Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Whyperion]

With so many posts we will miss or forget some, still they are here for the record, which is good.

Meanwhile back to the rather confusing early Italian Arrivals (BBC Again today)

Coronavirus was already in Italy by December, waste water study finds

"Italian scientists say sewage water from two cities contained coronavirus traces in December, long before the country's first confirmed cases.

The National Institute of Health (ISS) said water from Milan and Turin showed genetic virus traces on 18 December.

It adds to evidence from other countries that the virus may have been circulating much earlier than thought.

Chinese officials confirmed the first cases at the end of December. Italy's first case was in mid-February.

In May French scientists said tests on samples showed a patient treated for suspected pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus.

Meanwhile in Spain a study found virus traces in waste water collected in mid-January in Barcelona, some 40 days before the first local case was discovered.

In their study, ISS scientists examined 40 sewage samples collected from wastewater treatment plants in northern Italy between last October and February.

Samples from October and November came back negative, showing that the virus had not yet arrived, ISS water quality expert Giuseppina La Rosa said. Waste water from Bologna began showing traces of the virus in January. "



Questions then - anyone care to ask those whom might no ? Is the same situation in London/Scotland/Manchester anywhere UK/Eire at or just after same time. Does that above trend death numbers in Decemeber in UK need further back investigation. Was there a death or symptoms increase in Italy or UK in January ? for the waste water samples can the 'strain' be identified matching to later samples of virus now on record ? If these are Covid-19 though, why so few confirmed cases at the start in Feb, one would have expected more even from a small start in December

[Whyperion]

Sunday Numbers 1,056 confirmed positive UK new cases to last night , Deaths up about 38.

Cases Up to Monday 1,279 increase of new persons, reported deaths up by 233. two days dont make trends.[/Quote]
Tuesday Cases Up 1,115 , deaths up 184
Wednesday
Cases Up 1,218 , Deaths Up 135.
Thursday
Cases Up 1,346 Deaths Up 173

Government claims the trend in cases is downwards and falling, I dont see it. Maybe someone needs to go back to school

[Sue]

I don’t see it either, and have been saying this for weeks. If you look at regional data, it is going up in a couple of regions including NW and SW down elsewhere, but we don’t count
Here is a nice account of the app, apparentlY nobody is having a lot of success
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-5 ... hare-tools

[plaques]

To quote Chomsky. When caught with your hands in someones pocket shout 'Thief, Thief' and point at someone in the crowd. The virus is still spreading 'its out there' , the tracing app is failing big style, the contact tracing is all a bit iffy so try to blame someone else. Re.. youngsters for going to raves and then keeping a low profile. Definitely 'Not me Gov territory'.
Numbers are just that numbers. Without a detailed breakdown and explanation they become totally pointless. An explanation of the detail is essential trying to put any meaning to them. Nobody knows if they are 'bubbles, trends, old folk. minorities or even extraterrestrial aliens. Confusion reigns or is it the whole idea behind the Thief, Thief promotion, Cummings???

[Whyperion]

Some thing Cummings' app desire was go garner more information (the government?) could use for other purposes such as who you interact for time with ( like your political leanings maybe, or religion, or 'crime' plotting, in realtity the older folk it would be who they did scrabble afternoons with).

BBC on Victoria, Australia
The government of the state of Victoria in Australia has scrapped plans to ease Covid-19 restrictions after a spike in cases was reported.
Victoria’s tally of coronavirus cases jumped by 25 to 1,817 on Saturday, the biggest increase in more than a month.
State Premier Daniel Andrews said the spike in cases meant that a planned lifting of social-distancing restrictions on businesses would be delayed until 12 July.
Household gatherings would also be restricted to no more than five people until that date, he said.
Andrews expressed frustration at having to reimpose restrictions, blaming family gatherings for the increase in infections.
He said "family-to-family transmission was responsible for more than 50% of the new cases, adding: "It's unacceptable that families anywhere in our state can, just because they want this to be over, pretend that it is."


For family in Victoria in Australia Read Conservatives in UK?

[Whyperion]

Sunday Numbers 1,056 confirmed positive UK new cases to last night , Deaths up about 38.

Cases Up to Monday 1,279 increase of new persons, reported deaths up by 233. two days dont make trends.

Tuesday Cases Up 1,115 , deaths up 184
Wednesday
Cases Up 1,218 , Deaths Up 135.
Thursday
Cases Up 1,346 Deaths Up 173

Government claims the trend in cases is downwards and falling, I dont see it. Maybe someone needs to go back to school
[/quote]

Friday
Cases 1,295 Deaths 128

So even BBC notes this is staying steady. Hopefully the death drop might be better treatments and better shielding of those more likely to have worse outcomes. With Northern Ireland actually reporting no new cases on Friday , then Great Britain seems to have the problem , admittedly more tests are being undertaken (some with be the 'had it' tests, others re-assurance tests, and others testing of suspected cases). Can that 2m reduced distance be recommended ? I wonder if the idea of cases falling is that the proportion of new cases to total known cases is falling a bit , but I dont think the new to live ones is.

