POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

I watched the second episode of the inside story of the EU last night which covered the Greek crisis.... I was struck by the similarities between hearing the leaders giving their account and reading Richard Crossman's Backbench Diaries and Nye Bevan's biography. Politics is like a swan as far as we are concerned, tranquil on the surface but paddling furiously underwater out of sight. I suspect this is happening now.....
The May plan of delaying a decision and at the same time massaging her Brexiteers is on track. Opinions vary as to whether it will work.

[plaques]

We are told that both the UK and the EU want to avoid a hard border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. The answer appears to be the 'backstop'. Unfortunately, trying to find a definition of the backstop and just how it will work is impossible. A typical answer is the backstop means backstop and puts the border in the Irish Sea. This makes it sound as though both North and South are being considered as one country and anything coming out of or going into Ireland will be subject to EU regulations, ie: Northern Ireland has just joined the common market. Could someone please explain it for me?

[Tizer]

Here you go, Plaques: LINK

For comment on Brexit, I'm reduced to jokes...

[plaques]

Here you go, Plaques:

Yes,that's exactly what I mean, no explanation at all. The trade going through the border remains the same? If we then have a scenario that all the goods manufactured in the UK are shipped to the EU via Northern Ireland we don't pay duty? On the other hand it would appear that we have to declare to someone that the end destination isn't Northern Ireland but intended for a EU country then we would pay duty. Talk about loopholes there are millions of them. World trade already gets round sanctions by selling to an intermediate country and then onwards to its real destination.

[Tizer]

Loopholes....I read this the other day:
Negotiating the Brexit deal is a bit like that Groucho and Marx joke...
Groucho: This contract is no good, it hasn't got any loopholes in it.
Marx: Never mind, just sign it - we'll add the loopholes later.

[Stanley]

May is pedalling desperately to sell the 'new, improved' version of the divorce bill to Ireland. Problem is that nobody knows what it is, whether it will be approved by the House or if the EU will allow it. Apart from that everything is fine and industry appears to have put their bets on a crash out......
The logical solution to avoid economic disaster is just cancel the application....... We are the laughing stock of the world.

[Stanley]

I've just heard a man arguing on Today on R4 for unlimited free trade. His case was that 65million consumers get cheaper products, the competition stimulates industry to be more efficient and any jobs that are lost are more than compensated for by better use of disposable incomes. All theoretically true but it takes no account of governments clandestinely subsidising their exporting industries to get market share and stimulate their domestic manufacturing capacity. We have seen this in very important sectors like steel, shipbuilding and aircraft manufacture.
Nye Bevan once said that we should guard the commanding heights of the economy and there are good arguments for doing this. Think of the nuclear industry, we have lost the skills base in installing new generating facilities. This principle applies to all the other industries we have lost.
I don't agree with unlimited free trade. I believe there is merit in preserving capacity and skills and whilst this might not always be the cheapest way in terms of preserving skills and manufacturing capacity it is ultimately best for the overall health of the economy. These core sectors in manufacturing and basic provision of essential social goods like utilities and transport are vital not only in terms of skills but in the loss of profit that is exported abroad. This is the elephant in the room of 'Free Trade' and is one of the basic reasons for the much diminished tax revenue we are seeing.

[Tizer]

I heard him too, but don't know who he is, I missed the beginning of it. Very narrow minded and probably a libertarian. He seemed unconcerned about the wider effects on real people. Cheaper products is not always good.

[Stanley]

Dead right Tiz. I suspect the man believes in 'The Market' which works fine for the top 5% and buggers the rest of us. Ask the farmers, shipbuilders, steelworkers and car makers to mention but a few. The criterion is simply 'Can the Lords of the Universe make money?'. I'm all for a modicum of protection and public control of the commanding heights.
Donald Tusk gets into trouble for voicing what so many of us feel. He is right, the Brexiteers who plunged in with no plan of what to do to affect separation without causing a disaster are the culprits and I forgive him for being human and telling the truth. Far too little of it about.
May flounders on towards the cliff edge......and later it transpired that what triggered Donald's comment was because he had just had a call from Theresa May in which she asked what the EU could do to help her which completely threw him because they have made it quite clear it is her place to come up with proposals..... I don't know what the French word is for gobsmacked!
Later.... All the media (including the BBC) are making a mountain out of a molehill re. Tusk's remark. Did anyone else hear what Bercow said when the matter was raised in the House? I warm to the man's common sense.

