POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

See this LINK for Paul Krugman on Piketty debunkers.
See this LINK for Kenneth Clark admitting that the recovery hasn't worked its way down the pyramid yet. He sees this as the normal progression for economic recovery and says nothing about the measures that could be taken to cushion the blow. Of course he can't because the Tory 'recovery' is based on austerity bearing down most on the bottom 50% of the population despite the growing evidence and opinion that austerity is, in the end, self defeating. This is the major political question at the moment, the terrible inequality whereby so many people are ignored and virtually written off. I hate it! (In case you hadn't realised that!)

[Stanley]

There's an interesting internal argument in the Coalition but this time it isn't LibDems V Tories, it's between two Tory ministers, Theresa May and Michael Gove. It's getting quite heated. Gove says that in respect of the Trojan Horse school scandal that racism and terrorism is a Home Office responsibility. My says that schools are Gove's responsibility and wants to know why allegations published in 2008 and 2010 weren't acted on. One report says that 'sources close to Mr Gove quote him as saying that Mrs May is a good minister'. This has all the hallmarks of a poisonous little spat. Shouldn't they be actually cooperating to get to the bottom of the affair?
See this LINK for the really important news that the Queen has a new state coach.....
07:15. Just heard a report which says that it has electric windows!

[plaques]

The Queeen's speech to include a charge of 5p on supermarket plastic bags. The current usage said to be 8 billion a year. Of this charge 20% will be VAT. A total of £80 million. Of course they may not recoup all this money but still a nice little earner. Stealth tax do I hear you say?

[David Whipp]

We use and reuse carrier bags extensively in our household for all sorts of things. (Though our shopping mostly goes into long lasting bags.) I think we'll end up buying plaggy bags for a lot of the secondary uses to which carrier bags are now put.

[Big Kev]

We use and reuse carrier bags extensively in our household for all sorts of things. (Though our shopping mostly goes into long lasting bags.) I think we'll end up buying plaggy bags for a lot of the secondary uses to which carrier bags are now put.

Having read other posts on here today I'm suprised it's not your fault we're going to have to pay for bags

[David Whipp]

Bagger!

[Tripps]

I watched the Leader of the Opposition’s speech in the response to the Queen’s speech this afternoon. Or at least I tried to, but was distracted by the sight of a woman MP behind, and to his right who typed into a tablet computer throughout. They must have told her it was fancy dress – since she had come as a lady bird, with a red and black spotted pashmina .

The BBC seem to have a soft spot for the Labour party, and the director, helpfully, kept changing the camera shot so as to exclude this lady, and save embarrassment. Impossible really, as I guess she was told to sit where she was, so as to be in view. We heard part of Ed Miliband’s speech whilst looking at the back of his head for a while.

She did stop after a while, and I guessed someone had ‘had a word’ but she couldn’t resist the draw of twitter (I’d guess), and was soon back at the keyboard.

Quite spoiled the speech for me. I can't really remember anything he said.

Dennis Skinner's annual outcry was quite good this year. "Coalition's last round up"

[Stanley]

Good old Dennis, one of our better traditions....
Problem for Cameron was that as soon as he had finished his attempt to persuade the electorate that we still had a fully functioning Parliament, he had to go back to Downing Street to try to separate his two warring ministers, Gove and May, who seem to be starting an electoral campaign of their own! The theory is that they both want a Leadership election and the first phase of this is to demonstrate that Cameron can't control his party.
See this LINK for a Guardian report on the proposed secret trial of two people accused of terrorism. This worries me as it could set a precedent. I suppose the bar to public trial is the need to keep sources secret and I understand this but we will never know if this goes ahead. There must be a balance between effective policing and trial and public confidence in the system. The fear is that this could be seen as the thin end of a wedge and could lead us onto a very slippery slope. We have a glaring example of this before us at the moment, the Chilcot Enquiry where we are to be kept ignorant of much of the evidence.

[Bruff]

'Of course they may not recoup all this money but still a nice little earner. Stealth tax do I hear you say'

My understanding is that this money will be distributed to charities - it is not going to the Supermarket, nor to the Exchequer.

And who's paid for the new State Coach? I can't see how 'we' have as I've been led to understand 'there's no money left'. It must be the Monarch herself in much the way we buy a new car.

Few of Mr Skinner's heckles from the past:

Royal Mail for sale; Queen's head privatised.