[Tripps]

I note that the last two briefings I saw had no science of medical people at all - just a single politician. It's almost as if they think it's all over.

I'd rather have my information form a scientist or doctor rather than a spiv, (Grant Shapps) or a professional fact spinner (Gavin Williamson) . thank you.

[Stanley]

I heard an interesting discussion that suggested that the members of Sage were fed up with spending time being fall guys for inept politicians when they had full time jobs to deal with already. Rumour is that the 'Coronavirus Briefing' is for the chop in its daily form.

[Sue]

I heard an interesting discussion that suggested that the members of Sage were fed up with spending time being fall guys for inept politicians when they had full time jobs to deal with already. Rumour is that the 'Coronavirus Briefing' is for the chop in its daily form.

About time, weekly would be enough.

[Tizer]

I've been reading about Professor Peter Horby who, with a colleague, found that dexamethasone was useful for treating people on ventilation with covid-19. He has done much previous work on virus epidemics and tried to test out drugs in the previous SARS pandemic but it didn't last long enough for them to gather enough data. He hasn't had a chance to try again until this new pandemic and, typically, no-one would provide him with funding until we were into it. He describes how he knew this virus was different and much more dangerous than influenza or the `regular' coronaviruses. A virologist colleague with experience of it warned him at the very outset and then a doctor he knew died from it. He contacted his colleague, an expert on randomised drug trials, and that's how they came to set up the project to test an array of drugs.

Professor Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine Oxford Uni

[Whyperion]

no-one would provide him with funding until
Starmer has to ram that one home at PMQ/ Comittees
Could not see any UK figures on the BBC Website Today
But noting that the Anglesey Food Processing confirmed cases have just about doubled and I dont think all have been tested yet, the rate of infection seems high (higher than normal colds in a location?), and seem to account for about half the welsh increase in cases on the 20th.
Leicester seems to have a problem - did they have an asian event a couple of weeks back (when did Ramadan End? May 23rd so Cases 14day x double seems about right for progression). About 25% of the city's 2,494 confirmed Covid-19 cases were reported in the past two weeks, many in east Leicester ~( 658 confirmed). I think i would like to know how many and where in the last month.

Leicester City Council head of public health Ivan Browne later said it was "not an outbreak".

"There has been a surge within the city, and therefore we're looking into what that might be and where that might be"

What is the difference between a surge ( from a number presumably ) and an outbreak ( presumably from nil ), so the numbers could be the same, the wording different , the outcome, the same.

[Stanley]

Great news! The Orange Doorknob says the high death figures are down to too much testing.!

[plaques]

We are now moving into the phase where the 'R' number is being put to rest. The numbers will be chopped and diced until everything is 'local', confined to a special case or can be explained away using the right formula of weasel words. Major lockdowns are a thing of the past. "Its the economy Stupid" to quote Bill Clinton. Will there be a second peak? Consider the figures. The country didn't recognise the virus until late in the day exposing 100% of the population to infection. R rate= 3+ . Impose a lockdown putting large numbers of people outside the reach of the virus R rate slides to under 1, but is still out there. Reach a point where 5% have had the virus and may be immune from a second infection leaving 95% who could catch the virus. Lift all the restrictions and see what happens? That's a tough question to answer. Not Douglas Adams 42. but its the economy Stupid.

[Tizer]

Hugo Rifkind's weekend satire in The Times had Priti Patel telling the Cabinet `We should stepdown the message by changing it to `Stay Less Alert'. And Dominic Raab saying `I'm not sure I fully understand this'.

[Whyperion]

BBC Drops in a semi-feature
"Max, a psychiatric doctor from north-west England, recently found out he's already had coronavirus.
Several months ago he lost his sense of taste and smell, however back then these were not seen as official symptoms of the virus.
So because he didn't have a cough or temperature, he "followed the rules, went back to work and wasn't offered a test".
This meant the 27-year-old came into contact with up to 100 patients a week."

Now, there is some idea that "no symptoms" (whatever that actually means), give rise to no onward transmission (was that another of the WHO researches in need of peer review and confirmation?)

Monday 22nd June Cases / Deaths UK 958 / 15 (actually 5pm June 21st) Govt Data
21st June Cases / Deaths (cannot find) / 43

[Stanley]

Tiz, that's not satire! Hugo knows something we don't. More likely to be a reflection of reality.
Later, walking is good for thought. I was reflecting on Covid19 this morning. We see a great deal of reliance on 'science' to guide us through the pandemic. If you can agree that this activity is predicated on keeping the death toll as low as possible some questions are being raised by the relaxation of rules. If the virus is still as aggressive as it was six months ago I don't see how this relaxation can avoid increasing the rate of transmission. If this is indeed the case we are back in the cycle that has been true of all pandemics in the past, that the infection has to burn itself out. In other words, the dreaded 'herd immunity'.
The difference we see today is the separate scientific activity of chasing an effective vaccine. I can't for the life of me see any alternative to these two outcomes, herd immunity or vaccine. The question at the moment is what will be the reaction if the relaxation of rules induces a spike in infection? Sooner or later we will have to go back to normal economic activities, nobody has ever found an alternative to that, work or starve. After all the discussion, this is what it boils down to.

