POLITICS CORNER

[PanBiker]

I have been watching it through the night between dozing on the settee, exciting stuff. President May's day are now numbered and even more importantly the Labour Party position is now better than before. We can play the waiting game now and make the Tories wriggle over leadership and Brexit. The next few days (or maybe hours) will be very interesting.

Locally the party is on the up. 18 months ago branch meetings were hardly quorate with 3 or 4 members. The last 12 months have seen the membership swell and meetings of 20 + members a regular event. As a first major election for the local party our team operated well and our candidate Wayne Blackburn managed to slash Stevenson's majority from 5000 to 1200, his days are numbered also. Wayne did very well from a snap election and a four week campaign. There were a lot of younger voters that turned out which is all good news and shows that they can be properly energised if engaged by the policies.

BBC exit poll was almost bang on. We haven't won but I am happy, only a matter of time.

[Whyperion]

Some wards in Pendle and Burnley have some of the highest infant mortality rates in the UK.
Aside from a terrible tragedgy which you might have read of in the LT yesterday (it was sort of related to someone the wife knows), I get the feeling that Burnley and Pendle don't do well from Health Service coverage, Burnley Hospital has a lack of specialists if it is meant to Serve Pendle as well as Burnley, and Airedale at Keighley is not the easiest to get to by public transport and of course lies in a different county, the services it provides no doubt are adequate, but the informal feedback I got from Barnoldswick folk attending out-patients, etc was it was hardly an outstanding experience. I wonder too though if there is any ethnic correlation to mortality rates, or if it is an incomes or quality of household food budgeting? The other factor used to be the likes of smoking in the domestic environment.

On National Politics Con+Dup less SinnFein who dont attend Westminster (Bad day for SDLP and the 'irish problem' still won't go away with brexit border too!) gives TM a theorectical working majority, SNP won't carry the oppositional weight they had and Labour still cannot clearly get over any policys where they matter - to the supposed un-biased media - so Lab seats won more on a hope/protest factor, the key mid-shire/new towns remain Con (*), and will any boundary changes kick in before next election. If there is an election within 6 months, can Lab get its act together, will SNP change tack, and overall I cannot see Con seats going up in number particulary and so any 'new' parliament prob more hung than what on numbers the present one looks like. (*- actually glancing at some locations it looks like Hard Brexit supporters went to Con, so poss 10 to 20 winnable Labour seats in England , Lib Dems may have not won back the SW Eng constituences, but lot closer this time round so again quite easy to see 3 to 4 Lib Dem re-gains in the future).

Zac Goldsmith (was he a remainer ) takes Richmond Park off Lib Dems by 45 Votes ! - local one to one of my friends)
TM says she is not resigning, do we get a new Queens Speach ?

Kensington count suspended There's still no result in Kensington, west London, after two recounts !!

BBC Radio Derby's political reporter Chris Doidge tweets that the result from High Peak - which Labour gained from the Conservatives - is "a bit baffling". "Conservatives won 6 of 8 county council seats there a month ago... ...and then lost the Parliamentary seat to Labour on a 14% swing. What happened!?

Probably a pensioner revolt and if this is Buxton there is a university there too.

[chinatyke]

Hard to see what this does for Brexit and our standing in Europe.

More uncertainty and chaos. The markets hate uncertainty.

[Bruff]

It really can’t be emphasised enough how calamitous this is for the UK and the Brexit process and Mr Clegg has more or less nailed it on R4 a few minutes ago. Whatever we might think of Mr Clegg given his time as DPM on Brexit he is one of the few, very few, politicians who are absolutely telling the country just what the consequences of a lot of the rhetoric about Brexit means in reality. Art50 is ticking, the clock cannot be stopped without the express agreement of all the other 27 members of the EU. Art50, which was largely drafted by a UK lawyer, is quite deliberate in requiring all 27 to agree as this gives all the power to the EU. Obviously. If you leave any group, club, union whatever voluntarily the power with respect to the club etc. does not defer to you. It was also almost certainly drafted this way on the assumption that no sane country would ever trigger it, an assumption with respect to the UK we know as wrong. This is a problem entirely of our own making. Entirely. And we all sadly, no matter our views, own this problem because that is the trade-off in any nation state and democracy: you cannot abdicate the collective responsibility (something the Germans know very well).

The behaviour of our politicians and far too much of our 4th estate has been appalling. We need a re-set and that needs to start now. I care more about the re-set, not who or what might emerge. But we have been duped, lied to, patronised, insulted for too long and some honesty and some education and some hard truths (and too, not a little hope) must now be forthcoming.

