CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

[Stanley]

That's timely, I was wondering only yesterday how the water levels were looking in the Levels after all the rain we have had recently over a short period. Has the dredging had any effect? In other words, were the old fogeys who blamed the authorities right when they pointed the finger at the lack of maintenance?

[Tizer]

All OK so far, although we haven't had much rain until now. That's a good thing, the work still isn't finished!

[Stanley]

Good luck with it. I was reading an account of the North Sea tidal surge in 1953 yesterday and thought about what you said about a 30cm rise.....

[Tizer]

More proof that glaciers are melting, this time in the Himalayas. The melt water is collecting and forming new lakes which threaten human settlements downstream: LINK

[Stanley]

All the evidence is there. We have gone collectively mad. I heard a quotation from Adams, the US politician in the Civil War who looked at the modern weapons and said that technology was taking over and that eventually humanity would commit suicide. Looks as though he was right.

[Tizer]

`Six graphics that explain climate change' - A simple and concise summary from the BBC web site: LINK

[Tripps]

Good to see that a conclusion has been reached in Paris. The outcome will ensure that temperature will not rise by more than 2 degrees, over 'pre-industrial levels'. This has been described as the world's greatest diplomatic success, from a summit attended by 50,000 people. The Guardian says - "Even the normally reserved economist Lord Stern was whooping." Halleluja we are all saved.

Here's a helpful link. Paris agreement

[Stanley]

I agree with you David. Of course there are critics who see the language as being vague but it had to be. The fact that 198 countries have agreed on a form of words and more importantly that a mark has been made in the sand, is a minor miracle and at the very least, a hopeful sign. Not least because all these countries agreed on the fundamentals that a) Climate change is happening. and b) Actions have to be taken. My only regret is that this comes at a time when our leaders in the UK have stopped supporting some aspects of renewable energy.
There was an interesting question on R4 at one point. What is the long term future for our gas CH boilers and what will replace them? Also, what does this do for shale gas extraction?

[plaques]

What is the long term future for our gas CH boilers and what will replace them?

I expect Cameron to declare that he has to make 'tough' choices. Like raising the VAT on domestic fuel. The pensioners fuel allowance will become a 'cardigan' allowance at a much reduced rate of course.

[Tizer]

As pointed out repeatedly by Professor Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Climate Centre, Manchester University, the quickest and simplest way to lower emissions is to reduce energy use. As he says: "Our emissions were a lot less ten years ago and we got by OK then." But he also emphasises that if we do this it must be equitable, the richer must bear more of the burden.

[Stanley]

Fat lot of chance for there being any equality..... Here's the future under this government!



Only difference will be that we'll be burning the furniture and floorboards.....

[Stanley]

Looking at the unseasonable mild weather, where do we draw the line between natural variations and evidence of climate change? We seem to be getting more and more of these extraordinary events..... Tiz mowing his lawn?! (Did you know that the printers name for that usage of question and exclamation marks is 'interrobang'?)
Last major flood in Barlick was in July 1932. Do we never get another? If a repeat is inevitable, when can we expect it? Those are the sort of questions that bounce about in my head.

[Tizer]

"..where do we draw the line between natural variations and evidence of climate change?"
We don't. It's like riding a bike over rough ground. Now and then you hit a bigger stone and get a bigger jolt. But when the ground begins to get rougher the jolts get more frequent and more uncomfortable. Let's hope we don't fall off!

[PanBiker]

This is one of David Whipp's photographs from his survey of the local drains and gulleys last Sunday after the torrential rain on Saturday. These were posted on the various local Facebook sites along with all the other postings of flooding in the local area.

How long until it happens again?



This of course is the trash screen at the Clough Mill site entrance to the culvert that takes Gillains beck under Walmsgate.

[Bruff]

‘’Last major flood in Barlick was in July 1932. Do we never get another? If a repeat is inevitable, when can we expect it?’’

Next week? Seriously, I was reminded of these matters when the floods hit Cumbria again last week and folk were commenting that the last time they hit a few years back it was a 1 in 100 year event, and now we have another 1 in a 100 year event only a few years later!