New Labour, new Black Rod

I thought he might have heckled on the new State Coach this year. That might have been perceived as being a bit 'off', though apparently he has his fingers crossed when he swears the oath of allegiance. On this, I heard a novel explanation for not voting the other week. This person refuses to vote because as a staunch Republican, they cannot countenance anyone elected with their backing having then to have allegiance to the Monarch, and not the people. As I say, a novel one. Reminds me of John O' Farrell's book Things Can Only Get Better, where he tells of his fellow teenage leftie who refused to travel on the Jubilee Line........

Richard Broughton

[Tardis]

The plastic bag tax will raise VAT for HM Revenue & Customs. Numbers are available.

[plaques]

The plastic bag tax will raise VAT for HM Revenue & Customs. Numbers are available.

Earlier today I was getting ready to write "my apologies Bruff you are right". I had written my original post on instinct rather than fact. Now it would appear that Tardis is right. VAT link..
What a poor do when you think you are right, then wrong, and right again. I'd better shut up while I'm ahead. Its no wonder that I'm confused!

[Stanley]

Join the club P!
I have been heard to say that the train wreck that was the failure of the credit market in 2008 is not over yet. The announcement from the ECB yesterday that interest rates were being reduced to almost zero because of fears of deflation and them actually charging banks for holding their funds, a negative interest rate, do not foster any confidence in the overall EU economy which has a GDP of 0.2% and unemployment of 12% overall. No point us crowing about this because it will affect us eventually. As Harold said "events dear boy".
Interesting that the ECB, in freeing up money to be lent on the markets, stipulate that interest rates on mortgages should not be lowered, they see stoking the housing market as being dangerous and a source of imbalance. Remember Mark Carney's warning about our recovery being unstable and unbalanced, probably one of the most pertinent and universally ignored warnings to come out of the BofE in it's entire history. The one common characteristic of the global economic recovery is that it is being stitched together by 'innovative strategies', Banks injecting huge amounts of money by the back door in an attempt to waken up trade and growth. The question is, where is all this money going? Certainly not into the lower strata of the economy. Remember the recent reports of the rise and rise of the income of the top 10% of capital holders?
Next question.... How long can this con-trick continue before it collapses and reality dawns on the markets that there has to a complete revision of how we manage the financial system?
LINK to the Newark result. Tory majority slashed by UKIP by over 50%, Lib Dems sixth in the poll. There will be comment!
News this morning that Cameron has told the Cabinet Secretary to investigate the Gove/May spat. About time too! He has exposed himself to accusations of lack of grip on the party.

[Bruff]

Well you learn/are put right on something everyday and I'm always happy to be corrected. I like the comment under The Telegraph article to the effect that this is a cunning ruse by the Government to ensure seriously reduced demand for plastic bags - if you thinks yer monies going to the Government, you'll certainly not pay it.

Richard Broughton

[Tripps]

There's a bit of a paradox here. The currently most successful supermarkets (Aldi and Lidl) both already charge for plastic bags. Not many people buy them because they know the score, and bring their own.

Does this mean that they will have to donate any money raised from the sale of bags in future to charity? Not to mention the additional administrative burden to account for it all, and pay the VAT.

Who decides which 'charity' gets the proceeds? Charity is a sort of sacred concept these days, and beyond criticism. Don't forget Eton College is a 'charity'.

Could all this nonsense be avoided by changing to the American method of large brown paper bags? Would they be exempt?

[Stanley]

David, that's an interesting point! As for brown paper bags, I think some studies have been done and the conclusion was that in terms of overall effect on the environment they weren't much better than plastic bags. The plastic sticks in cotton buds are perhaps the most damaging pollution of all....
Fascinating to listen to the analysis of the Newark result. The old mantra was trotted out by the Tories about by-election results not being transferred to general elections. This is broadly true in normal circumstances but things aren't normal at the moment. I think this might be a weak reed to rely on.
See this LINK for the Lagarde volte face over the effects of austerity. Something wrong here because the majority of responsible economists still believe that it is not the most efficient way to stimulate an economy and produce activity and growth, the drivers of production, investment and manufacturing growth which feeds directly into the tax take. I suspect that politics is at work here. I can't believe that Lagarde has changed her core beliefs. Too much reliance on statistics and not enough regard paid to what is actually happening on the ground. If she was commenting on the EU mess would she still advocate austerity?

[Tizer]

Can we have one of these in England please?
7 June 2014, BBC web site
`Scots Land Reform Bill to be brought forward by government'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-h ... s-27735003

[Stanley]

Good link and a good initiative. What gives it increased weight is the fact that the land owners are shrieking with pain and complaining about unfair treatment. This is a component of what Piketty advocates, progressive taxation to level the playing field, in this case, land ownership. It's a very old idea of course, see the Levellers and Diggers in the Putney Debates during the English Civil War. Nearest we ever got to it was punitive Death Duties. When Lloyd George was fighting to get his 1910 budget past opposition in the Lords one of the most contentious elements in it was the proposal to have a Land Register which would have made it possible to have an efficient Property Tax. Closely related to the current debate about the unfairness of Council Tax banding and the idea of a Mansion Tax. Don't expect the Tories to support any such move.....