Deep breath..

So, that’s out of the system. Labour held Wirral West. Good. Majority went from 400 to well over 4000. The Tory did himself no favours in his final pitch where he promised to protect Wirral’s grammar schools. Whatever your views on grammars, at a stroke that showed he’s not bothered about the 80% of kids who don’t end up in one. An astonishingly bone-headed intervention. We are better off without his type in the legislature. Merseyside remains firmly and overwhelmingly red

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

"The behaviour of our politicians and far too much of our 4th estate has been appalling. We need a re-set and that needs to start now. I care more about the re-set, not who or what might emerge. But we have been duped, lied to, patronised, insulted for too long and some honesty and some education and some hard truths (and too, not a little hope) must now be forthcoming."
I've been watching and thinking Richard and I think you have put it in a nutshell. The hopeful sign I think I see is that Jeremy Corbyn campaigned well and managed to energise the voters, in particular the young who have been patronised for far too long. I heard one commentator say that he has single handedly changed the face of politics. That's a big claim but there may be something to it. I have said all along that the reason the Tories mounted the hate campaign against him to an unprecedented degree was that they saw they had reason to fear anyone who spoke plainly and honestly, traits that, as you identified, have been totally absent from the Tories in general and May in particular.
As for your assessment of Brexit, again I think you are spot on. An EU spokesman made it quite clear this morning that local political difficulties in the UK are of no interest to the EU. He pointed out that it wasn't top of their agenda and as far as they are concerned we have entered a process, the clock is ticking and as the 27 have all agreed on the timetable and the negotiating position nothing will change.
At the moment we are hearing brave words from the Tories about forming a stable government under May and carrying on. On the other hand we hear voices like Lord Turnbull saying that she is not up to the job, hasn't got the skill-set and has to go. He is influential and not alone and this makes me wonder if the Tories can hold together and not go into a paroxysm of criticism and revenge on May who has manoeuvred them into yet another disaster. We shall have to wait and see.
Let us not forget that all this was started by a weak PM taking the easy way out when faced with an internal revolt (The 'cat fight'!), Cameron's Catastrophe, the referendum on the EU, and scuttling when it blew up in his face. This on top of disastrous economic policies since 2010.
I still believe that what triggered May into this snap election was a gamble that the polls were right and looking at the train wreck hurtling towards us in the shape of a rapidly worsening economy because of bad policies and Brexit it was the only chance of retaining power. She got it wrong both in the way she campaigned and the original belief in the polls. Unfortunately, as you point out, the price will have to be paid by all of us. All we can do is watch and wait and see what happens. The one thing I am certain of is that we have no certainties. The 'unknown unknowns' are in play. So much for 'strong and stable'.
An afterthought before I go and have a sleep. Is there a majority in the House in favour of any kind of Brexit?

[plaques]

on the assumption that no sane country would ever trigger it, an assumption with respect to the UK we know as wrong. This is a problem entirely of our own making.

Exactly. But 'Strong and Stable' thought she could bluster her way into making people think that if she shouted at them loud enough and long enough in the same way as holiday makers do when the are abroad then it would all be tickety boo. Expect the papers and the Westminster Bubble to put all the blame on Corbyn. It was his fault for doing too well! Meanwhile behind closed doors, "voices like Lord Turnbull saying that she is not up to the job". How many Tory PM's has he to see off before he gets a turn?

[Tizer]

It really can’t be emphasised enough how calamitous this is for the UK and the Brexit process and Mr Clegg has more or less nailed it on R4 a few minutes ago. Whatever we might think of Mr Clegg given his time as DPM on Brexit he is one of the few, very few, politicians who are absolutely telling the country just what the consequences of a lot of the rhetoric about Brexit means in reality.

We too listened to that Clegg interview and nodded - someone who knows what he's talking about when he explains about Brexit. As Bruff says, one of the few politicians who do.

On the results of the General Election I'm pleased that May has been knocked off her perch but I'm worried that we're in a bigger mess than before. I'm also annoyed with Labour and Corbyn. Unlike those who support Corbyn I don't believe the fall in the Tory vote was thanks to Labour - it was due to May making a hash of everything. And if Labour had got sorted and found itself a better leader they should have been easily able to knock out the Tories altogether and win the election, this was their big chance. There are a lot of people who've been long-time Labour supporters who've said they wouldn't vote for Corbyn. Likewise, there are Tories who would have been driven by May into the arms of Labour but Corbyn was a big step too far from their point of view. A better Labour leader could have had their votes too.

