ENERGY MATTERS

[plaques]

There are so many factors affecting our economy that its almost impossible to put them into nice tidy slots.

This is and extract from Sky news in the read more section...

Food prices in August rose at the fastest rate since 2008
UK to enter recession this year, British Chamber of Commerce says

It comes a month after the Bank of England forecast that the UK would slip into a recession at the end of this year, which would last until early 2024, mainly due to the increasingly high cost of living.

Last week, Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a massive handout to help people cope with rapidly-growing energy prices, which could ease inflation slightly, but will come at a cost estimated to be at least £100bn.

I notice that the energy supply companies are offering up another plan to cut back on the immediate increase in prices as long as they can regain the profit they have deferred until a later time. Initially this may seem to be looking after the customers welfare but the momentum in Europe is to have windfall taxes where they would lose all their exorbitant profits completely. Also my view but not voiced in the media is that the companies could be seen as siding with Putin by putting an extra squeeze on energy just when he is weaponizing it in order to stop the West from supporting Ukraine.

With Liz Truss backing the energy companies is she in affect backing Putin? Are we heading towards an ultra right-wing communist dictatorship?

[PanBiker]

Are we heading towards an ultra right-wing communist dictatorship?

A contradiction of terms there Ken I think. Surely it would be a right wing fascist dictatorship. We are halfway there already I fear.

[plaques]

With Liz Truss backing the energy companies is she in affect backing Putin? Are we heading towards an ultra right-wing communist dictatorship?

A contradiction of terms there Ken I think. Surely it would be a right wing fascist dictatorship. We are halfway there already I fear.

Yes Ian you are absolutely right, I pondered on that phrase myself a bit oxymoronic. I was trying to convey the idea that our almost fascist government was willing to support the Russian invasion through energy prices while giving the public impression that there was nothing they could do.

[Stanley]

I can understand why you put it like that Ken. We are so used to seeing the Tories taking their ideas for action from either the Labour economic policy or what they would do if they were in government that the distinction between Right and Left becomes blurred. After all Sunak was accused of being a Socialist when he brought in the 'furlough' concept. It's a product of the confused minds of the Tory strategists at the moment. Faced with the unexpected they have to respond with what was the unthinkable.....
What is clear I think is Truss's ambition to be Thatcher Mk II. Unfortunately she hasn't understood that times are different, things have changed and she can't possibly know what Thatcher would have done in today's circumstances so she is reduced to Thatcher lookalike stunts like being in the turret of a tank..... Plus the fact that I fear her critics in the Tory Party may be right and perhaps she is a 'bit dim'.
In terms of energy she has taken the Tory line of allowing the energy giants to make profit and pay dividends while she subsidises the energy price using borrowed money that will eventually be paid back by those same customers in their role as tax payers. (I think I have got that right!)
Meanwhile.... I sit here watching temperatures drop and being thoroughly confused by bits of paper dropping through the letterbox telling me about money I am being given, yesterday it was one from the Council saying I was getting another £28.....
(If only they had listened to Nye Bevan and followed his advice....)

[plaques]

The problem with being rich is that people keep giving you more of the stuff. The detail costings are missing. I bet they are.
A report from the Resolute Foundation.

Rich households will receive twice as much support aimed at reducing the cost of living than poorer households next year, a think tank has claimed.

The Resolution Foundation said if the government cuts National Insurance and limits energy bill rises, richer homes will get £4,700 in 2023, compared to £2,200 for the poorest.

A typical household energy bill will be limited to £2,500 annually until 2024.

The think tank said "details and costings" were missing from the plan.

The huge support scheme could cost up to £150bn, but Prime Minister Liz Truss has refused to put a figure on it, saying "extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures".

[Tizer]

The Times ran this story on Saturday but I haven't seen it or heard it anywhere else. Another case of things being hidden by big events. Apparently Neo Energy has told its customers not to believe Octopus when that company contacted them to take over their account. Lying and scamming seems to have become the norm in Britain - after all, Government ministers do it!...

`Keep giving us your money, failed supplier Neo Energy tells its old customers' The Times
`An energy supplier has been sending out emails to households demanding that they keep paying it — even though it has lost its licence and its customers. UK Energy Incubator Hub, which supplied power under the Neo Energy and Northumbria Energy brands, was stripped of its licence to provide energy for multiple failures including not responding to information requests by Ofgem, the energy regulator. The company went into administration in July and its 3,000 customers were transferred to Octopus Energy under a “supplier of last resort” process overseen by Ofgem. Octopus was in touch with all affected customers asking them to cancel their direct debits and set one up with Octopus instead.

