OneGuyFromBarlick

Once again we have to read between the lines as May 'reports on progress' to the Commons. My assessment is that despite her upbeat take on the situation, nothing has changed and the talks are still deadlocked. The main blocker is that we have offered €20billion and the EU are aiming for €50billion plus the other obligations like pensions and agreed contributions. All the talk about the 27 'considering the basis for future talks on trade' is irrelevant, of course they will be preparing but the bottom line is that they are not going to move until they get what is considered to be an adequate cash offer. May's problem is that she has no power, she knows that if she recommends a payment somewhere North of €80billion there will be an internal revolt in her party, she will be immediately subjected to a leadership battle and in the ensuing chaos and delay the hard liners will drive 'Hard Brexit' through by walking away from the talks. I see only two possible courses of action. Either the moderates in the Tory Party assert themselves and speak up for a realistic settlement or the Opposition stop simply watching the Tories tearing themselves (And us!) apart and move a vote of no confidence in the government. Even the latter won't help because the chaos and delay of yet another general election will ensure a bad outcome in Brussels. Whoever gets power next is on a hiding to nothing as they will have to manage what looks increasingly like an economic melt-down. No wonder Cameron is keeping quiet, his legacy is chaos.
If you think I'm pessimistic you're right! I have never seen such a shambles and it's all completely unnecessary. We haven't shot ourselves in the foot but through the head!

It looks like the Brexit negotiations are getting bogged down in the more esoteric parts of Game Theory in group sharing. This branch of mathematics gets past human understanding as more groups get involved in trying to maximize their self interest. A simple example goes something like this...
A gets £100 to share with B. If they agree what A proposes then that's what they get. If they disagree then neither of them gets anything. Under normal rational circumstances A will make an offer of round 50% to maximise his self interest.
With the Brexit negotiations there are multiple sharing subjects with 27 groups looking to maximise their own interests. It doesn't need a great brain to realize that the sooner you get stuck into the negotiations the better the outcome will be. The UK 'Cliff Edgers' appear to be acting totally irrationally and are prepared to walk away with nothing. This may be acceptable if you are sat on an enormous trade surplus and zero international debt but as we are constantly being told we are something like 80% GDP in debt and manufacturing trade going down the tube. Hence the years of austerity and the light at the end of the tunnel getting dimmer and dimmer. A Toc H lamp springs to mind. So who are these 'Cliff Edgers' negotiating for? Certainly not for the average Joe in Barlick.

A correspondent in The Times last week was predicting that George Osborne will try to launch a new centrist party because he wants to get back into politics but the Tories don't want him.

"So who are these 'Cliff Edgers' negotiating for?"
There are only two possible explanations P. It's got to be self interest, the two choices are what is driving this. Either they are on instructions from their paymasters in the City or they still live in the 19th century, the days of an Empire on which the sun never sets (Because God wants to see what we are doing....) and a totally powerless underclass. The very worst thing about it is that the damage has already been done. Even if we reversed the decision to leave we still lose the institutions and would have to re-negotiate a new set of rules of engagement which would be far harsher than the conditions we had before. In addition we have lost all credibility in the world and will shortly be chucked out of our positions of privilege like the UN Security Council where at the moment we make pathetic attempts to 'punch above our weight' based on the past glories of WW2. We have no fully functioning armed forces, our public services are falling into disarray and regardless of how the figures are massaged we are in economic decline. This is the legacy of 2010.
Tiz, who the hell in their right mind would trust Osborne with anything?