[plaques]

And if Labour had got sorted and found itself a better leader they should have been easily able to knock out the Tories altogether

Its probably part of Corbyn's attraction that he isn't a traditional 'smoothie' politician. Not a great orator, tells it like it is, you don't have to go away and analyse what has been said like some forensic examination. It also depends what you mean by a 'traditional' labour supporter. How old have you got to be? Blair pulled the party so far to the right that they were almost indistinguishable from the centre Tories. Perhaps the centre, which everyone is coveting, has moved to the left. The majority of the Labour MP's now being behind the curve.
Mrs May is now left in charge of a dogs dinner Brexit. Parliament could go belly up at any stage of the negotiations. The economy is turning south as the stock market would say and without some serious U-turns on austerity its hard to see how she can last another 5 years. .

[Tripps]

There were a lot of younger voters that turned out which is all good news and shows that they can be properly energised if engaged by the policies.

Possibly something to do with the promise to abolish Tuition Fees starting this September.

[Whyperion]

Bribe?

There are a lot of people who've been long-time Labour supporters who've said they wouldn't vote for Corbyn.

But probably not as many as the media seemed to hype up, given how actual Lab winning votes stacked up. Dianne Abbott returned with a thumping majority up from previous! It is more that Libs have not got the West Country support and a few central area / SW London seats split Lab/Lib voting allowing a tory through.

But for the queen of the soundbite , job done, assuming here own party does not revolt. Leaving out any NI party she still has a 4 seat effective majority, so it is hardly a minority govt. SNP have had their strength removed, tory gains in scotland give may some boasting rights. Biggest con is that tories have 48.9% of the parlimentary seats(318) but only 42.4% of the UK vote (= 276 seats).

I think the media (esp, BBC) have mis-reported Corbyn constantly , again today in saying Corbyn calls for TM's resignation,(in big bold shouty letters) yet his actual comment was more considered, quiet of an analysts commentary that she should consider her position, something one would expect a political leader to point out, and he could hardly publically criticise his lab party that if they had backed him more, they could have probably picked up another half dozen seats, off the tories.

[PanBiker]

Possibly something to do with the promise to abolish Tuition Fees starting this September.

Almost certainly Tripps, the policy is still there. It's now up to May to get a bill through parliament with her new crutch the DUP. No getting out of an open border policy within Brexit there then, they will not want to pay the price so reckon she's on a hiding to nowt.

The SNP is prepared to work with "others with progressive policies" no doubt other groups will also be being talked to as well. We will end up with one minority government or the other. Difference of course is that the alternative to the Tories have actual policies that it would appear people like. Next few weeks will be very interesting, or the alternative is to get ready for another General Election.

[Whyperion]

From what I recall David Davies did not want to discuss Brexit terms in public, this was a mistake, as so much on the election was, 'Trust Us' rather than 'This is what you are voting for' As for parties working together, this was a UK election, and unless there are exceptional circumstances, the need for NI, or Scotland, or Wales minority parties as participation in the HoC on many UK areas.

[Stanley]

I watched Shami Chakrabarti being taunted by Tories about Labour losing the election last night. It struck me that Labour supporters are a lot happier than the Tories and their recovery was the biggest swing since 1955. This was a strange election and I think that the Tories have less to celebrate than Labour. Don't forget that they are the titular government and the economic problems still haven't gone away. The Irish DUP 'crutch' could well be a very uncomfortable one. They are going to be very demanding and some commentators were pointing out that their help could be a poisoned chalice when decisions have to be made about Northern Ireland, a deeply divided province.
Never mind who 'won'. Labour came out of the election in far better shape than the Tories and should start campaigning today for the next election which won't be so far away. May is attempting to carry on as if nothing had happened when in truth, everything has changed. She will find this out very shortly.
On a personal note, I'll bet I slept easier last night than TM......

