The Referendum.

[PanBiker]

Either way, the aftermath will be interesting to say the least. I don't think anyone would deny that the run up has been divisive, how this will pan out in reconciliation within the parties after the vote remains to be seen. It's scary that it has shades of Germany in the 1930's even down to the infighting within the political groups and we know how that ended.

I noticed on facebook that the conspiracy theorists are out and about, encouraging people to take a pen to the polling booth! It's amazing how many folk have no idea about how the polling and count procedures actually work.

Later: delivered more leaflets, did the avenues.

[Whyperion]

Some REMAINers have promised/hoped/indicated that the EU can be modified going forward to be better (for UK interests) would they please explain exactly how they expect this to happen, and (assuming there is not an enlargment of additional countries in the practical future) how the structural problems with the Euro as common currency can be resolved, and how the I presume still desired idea of <economic convergence> will actually occur, without directly (adversely) affecting UK rates of VAT and Corporation Tax at some time in the not too distance future

[Tripps]

The Liberal democrats were out in Cambridge this afternoon, standing at traffic light junctions waving 'Remain' posters at static, and passing motorists. "Honk if you want to remain". I didn't hear any honking, and couldn't think, in the time available, how to indicate the opposite view.

I'm going for 'Leave'. I don't like the expansionist ideas of the EU. They've been courting Ukraine - that went well didn't it. I read that work is starting on Georgia next. I don't think Putin is someone we should be poking with a sharp stick. I don't think we'll be safer in the EU. Didn't German recognition of Croatia trigger the start of the Balkan troubles?

I don't trust Cameron's 'cast iron' guarantees about any thing. He is obviously dissembling about Turkey.

I spent Saturday evening fantasising about how much to bet on ' Remain' at odds of 1/2. Looked like buying money at the time. I'm not so sure now. I think an election this year at 10/1 looks like better value now. We'll see - I'll stock up on popcorn for tomorrow night. It's all a bit complicated for my little brain.

Ian is right - "Either way, the aftermath will be interesting to say the least"

[PanBiker]

I would like to watch the lot through the night but I have a job at school at 8.30am on Friday morning. I may hit the sack at 8.00pm tomorrow night and get up at 5am, that might work, it should be interesting about then.

[Stanley]

You're right Ian, I always get the benefit of early rising on a day when a vote is being cast.
David, good facebook post from the lady in Earby. My dad was an immigrant.....
Vote early, vote often.....

[Bruff]

Someone up the thread asked whether I was frustrated with the debate given that I know a little bit about the EU and its institutions. My knowing a bit is neither here nor there really as there are plenty of things I know nothing at all about. My frustration with the debate is that we seem to have tipped into what commentators call post-truth politics. That is, what the facts are, what the experts say and the like matter not a jot. There are many ‘stories that can be told’ and all have a validity. Thus, one of the leaders of the Leave campaign sees it as a badge of honour that overwhelming numbers of experts disagree with him, in recent days charmingly summoning the Nazis’ objection to Einstein’s work in support of this contrariness. The idea of ‘expert opinion’ is diminished as we are all experts based on the story or stories we might tell.

Thus, reasonable assessments of risk on a matter inherently unknown is deemed ‘scare-mongering’, or a ‘Project Fear’. Expressions of risk are met with ‘no one knows’ rather than being seen as information that can be calmly assessed. One wonders why? Would we, when hearing a Dr explain the risks associated with a medical procedure where outcomes are very often unknown, see this as their being scaremongers? After all they are, just like the IFS et al, explaining risks that might never manifest so that one can make a judgment one way or another. Maybe we are, however misguidedly, all experts now. I imagine many a GP with their 5 years at medical school, 5 years post-graduate training and on-going professional development, being told they don’t know what they are talking about by someone who has spent 30mins on Google. As we know, for a long time teachers have been traduced by self-proclaimed experts in education and pedagogy generally on the basis of the these experts having once been to school.

On some questions raised in recent days. Turkey joining. My view is they won’t be in a fit state to join for 10 years, probably 15 to 20 and quite possibly 30 years. But the bigger point is this. If Turkey meets all 30-odd areas the EU requires to the standards met by all other current members, why should Turkey not join? No one seems to ask this question. If Turkey has the institutions and governance that make it a liberal 21st century democracy and free-market economy, why should it not join the EU? And please bear in mind that Turkey is a vital member of NATO; there may come a day when our sovereignty is overridden and we go to the defence of Turkey as a NATO member, as NATO just like the EU is an institution where our sovereignty is traded and pooled for a greater perceived good. Sovereignty arguments are just so much rubbish.