Here's an interesting link:

The UK National Debt

Its becoming more and more obvious that the so called elephant in the room concerning national debt are pensioners. Clearly they haven't been pulling their weight in getting the debt down. Budget. Its totally unfair that hardworking people have fallen 5% behind against inflation while pensioners are 'nearly' breaking even. If we are all in it together and there is no alternative then pensioners must be made poorer if this country is going to survive. With the basic state pension at £122.30 per week Pension. the prospect of at least 2.5% rise is totally unacceptable. Fancy have as much as £125 per week just to spend on what you like. We will never get down to third world status if we carry on like this. No, they must be taught a lesson, either shuffle off, get someone else to look after you (termed social capital) or do without.
Next problem... Tax evasion. Well err.. We're looking at it. Terribly complicated but along with our Europian partners, which will now be delayed a little while because of Brexit we should be able to reach some consensus. Failing that we can always ask the US what they are doing because they are pretty good at tax evasion.

plaques wrote: ↑22 Oct 2017, 09:31 Its becoming more and more obvious that the so called elephant in the room concerning national debt are pensioners. Clearly they haven't been pulling their weight in getting the debt down. If we are all in it together and there is no alternative then pensioners must be made poorer if this country is going to survive.

Hey P. I haven't had a rise in my pension for 6 years. I'm doing my bit to keep the kitty in the black!

P is dead right, Hammond would like to send us all off to be put down, that would solve all his problems. And yes, he might even dare to attack the pension in the budget but if he does it will hit the Tory vote. The mistake they are making is of course that if you see a discrepancy in income between two groups the obvious answer is to reduce the higher one so that 'fairness' is re-established. What they should do of course is rein in vanity projects, establish a progressive Wealth Tax and stop pandering to their donors who are ripping us off from offshore tax havens. Every time they publicly legislate against them they insert small clauses in the detail to give the accountants and tax lawyers a loophole. Read Private Eye for some of the most egregious examples.....
Mrs May bangs on about domestic matters to 'prove' that the Tories aren't obsessed with Brexit and she has policies. Unfortunately everything she comes up with is either crap or sinks like a stone. We are watching a train wreck that was in slow motion but is now speeding up rapidly.
I'm glad that Labour has decided it's time to oppose. Question now is how good are they at it?
We are being treated to prior warning of a speech by Theresa May today that will put the most positive spin on the recent 'summit' in Brussels. In truth all she got was an assurance that the 27 will consider their actions on trade, something they would be doing anyway. The block is still the money!

Whether we like it or not, the largest part of the benefits budget is pensions and then housing benefit paid to pensioners. I know a lot folk think it’s all spent on unemployed layabouts, single mums on council estates and scrounging foreigners, but the reality is these groups get a fraction, a small fraction of the bill. No, the great chunk goes to pensioners and if we want to reduce the benefits bill, then we’ll have to hit the pensioners. If we don’t then the bill barely changes. All the data is online, so folk can see where the spend goes. It’s one of my life’s great mysteries why loads of folk seem to think the benefits bill is hosed away on the dossers and the scroungers and the immigrants when the reality is they receive a small percentage. It’s hosed into the pockets of the pensioners.

Reports today in the German press, not denied by No10, that the PM ‘begged’ the EU for ‘help’, and (my paraphrasing) cut a pathetic figure at the summit last week. She should get no help. The UK should get no help. We have made our decision and we should be adult and mature enough to accept it however it plays. If it is to our detriment, so be it. It’s called I believe, the ‘will of the people’.

‘’When the Swiss vote in a referendum came out against a deal with the EU the Swiss Government decided that would be a bad decision and they went ahead with the deal.’’

Tiz – I think this was the vote 2 or 3 years back to restrict freedom of movement. The Swiss voted very narrowly to do so – it was about 50.5 – 49.5 in favour. The vote also split: older German-speaking farmers in the countryside voted to restrict; younger, city-living folk voted not to. The EU said fine, because as a sovereign state the Swiss can hold and vote in referendums on whatever they want. But as freedom of movement is one of the four pillars, then this will throw the whole Swiss-EU agreement out the window (the Swiss-EU deal is a bespoke deal involving 100+ agreements, a pain in the neck for all). The Swiss Government immediately realised the impact the vote would have on their pharmaceutical industry (world class) and their research business (their ETH institutions are world class), and so as a sensible, strong and stable country, with a representative democracy, decided to put the welfare of their country first. So they ignored the ‘will of the people’.