NB. The owner of Neo Energy had a previous energy company that failed; and one previous to that which also failed. Why are such people allowed to continue?

[Stanley]

The whole energy market is buggered. This not only applies to the trading and pricing models but the individual companies as well. Many have gone bust and in my experience the biggest of them, BG is so badly managed as to be a joke. The only reason I am not ditching them is that there is no clear alternative at the moment.....
So I watch and wait.....

[Tizer]

`US shale bosses tell Europe: ‘There’s no bailout coming’: Executives say they cannot increase oil and gas supplies in time to stop winter energy crunch' FT
`...US shale executives sitting on vast oil and natural gas reserves that could be used to alleviate a European energy crunch say they will be unable to step up supplies quickly enough to prevent winter shortages. “It’s not like the US can pump a bunch more. Our production is what it is,” said Wil VanLoh, head of private equity group Quantum Energy Partners, one of the shale patch’s biggest investors. “There’s no bailout coming,” VanLoh added. “Not on the oil side, not on the gas side.”

[Whyperion]

Anyone noticed (was it in the Guardian?) Shipping company with at present 5 vessels doing a handy physical arbitrage trade in Liquidfied Gas from the US to Europe. they have more ships in build betting on a price difference on Gas (mostly as an oil extraction by product in the US ) between the US/Dollar and Europe Prices / EUR/£

[Stanley]

Peter, I seem to remember that another factor limiting US exports of gas was the lack of liquification facilities and ports to handle the ships.

[Whyperion]

Between them the DWP / BBC and EDF are confusing me.

Firstly Money In
(BBC Website) Cost-of-living payments
Despite household bills and prices in the shops going up, for some households there is some help on the way.

People on disability benefits will receive a one-off cost-of-living payment of £150 from 20 September.

More than eight million low-income households on means-tested benefits will also receive £324 ( is this on the same date ?)(date IS later by a couple of months for those on tax credits)


1 Oct - Energy price guarantee comes in

The government's energy price guarantee replaces the existing energy price cap and will limit the amount that suppliers can charge for each unit of energy.

The first instalment of the government's £400 energy rebate will start to arrive about now too. A discount of £66 or £67 will be applied to households' energy bills every month until March 2023. How you get it depends on how you pay your bill - ( All customers with a domestic electricity meter who pay by direct debit, either monthly or quarterly, or by card will see an automatic deduction off their bills. ) (those on Oil systems might have different arrangements coming - but I suspect putting the credit on electricity will get you a cash rebate at some time off you electric provider if you have low electricity use)

Those with "smart" prepayment devices will see an automatic monthly top-up added to their account, meaning they will have to add less credit to their meter for the total energy they use.

Nov/Dec - £300 pensioner cost-of-living payment
Households that receive the Winter Fuel Payment - which is worth £200-£300 and is paid to nearly all homes with at least one person of pension age - will receive an ADDITIONAL one-off £300 in November or December. That should cover nearly all pensioners across the UK. (? presumably the ones it doesnt cover are those that are not state/basic pensioners on a qualifying date ?)


EMail today from EDF

"While the price guarantee ensures the typical household pays no more than £2,500, that’s still around a 25% increase against the previous price cap. Your £400 discount will cover much of this increase. But as it’s paid straight into your bank account, most people need to increase their Direct Debit by at least 25% "

Standing charge (pence per day) Safeguard Assist Capped (E7) Increases by 1.02p per day
Unit rate DY (pence per kWh) Increases by 10.44pence (that is a 31percent Increase) to 44.82
Unit rate NT (pence per kWh) Decrease by 2.61pence, this might be a EDF mainly thing as they source energy from Nuclear running 24/7

BUT
Our cheapest overall electricity - tariff - Over the next year, you could save £501.01 if you choose to pay by Pay As You Go (and their website does not tell you what the tariff information label on that tariff is , nor gives you an option to choose it ).

So you can see my confusion particulary on the £400 over six months and the surprise that the effective basic Direct Debit payment is higher than the Pay as you go in advance rate supposedly.


The standing charge MIGHT change if the legislation on green levies is changed next friday ? will that become effective before october ?

