Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Tizer]

I'll repeat what I said elsewhere, I can't see the reason for any relaxation of any rules...

As I've mentioned this morning in the Politics thread, of the 34 Tory MPs who voted against the Government in the conservative rebellion on lockdown recently, 30 of them voted leave in the 2016 EU Referendum.

I think the gilt is starting to come off the Astrazenica vaccine gingerbread. Looks like the 'half dose was a mistake, which they then incorporated into the trial. Worrying that no one over 55 got the half dose - so they did split the group by age then? I read somewhere that the US authorities are unlikely to approve it.

This is where `science by press release' causes problems. The Oxford group had discussed the situation with the regulators as soon as the mistake was discovered. The regulators told them to continue the trial and report the results. They reported the data in a preliminary publication in the Lancet journal, a paper full of data and I don't see a combined % there. A press release said: `Preliminary data indicate that the vaccine is 70.4% effective, with tests on two different dose regimens showing that the vaccine was 90% effective if administered at a half dose and then at a full dose, or 62% effective if administered in two full doses.' I guess somebody thought (wrongly) that it was helpful to give the combined %.

As for the claim `that none of the people in the low-dose group were over 55 years old' that information is not yet in the public domain, as far as I can tell. The American may have insider information - he's in charge of the vaccine work in the US. We have to keep in mind that all this is just interim results, the trial is still underway and is modified to find out more about the value of a low initial dose.

[Stanley]

Why don't we just wait and see what happens when vaccination starts. That will be the best trial.
Too much fevered speculation.

[plaques]

The latest episode of 'Get Granny'.

People will remember that back in March when the epidemic was at it peak Granny became an endangered species. It wasn't Granny's fault being locked in a care home and vulnerable to infections that put her in this position it was all down to this being a novel virus that we had never seen before. Of course this requires one to ignore the previous SARS pandemic and the numerous reports on how to minimise a similar outbreak. Now four weeks behind the curve the governments belated action almost brought Granny to the point of extinction.
After a goodly period of lockdown which seem to induce an high level of amnesia it became policy to 'get out there and eat' and back in your offices support the economy. Granny became fair game again with similar results as before. Amazing really; who would have thought that?
Forget lockdown 3 tiers is best especially for those up north. But what about Granny? Forget about her she's nicely tucked away somewhere in isolation. Its the economy 'Stupid' and besides there's a vaccine on its way with the cavalry.
As predicted hospitals began to fill up again. Granny being at the van of the charge. So back on your heads its lockdown time again. but what about Christmas is the cry, Yes well we've got that covered, pretend its not a real problem because I've got my foot on the virus's throat. Enjoy yourselves but remember you must take care of Granny because she is and always has been our number one priority.

To continue, if she survives.

[PanBiker]

Look on the bright side, the onward attrition of the oldies is reducing the pension bill. I bet that benefit has been in discussions as well! We are expendable and just a drain on society as far as some factions are concerned.

[Whyperion]

I think one of them might be Trump's older son, Donald Trump Junior.

Naming your son after yourself, sure sign of a an egotist.

well , not the geneological corners here where so many first names are perpetuated, either direct lineage, of first (or later) progeny, including re-using the name when the first named child dies early, or taking each uncles names (so many in mine John begat William and William begat John and they all married Elizabeths or Marys , and they all had children with same names overlapping over 30 years of childbirth and the christing records dont record age of parent nor middle names - if any, plus late census returns are useless as the relationship to head of household can be miss written or transcribed or ages guesstimated or lied about, its only if you make some kind of contribution recorded in society records (even if it is failure to hold a dog licence court record) that one might say you have created your own special place in the world not depended on parents or children 1

[Whyperion]

We've got a lockdown.....Booo
Ends December 2nd.......Hurray
Back to tier three+ .......Booo
But there's a vaccine......Hurray
Not here yet................Booo
90% efficient................Hurray
Out by Easter...............Booo

Easter Sunday, 4 April 2021. Tin hats on Lads.

We miss the get together on Palm Sunday. Oh well a virus will never stick to a calender date to cease effectiveness.

