reasons and mentioned all sorts she hadn't thought about, she has gone away to think. I think I confused her. She asked me what my girls would vote. I said IN of course. One is an environmental officer with the Environment Agency with a strong dependence on EU legislation, think of your clean beaches in the Uk, I said.. The other is a scientist working for a German company.p and promoting and helping important medical research in our universities

[Tizer]

I too think that the result will be a decision to remain in the EU. One of the most obvious signals now is that the stock markets and currency prices are shifting back in the other direction after their temporary blip due to worries about leaving. People who know a lot about risk, probability, economics and market sentiment are putting their money on remaining in the EU. The big guns of industry and business are warning people they need to vote Remain if they want to avoid job losses, falling wages and economic stagnation. Professionals are pointing out the dangers to our science. technology, engineering, industry and commerce (Sue's daughters for example). These are the people that the government should have consulted in order to make a decision themselves rather than abdicating their responsibilities and setting up a referendum. We could have avoided all this heartache, stress, fighting, and waste of time and money. And Jo Cox might still have been alive.

[Stanley]

And I saw somewhere that 85% of historians favour REMAIN as well Tiz. I hope we are right, I see endless trouble if we do a runner from our responsibilities for that is what a vote for LEAVE is.
Something that struck me was that so many of the politicians I was uncertain about or actively disliked have come out on the LEAVE side. Boris, Gove and Redwood are the ones that spring to mind first. Many years ago a senior civil servant who worked with Redwood when he was Welsh Secretary told me he was a dangerous man. He wasn't given to pronouncements like that and it impressed me. I am certain now he was right.
What is certain is that post referendum we are in for interesting political times, whatever the outcome.
One quote that struck me is that 'Project Fear' is actually 'Project Hate'. I think that is true, so much of the anti immigrant agitation is based on xenophobia. Once you start down that road you start to include Jews, Gipsies, homosexuals and the mentally ill. Remind you of anything?

[David Whipp]

A loose acquaintance of mine who lives in Earby, stage name of Kike Deville, posted the following on facebook yesterday evening.

This morning her post has 70 shares and 948 likes.

For those of you who do not know:

My name is Kristianne Robinson. 12 years ago I moved to the UK. I am an immigrant.

I'm not seen as that because I am white, speak English as my first language and come from a Commonwealth country. I got a job the week I moved here. It was in a call centre. It sucked. I've paid tax and National Insurance from that first week. I have never claimed a benefit. I am an immigrant.

I've never taken a job from anyone. I run my own business doing something that I am good at. I contribute to the various communities that I am involved with. I am the Parent Ambassador for a charity. I co-administrate a number of groups that promote inclusion and community spirit. I am an immigrant.

When you vote on Thursday, please do it with genuine intentions. If you are voting to "control immigration" and that is your main reason, perhaps you need to take a look around and ask what you contribute to your society. Because I bet I do just as much.

I am an immigrant.