Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Big Kev]

The BBC are reporting people hospitalised with the Omicron variant in London
Covid: First people in UK hospitals with Omicron variant
By Doug Faulkner
BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59627188

The article then goes on to say
It is not clear if those people who are in hospital with Omicron have been hospitalised because of the virus or for other reasons.

Another scaremongering headline based on assumptions. Be good to see some facts...

[Tripps]

Andrew Neil says

Nadhim Zahawi tells Trevor Phillips and Andrew Marr that there are now people with Omicron in UK hospitals. But that is not the same as saying they’re in hospital because of Omicron.


I suggest that no one yet knows how many cases of the Omicron variant there are, and if and when it becomes more widespread, how many hospitalisations and deaths will follow. That information is simply not yet available. We will know more in a few weeks time. It is still only two weeks ago that I first ever read the words Omicron variant'.

However last (several) time the Government were slow to take action, and were criticised for it. They are now under fire for taking action too soon.

[Tripps]

Stop Press - We have moved to Alert Level 4. Good to see our world beating vaccine programme being so sucessful.

I'm reminded of my favourite punch line (again). "System going well - send more money"

Stand by your sets at 8.00 pm. The Prime Minister will give a demonstration his dead cat throwing skills.

"Now let the b*****s vote against me, he didn't say.

[Big Kev]

Youngest offspring reports the booster booking system is very busy, it kept refreshing every 15 seconds but perseverance paid off. He's booked. Eldest offspring is still trying, not heard from middle one.

[Tripps]

So on Sunday morning we have a vague statement by the Minister for Education Nadim Zahawi, about people being in hospital with the Omicron variant. Widely criticised as being fairly meaningless at this stage, and on being questioned, he was unable to back up the statement with any facts.

By 8.00 pm it is an widely reported as an accepted fact, and Government policy was changed to take it into account.

Stirring stuff - He actually said this "Get boosted now to protect our freedoms and our way of life". "Get boosted now"

I propose to do repeated smell and taste tests, on a bottle of Chile Malbec this evening to be safe.

[Big Kev]

I propose to do repeated smell and taste tests, on a bottle of Chile Malbec this evening to be safe.

Sounds like a good plan to me

[plaques]

Over 18's now eligible for their third vaccination. All good stuff but 1 million per week over Christmas is a big ask. With omicron of unknown nature the hospitals could be swamped even if the relative severity of the illness is small. BUT, if it can spread through the double vaccinated at the speed which it is now doing industry would be brought to a halt just through isolation alone. Our GDP would go down the tube making our sovereignty miracle just a touch more difficult to achieve.

[Whyperion]

Boris's Speeches, sometimes wander into the world of Churchill. At first I thought the 8pm announcement was Boris going to say he was resigning, but instead it turned into one of the fantasy speeches that Paul Eddington in Yes (Prime) Minister would go into. Seemed to be aimed more at his backbenchers than the average UK resident. Get Boosted Now sounds like Get Brexit Done, (and anyway the booking system wont be (fully) working until Wednesday). Given the reticence of a few months ago to consider a top-up vaccine for a few selected groups after six months, Boris is less following the science than chasing it frantically. Overall for Boosters there seems no great reluctance for most people to request one, the problem has been a suitable slot in a useful place for all that need them (Wales in its Rural bits is very behind on older persons unable to get out - and some local surgeries were not offering the vaccinations).

With respect to the uncertaintly of isolation showing up covid - virus has been carried by air currents into the room, similar appeared to happen last week with an aircraft full of people supposedly clear on PCR tests before boarding, but testing positive on entry into the netherlands. This Omicron does seem to escape early dectection. For those that (hope) as a virus it is generally less fatal , its the multiplicity of speed of spread x larger numbers of persons that remain a worry. Do I agree with some tory backbenchers that the Government is reacting too quickly, I dont think so, it is better to be wrong - even if the present message is work from home but travel to party. If we get to early January and it is panic over then fair enough.

