POLITICS CORNER

[Tardis]

114 Tory MPs confirmed the split in their ranks last night. The amendment didn't pass but Cameron has had a clear message from them. I imagine Labour is just sitting back watching the Coalition tearing themselves apart. Silence is not golden in this case, they should step in with alternatives.

As far as I'm aware, only 1 Tory MP voted against the amendment. Check Hansard. To my mind that isn't split, pretty unified.

I'm more concerned that no one has yet described exactly what they are trying to negoitiate to stay in Europe

Germany is apparently heavily lobbying to get the UK to stay to protect it's markets from the protectionism of France and the southern states

I can't really commentate on the Labour position, because I'm not aware of one.

[Stanley]

It was a clear message to Cameron, that's the split, what to do to make themselves electable and they want more than Dave is giving them.
Report this morning that Ossie's projected cuts of £11.5 billion in 2014/15 is in trouble. Ministers have identified only £2.5 billion, they say that the 'low hanging fruit' has been picked. Ossie and Danny Alexander insist that they will meet the target so the question is how?

[Stanley]

Nigel came up against real politics in Scotland and I'm afraid he didn't like it. Hanging up the phone on a radio interview is an own goal. To paraphrase Alec Salmond, if you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen! Farage hasn't done himself any favours.
It looks though Mr Gove will be on the naughty step at the teacher's conference today....
Struck by the news from Iraq. More bombings and the general opinion is that conditions are worse than they were under Saddam Hussein and the country is descending into civil war which will most likely end up with partition into the old kingdoms again. The Kurds in the North, The Sunnis in Baghdad and the Shi’ites in Basra. In other words the Kurds and the Shia will have the oil. This is exactly what the division was at the beginning of the 20th century when we went in and reorganised them. See this LINK for the story of Gertrude Bell who was one of the FO's movers and shakers. Add the bombing campaign the RAF conducted against people who weren't paying tax and the use of chemical weapons then place on top the disgraceful way the oil companies acted and you have a witches brew of influences that are now beginning to bite us.
Then, if you really want to get depressed about western intervention in things they don't really understand for reasons they can't clearly demonstrate have a look at Afghanistan where the same scenario is playing out as we struggle to disengage. Oh, and don't forget to add Libya, Lebanon and Syria to the worry list. Then there's the question of the Israeli/Palestine matter. And while you're at it don't forget Iran.... On the whole, not a pretty picture.
Another area where it's not a pretty picture is the EU. While Parliament goes through its madness the economic climate is worsening. Not a good club to be joining at all.....

[Thomo]

On a brighter note, at least the North Koreans seem to have gone quiet for a while. There is a common denominator in some of the above; Religion, historic conflict between differents factions of the same faith, this predates the discovery of oil.

[Tardis]

Slight problems for Labour? Refusing to rule out reversing the so called "Bedroom Tax"

Margaret Hodge well and truly skewered on both C4 and Sky news over her hypocrisy over company tax affairs

The Cameroon has always been a eurosceptic, any other comment is smoke and mirrors, and if the tories are split, why did they publish a draft bill to be taken up by a back bencher.

Let's have the real debate about what we are renegotiating and stop all the scare stories

[Nolic]

North Korean tensions still clearly there. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/ma ... ud-missile Nolic

[Stanley]

Funny how so many prominent Tories are convinced the party is divided..... Lord Howe reckons that Cameron has lost control of the party over Europe and interestingly says that a consequence of leaving the EU would be Britain losing international status. My opinion is that this wouldn't be a bad thing, we spend far too much money ensuring that we 'punch above our weight' and that money would be better spent on home affairs. The place at the top table is an expensive luxury that we can't afford and gets us into some very dodgy enterprises. Funny thing is that nobody ever counts the cost of Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan etc. What is the relationship between that and our debts?
Latest poll figures show Labour leading Tories by 6 percentage points, Libs nowhere and UKIP down to 19%.
I see Mervyn King has come out against the loans from the Treasury to aid mortgages. Quite right to. I have long held that the favourable treatment of house buyers by the government, at one time the interest payments were tax-deductible, was one of the major factors in inflating property prices and eventually fuelling the loans bubble of 2008. Let housing find its own level and apply any funds to more immediate needs like lessening the cuts. Ossie's plan envisages £18.5 billion of cuts before the next election but comes up with hare-brained schemes like this.
The US credit card will be maxed out by September. They are either going to have to apply for a higher limit or start cutting expenses and raising taxes. Depressingly familiar story to the last time.