On Mr Putin. He has a very clear idea of where the geographical boundaries of Russia reside and that non-Russians may find themselves within these boundaries at some stage is really neither here nor there to him. I imagine a Brexit-weakened EU would be ideal for him as he would be able to up his mischief-making in the Baltic states most specifically Estonia. Who are of course also NATO members and so we will be drawn into any conflict there whether we are in the EU or not. Being in the EU seems to me of no consequence with respect to the Russian threat; our leaving will reduce the threat to us not one jot.

With regards the future direction of the EU, I am an unashamed European federalist and would wish for in effect a ‘US of Europe’ with its own currency and central bank etc. Idealism of course but in this century of ever faster communications, ever greater globalisation of trade and problems, the concept of the nation states blurs. My fear is that the resistance to this manifests as nationalistic isolationism which history generally tells up does not end well. So going back to reasonable assessments of risk, my judgment is for greater integration. I do not really fear this compared to the alternative.

A set of my wife’s grandparents were immigrants. Lithuanian.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

My dad was an immigrant Richard, what's more he was a deserter from the Anzacs!
David Whipp tells me that when he opened the Rainhall Road school this morning for the poll, there were ten people queuing. He's never seen this in a normal election.....

[PanBiker]

Quite a lot of paranoia and conspiracy theories about vote fixing being bandied about in local Facebook land. Some lighthearted but others with conviction. It always amazes me how many folk have no idea about which is their polling station, the voting process and what happens afterwards. Turnout will be interesting in this one.

[Wendyf]

More folk at the Kelbrook polling station than we usually see.

[Bruff]

The paranoia and conspiracies about vote fixing have been picked up in the national media, with reports of many folk turning up with their own pencils and pens to ensure MI5 don’t fix the vote for Remain (they have apparently already fixed the postal vote). The good Professor Cox neatly turned this on its head by tweeting that he had cast his vote with the polling booth pencil so that MI5 can rub it out if they need to.

While we can laugh at the daftness of these nuts, some have pointed out a more serious matter. The people that believe these memes are deliberately targeted by financial fraudsters and con artists. This is because they know that to buy into the paranoia and the conspiracies requires suspending any critical thought and common sense. Just the sort of people ripe for being duped, fleeced and conned. And it’s a demonstration of post-truth politics: an electoral result cannot be just that, there has to be a conspiracy or a story and in weaving this story it becomes a self-evident truth. If you want to know where that rabbit hole takes you, you could do worse than look to politics in the Middle East where conspiracies riddle the narrative like a cancer.

Very busy here this morning.

Richard Broughton

[David Whipp]

A strange polling day for me today. Instead of the usual pressure of a polling day operation (getting supporters out to vote), I've had a couple of meetings this morning and after opening up the polling station at the Rainhall Centre as Stanley reports, even spent time trying out a couple of industrial, wheel bin mounted, vacuum cleaners on the Town Square.

I have provided quite a few folk with factual info on where they vote etc, but have no idea if they are 'in' or 'out'. And I hope that some of my fb posts may have swayed some people in the right direction.

Checking facebook this afternoon, I've almost been in tears of laughter over the 'rubbing out the vote' posts. I think the best theory is the little people in each ballot box busy altering the votes before they are tipped out at the count... such mistrust is cause for great alarm though.

I'm particularly grateful to Richard's incisive analysis of the situation, and clearly our views are very much aligned. Thank you for your posts Bruff.

As I type, there seems to be a wave of confidence that Remain will be the outcome based, as far as I can see, on betting odds and late opinion polls showing a swing. I do hope they are right, but think everything is still to play for.

[PanBiker]

Self erasing pencil has also been mooted as well. Not sure if that one was bit tongue in cheek like my references to Minions and Kevin looking like a rubber. Much fun to be had in the banter.

I'm with you on the serious side of this though. It does show the lack of engagement in the electoral process for a lot of people which is why we elect governments on less than 50% of the potential vote. This 50/50 election might gee a few up, particularly as the aftermath either way is liable to be damaging to many of the political "elite". the clearing up will have repercussions far into the future.

I'm just trying to discourage the rumours and get people to engage in the process and actually make the effort to vote. We know it's important but unfortunately there are a lot that don't have a clue.