[Stanley]

See this LINK for Cameron's reaction after a very swift investigation by the Cabinet Secretary into the argument that broke on the day of the Queen's Speech between Theresa May and Gove.
Funnily enough I have just been reading about a similar matter in 1953 when some members of the Bevanite Group were proposing to break the rule on collective cabinet responsibility. Nye Bevan, always considered a firebrand and the most awkward of MPs stamped on them and told them that on no account was the principle to be broken. Nye was a rebel outside the Cabinet but a strict conformist when inside it. This principle is at the root of the present spat as it is damaging to the government. Notice that this does not involve any judgement about the substance of the allegations concerning the schools.

[Tizer]

Good link and a good initiative. What gives it increased weight is the fact that the land owners are shrieking with pain and complaining about unfair treatment.

It's also interesting in relation to the current fight over whether companies should be allowed to drill for oil and gas under other people's land and homes. There are people claiming that it's `their land' when the truth is that the drillers would be passing a 6-inch pipe 2 miles down below their property. It's a bit like claiming that you should be asked for permission before BT puts up a telegraph pole on the other side of town two miles away from your house.

[Stanley]

Nothing generates heat more than people's perceived 'rights'. I often wonder whether the law has changed. If you look in the LTP for Victor Hedges evidence he recounts having to go down the mines each week to measure the amount of coal taken out because the Shuttleworths at Gawthorpe Hall owned the mineral rights under a large part of Burnley. If that still applied the householders could have a case.
See this LINK for a report of William Hague being rolled out as a firewall for Cameron in the My/Gove affair. According to him it's a simple matter of party discipline and Cameron has dealt with it firmly and efficiently. Of course it's not. Both the contenders think they are candidates for the leadership of the party and have played fast and loose with a very sensitive matter, that of the schools, in order to further their personal ambition. Pure politics and it remains to be seen how badly (if at all) they have miscalculated and damaged their prospects. The Westminster Bubble at its finest!

[Stanley]

I heard an 'expert' commenting on prospects for the stock market and investment returns, she said it was good news but the question that sprang to my mind was "For whom?". See this LINK for a report on the increase in use of food banks and ask yourself some obvious questions.
Closely related is the question of domestic debt. People like the CAB are reporting rising levels of appeals for help and pointing out that these are only the families who have recognised the danger and are doing something about it. They say that this is the tip of the iceberg. All commentators agree that there is no relief in sight for the lowest paid as many of the cuts are still to come. Add to this the looming crisis of a rise in interest rates and the effect on mortgage repayments.
Amid all this we are told that the economy is booming but as I said above, booming for whom? Certainly not the hard pressed families at the bottom of the pyramid. This whole question is being ignored by the government beyond saying that welfare reforms will force more people into work and be good for them. The question in my mind is how long the lid can be kept on this and what will happen when it bursts into the open. I am certain of one thing, the Tories are desperate to keep this under wraps during the election run-up. In normal circumstances, given freedom to act, the BofE would be seriously considering raising rates but even though they are supposed to be independent, they are adopting a 'sticking-plaster' approach for as long as they can get away with it.
Thanks to Dennis Skinner for his interjection during a speech by Theresa May when he asserted that the truth was that what he was listening to was not a debate about schools in Birmingham but a leadership struggle in the Tory Party. May's response was that this was ludicrous and she wouldn't dignify it by responding. Really? Remember Dennis' comment that when Tories get into trouble they start by sacking the servants? Theresa's leadership prospects are perhaps not as bright as they were...
Mind you, I'll admit that my present reading of Richard Crossman's Back Bench Diaries is opening my eyes to just how secretive and devious politics can be.

[Tizer]

The trouble is that when the BofE does raise rates it will get even worse when people find they can't afford to pay the higher mortgage rates because they started when the interest was extremely low or they got used to it being low. Another danger flagged up recently is that when the mortgage rates increase there will also be a lot of buy-to-let mortgagees who will be caught out. They'll expect to be able to raise rents but tenants are already up in arms about high rents and the Government is considering blocking high rent rises. When they drop out of the market it'll spell even more trouble for those who can't buy a house.