Later at 06:10. Solitary walking in a deserted town is good for thinking..... I was going over the events of the last 36 hours and looking for a cohesive explanation of what has happened and what the consequences are. On the surface we have a damaged but still assertive President May getting 'her government' together with the help of the DUP and 'going forward together'. You'll not be surprised to hear that I don't think it is anywhere near as simple as that.
The Westminster whispers are that she is isolated and rejected by many of her party and that there are the usual suspects laying the poison down and looking for a change of leadership. I noted that she made no changes in the Cabinet and this would seem to bear out that she doesn't feel confident in her authority. I get a distinct feeling that what we are seeing is a brave face and by no means a confident woman. Another rumour is that she had to be talked out of resigning yesterday by her inner circle, the same people who encouraged and advised on her disastrous campaign style. If she goes they will get the chop also because many see them as the real villains.
I have another parallel strand of thought. I am sure that there are honourable members of the Tory Party who are even more intelligent than us and these people can see clearly the message that was embedded in the vote on Thursday, that the electorate have reached the end of its tether. They don't want any more austerity, being told that there is no money tree and being patronised by a bunch of remote toffs who think they know better than anyone else and regard the damage and misery in society directly caused by their policies as necessary collateral damage in a political and economic war to support their libertarian brand of capitalism and wealth distribution. My problem is that I see no sign that May has absorbed these facts. She is still talking about Brexit as though nothing has changed and belittling Labour as an incoherent mob when the fact is they outfought and out-gunned her on every aspect of the election. Forget about the DUP being the new king-makers, the credit belongs to Ruth Davidson in Scotland, leader of the branch of the party that saved May's bacon and who is now sounding like the most confident Tory woman on the block. I believe that May is too insecure and hidebound to make the necessary adjustments in policies that are needed to bring the Tories into line with contemporary political thought and this applies to many of her more right-wing backbenchers. She referred to any coalition that Labour might form as a 'crackpot coalition'. Ironical because her proposed alliance with the DUP is fraught with even more problems.
So, what do I think is going to happen. Bear in mind that Paul Junker issued a statement last night that he didn't expect anyone to be coming to meet the EU for talks in ten days, he thinks that the UK government is broken.
In respect of Brexit the concept of 'the bloody difficult woman' laying down the law in Brussels is dead. This is going to dawn on industry and the markets soon and increase the uncertainty that is already damaging the economy.
At home, the backbenchers, via the 1922 Committee and the Cabinet are in the driving seat and are going to impose their collective will on the putative president because politically she is fatally isolated and damaged. As soon as it is possible she and her kitchen cabinet are going to be tossed on to the scrap heap, this is something the Tories are very good at. Further, when Parliament convenes again she and her policies are going to come under attack from a reinvigorated Opposition who can scent blood. It is not going to be a pretty sight. What the DUP haven't perhaps realised yet is that they will take their share of flak as well for their collusion with the Tories.
I shall stop. This is I think a fair picture of what is happening. All I can say with certainty is that unless there is the biggest U-turn in history, this government is doomed and can forget another five years. May will be kept in post as long as it suits her enemies (and there are many of them) but is herself on notice. Finally, until this all plays out and we get another election, this is bad for UK PLC. Once again a Tory PM has damaged our medium and long term prospects. I hope the electorate realises this.....

[Tizer]

Jim (Lord) O'Neill was given a few minutes near the end of the Today programme this morning but that's all he needs. Basically, his message was that the politicians need to stop `playing their stupid games' and get on with sorting the real issues like the NHS, education etc. He was followed by Bronwen Maddox and a couple of other commentators. Each were asked at the end for their final comment in a few seconds. The one who made the most significant comment said "If May goes who would they replace her with?"

[Tripps]

A few thoughts

Mrs May made the same victory speech outside Number 10 which she had prepared for a win with a large majority. She then gave an interview, in which she gave the same answer at least five times to at least five different questions. This is now enough evidence, I would suggest, that she is now sectioned under the mental health act.

The future stability of our Government now depends on the cooperation of the successors to late Rev Ian Paisley's party. I can't see that ending well - leaving aside his late conversion to being a 'Chuckle Brother'. I watched the hearing in Stormont recently, when the present leader Arlene Foster was accused of some sort of complicity in a scheme which paid a subsidy (more than the cost of the fuel!), to users of 'green fuel' long after it was found that the more fuel you burnt, the more money you made. Many had heaters going 24/7 in unoccupied barns etc.

The governance of Northern Ireland fell, partly over this issue, and remains unresolved as yet. The decision was postponed due to the recent General Election. So the architects of this unresolved shambles, now have an important say in the way I am governed.

Ruth Davidson whose star is rising, now seems to think that the most pressing matter on the agenda is that of gay marriage, which they don't care much for in N.I. and she has already sought assurances from Mrs May. Interesting to see what seems to be her main concern, in the governance of the nation.