[Tizer]

We voted at the polling station in our small Somerset village at lunchtime and the officials said the turnout by that time was very good. I mentioned my concern about how we are no longer asked to present our polling cards or other identification. "What if someone had already come here and voted in my name and then I came in and wanted to vote?" The official looked a bit put out and said he would have needed to contact the main office for guidance. Then he said they had `a way of getting around it' but he wouldn't tell me any more. We chatted on and he told me about a colleague who had gone to Serbia to help invigilate in elections there. Apparently she found that when the officials were handing out the voting slip they looked to see the ethnicity of the person and if they didn't like them they covertly pencilled a cross at the bottom corner of the slip. That was enough to make the slip be rejected as `spoilt'.

I don't like the way we now have so many people voting very early by post. What happens if someone surveys them to find how they voted? It could influence how others vote later. Also, what if something dramatic happens (e.g. a revelation of corruption) between their early vote and the final polling day and they then wished they'd voted the other way?

Another of our local villages should get a good turnout - the polling station is at the pub!

[Tripps]

I think Serbia is on the list of candidates for accession. Wiki says there is a long way to go yet, but I don't see any mention of corruption as an entry condition.
What could possibly go wrong?

As David says - the betting now indicates a win for Remain. Paddy Power says Eight to One on, with leave at Eleven to Two. That's good for 'too close to call' Thoughts of do I even need to bother to vote? I will though.

[PanBiker]

This might be of use Tiz, it's a comprehensive read though.

Electoral Commission - EU Referendum

[Tripps]

" I will though."

It's darker than the Solar eclipse day, and rodding down (with lightning). It's only abot 400 yards away, but I'm not going out in this. Still three hours to go yet.

PS Done it. Took my Stabilo 'Exam grade' ball point pen though. They won't rub that out.

[Stanley]

Funnily enough the pencil in my booth didn't write first time....... Had to lick it and lay on a bit!
Up early to listen to the results programme. No clear indication yet. I heard the reports about the bookies and the movements on the stock market.... I hope they have it right!
I had a bit of a laugh about the letter from the 85 LEAVE MPs urging Cameron to do his duty and stay on as PM. I reckon this is a cunning wheeze to mollify voters who are marginal but leaning towards REMAIN to avoid political turmoil after the vote. I'm afraid they are going to get that whatever happens.
Sterling is falling against the dollar on the Japanese markets...... Westminster result is 2-1 for REMAIN.
Later, the vote leave contingent are very bullish.... Interesting comment from one MP that the main difference between this and a General Election is that if LEAVE prevail, the economic shock will be immediate and this could promote some interesting recriminations.

[chinatyke]

When I first logged on this morning the exchange rate was 9.85 rmb per GBP and the polls were indicating REMAIN would win, 3 hours later it is 9.27 with the overall outcome uncertain. Makes me £8500 on paper!

[Stanley]

A couple of hours later the LEAVE vote is beginning to look strong. See THIS for an FT report on currency movements issued in the last ten minutes which isn't reassuring. I can see the headlines now, 'Black Friday'!
Thought.... If there is a leave vote, what will the effect be on the EU? There will be some very worried politicians.

[PanBiker]

I don't think the turnout level being shown at the moment (71%) is very good for such a momentous decision. Larger than we elect governments on but still not great, I would have expected 85% or so. It's a strange situation as it's not like a purely political election, where is the manifesto if the vote does go for out? We are heading for interesting but chaotic times.

[Stanley]

Half way through the results and LEAVE is in the lead....
04:40. Total Welsh vote is for LEAVE. The BBC have just announced that their official position is that UK will vote to leave the EU.

[PanBiker]

Less than 80 results to go and a 4% lead for leaving on a 72% turnout.

[Stanley]

Scotland votes REMAIN and already there are calls for a second independence referendum.
Ireland, similar situation, calls from Eire for a referendum on a united Ireland because of the problems now raised by Brexit.
This is before the official result, what will it be like later today?
The financial markets are having a violent reaction. Many people are making money out of this fluctuation. Every cloud has a silver lining in the City!
A thought, how soon do the MEPs fall off the Brussels gravy train......

[PanBiker]

A lot of the commentators are in visible shock as the reality sinks in. Pound is taking a massive hit with the uncertainty, markets are predicting days of chaos. Many will be making a killing no doubt. What is Farage going to do other than being smug? Other than being what will be a former MEP he is just an ordinary bloke. Watching the BBC, Chuka has grasped the reality and is making the most logical comments. One things for certain they will all have to stop lying now and live with the result. Looks like it's forward with no plan.

[PanBiker]

Leave need just over 500,000 to win.