[Stanley]

Exactly right Tiz and remember what the major factor in kicking off the fall of the house of cards was in late 2007 and 2008? This is a potential time bomb that needs defusing now, instead, by under supplying houses and letting house prices rocket a new stockpile of time bombs is being manufactured. As for rents, 70 years ago my dad owned a semi-detached house, 40 Norris Avenue in Stockport. He bought it off Mrs Nixon when her husband died suddenly to give her cash to live on. I used to collect the rent each week, 6/6! (33p) That shows how old I am!
At the moment I'm watching developments in Iraq and reflecting that one is allowed to be right before the event. I have been saying for years that when the Coalition took the troops out Iraq would be torn apart by religious and ethnic stresses generated by our meddling in the inter war years when we invented Iraq by combining the old tribal divisions of Basra, Baghdad and the Kurds in the north. I'm also remembering what Simon Schama said about us creating an open goal for Al-Qaeda who had no foothold under Saddam. The new militants whose aim is to reintroduce the Caliphate in Islamic countries is wiping the floor with the Iraqi army in Mosul and Tikrit and are well on the way to creating a separate state bordered by Syria, Turkey and Baghdad. Then they aim for Syria.... Big problem is of course that the US and the UK, the main drivers behind the coalition have no appetite for further intervention. The stability of the whole region depends on an Iraqi government that has lost control. Remember Dubya and 'mission accomplished!'.... And I heard Blair on the radio yesterday spouting platitudes about creating peace in the region.... You couldn't make it up!
Heard some later news and it looks as though the militants are looking to expand their control West towards Syria where they already have a foothold. To the NE of Mosul, the Kurds, who are better organised than Baghdad are watching and waiting, ready to repel any move against them. We could be looking at a re-shuffle of boundaries in the region.
See THIS for a report on the trouble Oxfam is in for stating the obvious and trying to blow the lid off the effects of 'austerity'. Doesn't square very well with Christine Lagarde's statement the other day does it. Another example of the government trying to keep the lid screwed down on inequality and the failure of their policies in terms of the wider society. Question is, how long can they succeed?

[Stanley]

See this LINK for a comprehensive report on what can only be described as the collapse of Iraq and the start of civil war. After all the reassurances of army and police training and the decision that they were fit for purpose the main problem is that both have collapsed and the only response from Baghdad is a call to the Mahdi Army to reform as an opposing militia and the government will arm them.
The basic problem is that ever since the forced integration of the separate kingdoms to form Iraq in the inter war years the importance of religious and ethnic divisions was never recognised. This is a Sunni takeover and an attempt wrest power from the Shia. Exactly what many of us forecast when the Saddam problem first arose. Say what you like about Saddam, tyrant and despot though he undoubtedly was, he kept the lid on all this and probably killed fewer people and caused less damage than the 'democratisation' of the country.
Once again, the arrogant stance that 'western democracy' can be planted in the Middle East and will blossom has been proved totally wrong. This simplistic view espoused by Dubya and Blair has failed totally and doesn't augur well for what will happen in Afghanistan when they are left to fend for themselves.
Many years ago I protested against the Iraqi incursion on historic grounds and said that instead of spending trillions on repression we would do better to inject the money into these countries as aid for improvements to their infrastructure, education and health. I still say that this was correct.
I wasn't aware until I read PE yesterday that there is a government watchdog called the Major Projects Authority (MPA). (LINK TO MPA REPORT)
The {PE journalists have dug deeper than we have time for and have revealed that under the 'traffic light' rating system used by the MPA, the new universal Credit scheme has been downgraded to 'amber' meaning it is in serious trouble and the programme to build two new aircraft carriers has a 'red' rating meaning it is an impending disaster. Funny how this hasn't all been flagged up more to the public. Thank God for Private Eye!

[Bruff]

My understanding is that the Universal Credit policy is in such a state, the MPA's assessment is that it is best now treated as a wholly new project, which is pretty good over four years down the line..........

Which is code for saying it simply is not working; which is a warning that it might never work as intended; which is why administrations past when they considered it (as they did) popped it in the box marked 'will not work'. Still, Mr Duncan-Smith will continue to plough his lonely furrow when in times past such calamitous a handling of a flagship project would have led to resignation or dismissal. His continuing in Cabinet is one of the great mysteries of current politics, so great in fact that the only realistic explanation is to ensure that the PM is not the dimmest person at the Cabinet table.

Sometimes a policy in which you have invested so much thought, which ideologically makes such perfect sense, which simply exercising common sense seems to make sense, quite simply won't work. No shame admitting that as there might well be very good reasons.

Richard Broughton