[Tizer]

Bercow: `I was not hitherto conscious that the honourable gentleman the member for Wellingborough [Peter Bone] was notably sensitive, that he was in any sense a delicate flower, that he was capable of being a quickly and severely injured soul by the ad hominem remarks of others.' Also he said he was “sorry for the gentleman” if he felt wounded.

Reading about more UK companies being taken over by foreign ones it struck me how the Brexiteers' `Take back control' sounds a bit hollow. We are in the control of other nations because they own much of the UK, not because we're an EU member.

[Stanley]

Quite right Tiz, the commanding heights again!
See THIS for a BBC report of Mark Carney's statement yesterday in which he said the BofE was downgrading growth this year to 1.2% with no guarantees about whether we will be in recession later in the year. He will of course be attacked by the Tories and the Right wing media for telling the truth. Remember that anything under 3% is bad as it means we aren't maintaining the economy.
T May didn't exactly look pleased at Brussels yesterday. Nevertheless she says there was progress. I think she means she has found a way of wasting more time until the end of February. Operation Time out is going well!

[PanBiker]

Maybe progress is now measured in whether you get the courtesy of tea and buns, more likely I reckon.

[Tizer]

It seems that the Press are hiding Carney's statement from us rather than criticising it. Of all the main British newspapers today it seems only The Times has mentioned it on the front page, and they've used it as the main headline. The FT doesn't have it on the front page even though the news was out yesterday.

[plaques]

A bit more clarity in the Guardian. Bank of England.. The downward trend seems to be because of the uncertainty over the Brexit negotiations “key parts of the EU withdrawal process had remained unresolved and uncertainty had intensified”. Even on Mrs May's return from Brussels she is in 'secret discussions with the irish Prime Minister', with so much secrecy going on its not surprising that they have down rated the 2019 growth from 1.7% to 1.2%. Although in percentage terms the numbers appear small this is actually a massive reduction. “The Bank of England downgrading its 2019 growth forecast shows that people are increasingly worried about this government’s stewardship of the economy...." This is the sort of news the righwing papers don't want you to hear. Another little aside is that the BoE is predicting that there is a 25% chance of the economy entering recession by the end of the year.

[Stanley]

I think even the gung-ho writers in the Tory rags are beginning to see the light and they aren't sure what to do about it. Private Eye said as much yesterday. I have been saying for a while now that the negative indices and reports from industries are mounting up. The only 'positive' messages you hear are from the more barking mad Brexiteers and there are signs that they too are trimming their sails. The bottom line is that the key consideration now is holding the Tory Party together and creating the impression that it's the EU who are blocking progress by not giving us any leeway. Disarming the criticism that is bound to follow when May's 'Plan' hits the cliff edge.
Also, it becomes more an more apparent that the government's 'planning' to manage March 29th is woefully inadequate and the strategies that they have committed to, including the legislation, cannot be completed in time. May rejects any suggestion of applying for an extension (the one thing the EU would grant immediately) and pursues shadows by going to Ireland and asking them to be reasonable and see it her way.
I can only conclude that this is a deluded woman with no idea what to do next beyond cling to power. Her Party Members are no better if they can't see this. The whole exercise is a disgrace and completely ignores the consequences for the PBI.

[Stanley]

The Grayling phantom ferry company is no more..... They are no longer a contractor. As well as Grayling this sad affair says something about the quality of contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit.....

[Tizer]

Another case of choping, by the man himself...
`MP Christopher Chope under fire for blocking anti-FGM bill' LINK

[Tripps]

The Grayling phantom ferry company is no more...

Maybe not quite as phantom as you'd think? I read elsewhere that a silent partner in the deal was Arklow Shipping who seem to know a thing or two about shipping, but have now pulled out.

I still think they'd have struggled to get it all going by March 29th though.

