OneGuyFromBarlick

For erudite, read intelligent.... Anyone who is capable of joined up thinking knows how dangerous the situation is.
We are very close to 150,000 deaths and are having up to 150 deaths per day.... Simples...

Plaques: `Are the erudite more careful than Kev's unwashed?'
Yes.

Ignore the media hype in the following link but note Gilbert's important message : We cannot allow a situation where we have gone through all we have gone through, and then find that the enormous economic losses we have sustained mean that there is still no funding for pandemic preparedness. The advances we have made, and the knowledge we have gained, must not be lost. All too often that happens.
`Sarah Gilbert: Next pandemic could be more lethal than Covid' LINK

A couple of folk in Japan I think have contracted the Omicron variant while in hotel isolation. CCTV shows that their door has only been opened to deliver food and supplies using accepted Covid PPE rules so they think the virus has been carried by air currents into the room.

PanBiker wrote: ↑06 Dec 2021, 11:08 A couple of folk in Japan I think have contracted the Omicron variant while in hotel isolation. CCTV shows that their door has only been opened to deliver food and supplies using accepted Covid PPE rules so they think the virus has been carried by air currents into the room.

I read the same story Ian, it was Hong Kong. Bloomberg reported it, be interesting to see if the story has any legs to it...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... sion-worry

Peter, I listened to her and thought what good common sense she was speaking. She is right, we should be planning for the next pandemics now, not waiting until (shock Horror) people start dying!

Thanks Kev, I saw the report on my phone this morning, read it but didn't clock the venue properly. In the right parish anyway.

Today's Sun's answer from Doctor Zoe Williams to that tricky Covid etiquette / safety question -

I want to have friends over on December 23 but my vulnerable ­parents are due the next day.  How can I keep them safe?

A) Why not party   outside? A fire pit or garden heater may help. Stock up on hand warmers, too, and get blankets out. Dust off the garden furniture, add cushions, pop some candles in glasses and you’re sorted. Maybe serve up some mulled cider and jacket potatoes.

Sounds a lot of fun. . . .

Tripps wrote: ↑06 Dec 2021, 16:08 Today's Sun's answer from Doctor Zoe Williams to that tricky Covid etiquette / safety question -

I want to have friends over on December 23 but my vulnerable ­parents are due the next day.  How can I keep them safe?

A) Why not party   outside? A fire pit or garden heater may help. Stock up on hand warmers, too, and get blankets out. Dust off the garden furniture, add cushions, pop some candles in glasses and you’re sorted. Maybe serve up some mulled cider and jacket potatoes.

Sounds a lot of fun. . . .

and cold

A better plan might be to have the vulnerable ­parents inside on the first day and the (presumably) less vulnerable `friends' outside the following day?

BBC latest: Omicron could become the UK's dominant variant within weeks, says infectious diseases expert Prof Paul Hunter. He estimates it's likely that there are already more than than 1,000 cases - three times more than the 336 confirmed on Monday

PanBiker wrote: ↑06 Dec 2021, 11:08 A couple of folk in Japan I think have contracted the Omicron variant while in hotel isolation. CCTV shows that their door has only been opened to deliver food and supplies using accepted Covid PPE rules so they think the virus has been carried by air currents into the room.

Just about possible I suppose, but the article doesn't seem to say what country they came from. Isn't it more likely that they were infected before arrival in Hong Kong, and developed symptoms during their isolation. That after all, is why they do quarantine.

My geography of Southern Africa has had a boost though. I learn that Pretoria or Tshwane is the main town of Gauteng Province, and that Swaziland is now known as Eswatini. Not a lot of people know that.

The advice to party in the garden is on a par with much 'expert' advice at the moment. You'd think that after 18 months of pandemic people would be getting a handle on it. Evidently not so.... I shall not be partying outside!
I think I heard Paul Hunter say that Omicron is now transmitting endemically, that is you don't need a connection with SA to get it. That being the case it will naturally become the dominant strain. Let's hope that, as reported by some. it is a milder strain.
Later... the WHO has advised against treating Covid patients with blood plasma from recently recovered Covid patients. They say there is no evidence that the treatment is effective.

Big Kev wrote: ↑06 Dec 2021, 12:24

PanBiker wrote: ↑06 Dec 2021, 11:08 A couple of folk in Japan I think have contracted the Omicron variant while in hotel isolation. CCTV shows that their door has only been opened to deliver food and supplies using accepted Covid PPE rules so they think the virus has been carried by air currents into the room.

I read the same story Ian, it was Hong Kong. Bloomberg reported it, be interesting to see if the story has any legs to it...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... sion-worry

Not seen any more development on this story, I wonder if the reported nfection had anything to do with ventilation in the hotel?