Finally - Is it entirely possible that in an age of instant 24/7 communication, blogs, social media etc etc, that the job of P.M. is too difficult for anyone to do?

I usually try not to take life too seriously, and to get a smiley in most of my posts, but not this one. . . .

[PanBiker]

The UK Government is the official mediator or broker of the talks between the various political groups in Northern Ireland and the Republic. How's that going to work when the DUP will be pulling the strings of the mediator?

[Big Kev]

It's all a bit of a mess and they're still trying to carry on as though all is fine and dandy...

Even though a 69% turn out was high, 100% would have, perhaps, given a clear majority for someone. Apathy is still alive and kicking.

[Tizer]

I know it's a frequent comment on OG but....whatever could go wrong?

Tripps, if it's any consolation at least you're not in the middle of moving house! Cue manic laughter form Tizer, hahaha...

[PanBiker]

Interesting, on the current political situation, this has just been shared by one of our ILP comrades, the original posters name is at the top with relevant credits at the bottom.

Shelley Burgoyne
3 hrs ·

I'm probably repeating old news but in case people don't know yet;

Two points;

The DUP can't vote on English laws (due to the EVEL law passed in 2015) this meant the Tories only have a majority when it comes to Brexit and the DUP promised a soft Brexit in their manifesto (due to the border with Ireland). This means the Tories can't vote through their manifesto without the consent of other parties MPs (and it looks like a lot of their own MPs will vote against anyway).

If it becomes evident they can't pass bills then there will be a vote of no confidence and there will be another election (hence Boris getting ready to oppose her) -technically there can't be a coalition with the DUP due to the peace agreement and our promise of neutrality, so there is a "supply of consent"- so the Tories are a minority government.

I share this because I want people to carry on their fight for a Labour government, if we can keep the trajectory going Corbyn will smash Boris in a re-election before we know it. Don't get frustrated guys, they won a headline, that's all. Corbyn is smiling for a reason. We got this #JC4PM
Copy and Pasted!! Original post by Miyamoto Musashi so credit to them.

[Tripps]

Thanks Ian - fascinating. I haven't heard of this on the main stream yet.

However Mr Google says EVEL

Not really sure why a formal agreement is needed with the DUP. It will surely create as many problems as it solves.

What could possible go wrong?

[PanBiker]

Puts a different angle on things doesn't it Tripps, more squirm factor for the failed President May.

[Big Kev]

The DUP can't vote on English laws (due to the EVEL law passed in 2015) this meant the Tories only have a majority when it comes to Brexit and the DUP promised a soft Brexit in their manifesto (due to the border with Ireland). This means the Tories can't vote through their manifesto without the consent of other parties MPs (and it looks like a lot of their own MPs will vote against anyway).

Will they not just vote to drop EVEL? There was a lot of opposition to it from everyone other than England...

[PanBiker]

Quite probably Kev, just another hoop for them to jump through, they are quite used to U turns.

[Stanley]

Good posts.... And then, on top of all this, there are the real facts of the economy and Cameron's Catastrophe.
I note that the 1922 committee are reported to have told her to either resign or have the ignominy of sacking her SPADS. The Iron Lady did the obvious thing, sacked the team. Strong and stable......??
There is a way out. Since 2008 I have advocated a broad coalition like the War Coalitions that got us through two world wars. That would not need a new election and would get the best brains on the job if they could by-pass the idea of confrontation politics. We need bold thinking on that scale.....
The early morning news is that the DUP haven't come to an agreement yet but are pressing for the scrapping of the Welfare cuts. A member of the 1922 committee says that if this goes forward most of the Tory Manifesto will have to be scrapped and the Queen's Speech will be 'light'. Rumours abound in the right wing press that Bojo has his sights set on May's job but he denies it. The chances of May surviving the summer look slim, as I forecast, her party is out for revenge. It's tough at the top......

[plaques]

The blame game has already started. Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, her joint chiefs of staff have gone. From MP's who lost their seats “her terrible campaign and sheer incompetence”. The problem lies in trying to make the outcome look like it was a success and was part of the master plan to see how Labour really stood. Then with some slight adjustments at the top they would roar ahead at the next election. With our 'first past the post' system there is no compromising on policy until you look like getting beat. There may be a little 'time out' until the rules are adjusted to give them an edge but the whole media emphasis will be that the Labour surge is a temporary aboration that will disappear the next time round. The sad thing is that Blair's MP's will also believe the hype and stick to the view that things will come back to the centre and they will be in charge again.