‘’What we want is not another referendum but a U-turn on Brexit by the Government’’

Tiz – exactly. We are a representative democracy, paying and resourcing elected representatives handsomely so that they can assess options and weigh up responses and approaches on our behalf (the degree to which they do that is a separate matter). The only thing we should put to the people by way of a referendum that is in any way binding is the design of a new flag. But…..we’re way beyond that now and it won’t happen. The country is hopelessly split, completely knackered. I have no intention at all of spending one second in the company of any Brexiter, and they likely reciprocate. Nothing will overcome that. That’s why I’m off, as soon as I can.

‘’……negotiate agreements with the EU under the cloud that we are someone who is prepared to break agreements we have entered into…’’

P – true, and arguably the least of our worries. We’ll be trusted by no one and so best of luck with all the other deals folk think we’ll be signing. There’s also an argument that our credit-rating would resort to junk, as it does wherever anyone refuses to pay their debts. The lack of understanding as to how things work is astonishing.

Richard Broughton

"It’s one of my life’s great mysteries why loads of folk seem to think the benefits bill is hosed away on the dossers and the scroungers and the immigrants when the reality is they receive a small percentage. It’s hosed into the pockets of the pensioners."

Making the dossers and foreigners the target fits the agenda of the right wing tabloids, and the politicians aren't going to upset the status quo because whichever way they cut it, its a vote loser. I can see the state pension age going up again before I get there.....

I'm presently listening to wallpaper music waiting my turn in line to discuss a private pension I have (Aviva Pensions) , which is down to start early next year.

Bruff wrote: ↑23 Oct 2017, 12:23 The lack of understanding as to how things work is astonishing.
Richard Broughton

Absolutely right, Richard, probably by greater than 90% of the people called voters. So is democracy a good way to run a country?

Consensus politics seems to work within small groups of less than 150 people. Generally these groups are experienced at what they are doing and can generally predict the outcome of their decisions. The trouble starts when the population increases to such a size that the number and complexity of specialized groups makes any consensus agreement impossible to achieve. At this point human nature prefers a hierarchical structure that tells them what to do. Virtually all industry, armed forces and even our democracy is run under this system. We elect people to represent us and then place our trust in them to do the right thing. Its not surprising if people who openly admit that things are too complicated for them to understand are given bogus information will come up with the wrong answer. All that the referendum has proven is that our democratic system is living a lie. The people who we elect and trust to make judgements for us either don’t know themselves or are servient to other higher vested interests that have little concern for the electorate. The Tories main problem is that trust in them has broken down. They are at loggerheads with each other on what course of action to take and even where the solution is obvious as with Universal Credit it’s a case of “we can’t do that because its what Labour are saying”. Until they can reach an agreement amongst themselves then don’t expect an agreement with the EU.

I don't feel as though I am being 'hosed down' with money Richard..... I was reared to believe that life was hard but when I finally wore out the state would make sure I didn't have to lose my home and go in the workhouse. It was what was called 'The Social Contract'.
At the moment I am reminded of Russia before the Revolution and the Weimar Republic.
I am also reminded also of Yeats..... "The centre cannot hold"
Meanwhile the media barons make fortunes out of publishing lies and specious arguments and the social media facilitates all forms of bullying.
If the best politicians and planners got control tomorrow morning it would still be too late, the damage has been done and they would be helpless to prevent a social and political disaster. The public memory is minute and so they would be blamed for everything.

William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)

THE SECOND COMING

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.

The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

You're right, I am pessimistic.

Bruff wrote: ↑23 Oct 2017, 12:23 Whether we like it or not, the largest part of the benefits budget is pensions and then housing benefit paid to pensioners.