The choice not to continue a 100percent across country lockdown is surely johnson's stubborness (or eagerness to attempt to appease all factions of the party), really it needed another two weeks . Geographical areas dont wholly make sense in analysis, but generally the closer packed the housing and the likelihood of those residents to know one another but affinity or family is not good for virus abatement. likewise the kind of work that cannot be done from home - or if there is dense family within the home also will have a similar effect. This plots quite nicely on the tier 3 map areas , and co-correlates with household incomes. But what i dont understand is the continuing increase in viral cases as if localities are tightly knit the virus should have passed around enough for the local immunities (if such thing exists - which it seems to), perhaps is the stories of people who had well isolated in lockdown 1 who just made one visit out before or during lockdown 2 that have been those that have increased the fatal incidences.

But for Christmas it is less as desire to celebrate a christian 25th Dec festival (I am happy with the eastern church and go with Jan 6th anyway), more a feasting saturnalia that i have mildly participated in - a tin of potatoes , a packet of stuffing and a small pudding are on order with the normal weekly delivery, it seems hardly worth the aggravation for a forced travel and meeting effort, either meet once and die , or have patience at least for effective vaccines to cut in in 2021 for a sustained general meeting , outside, in summer, after all we do have things like phones and the science fiction of easy video communications has come true too.

[Whyperion]

Couldn't agree more about abolishing Xmas, ignoring whingeing Royals claiming they are essential and working hard and the sheer stupidity of announcing higher spending on military and transport when only giving peanuts to Green policies and underfunding local councils.
At the same time, stupidity like this is happening and when found out is being ignored... (We have spent over £12billion on outsourcing testing alone)

Normally institutes have a lobbing friend in parliament or engage a firm that will do that for them . the obvious if writing to a departmental contact 9which may be out of date ) is to copy in The Minister, The Shadow Minister, The Institutes Local MP, other interested professional bodies.

[Whyperion]

Maz, your comment about following orders makes me think of Sweden. Yesterday I listened to a radio progamme about Sweden and heard the Swedes explaining that they have avoided the need for any lockdowns because they always do what the government tells them. They stress this is not because they're unable to think for themselves but that they have trustworthy politicians who tell them the truth, treat them like adults and let them think for themselves. I wish we had that in the UK!

Boris seems to keep going half into a Churchill impersonation, but without the actual relevant words to make one think he actually has a command of the understanding of the situation

[plaques]

Rebellion in the Tory ranks or is it a smokescreen to cover up the Brexit fiasco. The apparent disparity in the tiering system is causing people to question the logic behind it. I don't think there is any mal-intent in this its just Johnson's natural talent to cock things up. Once having made the wrong decision to promise that the total lockdown will be lifted on Dec 2nd he can't go back on his word so puts virtually the whole country on tier 3 instead. That's what I like about Boris straight forward and honest Its a good job he's supported by his stab in the back pal Gove the everything in the garden is lovely man.
The vaccine is said to be possibly (that word again) available early december. No problem there. Move it round to the various centres, tell the folk who are going to get it, give them the jab and bingo all done to plan. But what about Christmas I here you say when everything shuts down.
Bugger never thought of that, there's always something out of the blue that upsets your plans. That's life.

[Tizer]

There's a front page cartoon this morning showing a child facing Santa in his grotto at the local store. Santa's saying: `A child in your area has been misbehaving so I'm afraid you've all been put in the naughty category.'

[Tripps]

One Professor Lucy Yardley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, has said that - it's best not to spend more than 15 minutes in a shop or their is a risk of Covid infection.

Covid advice

I'd agree with that.

As usual the books in the background are interesting. She has Derronda's 'Of Grammatology' on her shelf. Oh boy ! Grammatology

For me that puts her into the super clever group, who not satisfied with the 'what' in a book want to know the 'how' and the 'why'. I wonder how she manages in the company of ordinary people, and if she watches Strictly ?

Weekends do drag a bit on your own, don't they? I bought something on ebay last night, mainly to see how close to the death you can leave your bid . New PB personal best. 10 seconds. Do I really need another personal organiser? Possibly not.

[Big Kev]

One Professor Lucy Yardley, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, has said that - it's best not to spend more than 15 minutes in a shop or their is a risk of Covid infection.

Covid advice

I'd agree with that.