A ‘1 in 100’ year event is a short-hand, illustrative way of getting across or communicating a 1% annual risk. In any year there is a 1% chance of a Cumbrian flood; that it happens one year does not mean it won’t happen next year as there’s always a 1% chance. If this manifests for a few years running your annual risk might be revised up to 5%, or a ‘1 in 20 year’ event. Hence, Barlick’s flood could be repeated at any time.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Quite!
The Clough screen is well designed, note that if water rises to the top it still has access to the culvert by an even larger area of screen, The long term cure is to open the culvert apart from the section under Walmsgate..... God knows I have written about it enough! Why aren't all the local people who could be affected getting together and demanding improvements? Could it be that they are still not aware of the danger?

[plaques]

The latest update from the Security team on Fracking in Pendle. Most of it will be old hat but at least its up for everyone to see.

The government believes that shale gas has the potential to provide the UK with greater energy security,
growth and jobs and is encouraging safe and environmentally sound exploration to determine this potential.
With this in mind, the scrutiny team agreed to gather evidence on the practicability, likelihood and desirability (or
otherwise) of possible shale gas exploration in this area. We wanted to establish what potential exists in Pendle for exploitation of shale gas reserves and whether extraction would be in the best interests of the local community.
Our review started in January 2015 and, as anticipated, the topic attracted interest. We began by gathering information and/or hearing evidence from the following groups/ organisations, as well as hearing the views of local people.
• Local pressure group Keep East Lancashire Frack Free (KELFF)
• A member of the Craven and Pendle Geological Society
• Environment Agency (EA)
• Health and Safety Executive (HSE)
• Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC)
• Lancashire County Council (LCC)
• UK Onshore Oil and Gas (UKOOG)
We also drew on the experience of two other Lancashire local authorities who had already carried out their own scrutiny
reviews in this area. An interim report on the information gathered can be accessed via the following link – http://www.pendle.gov.uk/meetings/meeting/1837/scrutiny management_team at item 10.
The work has established that exploration can only be carried out under licence and at the time of writing this bulletin, there are no licenses covering Pendle. However the government has decided to consider issuing licences to areas of East Lancashire. In response to this, a discussion was held at our Full Council meeting on 15th October where the work of the Scrutiny Management Team was acknowledged.
Having considered the information gathered by the Team and taking into account a number of factors, the Council
has agreed that it opposes any exploratory drilling for shale gas in Pendle and will take all appropriate steps to prevent it
happening. This decision means that no further work is required by the scrutiny team.

[Stanley]

A big seismic survey was done in the 70s on the side of the A59 from Sawley to Whalley.....- Those results will be out there somewhere....

[Stanley]

Have a look at THIS REPORT By CNN on the tornadoes hitting the South and Mid West in the US. Cumbria is bad but this is worse. What interests me is that the unusual severity of the storms is being attributed to the El Nino Effect and this could well be why we have such a peculiar pattern of weather here in the UK at the moment. It's beginning to look as though December 2015 is going to be the warmest and wettest since records began.

[Tizer]

The Met Office was saying the extreme storms are about 75% due to climate change and 25% due to El Nino.

[Stanley]

And the increased variation of the El Nino effect is, itself, most likely to be a product of climate change due to global warming. I hope the noble Lord Blaby and his adherents are taking notice..... We've moved a long way past a simple suspicion, we are now seeing a pattern.
World weather is a Chaotic System and I think that what we are seeing is a lovely confirmation of the Butterfly Effect.

[Stanley]

One thing that is positive about the recent floods is that it has brought the possible effects of climate change to the top of the agenda. It is being taken seriously at the moment, long may that continue!

[Tizer]

The sudden rise in arctic sea temperature, about 13C above normal, is an unwelcome surprise: Arctic warming

[chinatyke]

The sudden rise in arctic sea temperature, about 13C above normal, is an unwelcome surprise

Actually it is the AIR temperature above the sea that has gone up by 13f not 13C. Not quite the same thing.

Global warming is a direct threat to biodiversity in all corners of the world, but nowhere are its effects more visible than in the Arctic, where the impacts of the climate crisis are hitting earlier and with greater intensity than anywhere else. Winter temperatures have increased by almost 10 degrees Fahrenheit since 1949; by the end of this century, the Far North’s annual average temperatures are expected to rise 9 degrees or more over land and up to 13 degrees over water.
Source: http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/prog ... _meltdown/

[Stanley]

I think you got him China! That's due to the abnormal northern course of the jet stream which has been giving us so much grief of late and is in turn connected to the very strong El Nino event off the Pacific coast of South America.