[Stanley]

Chope.... But his fellow Conservative Mr Goldsmith, who co-sponsored the bill, tweeted "please note that once again he did not object to those put forward by his friends".
David, that's true, Arklow are reported to have been 60% of the partnership. However, another factor was that Seabourne said they had agreements with the two port terminals of the service. The newly elected mayor of the French one said nobody had approached him and the harbour master at the English one said that it had silted up and a big dredging operation would be needed. Grayling's waffle about not being afraid to support start-up companies because the Tories are the Party of Business was just that. The man leaves a trail of disaster in every post he fills and should be sacked immediately.
May thinks she is secure now as 'ongoing talks until the end of February' takes care of the next 3 weeks. Time for the House to speak, demand an extension and push for a Customs Union that keeps us open to the EU. None of May's fantasy hopes are going to happen, the EU has red lines as well and theirs are well thought out and agreed in their parliament. She is a weak force acting on a massive and immoveable object. All the signs are that her hopes of uniting the Tories are failing as is the economic outlook. This is the height of blind intransigence and will lead to a disaster.

[Tizer]

I still hear and see Brexiteers claiming that the EU will crack at the last minute because they're as dependent on our trade as we are on theirs. If the Brexiteers looked at the numbers they would see that we are 8 times more dependent on imports from the EU than they are on imports from the UK. John Major made a scathing attack on them in an interview with The Times yesterday, including pointing out that many of them went to good schools and surely are intelligent enough to know that they are telling fibs.

The Sunday Express has discovered that those naughty Remainers are planning mischief. The rag has uncovered the `Poppadom Plot' - John Bercow and Ken Clarke discussing Brexit in a London curry restaurant in an evening meeting. Shock horror! They sat in a corner, ordered beer and food and then - wait for it - talked about Brexit. According to eye witness reports, after a long discussion on Brexit, Mr Bercow was heard asking: "Where do we go from here?" Mr Clarke responded: "I'm talking to Hilary Benn on Tuesday". And that's it. Honestly, it's a long article but that's all they can repeat of Bercow and Clarke's discussions. The rest is all about terrible Remainers, for example: `Tory Brexiteer MP Andrew Bridgen, a long-term critic of the Speaker, lambasted the meeting. Branding Bercow and Clarke "the Tandoori Traitors", he said "the Poppadom Plot is part of the Remainer elites trying to overturn the democratic will of the British people". Talk about a storm in a teacup, that's the Daily express for you!

[plaques]

It looks like some of the Brexit MPs are trying to make a break for it.
Guardian Headline...'Chimps use branch as ladder to escape Belfast zoo enclosure'. No wonder Mrs May has nothing to declare from her secret meeting with the Irish PM.

[Tizer]

Haha, at least the chimps found a way around the backstop!

[Stanley]

I listened to 'Week in Westminster' last night on R4. From what they were saying cracks are beginning to appear in the Cabinet now with some ministers saying that they doubt if there will be anything new when May returns to the House. That being the case, the plotters are uber busy and the sands are shifting. I am expecting to see new initiatives for Parliament to effectively take over this week, only 46 days to go!
Incidentally, it looks as though May's strategy of timing discussions out so there are only two options, her deal or a crash out has perhaps failed because what it may have done is put pressure on the House to step in and try to retrieve the situation. In other words a final attack on her and the whole process so far. There are some very interesting options floating around. Watch this space!
Meanwhile, Gavin Williamson goes all gung ho about the armed forces. At the moment his version of 'hard power' is sending our new aircraft carrier on a world tour to frighten the enemy.... I am not impressed. The first question that springs to mind in view of the recent dire verdict on defence spending from the NAO is where is the money coming from?

[Tizer]

At the moment his version of 'hard power' is sending our new aircraft carrier on a world tour to frighten the enemy.... I am not impressed.

Nor are the Chinese - as far as I know the new carrier is rather short of jet aircraft.

I notice this in a BBC report this morning on May's response to Corbyn:
Writing her response to his letter of last Wednesday, Mrs May told the Labour leader: "It is good to see that we agree that the UK should leave the European Union with a deal and that the urgent task at hand is to find a deal that honours our commitments to the people of Northern Ireland, can command support in Parliament and can be negotiated with the EU - not to seek an election or second referendum." [My italics]
Has JC ruled out `seeking an election or second referendum' or is May playing with words?

[plaques]

....can command support in Parliament and can be negotiated with the EU - not to seek an election or second referendum." [My italics]

. This is one of those complex sentences that almost defies analysis. Elections and second referendums are not something that can be negotiated with the EU. Therefore they fall outside any discussions. Also, Parliament has already rejected a number of amendments that would lead to an election so it fails again on this count. The only point that both of them appear to agree on without caveats or weasel words is we must leave with a deal.