As usual the books in the background are interesting. She has Derronda's 'Of Grammatology' on her shelf. Oh boy ! Grammatology

For me that puts her into the super clever group, who not satisfied with what's written in a book want to know how and why. I wonder if she watches Strictly ?

Weekends do drag a bit on your own. I bought something on ebay last night, mainly to see how close to the death you can leave your bid . New PB personal best. 10 seconds.

top job.

[Stanley]

What good posts, Ken telling it like it is and David exploring the further reaches of the web for us. I don't really understand grammar never mind grammatalogy! It shows the level my mind works at, the mention of an 'ology' brings to mind Maureen Lippman and that BT advertisement.
BTW. I agree David, 15 minutes in a shop is dangerous!

[Big Kev]

15 minutes in a shop is dangerous!

I've always thought that, pandemic or otherwise. I just don't like shopping...

Encouraging news about Covid-19 infection rates, a study has found a 30% drop since the start of the second lockdown https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55124286 with the north west showing a 50% drop. The study shows the highest rates are now in the Midlands.

[Stanley]

Yes Kev, in case I wasn't being clear that applied long before Coronavirus.

[plaques]

Its all a question of risk assessment and what would the individual do to minimise their own risk. That's when the problem starts swinging from one extreme, I don't know anybody who's caught it therefore I'm OK. to the other, there's a 90 year old lady in a nursing home in Somerset who has died from it therefore don't move out of the house. Quoting an 'R' value for most people doesn't mean a thing only that the total incidence is either going up or down. Then there is the opinion that those who catch it and survive add to the herd immunity and those that die drop out of the potential spreaders equation. Which corner the covid boogeyman is lurking behind nobody knows so you are back to.. I don't know anybody.......

[Tizer]

You're right, Plaques,about the R value. It's really a measure to be applied to large populations by epidemiologists but isn't helpful to individuals. It's being used at present by the government so they can say `Look how naughty you've been' or `Look how clever we've been'.

Stanley: `15 minutes in a shop is dangerous!'
Kev: `I've always thought that, pandemic or otherwise. I just don't like shopping.'
Me: `Me too, if I stay longer than 15 minutes I might buy something!'

I agree with this chap...
`Covid-19: Don't 'take brakes off' Covid measures, says leading scientist' LINK
`The UK would be making a "terrible mistake" to relax Covid measures just months before vaccines are expected to take effect, a leading scientist said. Prof Peter Openshaw, a government adviser, said the nation should not "take the brakes off" at this stage "when the end is in sight". He said infection rates, numbers in hospital and deaths were all too high. But he said recent trial results showed "for sure that this is a virus we can defeat with vaccination"..'.

We've just had a more personal experience this morning of the other side of the covid pandemic and lockdown - the effects of mental stress. I often mention my cousin and her two teenage daughters living locally. Her mother also lives locally and alone - she's in her 80s and her husband died 15 years ago from cancer. The mother had a mental breakdown after the death of her husband when they still lived in Blackburn so she moved here to be near her daughter's family and gradually got over the breakdown. During last night the daughter got a phone call from mother saying someone was trying to break into her flat. It sounded like the delusions again so the emergency services were called and responded quickly. Mother is definitely troubled again, seeing invisible people etc and is now being assessed by her GP but can't be left alone. A tricky situation with covid and lockdown so we're having to wait and see what the GP suggests. There must be many people who are finding these present conditions mentally challenging.

[Stanley]

I'm with Ken, as with so many things in life your chances of survival rest in your own hands. I don't see dealing with Covid as being any different than driving for a living. You work out where the dangers are and avoid them.. Same applies to this bloody virus.
As for the sudden burst of optimism induced by the vaccines, be very wary! The time to start clapping hands is when they have arrived and been in use long enough to prove they can protect. Don't get me wrong, I am not anti-vax just anti celebrating too soon. I shall be in there like a shot when offered a vaccination.
Like you Peter I agree with Prof. Openshaw, don't throw away the advantage we gain by holding back now by relaxing vigilance too soon.
Later, I have just been listening to Anthony Fauci on World Service describing the latest position in the US. The numbers he is quoting are biblical. I think he must be very glad to have Trump taken off his back. He talks a lot of common sense. How many lives could have been saved if he had been listened to and supported. Trump has a lot to answer for!