[Stanley]

I was wrong about the heating kicking in last night.... No signs as yet. I must have generated enough heat in the house yesterday by my veggie cooking!

[Tizer]

Our outdoors temperature dropped to 5C last night which will be a shock to the wildlife. It's not been less than 10C since before summer and much of the time a lot higher than that. A squirrel was out burying nuts in our garden. Our plant pots will sprout ash trees and horse chestnut trees next Spring!

Meanwhile, some news on the human energy crisis...
`Germany takes control of stakes in Rosneft oil refineries' LINK

[Stanley]

I forced my heating to kick in yesterday just to check all is well. It worked perfectly and I am forced to recognise what I knew to be the fact at the end of the heating season last year.... That my new thermostat is calibrate slightly different to the old and that 18C on the old one equals 20C at least on this new one so I have set it at 20C and will be patient. It hasn't kicked in this morning......

[Big Kev]

I switched the heating on this morning as it was only 17 degrees in the lounge, that's the only room in the house without a TRV so the thermostat is usually in there.

20220918_084201.jpg

It's set at 19 degrees until 10am and then 18 degrees until 5 o'clock, when it goes back up to 19, and then down to 16 at bedtime (10:30). I've also turned down the boiler temperatures for both heating and hot water. Heating only kicked in for 30 minutes, until it 'tripped' the stat at 19 degrees, residual heat in the rads took the room temperature up to 20 and it's nice and warm in here now.

[Stanley]

I have to report that I have just realised that my heating has come on in the last hour. I shall leave everything alone for 24 hours while I assess whether I need to lower the 'stat at all. The house core temperature is at 19C at the moment. I'd like to keep it that way.

[Stanley]

No more CH since. I must have good insulation! Being a Mid Terrace house helps, only two outside walls. That makes a big difference. Bank House at Foulridge is a detached building and they tell me it was almost impossible to keep it warm in a hard winter.
PS. I spoke too soon! 45 minutes later the heating kicked in and brought me up to a comfortable temperature....

[Big Kev]

Heating kicked in for around 30 minutes at 06:00 when the the programmer 'ups' the stat from 16 to 19. It must have been reasonably warm today as it's not fired up since then.

[Stanley]

From what I can see 20C on the thermostat equals 19C house core temperature so that's all right. I shall leave it exactly where it is.The buggers will make the standing charges even if I don't use any gas!

[PanBiker]

I received notification from Octopus of the charges for gas used over the last three months yesterday. Strangely the starting reading was directly from the smart meter. Both of which have mysteriously started working again, been doing so for about 18 months. I assume there will have been some kind of remote update to the software? The last reading was estimated though so I thought I would check it to see how near they were. Pleased to report the estimate is about bang on for the last date I reckon.

On another matter, I read today that my nice supplier Octopus is going to take steps to counter the October increase in standing charges for all their customers who are on the dual fuel standard variable tariff that they offer, (that's me). They are the first supplier to do this and from October will reduce the standing charges to keep them below the existing rate. It's costing £40 million to mitigate and surpass the increase.

To quote Stanley comment in another thread, not all suppliers are "bastards", some are much better than others.

Offer is still there for anyone that wants to swap.

https://share.octopus.energy/young-ibis-685

[Whyperion]

I have had bills in the past where it is marked as estimated - but it is just about spot on to the smart meter reading, so I wonder if it is to cover them f they think the reading they are getting is uncertain and different from a "predicted" usage. ?

[Big Kev]

Not looking forward to October 1st, price changes to 24 million meters puts a bit of pressure on the IT systems. It'll keep me out of mischief for a bit

[plaques]

Not looking forward to October 1st, price changes to 24 million meters puts a bit of pressure on the IT systems. It'll keep me out of mischief for a bit

You've surprised me there Kev. I would have thought these smart meters would have taken the reading, sent it back to HQ and then returned a price for the amount. Guess I'm out of touch with these systems.

[Big Kev]

Not looking forward to October 1st, price changes to 24 million meters puts a bit of pressure on the IT systems. It'll keep me out of mischief for a bit

You've surprised me there Kev. I would have thought these smart meters would have taken the reading, sent it back to HQ and then returned a price for the amount. Guess I'm out of touch with these systems.

They have to have the correct tariff so it shows on the customer's IHD how much they're spending.

[Stanley]

Ian, I know I can swap if I want to but I reckon now is not the time.....