Today's Sun's answer from Doctor Zoe Williams to that tricky Covid etiquette / safety question -

I want to have friends over on December 23 but my vulnerable ­parents are due the next day.  How can I keep them safe?

A) Why not party   outside? A fire pit or garden heater may help. Stock up on hand warmers, too, and get blankets out. Dust off the garden furniture, add cushions, pop some candles in glasses and you’re sorted. Maybe serve up some mulled cider and jacket potatoes.

Mum lives in a third floor flat , has poor circulation and feels the cold. Happy Christmas

My geography of Southern Africa has had a boost though. I learn that Pretoria or Tshwane is the main town of Gauteng Province, and that Swaziland is now known as Eswatini. Not a lot of people know that.

Richard Osman on Pointless mainly.

[Stanley]

"Our GDP would go down the tube making our sovereignty miracle just a touch more difficult to achieve."
I think that's happening already Ken. Did you note that last month's figures have had to be 'adjusted downwards'. Who'd be an economic forecaster in these exciting times.
I think that once again in the rush to say something, the various agencies and spokes persons are jumping the gun and putting their mouths in gear before they have any evidence. David's strategy sounds like the correct one to me.

[Big Kev]

ITV News reporting 'First UK Omicron Death', a very misleading headline. The first line in the actual story reads 'died WITH Omicron'. My understanding is they're not the same thing, they could have been run over by a bus and died with Omicron. I'm not trying to play down the potential severity of it but the media, and the government, need to repor facts. I'll get off my soapbox now.

[Tizer]

I see that the web sites for booking vaccinations and for ordering lateral flow tests have both crashed. On the radio they said people had been reporting that even when the vaccination web site was working it was difficult to get a booking because it kept throwing them back to the home page. This is what happened to me when I tried to book my booster months ago and then later when I booked Mrs Tiz's booster. Both times I used the feedback page to report the problem but they don't seem to have taken any notice of complaints.

[Big Kev]

My youngest offspring booked his booster last night, it took him a few attempts as it was timing out before he got his DOB and NHS number in. He put his details in a notepad and copied and pasted into the booking site, that fettled it.

[Whyperion]

I see that the web sites for booking vaccinations and for ordering lateral flow tests have both crashed. On the radio they said people had been reporting that even when the vaccination web site was working it was difficult to get a booking because it kept throwing them back to the home page. This is what happened to me when I tried to book my booster months ago and then later when I booked Mrs Tiz's booster. Both times I used the feedback page to report the problem but they don't seem to have taken any notice of complaints.

What happens is that when the slots for the day are filled it is not really re-setting (poss in your cache), to show place/date/time unavailable. A possible tweak might be to have green and amber signs against the times or days to show if they are relatively free, or only have a few slots available.
South Africa still reports Omicron less fatal compared with Delta ( but the reasons for this seem a bit unclear - obviously you cannot infect a control person with two strains over time and see who dies first ?!)

Also the PM did make it clear that the increased booking and jab capacity would not be in place in England until Wednesday, but implied (ALL) walk-ins would be available from Monday (somewhat rash as of course they did not have enough product in stock).

" Tizer » Sun Dec 12, 2021 11:29 am
The news media all repeat the statement that two jabs plus the booster jab is 75% effective"

Health Secretary now saying with 3rd Jab you get 70percent effective against symptomatic infection.

Labour (or was it David Davies) questions why was an increase in vaccinations not planned earlier. Health Secretary replied that NHS were at the time concentrating on backlog of elective surgery. (which is a strange binary choice of NHS funding and resources).

[Stanley]

Kev, could that timing out be a ploy for cutting down on the number of applications? I've had that problem dialling on the landline
You are also correct in your comments about the reporting of the Omicron death. A good example is the fact that I have cancer and will die 'with' it but most likely not 'of' it. That's the gamble I have taken by deferring further treatment indefinitely.
As for Johnson, he is glad to have something he can be executive about that isn't to do with his current woes!