[Tizer]

Fauci must have been frustrated by Trump's `special coronavirus advisor, he who advised not to wear masks, but at least he's just resigned...
`Dr Scott Atlas - Trump's controversial coronavirus adviser - resigns' LINK
Among other things: `He sparked further controversy last month when he tweeted "people rise up" in response to new restrictions imposed in Michigan. His tweet came just weeks after it emerged the state's governor, Gretchen Whitmer, was the subject of an alleged kidnapping attempt by militia members opposed to virus mitigation efforts.'

There's more recognition now of the possibly long term lung damage due to covid-19 infections but at least a new scanning technique helps us detect the effects...
`Covid-19: Lung damage 'identified' in study' LINK

My cousin (see yesterday's post) was taken last night to an ancillary unit of the local hospital which provides for elderly people suffering mental disturbances. She's been there once before so is familiar with it and they look after people well. She's in good hands. Her daughter is waiting to find out if she'll be able to visit her mum. Daughter is, of course, badly upset having had to try to help her mum continuously throughout the day until the unit agreed to take her in. She's shattered this morning and having to pull herself together before going in to do her job at the main hospital.

[Stanley]

Scott Atlas.... It's like Marvel Comics in real life. His former boss is sat there in the best hotel in the US, the White House, being waited on hand and foot and you have policy strands like that still having an influence.
I listened to the news item about lung damage and reflected that vaccine or no vaccine I don't want to have to fight the virus off, I shall continue to self isolate for a long time yet!.
I can't begin to appreciate what your Cousin's daughter went through Peter. Do you ever wonder if something like that could happen to us? One of my defences is constant daily and in some cases nearer to home, hourly contact with my kids. If something goes wrong I want them to smell a rat immediately but I have never really thought about the affect something like that could have on them.
I was talking to my doctor a few days ago and he was telling me his father (same age as me) had died quietly during the night after a normal day. I told him that was how I wanted to go! Can someone please arrange it when the time comes?

[plaques]

Covid: Does the NHS really need protecting? This must be the most confusing analysis I've read from the BBC for some time. NHS BBC Setting out to show how many beds are potentially available to treat Covid patients and then immediately demolishing the numbers to show they are not really available after all. Confusion sets in with the first chart of beds available in 2019 against 2020 ( 101,598 against 88,591 ) with no explanation why this reduction has taken place.

One of the challenges the NHS has faced is that it has fewer doctors, nurses and beds per head of population than many other western European countries.

Common sense says that severely ill patients cannot be moved hundreds of miles because a bed is available in Cornwall. Hospitals are doing their best to avoid cross contamination, cleaning, separation etc which all contribute to reducing the beds and the services. No mention is made of nursing staff who are faced with treating patients who's history is unknown when they are brought into hospital.

Then there are MPs like John Redwood.

Tory MP John Redwood has been vocal in calling for the Nightingales to be used, accusing those making dire warnings of trying to "scare" the public. Between them they could provide care to several thousand patients.

This type of comment assumes it is morally right to allow people to catch covid and face possible death just because they can make beds available and it would be good for the economy if we ignored this little difficulty.

Whatever we think of bumbling Boris this time he is right in following the advice of the scientific advisors.

[Tizer]

Whatever we think of bumbling Boris this time he is right in following the advice of the scientific advisors.

I'll second that! As Michael Gove rightly said on the radio, if you don't like being locked down or unable to run your business don't blame the government, blame the virus!

Here's a BBC `explainer' article on the Pfizer Biontech vaccine, how it works, who gets it etc: LINK

[Stanley]

Couldn't agree more Ken. As for Redwood, I have never forgotten what one of my friends said about him. He was a senior civil servant in Wales when Redwood was Welsh Secretary. He told me that Redwood was dangerous.
I've just heard the CEO of one of the biggest groups of care homes on 'You and Yours' saying that his organisation has no testing kits and no idea where or how to get them.

[Tripps]

The whole strategy regarding care homes seems to be to protect the home from a visitor who has the virus. I am totally concerned with the opposite.

[Stanley]

Worth a read I think. (As is MD on the virus in this week's edition of PE.)