Bruff is quite right in saying that pensions cost the country more than any other benefit. Most people would agree that putting money back into the community in this manner is a desirable thing to do. They would also agree that 'free loading' and cheating the system is totally unacceptable but to make it an exercise in accountancy where everything that is not profitable must be eliminated strikes at the very foundations of society. Maximizing profitability for the few against the many is on the road to dictatorship. Achieving the balance between affordable costs and maintaining a civilized community is not an easy to do but brings us back to the 'good Samaritan' or walking bye because there is no immediate self interest advantage. Under the Thatcher doctoring pensions were decoupled from wages and set against prices. This was done for the sole purpose of reducing the rate of pension increases. Now that wage increases are below prices the Tories want to reverse the coupling yet again. Good accountancy but not very charitable.

The Governor of California was scathing in his comments about Donald Trump on `Today' this morning. It's good to hear someone in his position speaking out instead of hedging around the issue. California is feeling closer to other countries around the world than to the Trump's America. Incidentally, the USA and Syria are now the only countries not supporting the Paris climate agreement.

I put an attachment of some music on another thread. No one has listened to it except me, and I suspect Stanley, but that's OK - I just wanted to see if it could be done. I doubt I'll try it again.

In the same spirit I'll try to add a video clip, a particular favourite of mine - though I don't usually get on with Peter Sellers.

You can insert YouTube Videos into your post by using the last icon on the right in the editor tools (embed any video). This will open a dialogue box for you to paste the videos URL reference which can be accessed via the share button on the YouTube page.

[BBvideo=560,315]https://youtu.be/30M6szckb68[/BBvideo]

PanBiker wrote: ↑24 Oct 2017, 13:48 You can insert YouTube Videos into your post by using the last icon on the right

Yes - but then you are at the mercy of whoever put the clip on Youtube, and have to hope they don't delete it. I've returned to Youtube after a long absence to find that about 75% of the clips I'd saved had been deleted. If I see something that interests me now, I copy it to my computer or a memory stick - then I'm in charge.

Funny, I've just been searching the Lancashire library system for a decent book on Lenin, Trotsky or even Stalin. ( Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili.). So far nothing that I fancy. Settled on one on the Romanovs, Don't care much for Simon Sebag Montefiore writings they are more like historical novels than something that is more fact based.

P, try John Reed, 'Ten Days that Shook the World'. They did it on BBC as the morning book and it's on iPlayer for R4. Good post about pensions.... You've said it all for me.
Tiz, I heard that on Today as well and also noted THIS as well. Remember that his senate majority was wafer thin and now he has effectively lost it. He is an incompetent politician and a misogynistic bully.

P , an afterthought. I've bumped my article From Russia With Love' for you. You may not have seen it......

Later.... The GDP figure this morning is expected to be .3% for the last quarter, pointing to an overall figure of 1.5% for the year, a derisory rise that doesn't keep up with the economy and is actually a continuing slow down in the general economy. One other thing, can anyone tell me what the range of error is in these statistics? Economic miracle? Not!

Stanley. John Reed, already read it plus a couple of others which appear to be one sided American propaganda. Without looking at the overall picture you can't get a true feel what it was all about. Don't get me wrong the atrocities carried out by Stalin, Hitler, Romanovs and others including ourselves are something you hope will never be repeated. Will have a look at your 'Russia with Love' Thanks.

Stanley wrote: ↑25 Oct 2017, 05:50 Later.... The GDP figure this morning is expected to be .3% for the last quarter, pointing to an overall figure of 1.5% for the year, a derisory rise that doesn't keep up with the economy and is actually a continuing slow down in the general economy. One other thing, can anyone tell me what the range of error is in these statistics? Economic miracle? Not!

I saw a good description of our economic situation. `We are no longer treading water - we're slipping downstream'.

Philip Aldrich did an analysis of productivity in The Times on Saturday. The UK is abysmal compared with most other countries. Further background information is here: LINK Aldrich says the main reason for our being so far behind is the lack of investment both by industry and government. We are also way down the list when you measure the uptake of robots and other modern developments in industry.

Its the old problem, If you were making widgets with old equipment being delivered by bicycle courier do you open a factory next door to the one you've got and compete against yourself for labour or open it in the the country where the market is at a maximum and then go electric delivery. While we have cheap labour costs we will rumble along until it all collapses.