[Stanley]

Cameron is visited at Downing Street by a party of senior members of local Conservative Associations who are protesting against the damage being done to grass roots members and recruiting by the efforts to legalise gay marriage. The theory is that Dave kicked this off to 'prove' how in touch he was with the 'ordinary people' but it's backfired on him and has been made worse by the description of activists as "swivel-eyed loons" by someone close to him, an accusation which is gaining more traction as there is talk about the person concerned being asked directly in the House whether he said it. A spokesman last night said that it was exacerbating the feeling that there are too many toffs from Eton in the inner circle. Very reminiscent of the worst days of Blair when he was relying on sofa government and losing his grip. Cameron publicly described last night on R4 as 'accident-prone' by one of his backbenchers. Not a picture of a united party happy with its leadership. Cameron is reported to have alluded to the Coalition splitting as the next election gets nearer in order to create 'blue water' between the Tories and the LibDems. Jeremy Hunt of all people put up as a firewall for Cameron. Looking at his track record one is forced to wonder how desperate the leadership is, this was no accident.
The question is, are the Tories so preoccupied by internal divisions and fear of the next election that it is damaging good governance?

[Stanley]

The crap has hit the fan. Cameron sends an extraordinary email to grass roots Tories. See this LINK. To say he is on the back foot is putting it mildly and there are no signs of the problem abating so that proper attention can be paid to the job of governing the country. This is not only damaging the Tory Party but good governance as well.

[Stanley]

Perturbation caused by large multi-nationals minimising their tax perfectly legally spreads. Apple are on the block in the US at the moment. You can't really blame them for taking advantage of the opportunities available to them under tax law. The answer is to change the law instead of shouting at the CEOs who are only doing their best for the shareholders, talk about morality is out of place and useless. Margaret Hodge reports that the NAO have found that HMRC are still not doing very well in catching up on overpayments under the Tax Credit System. Do you ever wonder whether either the system is too complicated or is it that enough resource isn't being put into running it? Probably both.....
Not lo0ng now before MPs go off for the summer (can't think why when there is so much to do) and one thing is certain, Parliamentary breaks are a fertile time for discussions in back rooms and fermentation of dissent.... Have a nice holiday Dave!
See this LINK for the resignation of Sir David Nicholson. Good!
I'd like to put a word in for the Pagans. During the discussions about gay marriage someone has raised the objection that Pagan marriage could be let in by the back door. The Pagans were an organised belief system long before Christianity and are still active. On what grounds are they excluded from being a recognised belief system?

[Tardis]

HMRC reckoned to be losing £1 in every £12 of Tax Credits

In 2010-11 HMRC lost £2.3billion to fraud and error — mistakes making up £1.6billion of the loss

Almost 70% error /30% Fraud rate.

[Stanley]

This will sound cynical but I don't believe it is, it's a reflection of how politics works in this modern world. The Woolwich killing and the government reaction will kill all reporting about internal divisions in the Tory Party and so will give some relief to those poor hard pressed PR people. In those famous words, a good excuse to bury bad news. Expect them to keep this pot boiling for as long as possible.

[Tardis]

I can't tell you how sick I am of having to tweet every time that these are NOT Muslims. This is NOT Islam. These are f***** up barbarians

I agree

[Tardis]

In other news, Margaret Hodge has been reported by UKIP for her less than open stance on her personal tax status after being skewered on Sky and C4

[Stanley]

Predictably, Cameron comes under attack for relaxing over a coffee on holiday. Shouldn't he be at home minding the shop?

[hartley353]

When Mr Cameron is at home, he fails on most levels as to what would be considered as minding the Shop. Perhaps it would be better if he stayed in the sun, and a safer pair of hands was found.