[plaques]

If the virus is still as aggressive as it was six months ago I don't see how this relaxation can avoid increasing the rate of transmission. If this is indeed the case we are back in the cycle that has been true of all pandemics in the past, that the infection has to burn itself out. In other words, the dreaded 'herd immunity'.

Look on the bright side Stanley, come August you will be free to go out and collect as much covid-19 as you want. One extra case in Hill St isn't going to affect the overall numbers so that's OK.

[Stanley]

[Tizer]

I can't for the life of me see any alternative to these two outcomes, herd immunity or vaccine.

That's because there is no other alternative. Although I would suggest changing the options to `natural immunity' or `artificial immunity' and by the latter I mean not just vaccines as we know them but other methods that might be developed for protecting us from covid-19. I'm not talking of drugs like dexamethasone which are only of use once you're infected and on the way to a ventilator but methods of preventing the virus infecting us. This pandemic has been a massive stimulus to research on viruses and immunity and we need to keep that going until we have new innovative approaches. At the moment we're fire-fighting but eventually there'll be more time for developmental studies. Who knows what we'll find? One day there might be a simple pill to take to prevent coronaviruses and flu. Or we might find a harmless bacterial species that eats coronavirus. Or a nasal spray that prevents all viral infections. Given some time, money and brains `the world is your mollusc' as Terry Pratchett used to say!

All politicians should be made to watch this video...
`The virus hunter who got Covid' BBC
`He’s one of the world’s leading infectious disease experts. The man who was part of the team that discovered the deadly Ebola virus in 1976 and who also pioneered research into HIV/Aids. Until now he had managed to avoid being infected by any of the deadly diseases he’s spent his life fighting. But in the end Professor Peter Piot of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine was struck down by Covid-19. Here he tells our Global Health Correspondent, Tulip Mazumdar, about his experience of the virus and his concern for the longer term health impacts doctors and scientists are beginning to see as patients recover.' 23 Jun, 2020

[Whyperion]

Boris treads a tightrope of choices between Virus reality and political pressure.
Legally allowing distancing less than 2m , but still recommending 2m it puts the emphasis on individual responsibility - a very conservative thing in a way.

With respect to hospitality opening up, BBC runs a website review of some industry thoughts and questions, it seems that Pub Landlords forget the restrictions and responsibilities of their licence, and for the ones that have diversified into eat out/in food it is going to be difficult for them to run a safe in-house food preparation and service area. Legal to open or not modifications that will not be cheap will need to be made, perhaps business grants need to come from the government ( basically spreading costs over taxation of the future - an unconservative thing but no escape so far as I can see).

"Single use menus, banning condiments, insisting on mask wearing - you are making people afraid of using a pepper pot. We have to persuade people there is nothing to fear," said Jonathan Downey, head of street food venue operator London Union and head of lobbying group Hospitality Union."
- Given that a major spread arose from the shared use in a staff restaurant of a salt pot (?pot?) this shows a lack of awareness by Mr Downey.
This is also going to affect social clubs, church gatherings where there is food, birthday parties and so on. Probably app ordering will be done in larger establishments so the days of a printed menu will go, the chalkboard will probably stay with the daily specials.

Indeed, more research, trials and hard work and perserverance, no easy solutions but with care things can move forward, the future should not be the same as the past, but as best as it can be made.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53065340 Long Term effects of people that have had the disease with symptoms are going to be a problem for the NHS, from mental brain problems from viral infection there, to heart conditions, and in this report the effective long - term and only repairable by transplant at present, lung damage.

[Tripps]

I don't envy anyone the task of managing this pull back from lockdown. There are so many ways it may go wrong. I've decided to take a very conservative (small c) approach. I'm also working on the basis that there will not be 'herd immunity' on any meaningful basis, and there will be no vaccine.

I shall take a lead from our leaders - and relax a bit, when the House of Lords meets again at close quarters and in the flesh. Did they pay them exes for logging in? Also I'll mix again when our dear Queen does so.

Cue parody of Vera Lynn. . .'We'll mix again, don't know where, don't know when - etc .

[Wendyf]

My stress levels have risen considerably with the news that visitors can come in the house...... I will have to start cleaning again! I loved the only in the garden rule.

[Whyperion]

Monday 22nd June Cases / Deaths UK 958 / 15 (actually 5pm June 21st) Govt Data
21st June Cases / Deaths (cannot find) / 43

Tuesday 23rd Reports 1147 / 121 Which is mainly the monday catch up from the weekend.

A third meat processing plant, in Merthyr Tydfil, South Wales, is reported by BBC as an outbreak area, however this is since April and Mid June and the numbers do not seem massively high so appears contained, controlled and mitigated.

[Stanley]

Roll on the day Tiz. I shall continue what I have been doing since March, it seems to be working.
But always remember, 'We know not the hour'

[Marilyn]

We (South Australia) have not had a single new case of Coronavirus for 28 days.
And we are only just opening pubs with social distance rules in place.