[Tizer]

A good example is the fact that I have cancer and will die 'with' it but most likely not 'of' it.

The Today presenter this morning had to keep pressing Dominic Raab to clarify his answers for similar reasons. She mentioned Boris Johnson's statement that everyone would be able to get a vaccination by the end of the year and asked Raab if this was so. He gave an equally evasive answer. She kept pressing him to say that everyone who wanted a vaccination would have had it by the end of the year. In the end he said Yes, but I suspect he really doesn't see the difference between his statements and that of the presenter and just agreed in order to escape the interrogation. Let's see what the end of the year brings!

[PanBiker]

Sally has just used one of the new lateral flow kits we got yesterday. They seem to be a better design, I noticed they were a different manufacturer from the last batch we had.

First change is that the liquid for the tests is pre-loaded in the test tube and is sealed with a tear off metal tab. This is much better than the separate individual vials of liquid that were in the previous kits which seemed to lose some of the contents over time and sometimes not leave enough to do the test.

Second major change is that the test swab is much shorter and is only used to take a nose swab. Previous kits had a long swab and you had to do your tonsils first and then your nose. Good news for those with a violent gag reflex like Sally. You would think someone was choking her during previous tests!

Third change is that you get the result in 15 minutes rather than the 30 of the previous kits.

The ones we have are Flowflex, SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Tests.

Al in all a much better design with a much easier testing method.

[plaques]

I'm finding it almost impossible to put any real meaning to the percentage numbers being quoted. Putting to one side the definition of 'with it' against 'of it' the first problem is to decide what degree of protection the vaccines give. Depending which report that is looked at this varies from 70% up to 90% for three vaccine cover all rolled up in statements that it will reduce serious illness and deaths by this amount. With a starting quantity of 100 people if these numbers are taken to be applied in series then 80% (average of 70 to 90) would be mild to OK, but putting 20% in hospital. From these hospitalisations 20% or 4 people would die. If the projections are correct at 200,000 infections per day this would equate to 4,000 deaths per day. We are currently seeing 1,000 deaths per week from the Delta variant. These are frightening numbers and one can only hope they are wrong. Someone has to get to grips these projections and make moves to protect the population and accept that businesses may need additional support to get through this pandemic.

[Big Kev]

This looks encouraging but I can't vouch for the validity of the item. There are media reports that Covid-19 hospitalisations and deaths are decreasing in South Africa, be good if it's genuine.
https://fortune.com/2021/12/13/omicron- ... -surfaced/

[Tripps]

Yesterday 'The lad from Leigh' Grand Master Nigel Short tweeted - regarding the London Chess Classic,which ended on Sunday 12th

Nigel Short @nigelshortchess· 13 Dec
The Covid "body-count" at the London Chess Classic is starting to resemble the Battle of the Somme...

Today - just one day later - he says

► Show Spoiler

nigel short.jpg

PS I was just thinking it is a bit reckless for 500 - 600 MPs to gather tonight at close quarters, for the big vote - even with 'face coverings'. I now read that at least six MP's have tested positive in the last couple of days. More must surely follow - and soon.

All Red Zones will be lifted tomorrow from the travel restrictions, Sajid Javid seems to say there's so much infection around now that a few more don't matter. Those in hotels at more than £2300 a pop must however complete their sentences.


PPS I found Wes Streeting to be quite impressive as Shadow Health Minister. He's had a grim year though, and credit to him for getting through it all.

In May 2021, Streeting revealed he had been diagnosed with kidney cancer, and would be stepping back from frontline politics while he received treatment for it. On 27 July 2021, Streeting announced that he had been declared cancer-free, following an operation to remove one of his kidneys.