[Stanley]

News that Ossie has found some savings from the Whitehall departments but nowhere near enough to hit his target in the next spending round to be announced in four weeks. He is going to have to disregard all the advice/criticism and cut even deeper. Not good news for the poor or the economy at large.
One of the present puzzles about the economy is what is actually happening. Economists argue for and against allowing inflation to rise and speculate about the surprising levels of activity in the stock markets. I'm beginning to suspect that one of the factors at work is that the lords of the universe have found ways of making profit in a flat-lining economy, after all, when you think about it, if inflation rises commercial interest rates usually follow. The only thing I am certain about is that this is not a healthy way to run an economy. Is cutting current spending on essentials like staffing and services in order to finance big long term infrastructure projects the right way to go?

[Tardis]

Gordon Brown announced as sitting MP who made the most money last year outside the House. £1.3m, with costs of £600k

Reportedly he doesn't keep a penny, but did not substantiate where the money went, or whether it was declared as earned or unearned income to HMRC.

[Stanley]

News in PE about the Gordon and Sarah office....
BBC2 did a good programme (1 of 3) last night on the Iraq war. Very comprehensive and useful in that it reminds us of who did what in what was probably the biggest foreign policy disaster ever. I'm on record as being against the incursion from the start and I saw nothing last night to convince me I was wrong. Incidentally I have always held the same view about Afghanistan... Latest estimates of the total cost of UK involvement in Afghanistan is close to £40 billion and still rising.
News in PE that Vince Cable at al may have read the major PE presentation about LLPs and the use of spurious companies to launder money. His department said last week that they are looking at them again. Very good analysis of the role of Milliband and Balls as Gordon Brown's sidekicks in the growth of loopholes for tax avoidance. Also a very good analysis of the links Google has to the Coalition government, quite amazing how nepotism has allowed them to have influence.

[Tardis]

Retail sales fell by 1.3% in April

[Tardis]

YouGov poll in The Times (paywall). Milibland less trusted than Brown:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/poli ... 778165.ece

[Stanley]

See this LINK for news about Patrick Mercer, the MP trapped while accepting bribes to lobby for Fiji in the House. Of course he denies it was a bribe but how else can it be described? When Cameron came into power he said that lobbying was the next big Parliamentary scandal, he was right, so what is he doing about it? Will the SPADS seconded without pay from the big accountancy firms be included?
Watch for trouble around The Reverend Lord Green as the US justice system digs further into money laundering. He's Minister of State for Trade and Industry and his CV includes McKinsey's and HSBC where he was in charge of 'corporate planning' which I understand to be a euphemism for advising companies on how their tax liability could be minimised.
Why is it that one could get the impression that in Parliament Jobs for the Boys and more attention paid to maximising income is perhaps more important than good governance? It's probably all perfectly legal but does nothing to reassure voters that all members are working full time for their constituents and good governance.

[Stanley]

Remember the Labour theme tune 'Things can only get better'? As far as the Coalition is concerned, things can only get worse. First Patrick Mercer, then the three peers allegedly caught with their hand in the till and now Cameron is 'shocked' by allegations deemed as explosive as the old Major/Curry affair Have a look at this LINK and reflect that this is a Tory paper.
Now as you know, I am a realist, some would say a cynic. Isn't there something beyond coincidence that at a time when the PM is under enormous pressure from within his own party and is being accused of losing control that suddenly, over a couple of days, this can of worms surfaces? Add the arrest of the deputy speaker and you start to wonder what is coming next. One thing is reasonably certain, names will be named shortly. My advice to Mr Cameron is that if he's looking for the source he should start close to home. This has all the marks of a conspiracy, too much too quickly to be coincidence.
If you want a laugh have a look at the website 'Prides Purge' (LINK) in which the names are revealed!

[Stanley]

Strange silence over 'the shocking affair'. One gets the impression that the media are being very careful about this one but some interesting undercurrents are stirring out in the blogosphere!
Some interesting comments on internal Parliamentary matters yesterday, particularly on the strange delay in bringing in stronger rules on lobbying. One of the problems seems to be deciding exactly what constitutes 'lobbying' Do they include SPADS and free secondments/ Does it extend to committees where poachers have turned gamekeepers and are policing the areas in which they used to be active/ Does it include the revolving door? Also mentioned was the fact that MPs are increasingly upset by the stricter rules on expenses, some reckon they are getting into debt and the current climate is not conducive to them pursuing their pay claim. I shall not be losing any sleep.

[Nolic]

As I posted elsewhere I think its Sam Cam and Boris. She's worked out how to stay in Number 10. Nolic