Perhaps they were already infected when they entered the hotel.

Stanley wrote: ↑07 Dec 2021, 04:07 Later... the WHO has advised against treating Covid patients with blood plasma from recently recovered Covid patients. They say there is no evidence that the treatment is effective.

But that must be a mistake; Donald Trump says it works and he called it a `beautiful ingredient'.

People are asking why the 'official' figures for Omicron are so much lower than the suspected actual figures. The reason goes something like this.-- Only 1/3 of the labs can check for omicron and then they only test 20% of the covid samples. Also since its a longer testing cycle it could take 3 days to get the results they are then 3 days behind the curve. I suspect that whatever the official numbers are multiple it by a factor of 10 to get a feel for what's happening in the big unwashed world.

There seems to be a lot of public outcry around plan B, to be honest it just seems like common sense to me.

From Friday 10 December, face coverings will be mandatory for most indoor public venues including places of worship, theatres and cinemas, as well as in shops and on public transport.

Masks will still not be needed in hospitality settings such as pubs or restaurants, nor in venues where it is "not practical to wear them" (for instance, where exercise or singing takes place).

From Monday 13 December, people should work from home "if they can".

From Wednesday 15 December (subject to parliamentary approval), people will need an NHS Covid Pass - or a negative lateral flow test - to gain entry to:

Nightclubs
Indoor unseated venues with more than 500 people
Unseated outdoor venues with more than 4,000 people
Any venue with more than 10,000 people

This 'plan B' is certainly a distraction exercise, despite the rise in the number of positive test results the impact doesn't seem to be rising at the same rate. Over the last 7 days
Positive tests up 11%
Deaths down by 0.8%
Hospital admissions up by 0.8%
More data is still required but it's starting to look like the SA reports of mild symptoms show promise. Let's hope so.

All I have to say is that it's been obvious for about ten days that more mask wearing would be good, the experts were saying so. Why have we waited until Friday?

Stanley wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021, 03:53 All I have to say is that it's been obvious for about ten days that more mask wearing would be good, the experts were saying so.

I think we have known that since shortly after they became mandatory the first time.

Stupid to relax the rules on that as it is one of the easiest benefits to maintain. Stupid is as stupid does as Forests mum would say.

The BBC report about a sister on a Covid ward at Newcastle's Royal Victoria Infirmary...
The number of patients with the virus in the RVI has been falling - down from 70 to 40 in the past month as booster jabs start to make a "massive, massive difference," according to Jenny. Many of those being admitted are now unvaccinated. They often ask to be given the jab - though by then, it's really too late. Hindsight is a wonderful thing," she says.

Indeed Peter. And the more widely that message is spread the better.
I get tired of hearing people equating rejection of vaccination with personal freedom. Apart from anything else it is a purely selfish position to take. Wearing masks and being vaccinated is as much about protecting others as yourself. If you reject it you are condemning others to whatever your fate is.

`Javid advised to take ‘stringent’ Covid measures within a week, leak reveals: Exclusive: Health officials say urgent action needed to avoid mass hospitalisations and overwhelming the NHS' LINK
`The Guardian has seen leaked advice from UKHSA for Javid marked “official, sensitive” saying: “The key point is that under a range of plausible scenarios, stringent action is needed on or before 18 December 2021 if doubling times stay at 2.5 days. Even if doubling times rise to around 5 days, stringent action is likely still needed in December.” It adds: “The rapid spread of Omicron means that action to limit pressures on the health system might have to come earlier than intuition suggests.” Its calculations suggest that even if Omicron causes a less severe hospitalisation rate of 1% or 0.5% compared with Delta’s 1.5%, then “stringent national measures’” would be needed by 18 December at the latest.'

`On the current trajectory of 2.5 days doubling time, and without any further restrictions, the document warns that Omicron cases could be at 248,000 cases a day by 19 December. It also stresses that the figures are not a projection but an estimate of Omicron prevalence and doubling times seen in the UK so far.'....

Is there any evidence yet of the impact of Omicron on people? I've not found any yet.

I don't think there is Kev, certainly not in sample populations that typify what exists in the UK. I think the advisers are looking at the speed of spread and the infection rates and saying that we must apply worst case measures. Did you hear the expert on Today yesterday who said that anyone who misses Omicron Variant will be extremely lucky or a recluse.
I intend to miss it!

The news media all repeat the statement that two jabs plus the booster jab is 75% effective. That's ambiguous and I don't know what they mean. Is it that of 100 people exposed to Omicron only 25 will be infected? Or that they'll all be infected but only 25 will become ill? Or that they'll all be infected but the impact on their health will be only 75% of what it would be without the vaccination? It would help if whoever writes or says these important statements kept in mind the dangers of ambiguity. [Rant over]