[Whyperion]

I'm finding it almost impossible to put any real meaning to the percentage numbers being quoted. Putting to one side the definition of 'with it' against 'of it' the first problem is to decide what degree of protection the vaccines give. Depending which report that is looked at this varies from 70% up to 90% for three vaccine cover all rolled up in statements that it will reduce serious illness and deaths by this amount. With a starting quantity of 100 people if these numbers are taken to be applied in series then 80% (average of 70 to 90) would be mild to OK, but putting 20% in hospital. From these hospitalisations 20% or 4 people would die. If the projections are correct at 200,000 infections per day this would equate to 4,000 deaths per day. We are currently seeing 1,000 deaths per week from the Delta variant. These are frightening numbers and one can only hope they are wrong. Someone has to get to grips these projections and make moves to protect the population and accept that businesses may need additional support to get through this pandemic.

I am trying a bit to avoid the numbers, as one day never makes a meaningful trend , but, reported Infections yesterday were just shy of 60,000 . (estimated by some to be about a third of true numbers). Deaths reported at 150 ( but that sort of averages 100 over the three days of the weekend reported period). I dont think its 1000 deaths a week but it looks like 700+. The overall number of vaccine doses done was close to 560,000 so even if the million a day seems a bit far out, the NHS is doing better at getting out 500,000 a day if enough people turn up. Scotland suggests only seeing three families a day in homes ( with a use your common sense exception for Christmas Day). Has anyone got flu case numbers (are the oldies really out partying - or having a cafe lunch - every day ?) Will the omicron uplift the infection numbers OR will the increase fall back a bit as the WFH comes in, really we will only know come the 28th December. The big economic downside- apart from hospitality (Pubs, Clubs and Restaurants), might be the travel industry again.

[Stanley]

I heard Raab Peter and wondered what a Justice Minister and Deputy Prime Minister does to pass his time. It seems that one thing is to wait for his turn to defend Johnson and the government in the morning round of interviews. I attach no importance to anything he says.

[Tripps]

Today Nigel says memorably

Yesterday, in an act of egregious ultracrepidarianism, I told the Consultant my reasons for believing I have Omicron and not Delta ( he agreed, by the way), He then proceeded to tell me about game 6 of Carlsen-Nepomniachtchi, so I guess we are even.

Thos who have been keeping up on here, will have no problems with the difficult words. . . .

[Whyperion]

BBC Website today
"The prime minister said the government was not cancelling Christmas events by restricting gatherings or closing pubs and restaurants, but cautioned people to think carefully about the socialising they did."
However we know the Health Sectretary and Chris Whitty are suggesting stay at home. Seems that the treasury dont want to pay for staff salaries , lost rents etc, see the companies going bust by Dec 31st one feels.

Numbers today- a few (165) deaths report, nearly 79000 cases, but hospital beds occupied down 14 , a rather impressive 650k of booster vaccines despite some of the queue headlines in last nights news broadcasts, plus ongoing first doses up to 34k, showing that some folk whom had been reticent are now a bit panicked- by persuation or the passed legislation one does not know.
It might have been missed by some but apparently some vulnerable persons (presumable immune difficult persons), can get a 4th booster depending on times of past vaccine administration.

[plaques]

It has been offered up that the reason that omicron is considered to be a milder infection is the hospitalisation in South Africa is in lower numbers than projected. Unfortunately one has to take into account that the South Africa's hospital care system is funded by medical insurance taken up by the individual to be paid in full on admittance and claimed back afterwards. A 40% discount is offered for low paid workers. I would imagine this system would deter many from seeking treatment until it becomes really serious. It may be that omicron is less serious but one has to be careful in comparing hospitalisations in the NHS with a private funded system.

[Stanley]

And that's the sort of system that enlightened capitalists who know more about finance than we do say is best for us here. Keep your eyes on the buggers!
We await the tsunami of Omicron infections that all the experts are promising us....
"England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty predicts that Covid-19 “records will be broken a lot over the next few weeks""